Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[closg00]

Damn that sucks PIF, what kind of symptoms do you have and, when do you leave? My ex is French national and I spent a good 20 years going to France. Get better soon

[doclinkin]

I suspect tall passers will have an advantage since fouls are more easy to see when the ball is above traffic. If you can get a playmaking Big you are ahead of the game. Passes over the defense are harder to guard. I can see a metagame developing for a team that has two bigs who develop passing chemistry with each other. Post them in the midrange with a tall outside shooter, play monkey-in-the-middle over the defenders heads, and leave runways for the lob dunk threat. Run patterns and back-door attacks with your smaller quicker players.

When I think about it, I'd love to see chemistry develop between Kuzma and Porzingis.

Kuz seemed to value his role as a secondary playmaker this year. The triple double and near-triple doubles were boyscout patches he wore proudly. Yes he turned the ball over too frequently in this role, but that is what we are talking about when we say "develop chemistry". Efficient scoring, and predicting each other's movements to get an edge on the defense.

I can envision in my head the 1-2-3 of a ball flicking between Zinger, Deni, and Kuz with the crisp efficiency of World cup soccer teams.

Porzingis' reach is tough to match, his shot is high overhead. If Kuz could hit shots with the same efficiency he does in the clutch, if Deni could add a pick and pop game to his incomplete tool kit to hit wide open shots at least, or if he would dunk the way he does in lay-up lines and Euro games, if if if... then the gravity that Porzingis carries will open up opportunities for the rest of the team to have some fun. And feed off each other.

I can see interesting synergy in a line of:

Morris -- efficient scoring off the ball when playing with Jokic. Knows how to play a high post scheme. No-mistake passer.
Beal -- smart work off the ball, hits a better outside shot when he can get it after motion, good timing attacking the lanes.
Deni -- glue guy and necessary defender, the relay man in the middle as a tall passer. Makes the right play. +/- standout.
Kuz -- a multi-tooled offensive player, could be more efficient IF defensive attention given to Porzingis frees him up to crash lanes or hit open shots to the best of his ability. Willing passer who can lob over the defense. Active rebounder at the other end.
Zinger -- floating above the FT line, then diving to the iron for the alley oop when attention is drawn elsewhere.

Subs:
PG Wright -- subbing for Morris adds defense, if Deni/Kuz/Beal can pick up slack in playmaking.
SG Kispert -- is a fair replacement for Beal, adding efficient ranged shooting on top of the smarts to slip to the basket when overlooked.
SF Barton -- subbing for Deni gives a player not shy to attack. Better ball handling, capable passer when stopped on his attack. You lose the defense, of course. And size.
PF Rui -- in the Kuz spot he adds efficient scoring, if teammates know when and where to give him the ball. If you look at his shot chart he is above average from the field with any shot he takes, he just shoots way too many lower percentage shots, even if he shoots them a little better than most other players do when they have to take those shots. So. If his only job is to shoot and play man defense on the best opponent scorer 6'7" and up, you can call his number and simplify the role. You lose motion and passing, but he has gone on streaks hitting 50% from 3, which can open a game up on the right night. A situational sub unless his game has matured and he actually rebounds or can play team defense.

C-- I like Gafford. Maybe he develops chemistry with Morris? He's very much a pass dependent player, and until he can show even a midrange jumper at decent efficiency, he is tough to find a role for except as an energy sub. I liked the ultraBig line that Wes tested with Zinger and Gaff on court at the same time. That's intimidating. But exploitable with switches. I'd like Gafford even more if he could set hard picks and screens. Then he becomes a threat in screen/roll scenarios when teams over-commit chasing Beal trying to prevent the pass to him. Porzingis and Morris play off each other in the high post. Beal/Kispert runs a pattern through traffic. Gaff sets a screen. The defenders jump the route to cut off the pass to Beal, Gafford rolls hard into the lane, lob pass dunk.

I don't think we see Gaff/Zinger much. Maybe that is a play with Kuz in the Zinger role.

But really we lack any real back-up for what Porzingis does, because, you know, unicorn. (Chet Holmgren, Pokusevski, etc notwithstanding).

[doclinkin]

Really, the only thing I guess I'm saying is if we actually play smart basketball then maybe our execution will be able to overcome other team's better talent. And if we were better then we'd be better. That and more passing and movement less dribbling. For Beal especially.

