Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[tleikheen]

Says alot to me about WUJ as a Coach if he thinks he can start the 6'5"/ 180 # Barton at SF against Eastern Rivals like Jimmy Butler 6'7"/230# SF , Jayson Tatum 6'8"/210# SF , Kris Middleton 6'8"/222# SF , Tobias Harris 6'7"/230# SF , Anonouby 6'7"/2323# SF , Scottie Barnes '6'7"/225# . DeAndre Hunter 6'8" 221# nightly ! These guys have height and 40#'s on Barton !
Bad coaches try sticking square pegs into round holes stuck on a system as opposed to adapting to the players you have . This is why I beat the drum of Kuz 6'9"/221# playing SF and Rui 6'8"/230# playing PF OR Deni 6'9" 210# playing SF / Kuz 6'9"/221# PF to match up defensively against all these SF's in the EC who will abuse Barton defensively.

[Frichuela]

Says alot to me about WUJ as a Coach if he thinks he can start the 6'5"/ 180 # Barton at SF against Eastern Rivals like Jimmy Butler 6'7"/230# SF , Jayson Tatum 6'8"/210# SF , Kris Middleton 6'8"/222# SF , Tobias Harris 6'7"/230# SF , Anonouby 6'7"/2323# SF , Scottie Barnes '6'7"/225# . DeAndre Hunter 6'8" 221# nightly ! These guys have height and 40#'s on Barton !
Bad coaches try sticking square pegs into round holes stuck on a system as opposed to adapting to the players you have . This is why I beat the drum of Kuz 6'9"/221# playing SF and Rui 6'8"/230# playing PF OR Deni 6'9" 210# playing SF / Kuz 6'9"/221# PF to match up defensively against all these SF's in the EC who will abuse Barton defensively.

Amen! But I have this feeling Wes is gonna start his teacher’s pet Barton…I sincerely hope I’m wrong…

[Frichuela]

My guess for minutes to start the season with no injuries - I don't see Wes not playing any of the following 10 but... Avidja definitely got some DNPs last year.

Avidja: 16
Barton: 24
Beal: 32
Gafford: 14
Hachimura: 16
Kispert: 28
Kuzma: 28
Morris: 26
Porzingis: 30
Wright: 24

Interesting. I do not think Kispert will play much, but what do I know! If it was down to me I’d swap the minutes of Kispert with Avdija (i.e. Deni would play 28 mins and Corey 16). However, and in reality, I think we are likely to see a lot of Barton at the expense of both Deni and Corey…hope I am wrong..

I think that Wes is a Kispert fan and wants to put 3 point shooting into the lineup. So, that is where my guess comes from.

Have a guess on Barton's minutes?

My guess is about 30 mins as a starter…and hope I’m wrong. In an ideal world, Barton would be my sixth man and play about 22-24 mins a game on average, coming off the bench as a 2-3 combo. But, as I said in a previous post, Wes probably won’t be able to control himself and will play his teacher’s pet extensively, who “knows his system well”. 6’5” Barton as a starter at the 3 is a disaster when combined with 6’3” Beal at the 2 and 6’1” Morris at the 1.

[doclinkin]

Says alot to me about WUJ as a Coach if he thinks he can start the 6'5"/ 180 # Barton at SF

Amen! But I have this feeling Wes is gonna start his teacher’s pet Barton…

Based on what? Based on Wes being narrow minded or unthinking? And where do you get the impression Wes plays favorites or whatever.

I think Wes probably splits up Barton and Morris so he has guys who know the system both starting the game and coming off the bench. Barton's game doesn't strictly mesh well with Beal, given that both like to initiate with the ball in their hands. Yet Morris is the PG, and has run the system from the lead spot.

Barton as a 6th man seems like an espresso shot to keep the team amped when Beal rests. And he will serve the squad as a penetrating playmaker in an auxiliary role.

Consider the log jam at forward. Team data nerds love the +/- stats, where Deni stands out. The front office loves Kuzma in a leadership role, and with late game heroics. They've invested a lot in Rui, whose high % shooting from 3 still showed up despite the long absence. Kispert came on strong last year and forced Wes to play him. Our forward arsenal is clogged. Throwing Barton in to that mix solves nothing.

I think Barton plays more in relief of Beal than he does as a forward. Especially not as a starter. Who is Beal's back-up? The only other ballhandling attack guard we have behind Beal is Johnny Davis. Delon Wright maybe, but he isn't an aggressive attacker who will put teams on their heels. Wes is going to want a veteran off the bench to stabilize and energize the team. Barton hits outside shots, keeps the ball popping to the open man, can operate with the ball in his hands. If the team has to rest Beal, who plays in his spot? Barton for offense, Wright for D. Maybe Kispert steals minutes if we have ball-movers elsewhere.

