People who don't have Jordan as GOAT: What metric(s) would make you change your mind?

[ceiling raiser]

To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data on Jordan's career we're missing that we have for modern players.

Would it require RAPM significantly higher than LeBron's?
Would you need to see something like a career 50% jumper from midrange?
Would you require a teammate TS% boost larger than Curry's?
Would you have to have data showing he held players in isolation to a .85 PPP?
Something else?
Or is there nothing in the data that could conceivably change your mind?

[falcolombardi]

To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data on Jordan's career we're missing that we have for modern players.

Would it require RAPM significantly higher than LeBron's?
Would you need to see something like a career 50% jumper from midrange?
Would you require a teammate TS% boost larger than Curry's?
Would you have to have data showing he held players in isolation to a .85 PPP?
Something else?
Or is there nothing in the data that could conceivably change your mind?

Evidence in plus-minus metrics that his defense was actually as huge of a deal as his reputation beyond the usual "he won dpoy" point

I think whether by watching him or by limited impact data he has never been the trascendent wing defender his reputation says.

I actually think lebron peaked higher on that end and i already have lebron at the same offensive level with a higher offensive peak. I have both at offense goat tier

Tldr: better arguments on his defense being all time great at the position beyond pointing to a dpoy award that even alvin robertson won at the time

[penbeast0]

I have Russell as the GOAT so a metric showing that Jordan's actual impact on his teams was close to as high as Russell's actual impact on his teams. I don't think it was, though Jordan was extraordinary compared to almost anyone else.

Then I would have to compare his impact with the impact of Russell, LeBron, and any other candidates and temper Jordan's case with what I think is a negative for attitude, particularly early in his career where he went hero ball at every opportunity and consistently ripped teammates publicly. He gets forgiven this sort of stuff because of his rings and the NBA's desire to build him up as a hero. But, if it doesn't have a negative impact on winning and once Phil Jackson took over it didn't seem to, that's merely a minor issue.

[ceiling raiser]

To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data on Jordan's career we're missing that we have for modern players.

Would it require RAPM significantly higher than LeBron's?
Would you need to see something like a career 50% jumper from midrange?
Would you require a teammate TS% boost larger than Curry's?
Would you have to have data showing he held players in isolation to a .85 PPP?
Something else?
Or is there nothing in the data that could conceivably change your mind?

Evidence in plus-minus metrics that his defense was actually as huge of a deal as his reputation beyond the usual "he won dpoy" point

I think whether by watching him or by limited impact data he has never been the trascendent wing defender his reputation says.

I actually think lebron peaked higher on that end and i already have lebron at the same offensive level with a higher offensive peak. I have both at offense goat tier

Tldr: better arguments on his defense being all time great at the position beyond pointing to a dpoy award that even alvin robertson won at the time

So if we had data showing he was clearly a top 5 defender in the league year-in-year-out and Pippen's defense was overrated, that would improve his case?

[ceiling raiser]

I have Russell as the GOAT so a metric showing that Jordan's actual impact on his teams was close to as high as Russell's actual impact on his teams. I don't think it was, though Jordan was extraordinary compared to almost anyone else.

Then I would have to compare his impact with the impact of Russell, LeBron, and any other candidates and temper Jordan's case with what I think is a negative for attitude, particularly early in his career where he went hero ball at every opportunity and consistently ripped teammates publicly. He gets forgiven this sort of stuff because of his rings and the NBA's desire to build him up as a hero. But, if it doesn't have a negative impact on winning and once Phil Jackson took over it didn't seem to, that's merely a minor issue.

I have Russell and Jordan as my GOATs, probably edge to Russell (always go with the big man). In terms of LeBron though, I've always given Jordan the edge. I have LeBron, Duncan, Kareem a step back in terms of "mastering the game", even if they had clear longevity advantages.

[falcolombardi]

To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data on Jordan's career we're missing that we have for modern players.

Would it require RAPM significantly higher than LeBron's?
Would you need to see something like a career 50% jumper from midrange?
Would you require a teammate TS% boost larger than Curry's?
Would you have to have data showing he held players in isolation to a .85 PPP?
Something else?
Or is there nothing in the data that could conceivably change your mind?

Evidence in plus-minus metrics that his defense was actually as huge of a deal as his reputation beyond the usual "he won dpoy" point

I think whether by watching him or by limited impact data he has never been the trascendent wing defender his reputation says.