[nate33]

Spoiler:

I suspect tall passers will have an advantage since fouls are more easy to see when the ball is above traffic. If you can get a playmaking Big you are ahead of the game. Passes over the defense are harder to guard. I can see a metagame developing for a team that has two bigs who develop passing chemistry with each other. Post them in the midrange with a tall outside shooter, play monkey-in-the-middle over the defenders heads, and leave runways for the lob dunk threat. Run patterns and back-door attacks with your smaller quicker players.

When I think about it, I'd love to see chemistry develop between Kuzma and Porzingis.

Kuz seemed to value his role as a secondary playmaker this year. The triple double and near-triple doubles were boyscout patches he wore proudly. Yes he turned the ball over too frequently in this role, but that is what we are talking about when we say "develop chemistry". Efficient scoring, and predicting each other's movements to get an edge on the defense.

I can envision in my head the 1-2-3 of a ball flicking between Zinger, Deni, and Kuz with the crisp efficiency of World cup soccer teams.

Porzingis' reach is tough to match, his shot is high overhead. If Kuz could hit shots with the same efficiency he does in the clutch, if Deni could add a pick and pop game to his incomplete tool kit to hit wide open shots at least, or if he would dunk the way he does in lay-up lines and Euro games, if if if... then the gravity that Porzingis carries will open up opportunities for the rest of the team to have some fun. And feed off each other.

I can see interesting synergy in a line of:

Morris -- efficient scoring off the ball when playing with Jokic. Knows how to play a high post scheme. No-mistake passer.
Beal -- smart work off the ball, hits a better outside shot when he can get it after motion, good timing attacking the lanes.
Deni -- glue guy and necessary defender, the relay man in the middle as a tall passer. Makes the right play. +/- standout.
Kuz -- a multi-tooled offensive player, could be more efficient IF defensive attention given to Porzingis frees him up to crash lanes or hit open shots to the best of his ability. Willing passer who can lob over the defense. Active rebounder at the other end.
Zinger -- floating above the FT line, then diving to the iron for the alley oop when attention is drawn elsewhere.

Subs:
PG Wright -- subbing for Morris adds defense, if Deni/Kuz/Beal can pick up slack in playmaking.
SG Kispert -- is a fair replacement for Beal, adding efficient ranged shooting on top of the smarts to slip to the basket when overlooked.
SF Barton -- subbing for Deni gives a player not shy to attack. Better ball handling, capable passer when stopped on his attack. You lose the defense, of course. And size.
PF Rui -- in the Kuz spot he adds efficient scoring, if teammates know when and where to give him the ball. If you look at his shot chart he is above average from the field with any shot he takes, he just shoots way too many lower percentage shots, even if he shoots them a little better than most other players do when they have to take those shots. So. If his only job is to shoot and play man defense on the best opponent scorer 6'7" and up, you can call his number and simplify the role. You lose motion and passing, but he has gone on streaks hitting 50% from 3, which can open a game up on the right night. A situational sub unless his game has matured and he actually rebounds or can play team defense.

C-- I like Gafford. Maybe he develops chemistry with Morris? He's very much a pass dependent player, and until he can show even a midrange jumper at decent efficiency, he is tough to find a role for except as an energy sub. I liked the ultraBig line that Wes tested with Zinger and Gaff on court at the same time. That's intimidating. But exploitable with switches. I'd like Gafford even more if he could set hard picks and screens. Then he becomes a threat in screen/roll scenarios when teams over-commit chasing Beal trying to prevent the pass to him. Porzingis and Morris play off each other in the high post. Beal/Kispert runs a pattern through traffic. Gaff sets a screen. The defenders jump the route to cut off the pass to Beal, Gafford rolls hard into the lane, lob pass dunk.

I don't think we see Gaff/Zinger much. Maybe that is a play with Kuz in the Zinger role.

But really we lack any real back-up for what Porzingis does, because, you know, unicorn. (Chet Holmgren, Pokusevski, etc notwithstanding)

I like the vision. I really think we need to start Wright though. His size and defense should make the starting lineup legitimately good on defense. Wright and Deni guard the best guard and forward, Beal and Kuzma are fine defensively when guarding 3rd/4th option types. Porzingis protects the rim.