I expect Morris starts the season at PG, and plays the majority of the starting minutes at point this year. Wright relieves him and is subbed in on defense at either guard spot. I'd like Morris as a set-up man for pass-dependent players like Kispert, Gafford, Rui, but I think Wes will like him to set the tone with the starters and it sounds like Morris is expecting to play heavy minutes as a lead guard.

Morris, Wright
Beal, Barton,
Deni, Kispert,
Kuzma, Rui,
Porzingis, Gafford

Seems like the 10 man rotation.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My guess for minutes to start the season with no injuries - I don't see Wes not playing any of the following 10 but... Avidja definitely got some DNPs last year.

Avidja: 16
Barton: 24
Beal: 32
Gafford: 14
Hachimura: 16
Kispert: 28
Kuzma: 28
Morris: 26
Porzingis: 30
Wright: 24

Interesting. I do not think Kispert will play much, but what do I know! If it was down to me I’d swap the minutes of Kispert with Avdija (i.e. Deni would play 28 mins and Corey 16). However, and in reality, I think we are likely to see a lot of Barton at the expense of both Deni and Corey…hope I am wrong..

Count on just that. Veterans will play more minutes. Barton will play quality minutes. Even Gibson will play at the expense of young forwards.

Davis won't play much.

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[dckingsfan]

...
Beal, Barton,
Deni, Kispert,
Kuzma, Rui,
Porzingis, Gafford

Seems like the 10 man rotation.

What is your minutes guess for this?

[payitforward]

...
Morris, Wright
Beal, Barton,
Deni, Kispert,
Kuzma, Rui,
Porzingis, Gafford

Seems like the 10 man rotation.

This seems right.
The only "problem" I see with it is that, overall, Wright is a better player than Barton. If he's restricted to backing up Morris, he won't get enough minutes (or Morris won't -- same problem).

For that matter, in his career Barton has mostly come off the bench at both 2 & 3. I.e. he's not usually a pure "2 guard."

I've already expressed my own preference that Morris/Beal/Wright eat up @7000+ of the 7800 guard-minutes.

&, of course, I'd like to see Deni & Kispert each get 2000 minutes or close to it. Keep in mind that, on a per-game basis, Deni only played @ 40 seconds more than Corey last year!

To me, this is a weird roster. & definitely a "going nowhere" roster -- i.e. I can't see that we are building anything or developing anything. How many guys have much growth, further development in them? Avdija, Kispert & Davis are the only obvious ones to point to.

You'd like to put Rui on the list too, obviously, but he's already played over 4000 NBA minutes. Todd & Carey are total long shots.

In that sense, when we talk lineups & rotations, what is the actual team goal? Where are we aimed? Can anyone see an arc of intention & growth towards some target we have in mind? I can't.

In that sense if in no other, we still seem to resemble an Ernie-style roster. Or maybe a "still-in-recovery-from-Ernie" roster...?

[doclinkin]

...
Beal, Barton,
Deni, Kispert,
Kuzma, Rui,
Porzingis, Gafford

Seems like the 10 man rotation.

What is your minutes guess for this?

Based on last year's game flows, in games with Porzingis and Kuzma:
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220309&game=WASLAC
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220311&game=WASLAL
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220306&game=INDWAS
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220314&game=WASGSW
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220316&game=DENWAS
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220318&game=WASNYK


Wes liked to sub Deni next to Rui. He liked the shooting and spacing with Kispert next to Porzingis (though he had KCP as a defender to make up for the defensive issues of starting a back court of Neto and Kispert).

I'm thinking he starts the game with shooters around Beal and Porzingis. Morris initiating the offense to set the pace for the game and provide space as a willing attack threat. Kuz for the rebounding and threat of hot shooting when he gets on a streak.

Bench:
Wes relieves Beal with Barton a few minutes each half.
Swaps Kuz and Kispert for Deni and Rui.
When Rui is hitting 3's he will let him play longer, otherwise he pulls him for Kispert or Kuz.
Gafford is surrounded by shooters with Deni and Barton 2ndary playmakers, then Beal again when he replaces Barton.


Late game for defense I'd bet we see Deni/Wright/KP line-ups next to Beal, either with Kuz or Rui at PF. Probably Kuz due to his late game heroics. Unless Rui is scorching. Then we may see offense/defense flip flops with Rui replacing Deni and vice versa.

