Offensive peak: McGrady vs Drexler

[durantbird]

Who do you think had a higher offensive peak?

[tsherkin]

For a single-season peak, I struggle to think of a pro-Drexler argument where offense is concerned. If you consider defense at the same time, it gets maybe a little more interesting, though it's also hard to separate out the impact of context. Drexler was afforded much better teams to play on compared to McGrady, and Tracy was actually a pretty good defender with the Raptors when he wasn't leading the league in usage.

He was a +4.5% rTS guy (109 TS+) in that 02-03 season. Led the league in usage at 35.2%, led the league in OWS (13.2) on a 42-win team. 30.3 PER, led the league. .262 WS/48, league-high. +9.8 OBPM, league-high. Second in the league in oRAPM behind Dirk.

I'm about to focus on OBPM, but obviously it is just one stat, and one which has its own pros and cons. But I do want to examine the achievement, since we're speaking specifically of offense and specifically of peak.

Keep in mind, there are 3 seasons in league history of 2,000+ minutes and 9.5+ OBPM. McGrady's 9.8 is second-highest on that list, ahead of 09 Lebron's 9.5, and behind 2016 Steph's 10.3. There are 9 player-seasons of +9.0 or better with those 2,000 minutes, just to open it up to a slightly less arbitrary range. Lebron's on it 3 times, and Jokic is on it twice. No one else is on it more than once.

2016 Steph
03 McGrady
09 Lebron
19 Harden
13 Lebron
22 Jokic
21 Jokic
90 MJ
10 Lebron

Just for reference.

Drexler's career-high is +6.8 OBPM, from the 92 season when his Blazers lost to MJ in the Finals. It was part of a stretch of 5-straight seasons of +5.0 or better, and six seasons in eight. Never managed double-digit OWS. Never exceeded 24.1 PER. rTS a little lower in his peak seasons than McGrady. Never exceeded 27.2 ppg. Never exceeded 28.7 USG. Topped out at 29.9% AST and 12.4% TOV, against 03 McGrady's 30.0% USG and 8.4% TOV.

Anyway, blah blah blah numbers.

Drexler wasn't as good a scorer as 03 McGrady. He wasn't as good at protecting the ball, and he certainly never faced the sort of encroaching, suffocating defense which McGrady was dealing with in 03, let alone while producing at that level. So for me, this is an easy one. If you change the word "peak" to "prime," then we start to have a more open discussion on the subject, because it was an extraordinarily sharp peak for McGrady and he was far more mortal in every other even healthy season he played. Never again at that level. He ruined his body pulling that off and trying to do so again the year after. Prime to prime, he still has a pretty good argument against Drexler as an offensive player, but there isn't the same level of separation as there is for a one-off peak season.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I have to go Mcgrady here for 1 year and 3 year peaks.

Tracy McGrady in ‘03 had a 9.9 box-creation, so he really was a mega-playmaker for his era.

Also in 03, McGrady put up

▫️33.4 Inflation Adjusted pts/75
▫️5.4 ast/75
▫️6.4 reb/75
▫️ 1.7 stl/75
▫️+4.5 rTS%
▫️+13 Net Swing

McGrady's 03 season is akin to Kobe's 06 season in many ways, in terms of offensive load, impact and how they floor-raised underwhelming rosters. They also tend to rate out similarly well in impact metrics offensively.

While it is not a very efficient shot, McGrady was a terrifc long-midrange shot-maker, and that catapults my belief in his resiliency in the PS. McGrady shot 43.1% on long 2’s. Heck, T-Mac’s shot 38.6% from 3 on 6 attempts a game, so he was a special 3-point shooter for his era as well.

With McGrady on the Magichad a 109.3 ORTG

With McGrady off the Magic had a 91.8 ORTG

That is one of the biggest shifts in offensive rating you will ever see without a single player, a literal 17.5 difference in ORTG.


And its not like he wasn't impressive in the PS.

Per 75 Possessions: 32.5 Points on +5.5 relative-to-opponent average true shooting
4.4 Assists, with an 8.1 Offensive Box Creation

Drexler to my knowledge never had as dominant of an offensive series as McGrady did when considering how good that Pistons defense was.

Check out this article if you would like to learn more about McGrady's insane year. For his age, it stacks up against just about anyone ever https://fiveboroughdispatch.wordpress.com/2022/05/31/how-good-all-time-was-2021-22-luka-doncic-on-offense-for-his-age/




Even outside of McGrady's historic 1-year peak, I think his 3-year peak offensively is ahead as well.

Drexler peaked around 92-94, at about an Inflation Adjusted 24.7 pts per 75 on a rTS% of 2.9% in the PS. He also had a really good PlayVal (estimate of playmaking value of 1.1).