Putting Morris on the 2nd unit should help salvage the issues with Gafford you mentioned. Gafford is pass dependent so we are better off playing him with the best passer on the team.

It would be real nice if Hachimura solves his basketball IQ issues with help defense and defensive rebounding. Chemistry wise, I like the idealized version of Hachimura better in the starting lineup. Porzingis, Beal and Avdija can handle most of the playmaking, so an efficient finisher like Hachimura fits in well. Meanwhile, that 2nd unit lacks much in the way of one-on-one shot creation if the offensive sets get snuffed out by the defense. Kuzma would be a big help as a bailout shot creator.

[doclinkin]

Spoiler:

I suspect tall passers will have an advantage since fouls are more easy to see when the ball is above traffic. If you can get a playmaking Big you are ahead of the game. Passes over the defense are harder to guard. I can see a metagame developing for a team that has two bigs who develop passing chemistry with each other. Post them in the midrange with a tall outside shooter, play monkey-in-the-middle over the defenders heads, and leave runways for the lob dunk threat. Run patterns and back-door attacks with your smaller quicker players.

When I think about it, I'd love to see chemistry develop between Kuzma and Porzingis.

Kuz seemed to value his role as a secondary playmaker this year. The triple double and near-triple doubles were boyscout patches he wore proudly. Yes he turned the ball over too frequently in this role, but that is what we are talking about when we say "develop chemistry". Efficient scoring, and predicting each other's movements to get an edge on the defense.

I can envision in my head the 1-2-3 of a ball flicking between Zinger, Deni, and Kuz with the crisp efficiency of World cup soccer teams.

Porzingis' reach is tough to match, his shot is high overhead. If Kuz could hit shots with the same efficiency he does in the clutch, if Deni could add a pick and pop game to his incomplete tool kit to hit wide open shots at least, or if he would dunk the way he does in lay-up lines and Euro games, if if if... then the gravity that Porzingis carries will open up opportunities for the rest of the team to have some fun. And feed off each other.

I can see interesting synergy in a line of:

Morris -- efficient scoring off the ball when playing with Jokic. Knows how to play a high post scheme. No-mistake passer.
Beal -- smart work off the ball, hits a better outside shot when he can get it after motion, good timing attacking the lanes.
Deni -- glue guy and necessary defender, the relay man in the middle as a tall passer. Makes the right play. +/- standout.
Kuz -- a multi-tooled offensive player, could be more efficient IF defensive attention given to Porzingis frees him up to crash lanes or hit open shots to the best of his ability. Willing passer who can lob over the defense. Active rebounder at the other end.
Zinger -- floating above the FT line, then diving to the iron for the alley oop when attention is drawn elsewhere.

Subs:
PG Wright -- subbing for Morris adds defense, if Deni/Kuz/Beal can pick up slack in playmaking.
SG Kispert -- is a fair replacement for Beal, adding efficient ranged shooting on top of the smarts to slip to the basket when overlooked.
SF Barton -- subbing for Deni gives a player not shy to attack. Better ball handling, capable passer when stopped on his attack. You lose the defense, of course. And size.
PF Rui -- in the Kuz spot he adds efficient scoring, if teammates know when and where to give him the ball. If you look at his shot chart he is above average from the field with any shot he takes, he just shoots way too many lower percentage shots, even if he shoots them a little better than most other players do when they have to take those shots. So. If his only job is to shoot and play man defense on the best opponent scorer 6'7" and up, you can call his number and simplify the role. You lose motion and passing, but he has gone on streaks hitting 50% from 3, which can open a game up on the right night. A situational sub unless his game has matured and he actually rebounds or can play team defense.

C-- I like Gafford. Maybe he develops chemistry with Morris? He's very much a pass dependent player, and until he can show even a midrange jumper at decent efficiency, he is tough to find a role for except as an energy sub. I liked the ultraBig line that Wes tested with Zinger and Gaff on court at the same time. That's intimidating. But exploitable with switches. I'd like Gafford even more if he could set hard picks and screens. Then he becomes a threat in screen/roll scenarios when teams over-commit chasing Beal trying to prevent the pass to him. Porzingis and Morris play off each other in the high post. Beal/Kispert runs a pattern through traffic. Gaff sets a screen. The defenders jump the route to cut off the pass to Beal, Gafford rolls hard into the lane, lob pass dunk.

