1. Anthony Davis (2020)With Dirk off the board I hope people give Davis another look, because at this point really no one has a better postseason aptitude to their name. Imagine 2020, or even 2018, Davis on a slightly adjusted (to make up for the spacing decline going from Dirk to Davis) version of that 2011 Mavericks team. As a playoff scorer, prime Davis (in a limited sample) has proved his acumen, and we also know he can be the world’s best defender. Two-way impact like that reliably translates across many different teams and eras, and I would comfortably prefer to build a title team around his peak than around anyone else’s. Biggest issue is of course the regular season, but 2018-20 Davis is a pretty strong baseline regardless: he still averaged 27 points per 75 on +4.5 efficiency, good passing for a big, and near DPoY-level defence, with a third place MVP finish.
Here Unibro’s take is close to definitive and thoroughly discredits assumptions about Davis’s “reliance” on Lebron:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2215651#p1006829682. Steve Nash a.) 2007 b.) 2006 c.) 2005Along with Russell and Walton, Nash is one of three all-time peaks players who to some extent defy box score impact. People more readily recognise that box scores can fail elite defenders, and in Russell’s case especially without available steals or blocks, but with Nash it is apparently much more confusing how a player could showcase all-time WOWY(R) and top of the line RAPM almost entirely off his offence without that jumping out at you on a stat-sheet. The other difference of course is that Russell and Walton both lead their teams to a title, and Nash sadly did not — although I believe he could have with some better luck in 2006 or 2007, or with some better front office decisions throughout his prime.
What Nash
did do was consistently spearhead contending teams in a manner that I feel would translate well across eras. Nash’s passing, much like Magic’s, is a brilliant magnifier and maximiser of existing talent — but that is not something that you find in the boxscore, or at least not until BBR buys access to Elgee’s passer model.
I also think Nash is an easy top eight shooter in the history of the sport, with a decent claim to second. His shot and shot percentages are every bit as good as anyone’s, they maintain into the postseason, and he created those shots for himself far more than any other top shooter did. This was a massive advantage in his time, but with the spacing revolution I think his gravity would take another leap. (Note: I am not suggesting he would be a regular high volume scorer in the modern league, which is a claim I think grossly misinterprets the value and intent of his playstyle; simply going more to his playoff volume and increasing the proportion of threes taken would already represent a notable jump and would even further strain defences that have become hyper-aware of the effects of that type of spacing.)
I came across plenty of good commentary reading through past projects and RealGM threads — I may re-post some later to drive conversation — but I am not sure Nash’s peak case is all that mysterious anymore. That Backpicks profile was what, five years ago now? Everyone should have seen those arguments and statistics, even if not everyone is inclined to accept them. His downside is that he is a small guard with at best uninspiring defence, and although that was hardly disastrous in his time, he would certainly be picked on more today (that said, his play awareness should keep him well above the Trae/Isaiah/Lillard tier of abject liability). Like I said when we were comparing him with Jokic, it seems intuitively easier to build a defence with a weak guard than it is to build a defence with a weak big, even if that big provides a higher baseline defensive value than the guard (sadly, running a team of slower-footed giants does not seem to stack as well as you may hope, and teams have yet to develop the approach of abandoning small guards entirely). I think the 2006 Suns have a strong shot at making it past the Mavericks (at which point they would be up against notorious pnr defender Shaq) if they simply had a healthy Kurt Thomas (I encourage people to check Phoenix’s net ratings with Nash on-court and Amar’e off-court; not exactly struggling, are they?). Nash does not need stars or hot shooting or favourable matchups to do well in the postseason; at his peak, all he really needed was some healthy support.
3. Kevin Durant (2017)
Best wing remaining on the board. In contention for best regular season scorer ever, or at least top three. I honestly hate this vote but no one else exactly has a winning argument either. Ewing comes closest but there are enough questions around him that I guess I still should give the advantage to Durant. I appreciate the case for Harden in a vacuum, but with Nash on the board still I am not looking at other guards. On that note, the extent to which Durant scales well next to ball dominant players is relatively overrated — too in love with isolation plays and his own limited ballhandling — but he did at least try to mesh well in 2017, and those flaws in his scaling at least somewhat counter the idea of him
needing a regular season boost from all-time point guards. What he
does need is constant coddling.
Something seems to have improved in his scoring resilience since joining Golden State, even when Steph was off-court, so I will give him that. Fingers crossed that Davis and Nash get their due attention next.
Comments on 1990 Ewing (my next vote):
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2221972&p=101037106#p101034004Critical comments on Moses:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2221330&start=40#p100995820In my eyes, several all-time centre peaks could have won a dominant title with the 1983 76ers, and I have yet to see a real case for what makes him qualifiedly better than other centres on the board outside of the fact that he was the one present to do it.
Critical comments on Paul:
Regarding Paul, I think his regular season “impact” is moderately overstated (not that anyone already voting for him or intending to vote for him in the next couple of ballots is likely to agree), and I see him as an even more extreme Embiid case in the postseason (again, not that his current voting bloc seems likely to care much). I am not saying he is an outright “choker” in the postseason when healthy (which itself is hardly a given), and there is excusable context behind most and arguably all of those losses, but if he receives all this credit for how good he can look in the regular season, then either we need to think about whether that quality is exaggerated, or we need to consider why that is not carrying over to the postseason and why teams are routinely winning four straight or four of five against him. If it is a flaw in his leadership or his approach or his adaptability, then maybe there is at least some element of truth to those pundits who scoff at the idea he could ever be trusted to captain a team to a championship.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2222404#p101041759If I were to vote for Paul — guessing he is admitted before that happens, but if Nash and Davis receive a quick groundswell of support, who knows — I would back 2008/09. Yes, he improved as a defender on the Clippers, or at least in his ability to captain a defence. I do not value his postseason defence too highly anyway, and I would still prefer the period where he was at his physical peak and by reputation the best point guard in the league, rather than one where he was being outperformed in the postseason by a player I have even less intent to support (and it was not just 2014, because Westbrook has plenty of nice “impact” in 2016 and 2017 too over a larger sample than Paul).
Major props for being braver than me and putting Ewing above Durant. 