However, those numbers don't really stick out when compared to McGrady. McGrady from 03-05, in the PS, averaged an Inflation Adjusted 31.4 pts per 75 (rTS% of 2.6%) and also had a PS PlayVal of 1.1.

I think McGrady could do what Drexler did, on higher volume, thanks in part due to a better handle that allowed him to navigate around the court a bit better. McGrady had an offensive load of about 51.7 these years compared to Drexler being in the 43.4 range (offensive load, an estimate of the number of a player a player is “directly involved” in on offense every 100 possessions). I think McGrady could stand to be a bit more involved in the offense because like I said, he could do more with the ball in his hands as a ball-handler, and I also think he is arguably a better passer than Clyde. TBF, McGrady also had a weaker team, so he had to be tasked with doing more if they were to reach their ceiling.

The one thing Clyde had going for him is longer PS run samples, but I feel confident enough in McGrady's skillset to favor him in this comparison and believe what we saw was not a fluke.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

I remember Drexler as very much being co-pointguard with Porter. I don't remember McGrady as a passer but his assists are also good but not quite as good as Drexler.

Drexler's. Turnovers are not that much higher than McGrady's. Drexler drives into the pack slightly out of control and then kicks the ball out like a drive and kick point guard. I remember McGrady as more of a finnesse player doing subtle things.

[tsherkin]

I don't remember McGrady as a passer but his assists are also good but not quite as good as Drexler.

This is definitely false. I think LukatheGoat already covered the box creation, but Drexler in his best season still didn't get to where McGrady was in 03. And outside of that season, he never again approached what he did in 92. McGrady has seven seasons better than Drexler's #2 season in box creation, has two of them at 11+ (so, better than Drexler's best) and 3 at 9 or better.

There isn't a statistical argument for this, and even aesthetically, watching him in Orlando, Houston and even Detroit, it's clear that McGrady was a notably superior ball-handler and passer. There is no real argument here.

Not really close.

Drexler's. Turnovers are not that much higher than McGrady's.

This is also false. Their TOV% speaks for itself.

[SpreeS]

How do we rate Drexler OReb with 3.7 per game? This is crazy number for SG, who gives 4 extra possesions

[No-more-rings]

Offensive peak is McGrady easily.

[tsherkin]

How do we rate Drexler OReb with 3.7 per game? This is crazy number for SG, who gives 4 extra possesions

Impressive, but not enough to bridge the rest of the offensive gap. Also, I don't think 1989 was his offensive peak anyway.

[dooki667]

Clyde tov%
91-92 12.4
92-93 10.9
93-94 11.6

T mac
02-03 8.4
03-04 9.1
04-05 9.5

[Chronz]

Drexler as a 2 behind dream had that insanely efficient playoff run that led to a chip. That's the argument, it's prolly tmac

[No-more-rings]

Drexler as a 2 behind dream had that insanely efficient playoff run that led to a chip. That's the argument, it's prolly tmac

How is Drexler averaging 21 points and 5 assists as a 2nd option an argument over Tmac?

[tsherkin]

Drexler as a 2 behind dream had that insanely efficient playoff run that led to a chip. That's the argument, it's prolly tmac

What? That was in 1995, at 32, not at his offensive peak.

[rk2023]

https://thedyspatch.com/2022/05/31/how-good-all-time-was-2021-22-luka-doncic-on-offense-for-his-age/?preview_id=7677&preview_nonce=9b2a701c1c&preview=true&_thumbnail_id=7735

In an article I previously wrote, I described TMac's offensive game and value before.

Some stats:

33.4 Adjusted Points (leading the league) on +4.5 relative-to-league average true shooting
5.4 Assists, along with a 9.9 Offensive Box Creation and 7.6 Passer Rating
6.4 Rebounds (1.6 coming on the offensive end)
5.8 BackPicks Box Plus-Minus, 4.4 Augmented Plus-Minus / Game (4th and 5th in the league)

Posting one of the highest possessional scoring rates in NBA history, McGrady demonstrated a versatile scoring arsenal – leveraging his size and quickness for a long mid-range and 3-Point driven shot diet (57.7% of his total field-goal attempts, shooting 43.1 and 38.6 % on these level shots respectively) with stellar low post play and basket drives in addition. In a situation with relatively poor spacing and offensive support, McGrady was often responsible for creating possessions. His volume scoring gave him significant attention through doubles – where he showed a solid ability to pass out of them – dishing assists over the heads of defenders (the hyperlinked clip shows career highlights, including his 2002-03 season). How much McGrady was responsible directly impacted his team’s situation. With a 105.2 rated team offensive (good for 10th in the league), 74% of this production came with McGrady on – where the team posted a 109.3 offense (5.7 points above league average). In the other 26%, the Magic posted only a 91.8 offensive rating.