I don't think we see Gaff/Zinger much. Maybe that is a play with Kuz in the Zinger role.

But really we lack any real back-up for what Porzingis does, because, you know, unicorn. (Chet Holmgren, Pokusevski, etc notwithstanding)

I like the vision. I really think we need to start Wright though. His size and defense should make the starting lineup legitimately good on defense. Wright and Deni guard the best guard and forward, Beal and Kuzma are fine defensively when guarding 3rd/4th option types. Porzingis protects the rim.

Putting Morris on the 2nd unit should help salvage the issues with Gafford you mentioned. Gafford is pass dependent so we are better off playing him with the best passer on the team.

It would be real nice if Hachimura solves his basketball IQ issues with help defense and defensive rebounding. Chemistry wise, I like the idealized version of Hachimura better in the starting lineup. Porzingis, Beal and Avdija can handle most of the playmaking, so an efficient finisher like Hachimura fits in well. Meanwhile, that 2nd unit lacks much in the way of one-on-one shot creation if the offensive sets get snuffed out by the defense. Kuzma would be a big help as a bailout shot creator.

I think Morris starts at PG, especially in the first few months. His job is to get the team organized and act as Wes' voice on the floor. He knows how to run the system through the high post, and the roles of other players on the floor. We need to wean Beal off the ball, feeding him open shots in rhythm could help him recall the skill set that made him one of the more desirable teammates in the league.

Morris has also demonstrated the ability and willingness to put up shots from outside in higher volume than Delon, who chooses his shots more deliberately. In this starting line-up we need one or more shooting threats to keep the lanes unclogged. I think it probably actually works better with Kispert over Beal, but we need our highest paid player engaged and productive. Re-juvenating his value could prove key to team success. (Even as an eventual trade piece if he asks for it).

I agree though in late game situations when defense is key, Delon will fit well with the other starters and we may be legit good on D. Maybe partway through the season we move Morris to mentoring back-ups. I think we get the best value out of Rui as well when we put him next to savvy passers.

[dckingsfan]

All of these questions on PT just points out that this is going to be THE thread for this upcoming season. I hope this thread gets "stickied" for the regular season.

[Dat2U]

It would be real nice if Hachimura solves his basketball IQ issues with help defense and defensive rebounding. Chemistry wise, I like the idealized version of Hachimura better in the starting lineup. Porzingis, Beal and Avdija can handle most of the playmaking, so an efficient finisher like Hachimura fits in well. Meanwhile, that 2nd unit lacks much in the way of one-on-one shot creation if the offensive sets get snuffed out by the defense. Kuzma would be a big help as a bailout shot creator.

Maybe but unlikely. Not seen too many cases where a guy suddenly is aware to things he wasn't aware if previously. Not calling the kid an idiot but either you have it or do not.

I've seen the game slow down for players when its moving too fast at first but awareness, feel and seeing the floor well... i kinda view those things as innate. Either you got it or you don't.

I don't know ANY success stories of guys who came in with poor b-ball IQ and became a valuable piece.

I called Rui a 'Mike Scott type specialist off the bench' coming into the league and low and behold that seems where he's headed.

[nate33]

It would be real nice if Hachimura solves his basketball IQ issues with help defense and defensive rebounding. Chemistry wise, I like the idealized version of Hachimura better in the starting lineup. Porzingis, Beal and Avdija can handle most of the playmaking, so an efficient finisher like Hachimura fits in well. Meanwhile, that 2nd unit lacks much in the way of one-on-one shot creation if the offensive sets get snuffed out by the defense. Kuzma would be a big help as a bailout shot creator.

Maybe but unlikely. Not seen too many cases where a guy suddenly is aware to things he wasn't aware if previously. Not calling the kid an idiot but either you have it or do not.

I've seen the game slow down for players when its moving too fast at first but awareness, feel and seeing the floor well... i kinda view those things as innate. Either you got it or you don't.

I don't know ANY success stories of guys who came in with poor b-ball IQ and became a valuable piece.

I called Rui a 'Mike Scott type specialist off the bench' coming into the league and low and behold that seems where he's headed.

Yeah, you're probably right. I'm not particularly optimistic about Rui figuring things out either.

