aq_ua wrote:br7knicks wrote:stuporman wrote:
The money printing didn't lead to it, not when Reagan did it, Clinton did it, both Bush's did it, Obama did it, Trump did it or Biden did it.
The recession is a culmination of decisions made about letting corporations freely leave the US while getting subsidies and tax breaks for doing it in conjunction with neglecting domestic manufacturing and infrastructure for decades.
If there is a criticism about the money printing is that they gave it directly to corporations bypassing the citizens under the guise of 'they will do the right thing and create jobs with it' but all corporations did was reward executives, buy back stock and stuff it in the already wealthy's bank accounts.
If they would have used the money on subsidizing social programs to help average Americans and in programs to build American infrastructure it would have helped America, it's populace and still would have wound up in wealthy people's accounts but at least it would have helped citizens along the way.
yes, you are right in that the money printing alone didn't cause this recession. it was a culmination of things. it was the main culprit, though. you can't devalue the dollar as much as it has since trump started all of it.
i definitely agree with you on how they handled the money printing allocation. it was a complete joke. especially hearing the amount of fraud that took place as well.
when biden got elected, i got excited and put a **** load of money into infrastructure ETFs. then almost nothing went into infrastructure. and i sold out of XLE (i bought it before covid, and sold WAY too soon), as the energy sector took right off instead.
we will learn our lesson? time will tell. but no, we will not learn our lesson.
Causes of recession are quite complicated, but I don't think it's right to just point to money printing as the cause of recession. Money printing can cause excess demand for consumption and therefore inflation, and excessive inflation leads to central banks (the Fed) seeking to tamp it down by dramatically raising interest rates (as we are currently seeing) which in turn causes consumer demand to drop and can lead to recession.
However, the big issue we're facing is an overall constricted and choked supply chain, so even if demand wasn't elevated, the supply would be lower and still lead to the inflation we're seeing today, with the same results. Fixing the supply chain side of things is super complicated, time consuming, capital consuming and just painful for everyone involved, and by the way there are wars going on, both in the traditional sense and in the economic / trade war sense.
It's a right mess for sure - but it's really hard to predict where things go, and for how long, let alone really point to the cause of everything. That's why at the end of the day, you have to believe in the long term outcomes and accept that short term volatility is going to be really high for a while.
well, the money printing is the main cause. as i stated, its biggest problem is how it's being allocated, though. it wasn't used in a way that would help sustain the economy through the lockdowns, then after we came out of it.
Things like the supply chain issues also play a major role. If we can't get consumable supply to the demand, prices will go up. But money printing is the main issue. Nixon was the biggest idiot on the planet, and is honestly the most to blame for this.
but then continue to try to pass more policies that are done through more money printing, and in ways that don't actually tax the rich but the middle and lower class, is what will continue to hurt the economy.
money printing is the main cause of the inflation, as well as our current recession and the major drop that's about to happen. it's not the only problem; as you pointed out, it is very complicated.
but when you devalue the dollar, you're going to see drops; when you devalue as much as trump and biden have, it's going to lead to a major recession/crash/depression. we're trending downwards fast, but we're not trying to do enough to stop it.
the federal reserve, fortunately, is raising interest rates to lower the impact of what the money printing has done. but it won't be enough, at least not short term. im pessimistic in general, so i think the US economy is going down the **** (which is why my money is mostly in VWO). unfortunately, this means there will be an enormous amount of job loss in the next few years - it's already started.
but i'm hoping im wrong, and the interest rate hike will lead to a recovery. but this won't happen for a few years. we just need better financial responsibility by those in charge, at the federal and state level; local communities have mostly been doing better.
you're definitely right. it is tough to predict what will happen, specifically. unless there's some crazy miracle, there's no reason not to believe we will continue to drop for the forseeable future. however, you are definitely right that, in the LONG run, things will recover and trend back upwards.
there will be short term volatility. in the long run, it should recover and continue to grow. hence why i stated that i'm saving money more than investing. it's about the long game. as a more old school investor, it's important to think 20-30 years from now for me.
what you stated is most important for investing, it's about the long game.
