Political Roundtable Part XXXI

[payitforward]

This is why I'm so focused like a laser and making sure the super talented immigrants coming in *don't compete for those jobs.* In fact, if they're as talented as we say, they will create jobs for everyone else, once we give them the chance.

but you said it yourself, we're in late stage capitalism. talent doesn't create jobs, money creates jobs....

How can anybody know whether we're in "late stage capitalism?" No one can.

&, no, money doesn't create jobs. Innovation for human benefit creates new industries. Growth in those industries creates new jobs.

That doesn't mean that economic growth overall must increase the number of jobs. Obviously not. Manufacturing jobs are dropping radically & will continue to do so.

For that matter "foreign talent" can take jobs from Americans with no "influx" required, since a whole hell of a lot of jobs can be done wherever you are.

...foreign talent supplanting incumbent americans in the talent pool floats all ships. it just takes planning/investment into broken social institutions to allow underprivileged communities to ramp up the catch-up.

Nothing floats all ships. But nothing wrong w/ your closing sentence.

OTOH, the rich favor a different solution. In the xxth century, we went from 1 billion human beings to 7+ billion human beings. The rich would like to facilitate a drop back down to the former number, & they know who they don't want breeding -- it ain't them or their friends.

[dckingsfan]

It is going to be interesting to see how continued automation and the intersection with AI will drive the labor force participation.

Another way to say this, those countries that optimize their labor force should outperform those that don't. There is also direct correlation between productivity & GDP growth. But there has been a disconnect between productivity growth/GDP growth and wage growth of the bottom 2 quintiles.

So, it seems like you want to do two things. Increase immigration for the talented and well educated and drive innovation in our education system.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

For the life of me, I cannot understand why people want to restrict immigration.

A disproportionate amount of economic innovation & growth comes from immigrant populations.

I suppose the idea must (somehow) be that people will leave their current lives to come here & collect... what? Food stamps? Unemployment benefits...?

This makes no sense at all. In fact, immigration selects for people who believe in themselves, people who are willing to take a chance, people who can handle change & risk... In fact immigration selects for all the qualities you most want! For godssakes why do you think America was such a huge economic & social success!

Meanwhile, judging from the usual methods used to restrict it, opposing immigration involves the idea that our current mix of national origins somehow (how?) represents a "good." That having more people of different national origins will somehow (how?) "degrade" our national character.

Please understand that this fairly ridiculous set of ideas has manifested itself repeatedly in our history. The Irish were considered sub-human. When Germans began to immigrate in large numbers they were resisted. Ditto Italians, ditto Jews, ditto you name it....

White. Republicans. The party of US not THEM or THOSE PEOPLE. Making America great is code for White is right.

Matt Stone and Trey Parker, in Team America, World Police put it best.

“America,**** Yeah!”

(We don’t need no stinkin’ immigrants”)

Or minorities for that matter

[Pointgod]

For the life of me, I cannot understand why people want to restrict immigration.

A disproportionate amount of economic innovation & growth comes from immigrant populations.

I suppose the idea must (somehow) be that people will leave their current lives to come here & collect... what? Food stamps? Unemployment benefits...?

This makes no sense at all. In fact, immigration selects for people who believe in themselves, people who are willing to take a chance, people who can handle change & risk... In fact immigration selects for all the qualities you most want! For godssakes why do you think America was such a huge economic & social success!

Meanwhile, judging from the usual methods used to restrict it, opposing immigration involves the idea that our current mix of national origins somehow (how?) represents a "good." That having more people of different national origins will somehow (how?) "degrade" our national character.

Please understand that this fairly ridiculous set of ideas has manifested itself repeatedly in our history. The Irish were considered sub-human. When Germans began to immigrate in large numbers they were resisted. Ditto Italians, ditto Jews, ditto you name it....

Racism and bigotry. Next question.

[Wizardspride]

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[Zonkerbl]

The comments on this are hilarious, lots of "last month I was an expert on first amendment litigation, this month I am an expert nuclear physicist" energy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/08/26/nuclear-fusion-technology-climate-change/

[Zonkerbl]

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BUT HER EMAILS

Can you believe the "BUT HER EMAILS" idiots elected the most evil spy in US history IN HER PLACE???