I suppose if he keeps shooting 45% from 3-point range, then you can live with the negatives on help defense and rebounding, but chances are, that 45% shooting was a fluke and he is more likely to be a 39-40% shooter from 3. Hitting a mere 40% (on low volume) isn't good enough to offset his adequacies in playmaking, help defense, and rebounding.

[doclinkin]

It would be real nice if Hachimura solves his basketball IQ issues with help defense and defensive rebounding. Chemistry wise, I like the idealized version of Hachimura better in the starting lineup. Porzingis, Beal and Avdija can handle most of the playmaking, so an efficient finisher like Hachimura fits in well. Meanwhile, that 2nd unit lacks much in the way of one-on-one shot creation if the offensive sets get snuffed out by the defense. Kuzma would be a big help as a bailout shot creator.

Maybe but unlikely. Not seen too many cases where a guy suddenly is aware to things he wasn't aware if previously. Not calling the kid an idiot but either you have it or do not.

I've seen the game slow down for players when its moving too fast at first but awareness, feel and seeing the floor well... i kinda view those things as innate. Either you got it or you don't.

I don't know ANY success stories of guys who came in with poor b-ball IQ and became a valuable piece.

I called Rui a 'Mike Scott type specialist off the bench' coming into the league and low and behold that seems where he's headed.

Bruce Bowen I think is one of the rare players who was pretty terrible coming into the league, but who developed into a useful piece. But then, he was playing for Coach Pop and had 3 HOFers on court next to him doing everything else, so all he needed to do was become the prototype for the 3&D role. And foul, and play dirty, but act innocent. I don't think Rui has it in him to play dirty, and he doesn't have Pop to shape him into what he really could be. And yeah this team needs complete play from every spot on the court. Unless of course we get 3 HOFers somehow.

[montestewart]

All of these questions on PT just points out that this is going to be THE thread for this upcoming season. I hope this thread gets "stickied" for the regular season.

My received wisdom has been that frequently used threads never stray far from the Trade Thread Penthouse (because it’s at the top and also because it’s, well, you know). More to come, but the Elders of the Internet are aware of this request and mentioned you by name.

I’m not dismissing player rotation as a contributor to W-L but sometimes the in-season focus on rotation looks like accepting the scraps remaining after another offseason where the roster was once again remade just to have a fighting chance at 8th seed/play in, if only they would just use the right rotation. Maybe Hands can make a return with his real time narrations of-in game rotations.

[dckingsfan]

All of these questions on PT just points out that this is going to be THE thread for this upcoming season. I hope this thread gets "stickied" for the regular season.

My received wisdom has been that frequently used threads never stray far from the Trade Thread Penthouse (because it’s at the top and also because it’s, well, you know). More to come, but the Elders of the Internet are aware of this request and mentioned you by name.

I’m not dismissing player rotation as a contributor to W-L but sometimes the in-season focus on rotation looks like accepting the scraps remaining after another offseason where the roster was once again remade just to have a fighting chance at 8th seed/play in, if only they would just use the right rotation. Maybe Hands can make a return with his real time narrations of-in game rotations.

Yeah, I feel if it was sticky then there would be an analysis of each game on this topic. And truthfully, it is probably the only topic that matters for this upcoming season. So, there is that...

[doclinkin]

It would be real nice if Hachimura solves his basketball IQ issues with help defense and defensive rebounding. Chemistry wise, I like the idealized version of Hachimura better in the starting lineup. Porzingis, Beal and Avdija can handle most of the playmaking, so an efficient finisher like Hachimura fits in well. Meanwhile, that 2nd unit lacks much in the way of one-on-one shot creation if the offensive sets get snuffed out by the defense. Kuzma would be a big help as a bailout shot creator.

Maybe but unlikely. Not seen too many cases where a guy suddenly is aware to things he wasn't aware if previously. Not calling the kid an idiot but either you have it or do not.

I've seen the game slow down for players when its moving too fast at first but awareness, feel and seeing the floor well... i kinda view those things as innate. Either you got it or you don't.

I don't know ANY success stories of guys who came in with poor b-ball IQ and became a valuable piece.

I called Rui a 'Mike Scott type specialist off the bench' coming into the league and low and behold that seems where he's headed.