I actually think lebron peaked higher on that end and i already have lebron at the same offensive level with a higher offensive peak. I have both at offense goat tier

Tldr: better arguments on his defense being all time great at the position beyond pointing to a dpoy award that even alvin robertson won at the time

So if we had data showing he was clearly a top 5 defender in the league year-in-year-out and Pippen's defense was overrated, that would improve his case?

I dont know that jordan being great o defense would make pippen overated?

But aside of that? Yeah, it would make me higher on jordan if there was a clear impact profile that justified his legendary defensive rep

[kcktiny]

I think whether by watching him or by limited impact data he has never been the transcendent wing defender his reputation says.

You state this based on what?

Not only was Jordan named all-defensive 1st team 9 times from 1987-88 to 1992-93 and 1995-96 to 1997-98 (voted on by sportswriters/broadcasters), but he also received votes for DPOY (voted on by head coaches) where he finished 1st, 5th, 5th, 7th, 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 5th, and 4th. That's an average of getting the 4th-5th most votes annually for DPOY over 9 years.

So the sportscasters, broadcasters, and head coaches that saw him play on a regular basis clearly thought very highly of his defense. What makes you think he wasn't an outstanding defender?

[HeartBreakKid]

I don't think so. What stats could really exist that could change our opinions of Jordan that much? They'd at best show that he dominated his competition which we already know.

I have a hard time placing Jordan over Russell. Any stats that were to come out for Jordan likely wouldn't be available for Bill as well, making it harder for him to pass him definitively.

I think James is a bit better than Jordan as well. I suppose if we did have RAPM data of some sort going back to Jordan's years and it was substantially "better" than James I'd consider it. I doubt any defensive data we'd get would push Jordan up more.

[70sFan]

I think I'd have to have all the impact stats and tracking data from pre-2000s players showing that Russell and Kareem were not top tier players, while Jordan being clearly better than LeBron. If we get stronger evidences of Jordan being outlier defensive pressence and 1960s Celtics domination being weakly related with Russell, that could change my perspective.

I don't think any new data would support these though. I have watched enough of Jordan games to know that he was amazing defender, but not on top tier level. We also have a lot of evidences that his team was really good without him.

[Jaivl]

Don't think it could be done unless he unretired and played a bunch of years more.

[OhayoKD]

To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data on Jordan's career we're missing that we have for modern players.

Would it require RAPM significantly higher than LeBron's?
Would you need to see something like a career 50% jumper from midrange?
Would you require a teammate TS% boost larger than Curry's?
Would you have to have data showing he held players in isolation to a .85 PPP?
Something else?
Or is there nothing in the data that could conceivably change your mind?

undo all the evidence that has lebron being more valuable

explain how kareem was able to win more inheriting the same cast basically immediately

explain how russell won more in less time with less help

and then have jordan unretire and play a few years for longetvity

[OhayoKD]

I think whether by watching him or by limited impact data he has never been the transcendent wing defender his reputation says.

You state this based on what?

Not only was Jordan named all-defensive 1st team 9 times from 1987-88 to 1992-93 and 1995-96 to 1997-98 (voted on by sportswriters/broadcasters), but he also received votes for DPOY (voted on by head coaches) where he finished 1st, 5th, 5th, 7th, 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 5th, and 4th. That's an average of getting the 4th-5th most votes annually for DPOY over 9 years.

So the sportscasters, broadcasters, and head coaches that saw him play on a regular basis clearly thought very highly of his defense. What makes you think he wasn't an outstanding defender?

Jordan has anchored one good regular season defense and no good playoff defenses. The bulls skyrocketed as a defense as he declined, and they weren't affected defensively by his depature. Theimpact stuff we do have doesn't have him anywhere near the top defensive wings which is what you'd expect considering he's a guard.

[NbaAllDay]

I think whether by watching him or by limited impact data he has never been the transcendent wing defender his reputation says.

You state this based on what?

Not only was Jordan named all-defensive 1st team 9 times from 1987-88 to 1992-93 and 1995-96 to 1997-98 (voted on by sportswriters/broadcasters), but he also received votes for DPOY (voted on by head coaches) where he finished 1st, 5th, 5th, 7th, 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 5th, and 4th. That's an average of getting the 4th-5th most votes annually for DPOY over 9 years.

So the sportscasters, broadcasters, and head coaches that saw him play on a regular basis clearly thought very highly of his defense. What makes you think he wasn't an outstanding defender?