Game flow

======1st Q======|======2nd Q=====|
Pg Morris------>Wright------->Morris------
SG Beal--------------->Barton------Beal
SF Kispert------>Deni-------Kuz---------
PF Kuz---------------Rui-----------Deni---
C KP------------>Gafford------->KP--------

=====3rd Q=====|=====4th Q=====
Pg Morris------->Wright------------------
SG Beal------->Barton----->Beal---------
SF Kispert------>Deni------->Kuz---------
PF Kuz---------->Rui--->---------Deni----
C KP------------>Gafford------->KP------

[tleikheen]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10047597-ranking-nba-eastern-conference-starting-lineups-after-cavs-donovan-mitchell-trade

{Projected Starting Lineup: PG Monte Morris, SG Bradley Beal, SF Deni Avdija, PF Kyle Kuzma, C Kristaps Porzingis

The return of Beal and trade for Morris makes this an improved backcourt than the one that ended the 2021-22 season, and Avdija's growth as the projected starting small forward gives this group a ceiling that could finish a few spots higher.

Still, Morris could be the worst starting point guard in the East, speaking more to the talent in the conference than his own ability.

Porzingis has All-Defensive team potential as a rim protector (opponents shot just 53.4 percent against him at the basket), but he's almost guaranteed to miss a chunk of the season after averaging just 39.8 games played the past five years.

Outside of Beal, Washington's strength this season will be their depth, as its roster is loaded with forwards and wings that could easily go 10-12 players deep in a rotation.

For now, this is an OK starting five that will only improve if Avdija makes a third-year leap and Porzingis can actually stay on the floor.}



I dont think WUJ reads or makes his decisions based on what Bleacher Report writes but I'm glad to see Im not the only one that thinks the undersized Barton at SF is the best lineup based on familiarity of Denvers offense. Personally I'd have Hachimura's offense at PF and Kuz at SF and make Avidja the 6th man .

[dckingsfan]

...
Beal, Barton,
Deni, Kispert,
Kuzma, Rui,
Porzingis, Gafford

Seems like the 10 man rotation.

What is your minutes guess for this?

Based on last year's game flows, in games with Porzingis and Kuzma:
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220309&game=WASLAC
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220311&game=WASLAL
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220306&game=INDWAS
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220314&game=WASGSW
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220316&game=DENWAS
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20220318&game=WASNYK


Wes liked to sub Deni next to Rui. He liked the shooting and spacing with Kispert next to Porzingis (though he had KCP as a defender to make up the defensive issues of starting a back court of Neto and Kispert).

I'm thinking he starts the game with shooters around Beal and Porzingis. Morris initiating the offense to set the pace for the game and provide space as a willing attack threat. Kuz for the rebounding and threat of hot shooting when he gets on a streak.

Bench:
Wes relieves Beal with Barton a few minutes each half.
Swaps Kuz and Kispert for Deni and Rui.
When Rui is hitting 3's he will let him play longer, otherwise he pulls him for Kispert or Kuz.
Gafford is surrounded by shooters with Deni and Barton 2ndary playmakers, then Beal again when he replaces Barton.


Late game for defense I'd bet we see Deni/Wright/KP line-ups next to Beal, either with Kuz or Rui at PF. Probably Kuz due to his late game heroics. Unless Rui is scorching. Then we may see offense/defense flip flops with Rui replacing Deni and vice versa.

Game flow

======1st Q======|======2nd Q=====|
Pg Morris------>Wright------->Morris------
SG Beal--------------->Barton------Beal
SF Kispert------>Deni-------Kuz---------
PF Kuz---------------Rui-----------Deni---
C KP------------>Gafford------->KP--------

=====3rd Q=====|=====4th Q=====
Pg Morris------->Wright------------------
SG Beal------->Barton----->Beal---------
SF Kispert------>Deni------->Kuz---------
PF Kuz---------->Rui--->---------Deni----
C KP------------>Gafford------->KP------

Nice analysis... definitely something to keep our eye on.

Interesting to see that you think Deni and Kuz will be in at the end.

[doclinkin]

Interesting to see that you think Deni and Kuz will be in at the end.

I think Wright-Deni-KP are the core of a potentially really solid defense.

Wright-- slows the point of attack, challenges shooters and stifles penetration.
Deni -- really tough to fool on pump fakes, positional defender with active feet. Slides with even the quicker players at the 2-4 spots.
Kuzma -- rebounds with tenacity you wouldn't expect from the pink sweater guy. Not scared to put in effort on the dirty work, long and active enough to hoover up the misses that the others force.
KP --7'3" with a 7'5" wingspan. He changes shots just by standing there. Doesn't need to jump to block shots.