Yeah, you're probably right. I'm not particularly optimistic about Rui figuring things out either.

I suppose if he keeps shooting 45% from 3-point range, then you can live with the negatives on help defense and rebounding, but chances are, that 45% shooting was a fluke and he is more likely to be a 39-40% shooter from 3. Hitting a mere 40% (on low volume) isn't good enough to offset his adequacies in playmaking, help defense, and rebounding.

Rui just needs to be Darryl Morey-ized. If you look at his shot charts over time he has been steadily improving. His shots go in at a decent clip (from anywhere other than the right corner). He just has no idea what is a good shot. When run off the leftside three he drives then pulls up for that long midrange. And he seems to think it's a good basketball play to dribble to the freethrow circle and stop. If he could be limited to 3pt shots and shots in the paint, and taught to pass if the shot isn't there, he'd have more utility.

[payitforward]

Damn that sucks PIF, what kind of symptoms do you have and, when do you leave? My ex is French national and I spent a good 20 years going to France. Get better soon

Oooops -- missed this. Thanks. I finished a round of Paxlovid yesterday. I'm feeling a ton better. Still tested positive yesterday & haven't tested this morning. Meanwhile, my wife got it a couple of days after me. She too is on a Paxlovid course.

We spent 4 days in a hotel room in Sarlat la caneda. Mostly -- didn't leave much. Took off yesterday, stopped for a masked visit to Lascaux IV, & are now in Bordeaux. Strange days....

I lived in Paris for a couple of years many decades ago & am fluent in the language. Makes it easier, tho a h*ll of a lot more people here speak English now than back in the day!

Impetus for the trip was the wedding of my wife's youngest son to a French woman. We had 5 days in Paris, a couple of days in Normandy, & a bit in the Perigord before this Covid detour, so pretty great in all -- having said which I admit to being extremely eager to head home! We fly out of Paris/CDG on Saturday.

(Sorry for detouring the thread...)

[payitforward]

Rui just needs to be....

It's irrelevant. Nice kid, bad NBA player, awful draft pick, & the perfect illustration of what's wrong with this franchise.

Sure, it'd be nice if he improved enough to be part of a trade that brings something back. So there's that to hope for. But, that's as far as it goes. At least in terms of benefit to the team. Otherwise, for sure root for him, b/c he's a good guy why not? But as part of an "improved" Wizards team...? Forget about it.

[doclinkin]

Rui just needs to be....

It's irrelevant. Nice kid, bad NBA player, awful draft pick, & the perfect illustration of what's wrong with this franchise.

Sure, it'd be nice if he improved enough to be part of a trade that brings something back. So there's that to hope for. But, that's as far as it goes. At least in terms of benefit to the team. Otherwise, for sure root for him, b/c he's a good guy why not? But as part of an "improved" Wizards team...? Forget about it.

Again irrelevant to the thread. Have you always been a slow learner? Or is it a recent thing in your dotage.

Here, I will help you. You may post in this thread IF AND ONLY IF you have thoughts to contribute on how to improve the team WITH the guys we currently have on our roster. To maximize their value, either as productive members of the team, or as trade pieces, whatever reason you prefer.

Remember, every other thread in the board can be the "PIF says No" thread, where you can talk about how poorly constructed the roster is and how terrible our institutional strategy is, for everybody who wants to listen. Or how this and that player does not measure up. But if you have nothing to contribute on in-game tactics etc, then this is not the thread for you.

Think of it like this: this is the Coaching thread. The others are the GMing threads. Stay up in the front office fussing about GMing tactics, and keep off the bench down here, unless you have some thoughts about play style, synergy in line-ups, etc.

What team in history or in the league today plays/played the style of ball you like to see best?

What could we do to take advantage of the new rules emphasis that de-values ball handlers?

Given the players we currently have, what is the smartest line-up we can use to make them look better in a trade package?

With the players we currently have, what system can we use to increase the on-court effectiveness of our most highly paid player?

What load management plan should we probably choose for a 7'3" guy who is both agile and fragile? Is there a play style you prefer that is less likely to expose him to injury?

How do you envision using the players we picked up. Which would you start of Delon and Monte? What lines can you devise that would play well off them, and why?

The rest is irrelevant and will be reported to the mods

[payitforward]

Perfectly fair, doc.... I will try to improve my on-topicality.