And he sold out our assets to be murdered so cheaply, too. Looks like all he got was slightly higher MAL membership fees. Well, that and Kushner got $2 billion from the Saudis.

[Wizardspride]

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Read on Twitter

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BUT HER EMAILS

Can you believe the "BUT HER EMAILS" idiots elected the most evil spy in US history IN HER PLACE???

And he sold out our assets to be murdered so cheaply, too. Looks like all he got was slightly higher MAL membership fees. Well, that and Kushner got $2 billion from the Saudis.

Read on Twitter

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[Pointgod]

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[dobrojim]

This is probably too much to hope for and raises issues that are profound but...

What if US intelligence agencies, knowing the risk of disclosures for anything they
gave to Golfy McBonespurs (they would have learned this quickly upon his taking office
in the unlikely case that they weren't aware of it before), if they had not given him
any real secrets that could be damaging or dangerous if later exposed?

PS - I have no knowledge or information to suggest the above might be true.
Sorry if I am hand waving conspiracy ideas.

[Zonkerbl]

This is probably too much to hope for and raises issues that are profound but...

What if US intelligence agencies, knowing the risk of disclosures for anything they
gave to Golfy McBonespurs (they would have learned this quickly upon his taking office
in the unlikely case that they weren't aware of it before), if they had not given him
any real secrets that could be damaging or dangerous if later exposed?

PS - I have no knowledge or information to suggest the above might be true.
Sorry if I am hand waving conspiracy ideas.

If the POTUS orders you to hand over top secret documents, you have to hand them over. So I wish this scenario were true but it's just not.

Fact is, Putin groomed Trump to be his spy throughout the eighties and nineties by being the only guy who would loan to him, through his Deutschebank intermediaries. Trump owed him BIG TIME and so when Putin said "BARK DOG!" Trump asked "how loud?"

That's why he sold us out for so little, because he's just paying off old debts. Whatever Putin asked for - a list of assets in Russia, maybe - Trump handed them over. Probably immediately. Kushner got the $2 billion off the Saudis because they wanted in on the action. I bet you dollars over doughnuts Trump has been handing secrets over to Putin since 2017. If that's true, he should be hung by the neck until dead. Pretty sure we're going to find out some pretty fricking alarming **** over the next few months/years.

[doclinkin]

This is probably too much to hope for and raises issues that are profound but...

What if US intelligence agencies, knowing the risk of disclosures for anything they
gave to Golfy McBonespurs (they would have learned this quickly upon his taking office
in the unlikely case that they weren't aware of it before), if they had not given him
any real secrets that could be damaging or dangerous if later exposed?

PS - I have no knowledge or information to suggest the above might be true.
Sorry if I am hand waving conspiracy ideas.

If the POTUS orders you to hand over top secret documents, you have to hand them over. So I wish this scenario were true but it's just not.

I disagree. The deep state is a real thing. Career intelligence officers cannot jeopardize the lives of hundreds of field agents and human intel sources easily. Trump initiated a feud with the Intel community before he ever took office. People knew what a danger he was. Various heads of Intel resigned rather than work for him, better believe there were secrets that got buried and stay buried. This is not a business for naive notions of presidential privilege.

Every president who enters office seems to undergo a shift in tone from what they touted during their campaigns. I noted it in a most pronounced fashion with Obama. He seemed sobered instantly in those first few weeks in office. I get the sense that in those early meetings some pretty ugly truths are revealed to most presidents, saying here is the limit of what a president can and cannot do. The most Obama could do was give the yes/no on robot assassinations by predator drones. But a president understands they are a caretaker of the office, the problems of the world will exist before and after their 4 to 8 years. And there have to be some very serious sober and even deeply scary individuals who work in the dark to advance our countries best interests. And even decide what those interests are.