You are actually proving his point. There is no evidence here outside of "cause people said so" history shows it's pretty clear how wrong the media and coaches can get picks. Kobes all D teams are one obvious example. Defense has been a part of the game that relied on reputation and very little substance or evidence. Today we have a lot more data that's been verified and tracked over time, although not perfect, has helped paint a clearer picture of a players impact.

Not only this, but if we claim Jordan was a top tier defender, yet we also see that his team didn't become a better D team as he supposedly got better on D, were just as good and if not better when he wasn't there, then again we have to consider how serious we should take All D selections.

[No-more-rings]

I think for most people, or at least a good number he just needs more longevity. He's a good bit behind Lebron and Kareem in that regard. For those that have Russell as GOAT, there is no changing their mind.

[Texas Chuck]

mike's all-D teams are mostly narrative. Some guy lights him up and he gets mad and shuts him down for a half and because he was Micheal Jordan, the media was already preordained to fawn all over it and so they acted like that was how he defended all the time.

He was a good defender. A great one considering his huge offensive load. But he wasn't really a DPOY level defender at any point or really anything close to that.

There will be no metrics to show something that didn't happen.

It's okay if some people don't think he's GOAT. I know many of his fans feel like he's entitled to it and nobody else should ever be considered because they grew up loving the guy, but we've had other great players and that's okay. Russ or Duncan or Lebron being great don't make Mike any less great. It's not zero sum.

[Texas Chuck]

For those that have Russell as GOAT, there is no changing their mind.

I mean I'm a sample size of one, but I was a Russell is GOAT guy for a decade and I no longer am. The new evidence Lebron kept bringing changed my mind.

This idea that Russell believers alone are stubborn flies in the face of all common sense and is ironic as hell itt.

[No-more-rings]

For those that have Russell as GOAT, there is no changing their mind.

I mean I'm a sample size of one, but I was a Russell is GOAT guy for a decade and I no longer am. The new evidence Lebron kept bringing changed my mind.

This idea that Russell believers alone are stubborn flies in the face of all common sense and is ironic as hell itt.

Well maybe you’re one but i doubt there’s a significant number, at least not that i’ve seen. It’s not so much stubbornness as it is, there’s almost no way at this point anyone can match Russell’s level of success so yeah.

[70sFan]

I think this statement:

mike's all-D teams are mostly narrative.

... is quite different than this one:

He was a good defender. A great one considering his huge offensive load. But he wasn't really a DPOY level defender at any point or really anything close to that.

I disagree that Jordan didn't deserve his all-D selections. There were probably some questionable ones, but Jordan was legit great defender. He just wasn't impactful enough to compete against top tier bigs, but for his position he was great.

[eminence]

I don't have it as realistically possible. We have enough of all those stats to say with quite high confidence that while MJ was a very strong best in the game level player, he's not an outlier compared to the LeBrons of the world.

We'd have to go back in time and replay the '94 season and have the Bulls win like 35 games.

[TrueLAfan]

Personally, I think the question is barking up the wrong tree. Top players have such differing values and skills that improving in a metric wouldn’t be proof; it would simply be one of many that a person chose to value. Lots of metrics available; they say differing things. So “improving” in one (or two) is less impactful than the metric being chosen/highlighted.

For Jordan, nothing for me will fix the baseball thing. Nobody who leaves the game at his peak, in the middle of a championship run, is going to get my support for greatest ever. At the same time, I get it. I think that removal of basketball was necessary for MJ. I’ve written about this in the past—Michael Jordan was not terribly far from psychotic about his stature in the game. The reason why Jordan missed a total of 7 games in the 10 years he played between his third season and his final championship Chicago season wasn’t because he was “tough”—it was because of fury and fear about missing games and losing his standing. Jordan was and is not a pleasant and happy guy, especially on the basketball court. And, as a fan or teammate or owner, you didn’t want him to be. You wanted that intensity, that desire to break opponents down on the court and break them mentally. Jordan was a jerk, but he was forgiven because he was as hard on himself as he was on opponents--and teammates. But you don't have that kind of intensity without paying a price. People were surprised about some of the anger and cruelty and pettiness at his HOF induction speech. I wasn't. MJ was true to himself. He really is like that. It’s not something you measure with a metric and it’s a double edged sword, but it is absolutely essential to his greatness.

It also broke up his championship runs for several years—but, like I said, I get it. Jordan seemed to always feel threatened by even the thought of complacency; to maintain that level of anger and intensity must have psychologically murderous. The baseball vacation—because that's what it was; a vacation—would be critical for the well-being—even sanity—of someone like that. It puts him “only” in the top 3 for me, but probably saved his life.