[doclinkin]

Perfectly fair, doc.... I will try to improve my on-topicality.

Right, you know, this is the thread where we try to invent the alchemy that turns chickensh*t into chicken salad. If you drop in here telling us the lack of nutritional value and dangerous risk factors of eating raw chicken manure, well now, you might cause us all to give up hope. Giving up hope is not a strategy either.

But imagine you were Wes Unseld. Very smart guy, born into the game. The front office delivers you this roster. You're not an idiot, you know you are outgunned. You know you have few of the tools for success in the regular season, to say nothing of the playoffs. Your only hope is to try to outsmart the other teams in the league. Leastways that is the only part you can control.

(Cant' control: You can expect that young players will improve, some, for the first 3 years anyway. You can *hope* that veterans will improve. Less likely but the best players improve every year. You can expect that the front office look for a better match and better fit. But 'fit' for what? You have to see what you have.)

What do you have?

The front office seems to indicate this is your CORE entering the season:

Porzingis: stretch Big, mismatch for anyone when he has space. Injury risk, should be given space to operate. Best from FT to top of the key, or crashing to the basket when there is space underneath. Avoid crowds. Load manage him. On defense: drop coverage only, outside switch liability.

Beal: canny offensive player who can score in the spaces between players. Good enough ballhandler and playmaker, but not a PG who can break defenses. Small for the offguard position. When he is on he is a solid shotmaker. When he is off he still participates. Overmatched on defense, only full effort makes him a good defender. More rest?

Kuzma: tweener Big who learned to rebound well. Face-up game, not a low post force. Willing passer, defender, shooter. Willing = competent, puts in the effort, with fair to average results. Not scared of the moment, will take a big shot.

DEVELOPING players:
Kispert: overmatched on defense, but otherwise an ideal teammate. Plays off ball, very good outside shooter, good sense of timing to give passing angles on cuts to the basket etc. Probably limited upside but swiftly adjusted over his rookie season, a good sign.

Deni: euroskilled glue guy with a good court sense. Professional since age 16. Your best defensive player. Manages to help the team in +/- stats even if his own box score numbers are limited. Scared to shoot, but makes the right decision by finding the better shooter. Good enough as a ballhandler to bring it up court against light pressure and initiate the offense. No offensive game, not a great rebounder.

Rui: tantalizing talent, BBIQ stunted. Can make the shot. Poor shot selection, poor court sense. Does not pass, his only move on offense is to attack, often after the defense has gotten set since it takes him a second to decide what to do.

Johnny Davis: similar to Beal. Made difficult shots in college. Shots in the NBA will *always* be difficult for him since he is undersized and under-athletic, relatively speaking. Knows angles, good sense of timing, bulldog defender. Hard worker, should improve between seasons. Challenge is to put him in positions to succeed to re-ignite the competitive confidence that earned him a lotto pick. Have Beal mentor him?

Gafford: athletic bouncy front court shotblocker and dunk threat. No game outside the paint. Foul prone since he still jumps on every fake. High percentage scorer if he is fed the ball in good position.

ALSO (probably G-league assets):
Vernon Carey. Young Big who rebounded well in college, has not found a role in the NBA.
Isaiah Todd: stickfigure front court player who wants to shoot from outside. Bouncy, good attitude, has no idea what to do out there.

VETERANS
Monte Morris: known quantity, instant locker room chemistry, can be trusted to run the team. Overmatched defender. Shot maker from outside.

Delon Wright: +/- guy, overlooked since he does the little things: defends, passes without TO's, hits open shots from outside. Only does the little things though. Reliable bench guy to hold a lead or defend against a run. Won't force things.

Will Barton: Will force things. Unafraid to call his own number. Ballhandling attacker, willing passer. Can penetrate off the dribble. Can hit outside shots. Loud presence, tough minded. Willing defender, but vulnerable mental mistakes or opponents' trickery.

Taj Gibson: old junk yard dog. Possibly toothless now, but knows how to play the game even when overmatched. Smart defender. Undersized frontcourt player. Mentor for young bigs?

Anthony Gill: Undersized big with euro experience, smart, deep bench but reliable, good motivator on conditioning etc.