This goes to show how much of a load McGrady shouldered, where he ultimately brought the Magic to the first round of the playoffs in an 8 vs. 1 seed matchup against the 2002-03 Pistons (whom were anchored by a 99.9 rated team defense). While McGrady had some struggles down the stretch, he still performed well in totality. His averages in the series, listed below, show a somewhat decline in creation, but this can certainly be explored further when considering an inferior (for star standards) supporting cast and the opponent faced. In a better situation, there would certainly be a chance McGrady could engine a championship level offense.

32.5 Points on +5.5 relative-to-opponent average true shooting
4.4 Assists, with an 8.1 Offensive Box Creation and 5.8 Passer Rating
6.2 Rebounds (1.4 coming on the offensive end)
5.0 BackPicks Box Plus-Minus

Looking at all of that, it is clear McGrady has posted a season that is more impactful than any variant of Drexler. Even with such a high offensive load and responsibility, I believe McGrady didn't quite have scoring blindness --- nor was he a slouch off ball. As a matter of fact, he was a very good playmaker off of his scoring gravity and I believe him to be the best offensive player in the league in 2003 (with Shaq declining and Kobe not quite reaching his apex then).

I think Drexler is quite under appreciated throughout his prime, but he isn't quite on the level of McGrady's best.

[Chronz]

Drexler as a 2 behind dream had that insanely efficient playoff run that led to a chip. That's the argument, it's prolly tmac

What? That was in 1995, at 32, not at his offensive peak.

That it came late in his career only makes me think he would have utterly crushed it in that same role. So its more about the role for me. 120 ORTG on route to a chip, by some measures he was more "productive" offensively than Dream. Its obviously a result of Dreams influence on his numbers but could you imagine what he could have gotten out of peak Drex. The argument being that an uber efficient #2 may hold more value than a less efficient #1, the classic usage vs efficiency, floor vs ceiling type of argument.
It just falls apart when you realize that Tmac in that singular season was beyond anything ever witnessed outside of MJ. Its not just the production but the varied skillset. That Tmac could play in any role and do it better than Drex, tbh tho, I made that devils advocate comment thinking it was higher than 120 lol

Drexler as a 2 behind dream had that insanely efficient playoff run that led to a chip. That's the argument, it's prolly tmac

How is Drexler averaging 21 points and 5 assists as a 2nd option an argument over Tmac?

Cuz secondary options have had arguments over primary options before, primarily on the basis of superior per possession efficiency, but yeah, its not an argument. Peak Tmac is my favorite player of all time, Im just trying to see if I can make something out of nothing

[Chronz]

Clyde tov%
91-92 12.4
92-93 10.9
93-94 11.6

T mac
02-03 8.4
03-04 9.1
04-05 9.5

Drexler seemed to always stare at the ball when dribbling too, I wonder what his bad pass to assist ratio would look like or if he got a greater share of deadball turnovers/charges. Tmacs microscopic turnover rate and gargantuan usage is what made him so special all those years. A phrase Ive typed out at least a million times by now

[tsherkin]

That it came late in his career only makes me think he would have utterly crushed it in that same role. So its more about the role for me. 120 ORTG on route to a chip, by some measures he was more "productive" offensively than Dream. Its obviously a result of Dreams influence on his numbers but could you imagine what he could have gotten out of peak Drex. The argument being that an uber efficient #2 may hold more value than a less efficient #1, the classic usage vs efficiency, floor vs ceiling type of argument.

I mean, Drexler was very good. This is a baseline acknowledgement. Yeah, he had some ensembles, but he did take the Blazers to a pair of Finals, after all.

Cuz secondary options have had arguments over primary options before, primarily on the basis of superior per possession efficiency, but yeah, its not an argument. Peak Tmac is my favorite player of all time, Im just trying to see if I can make something out of nothing

In this case, I don't think a dude playing off of someone else's draw being efficient but not dramatically moreso really has an argument against a guy who led the league in OBPM on THAT garbage squad, you know what I mean?

[JordansBulls]

For offense it is Drexler no contest. For season that is more interesting.

[tsherkin]

For offense it is Drexler no contest.

AT peak? Based on what?

[sp6r=underrated]

For offense it is Drexler no contest.

AT peak? Based on what?

HE played against Jordan.

[RCM88x]

McGrady is better as a 1 year offensive peak. However that season is a bit of an outlier while Drexler had probably 5-7 seasons around peak level. Even if we pick a 3 year peak I'd probably go with Drexler.