I'd wish we had a long strong 3&D wing who could switch 1-3, so we could be comfortable with Porzingis in drop coverage all the time.

And if Rui rebounded as well as Kuzma, since he is strong/quick enough to stymie some of the elite forwards and make them back out, swing the ball to the next guy. If he picked up some of Taj Gibson's savvy and learned to play big in the paint on defense.

If Johnny Davis were able to defend/rebound at this level as well as he did in college, that would be a useful add.

If Gafford could defend by position without fouling, and had even a 15 foot jumpshot so coaches would keep him out there for longer stretches.

But there are some solid pieces here with which a smart coach could choke out some team's best offensive sets.

[doclinkin]

If common history and off court friendship = oncourt chemistry, I like some of our connections.

Monte and Kuz as childhood buddies. Flint Michigan.
Wright and Kuz as college teammates at Utah.
Monte and Barton as Nuggets teammates. (And good rapport with Wes).
(Even Barton and Zay Todd have familiarity and connection from Baltimore. Barton calls him his little brother).
Rui and Kispert as college teammates at Gonzaga.
Deni and Porzingis tuning up under pressure in Eurobasket games.
Deni training this summer with Beal (under Drew Hanlen).
Monte and Gafford putting in work together at District Sportscenter Pro Runs:

Read on Twitter

On the flip side I'm okay with the idea that Brad's best friend KCP has been swapped out for a couple players who have a connection with the coach, given that Beal has so much sway over front office decisions. If Beal is underperforming, he no longer needs to gun for numbers to earn the next contract. And the coach no longer needs to coddle him to appease the front office. I don't think we will have quite the lockerroom friction that we had last year. More cohesion, more camaraderie, and hopefully better synergy on court.

[dobrojim]

My guess for minutes to start the season with no injuries - I don't see Wes not playing any of the following 10 but... Avidja definitely got some DNPs last year.

Avidja: 16
Barton: 24
Beal: 32
Gafford: 14
Hachimura: 16
Kispert: 28
Kuzma: 28
Morris: 26
Porzingis: 30
Wright: 24

Interesting. I do not think Kispert will play much, but what do I know! If it was down to me I’d swap the minutes of Kispert with Avdija (i.e. Deni would play 28 mins and Corey 16). However, and in reality, I think we are likely to see a lot of Barton at the expense of both Deni and Corey…hope I am wrong..

Count on just that. Veterans will play more minutes. Barton will play quality minutes. Even Gibson will play at the expense of young forwards.

Davis won't play much.

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Do you think he should? Why?

Based on what we have seen so far, he should struggle for minutes. Maybe I'm being
unfair about how poorly he played in Vegas. He's going to have to (Marv Albertism) 'show some signs'.

[nate33]

Rookies rarely play much with a Wizards. The only rookies since Beal that played more than 1000 minutes are Rui and Kispert. And with Rui, the season was a lost cause almost from Day 1. Kispert was really the only rookie that played real minutes for a Wizards team that was actually trying to win games.

[dckingsfan]

Rookies rarely play much with a Wizards. The only rookies since Beal that played more than 1000 minutes are Rui and Kispert. And with Rui, the season was a lost cause almost from Day 1. Kispert was really the only rookie that played real minutes for a Wizards team that was actually trying to win games.

The last three rookies Rui, Avidja and Kispert all played 1000+ minutes.

Johnny Davis isn't going to play because he isn't ready. He should be assigned to the GoGos from the start.

[AFM]

Only the wizards could go for the ultra conservative pick, a low ceiling high floor, can contribute right away guy, and then have to send him to the GoGo because he looks absolutely terrible and outmatched playing against scrubs in summer league

[Frichuela]

Only the wizards could go for the ultra conservative pick, a low ceiling high floor, can contribute right away guy, and then have to send him to the GoGo because he looks absolutely terrible and outmatched playing against scrubs in summer league

So true!

[DCZards]

Maybe we should wait until Davis attends training camp and actually plays in an NBA game before deciding what he is and is not…and determining when (or if) he should be assigned to the Go Go’s.

[dckingsfan]

We have seen enough... let's get him to our G league and get him a full year of development. Let's not make the mistake of having him on the bench behind Morris, Wright, Beal, Barton, Deni & Kispert getting no playing time and not developing.

Of course, doing so would be #soWizards

[DCZards]

We have seen enough... let's get him to our G league and get him a full year of development. Let's not make the mistake of having him on the bench behind Morris, Wright, Beal, Barton, Deni & Kispert getting no playing time and not developing.

Of course, doing so would be #soWizards

Speak for yourself...others might not agree that "we have seen enough."