So. What is the best recipe for these ingredients? It's not entirely a compost heap. But what combinations do at least let you turn ch***** into fertilizer for something to grow. (To totally mangle the metaphors).

[nate33]

Nice breakdown, Doc. I have one quibble:

Deni: euroskilled glue guy with a good court sense. Professional since age 16. Your best defensive player. Manages to help the team in +/- stats even if his own box score numbers are limited. Scared to shoot, but makes the right decision by finding the better shooter. Good enough as a ballhandler to bring it up court against light pressure and initiate the offense. No offensive game, not a great rebounder.

I think Deni is a very good rebounder, and arguably a great one. I ran a screen of guys under 6-10 (to weed out the centers) who played over 40 games and over 20 minutes a game and Deni ranks 31st in rebound percentage. And there are still a bunch of centers in that list including guys like Bam, Boucher, Harrell, Okongwu, Achiuwa, Draymond, Theis. If you weed out all the guys who play most of their time at center, Avdija ranks 19th in rebounding.

Furthermore, Deni is more of a wing than a PF. He weighs just 210 pounds and spent about 1200 of his 1900 total minutes at SF (alongside either Kuzma or Rui). Most of the guys that rebound better than him are PF's weighing 230-245 pounds who spend their time closer to the basket where it's easier to grab rebounds. Deni does his rebounding while also being a true SF who is capable of defending on the perimeter and handling the ball.

Here is the list of non-centers who play more than 20 minutes per game who rebound better than Deni. I count only 4 guys (in red) who can realistically be considered a SF who rebound better than Deni:

Jarred Vanderbilt
Robert Williams III
Kevin Love
Julius Randle
Luka Doncic
Chimezie Metu
Kyle Kuzma
Otto Porter Jr.
John Collins
Trey Lyles
Larry Nance Jr.
Kyle Anderson
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Oshae Brissett
Pascal Siakam
LeBron James
Jayson Tatum
Isaiah Roby
Deni Avdija

So Deni is arguably the 5th best rebounder among all rotation-caliber SF's in the league. And frankly, even the guys in red above are typically the "PF" when on the floor. Deni has to compete with a center and another big forward to get his rebounds. Luka and Porter and Tatum are typically the 2nd tallest player on their team when they're in the game.

[doclinkin]

I stand corrected. Deni rebounds with positioning and not power or quick twitch athleticism that launches him above the crowd so I never notice his rebounding contested balls. Could be because he has boxed out well enough that they are not contestable. Still, in 2 years he has a total 8 games of 10 or more rebounds, so it never stood out to me as a particular strength.

[Dat2U]

You could make an argument that Beal, Porzingis, Avdija, Gafford & Wright are all above average NBA players and can help a team win games. So that's halfway to a solid rotation right there.

Morris & Barton are playable rotation players but slight negatives due to defensive limitations. I expect Kispert to fall into this category this season.

The huge problem and what likely pushes the Wizards to the lottery is the PF position.

Kuz has had his moments and he's not a wretched defender but his ineffiency is a huge drag offensively. Too many wretched shooting perfornances as the default 3rd option. I've come closer to the Payit way of thinking. Good guy but not a good player, especially when i revisit his numbers in LA. There's not significant difference.

Rui on the other hand is a good shot maker, when he actually takes a good shot but he literally brings nothing else to the table. He doesn't see the floor well on either side of the court and he's a huge drag in terms of the on/off numbers.

I think Vanderbilt (on the Jazz roster) would be a good guy to target if they were serious. A non-shooter but a plus rebounder & defender.

If you could get John Collins for expirings (i.e. Kuz, Barton & Rui with a couple of seconds), that's a serious upgrade as well.

Add both and its 45+ win team

Code: Select all

Name         Offense     Defense
Beal         Excellent   Poor
Porzingis    Above Avg   Above Avg
Avdija       Neutral     Excellent
Wright       Neutral     Excellent
Gafford      Neutral     Above Avg
Morris       Above Avg   Below Avg
Barton       Neutral     Below Avg
Kispert      Neutral     Below Avg
Kuzma        Below Avg   Neutral
Hachimura    Below Avg   Bad
Davis        Below Avg   Neutral
Gibson       Below Avg   Neutral
Gill         Below Avg   Neutral
Carey        Bad         Below Avg
Todd         Bad         Bad