Curious about the mindstate of Hachimura going into this year. We start the pre-season games at the end of the month with an opener in Japan, against the Warriors. As often with Rui his emotional and mental state are his largest question marks. He missed the Asian world cup qualifier games that Japan played this offseason, and the internet has been pretty silent on why, or on what else he has been doing this summer. (Though admittedly my Japanese is limited to manga titles and internet slang). I didn't find footage of him at the Big Guard camp as in past offseasons, etc. No word on him working out with big name trainers, or scrimmaging against NBA competition. We get first peek where his game is immediately upon the start of our preseason, opening against the world champions. I'm curious to see how this works out.
Rui has often been an enigma. His past coaches discussed his difficulty due to language and culture differences. He is seen as a hard working good character guy, but he has not added to his team game much. His country freights him with outsized hopes, even while he experiences a high level of anomie due to incipient racism in the culture. He's an insider's outsider. Teammates and coaches seem to like him, but you get the sense he is isolated. He took months away from the team and the game, and says in order to regain his love of the game he watched highlights of his own play. He seemed to miss spending time with the team, and even then he slowly reintegrated with the team, not even practicing with teammates for a few months despite rejoining the team.
The interesting thing about his stats are that, contrary to the usual pattern, Rui's 3FG% has been steadily improving yet his FT% is in a steady slide. From 82% as a rookie, to 77% his 2nd year to 69% this past year. To my way of thinking tree throws tend to suggest focus, desire, attitude, mental fortitude. Players who improve in this category from year to year are often those whose game generally improves over time in other BBIQ categories (reduction in fouls, TOs, improvement in 3FG%, better team defense) and often these are players whose stats are not volatile over the course of a season, or the course of a game (maintaining the same average in late game situations as they have in the 1st quarter).
This is a contract year for Rui. I wonder what that additional pressure might do to either encourage the best play from him, or even maybe stunt his game further. As always I everyone waits on his breakout year. He has had one of the more unusual starts to a career (freak testicle injury, COVID year, high pressure international games, HOFer Westbrook riding him hard by all accounts --with his unique brand of high pressure high usage non-traditional PG play. Then Rui suffered early burnout, and a coaching change).
In that respect one could imagine the usual young player breakout has been stalled. And with Rui we already give him a pass that some areas of the team game may currently elude him since he was late to the game in life. (Hadn't really known much about the game until high school and learned it by watching videos of Carmelo Anthony in FIBA play). One could imagine that Rui may still eventually have a real breakthrough even if, or perhaps because, everyone has written him off. Once the pressure is off (if it ever is, due to international hopes) maybe he has the distance to understand the nuances of the team game and slowly put it together based on coaching and experience.
A few hopeful signs exist though that point to a possible uptick in production or efficiency. The team has had a full offseason to work with him, uninterrupted by worldwide pandemics or international obligations. We don't see video of him in scrimmages, but who knows what work he has put in on skills training under team guidance. This team put up an iron wall around his personal struggles and really worked with him to shade him from outside pressure. they worked with him one-on-one a great deal during that time. One expects that built a fair amount of trust in the coaching staff and front office. And an understanding of what he does well.
Too, our coach is noted as a savvy player-development guru who builds his offensive systems to take advantage of what his players do well. Rui is an
above average shotmaker at most positions on the floor (except the long 2 when he is run off the 3pt line on the left elbow). His lower TS% reflects the types of shots he chooses, but he makes those shots at an above average rate compared to other NBA players. They are just bad shots to take. The improvement in his outside shooting though is startling though. Beginning in play-in competition, his 3FG% was one bright spot in our getting smoked by Philly a couple years ago. It carried over to Olympic play (38% on 7 shots a game as the focal point of all defenses) and continued in the NBA when he rejoined the team. A coach can use that skill, rely on it. A big who can shoot from outside and finish on the interior adds useful skills. You have to figure Wes and the stat gurus have identified systems and sets that maximize the things that each of the players do well. Rui's 40% 3FG looks good on a spread sheet. Wes gets an offseason to implement his system with players who have experience in it.
A key factor: personnel looks like a a better fit. We added PGs in the offseason who are not undersized 2-guards (Neto) or high usage combo guards (Westbrook, Dinwiddie, or relying on Beal as sole PG). Two of the players added already have experience in the offense and defensive systems Wes has helped input in the past. They. seem to be a match with what Rui needs: players who know what they are doing and can make him look good next to them.
Rui has played most efficiently in his career next to the combo of a floor stretching shooter + a playmaker. Last year his only positive point total line-ups were sharing the floor with Kispert + any of Satoransky/Avdija/Ish Smith. (
Rui 2022 Line-ups, sort 3-man combos by pts or eFG%.) Too, if you look at 4-man combos, the team put up positive numbers with similar lines plus a floor stretching Big in Porzingis). Rui with space to operate and smart decision-makers looks like a better version of himself.
This year we added outside shooting + 3 playmakers (Morris 7ast/100pos, Wright 7ast/100pos, Barton 6ast/100pos) and Deni apparently has upgraded as a creative ballmover on offense. Rui may find himself with easier looks and get the ball in places where he can do something good with it.
Anyway. A lot of words, but, just that there are signs in place that suggest Rui may see an uptick in value. Either value to the team in production, or in what he might recoup in a midseason trade. (Or, of course, at the end of the season in his contract negotiations. Which is naturally a risk when Ted is involved).
I think we could see a breakout year for Rui. Though I don't expect we see a hot start, especially given the fact that we open the pre-season in a high pressure way, facing off against the best team in the World.
