nate33 wrote:barelyawake wrote:nate33 wrote:Porzingis is the best player on the Wizards.
Absolutely. I have no idea why people didn’t expect that. KP and Beal are both top 25 players. They both will demonstrate that, this season. Both had extenuating circumstances (team conflict, Covid, misuse, contract) that artificially lowered their value in the eyes of the public.
Our main problem now is schedule. After the first few games, we hit a rough patch. I’d like another bulldog to ensure we don’t let that patch grind us down.
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I don't think Beal will fall off a cliff in production. But I do think he peaked 2 years ago and we will see a general downward trend going forward. There will be fluctuations, of course. He'll probably rebound a bit from last season's really bad performance, but I doubt he will reach new peaks in production.
The real issue is that his shooting has been in a steady downward trend over the last 5 seasons. He was never as good of a shooter as his reputation, and now he's not really a good shooter at all.
Agreed. I think the key for a possible Beal renaissance will be in the effectiveness of the shooters around him, and ball/player movement for the ball to find the hot hand.
I think there is a better chance for Porzingis to rediscover his outside shot than for Beal to do so. But if he does then the team has an unstoppable weapon. If any of one or two other players on court can also hit from distance, we can turn the court inside out, where outside shooters warp the floor in their direction, and players like Beal, Kispert, Kuzma score on the inside off cuts to the basket when defenders are out of postion, or when Beal springs free on constant off ball motion.
In this scheme the ball pops around while Beal runs patterns through screens, and the defense chases him. Bigs leave the inside to faceguard Porzingis above the key, he drops it to Deni/Monte who zips it to the open shooter, or fakes the pass then drops it to the cutter: Kispert attacking Baseline, or Kuzma with a speed mismatch on a big who has followed him outside. OR Beal coming off a curl.
Beal is a smart player. Aside from Porzingis' rare talent, this is the sole area where I see we have an advantage over many teams: High IQ. IF this team can develop chemistry, and Wes can gameplan a scheme that uses them well, we might be able to outfox and frustrate some teams. Beal is not quick-twitch speedy with his first step, he's not shifty with elite ball handling to fake out defenders. But when Beal catches the ball while he is already at momentum, he can carve into the interior where he has a number of wriggles that get him finishing shots. Once in there he knows how to drive into attackers and force fouls. That is where Beal has shown himself elite in the league, hitting quirky shots on the inside, racking fouls on defenders out of position. Refs still call contact on the inside, they are not calling contact off the dribble. If Beal develops chemistry with the ballmovers may we may see an uptick in his free throw shooting again. (This is an area where I would love to see him mentor Johnny Davis. Both are tough interior shotmakers unafraid to mix it up inside. If they get a little bit of space they can be a danger).
So. Call it Smarts and Darts: Kispert, Morris, Wright, Deni, Porzingis, Gill, Taj, Kuzma all read the floor well. Rui, Kispert, Morris, Barton, Wright all hit outside shots with good efficiency. Porzingis has in the past. Kuzma has in the clutch. If the ball ricochets to the open man til it finds the hot shooter, and teams overplay that guy, we can gash them by stabbing to the low post and frustrate them the way Princeton always did to beat the big boys in the tourney every year. Throw darts from outsdie, dart into the middle when overlooked.
It's a baby version of what Golden State has done: ball motion, player motion, shooters all around, find the open guy, or let Steph bail you out by defying reality. Only ours has the wrinkle that this version of small ball starts with a 7'3" guy whose shot is unguardable when on. Instead of shooting from 40 feet away, he is shooting from 10 feet up with the ball high over head on a jumper. It can only be phased by chasing your bigs out to mark him. We can play Tallsmallball. Play keepaway. Beal can play Chase-me, and do the thing that is an underrated part of Steph's game: attacking the interior with off ball motion. Let others do the outside shooting part, unless he rediscovers his longball, or if he can get sprung open with motion off screens.
Where this falls apart is we have no back-up for what Porzingis does, unless Kuzma is on one of his occasional hot streaks. When we go to the bench we need 3-4 shooters out there surrounding Gafford, so he can crush a lob dunk when teams overplay the ball and the passers find him. Its not bad, just not unstoppable.
Still, that to me is our X-factor. I agree we need a savvy veteran who can stabilize things and make it run. And here is where Tommy comes into play, I think we find that guy not in the NBA, but out of Europe. We are looking at a Euroball sort of player, and with the league allowing more clutching and grabbing, I think savvy Euro players are no longer at quite the disadvantage in trying to chase the elite athletes of the NBA. I think if we can land a battle tested winner from FIBA championships, we might see the system click into play better. Maybe we can sweet talk Marc Gasol to come back to us from Spain as a player-coach.