Zero percent chance the intel community gave Trump secrets willynilly. No doubt they even fed him fake intel to see what would happen with it. Subterfuge and strategic planning at a sociopathic level is the nature of their job. They knew Trump was more likely to get special sauce on top secret briefings than he would be able to understand and make use of them. This is a man who insisted his briefings be shortened to bullet points. He was not going to be fact-checking the details. If they could misdirect and point him in the wrong direction while still doing the business in the grey places between things, that is the nature of their life's work. They fed him some truthliness, and some 'alternative facts". And went on about their jobs.

[Zonkerbl]

Well I should have been more nuanced. Of course the deep state can withhold what they can. They probably did.

It's just, Putin and his handlers know what they want, and if Trump demanded the docs putin told him to ask for...

Anyway if there's evidence of requests for that it'll be in the docs the fbi recovered, so we'll know soon enough.

[closg00]

I am not buying the current mid-terms narrative that Dems are closing the gap, I have no idea what to expect other than to expect the unexpected.

[DCZards]

I disagree. The deep state is a real thing. Career intelligence officers cannot jeopardize the lives of hundreds of field agents and human intel sources easily. Trump initiated a feud with the Intel community before he ever took office. People knew what a danger he was. Various heads of Intel resigned rather than work for him, better believe there were secrets that got buried and stay buried. This is not a business for naive notions of presidential privilege.

I agree with this...and, as drobojim hopes, I wouldn't be surprised if US intelligence agencies withheld classified and confidential info from Trump knowing that at a minimum he's a careless idiot and political amateur, and at worst he's an outright (and foolish) traitor who wouldn't hesitate to give the top secret info to Putin.

[Zonkerbl]

I hope you're right. If Trump has been selling US secrets over whatsapp to Putin since 2017 my head may explode. I wouldn't put it past him.

[Pointgod]

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[Pointgod]

I am not buying the current mid-terms narrative that Dems are closing the gap, I have no idea what to expect other than to expect the unexpected.

It’s okay to feel optimistic. If Democrats are able to buck history I think the canary in the coal mine was Kansas. Red state Kansas voted to protect women’s rights and the margin wasn’t even that close. People registered just to vote only to protect abortion rights.
That’s going to be the blinking red light for Republicans. These midterms should have been a red wave for Republicans but it’s looking like a light drizzle. Polls don’t have predictive power, all they can do is point towards trends but people still need to show up to vote. Let’s put it this way, if enthusiasm for Democrats and Independents is at record highs and Republican enthusiasm is low then it’s going to be a long midterms for Republicans. The falling of Roe was the spark, Republicans picking the worst candidates to run and frankly Biden and the Democrats actually delivering it makes sense that there’s enthusiasm for Democrats all though it still requires people to show up and vote.

[dobrojim]

Dobbs is the apparent motivation for women outpacing men in (new) voter registration.
They are p!ssed and rightly so, especially younger women. There has long been
a disconnect between the broad array of policies that enjoy majority support
and what GOPers have campaigned on but in the past, the GOP has been effective
in pushing the right buttons to neutralize that general state of affairs. I doubt
there is a button they can push to overcome the unpopularity of Dobbs and
of their increasingly anti-democratic policies such as voter suppression.

[Zonkerbl]

yeah it used to be the GOP was the one with all the one issue voters who they could whip up into an irrational frenzy and get to show up to vote otherwise against their own interests. Now one of their biggest single issue voter, whip crazy people into a frenzy levers is gone, and they handed it over to the Dems. So (as I've said before) as long as the SCOTUS remains in crazy person hands, the Dems are going to have that advantage.

GOP is trying to replace abortion with immigration and trans issues. Arguably they are all so brainwashed that all they have to do is start ringing different bells and the dogs will still drool. But I think at least that one issue weighs in the Dems favor - they went from not paying attention to politics because they all assumed Roe would never be overturned, to an extremely energized base.

I don't know if it will be enough of an advantage to win the midterms, but I do feel it's an effect that could, if the Dems don't screw it up of course, become stronger and stronger over time, as women experience the horrors that theocratic forced birth extremism forces on them and their friends and family, and get radicalized.