Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[tleikheen]

Barton will get abused by Butler/Miami, Tatum/Boston , Middleton/Milwaukee , Harris/Philly , Anounoby/Toronto , Derozan/Bulls all SF's in the Eastern conference ,all SF's who have 40 lbs on Barton. I think the other team will be showing more toughness.

[doclinkin]

Barton will get abused by Butler/Miami, Tatum/Boston , Middleton/Milwaukee , Harris/Philly , Anounoby/Toronto , Derozan/Bulls all SF's in the Eastern conference ,all SF's who have 40 lbs on Barton. I think the other team will be showing more toughness.

Right and while Barton is getting abused any smart coach will leave Avdija on the bench, because he sucks at defense. Also no good coach would ever put Rui one-on-one on an opponent, because even though that is the only time he is any good at defense (as a cooler against teams that heavily rely on a single player) and even though he can match nearly any Forward in the EC in strength, coaches tend to have only one plan and stick with it no matter what. Because Wes has a reputation of being stupid, I guess.

What is your single-minded focus on Barton? He's a player. He shoots okay from outside, is a willing passer, has a decent handle on the drive and dish, but was not the primary object of that trade. Barton adds energy and attitude as a bench reserve, he is not the future of the franchise. No smart coach would put him on an island against all-star opposition and expect him to shut them down. We have other options for that: a good positional defender in Deni, a long active rebounder in Kuzma, and a strong one-v-one guy in Rui (even if he is vulnerable to switches). If Barton is getting torched then the team switches. Personally I think he backs up Beal because we don't have a ball-handling attack guard when we go to the bench there. Wright, but he is not known as an aggressive guy to put pressure on the defense. Kispert has decent size at guard but not noted for his handle, and is a liability on D vs the quicker guards.

Or were you just disagreeing with DCZards that we already have leadership and toughness on the team? If that's the case, I'd say yeah I don't think we have the guy who can say 'follow me' and teammates will listen. Taj is tough, but will be a reserve veteran. Barton has the attitude but not the strategic sense of timing that the best leaders have. I never got the impression that Morris has that 'fight to the death' two-way toughness. Deni might have the inclination, but so far defers to veterans in his NBA career, maybe that changes over time. Or if the team starts winning.

Kuzma has a championship ring. Has buddies on the team in Wright and Morris so maybe his voice comes across louder this year. Toughness? I don't know that opponents and refs see Kuzma as a force to be reckoned with. Or that he has the kind of determined certainty of play that will steady teammates around him and rescue a win out of a hopeless situation. Leadership. Okay. Maybe. If he hits those clutch shots consistently and irons out his streakiness.

Still, with Barton off the bench, I can see us having some success playing a line with:

6'5" Delon (6' 7.5" wingspan, outside shooting, defense)
6'6" Barton (6'9.75" wingspan, dribble drive & kick)
6'9" Deni (footwork, anticipation, smart defense, playmaking glue guy, good chemistry with Gafford)
6'8" Rui (ranged 4, stretching the floor to make space for Gafford, strong vs players 6'7" and up)
6'10" Gafford (athletic shot blocking lob threat)

The Delon-Barton-Deni-Gafford line looks like it has the components for good defense: long & strong with the footspeed to slow the point of attack; able to both challenge outside shooting and channel penetration to Gafford. Gafford acts as a mistake eraser/intimidator on the back line. If Rui's primary job is primarily to shadow the opponent's biggest weapon and make him work harder, the others have the athleticism/smarts to make it tough on everyone else.

[doclinkin]

What would make me say so?

...Short list:

Best KP year of his career; Beal back to highs; Deni breakout; Rui contract year; better team distribution than any wizard team ever, meaning better shots taken; better defense than advertised (Davis, Gil, Delon, Taj, Gafford, KP, Deni, Kisp), perhaps one of best Wiz team defense ever; best bench in Wiz history; stable leadership; best GM in Wiz history to get us pieces along the way and especially at trade deadline, etc… In a word, unity…

But, again, that’s if healthy and things play out the way I expect. Still have to battle the refs, Vegas, self-doubt, poor use of talent and injury.

Actually... what you write makes perfect sense. If...

1. Porzingis is healthy & plays at the level he played for us last year,
2. Beal returns to the level of his previous few seasons before last year,
3. Morris, Barton, Wright & Gibson play at career-average levels overall,
4. Deni continues to improve at the pace of last year's development,
5. Kispert plays as well as, & hopefully better than, he did last year,
6. Rui brings his FT% & rebounding levels back to his rookie levels (while continuing to shoot the way he did last year)...

...then, you bet, we could have quite a good year.

I'd also add:

7. Gafford regains his effectiveness playing with pass-oriented players/outside shooting.

I think he is an overlooked part of the plans, but like Rui, Gafford benefitted more than most by playing with Westbrook. I think if we spread the floor with shooters Gafford will have more room to operate, and when we have players who are better skilled at skipping the ball around the floor Gafford will have opportunities to catch passes on the move to slam the lob-dunk. I like that he has been playing over the summer with Monte Morris, developing chemistry. His drop off last year was disappointing after the promise he showed post-trade. I think there is value to rehab there. We were trying to showcase a recuperating Bryant last year as well, and Gafford lost minutes to him and Trez both. This year I think we get better production from him.

And possibly:

8. Kuzma adds something else to his game. Last year he added playmaking, picking up his first career triple double. And clutch shooting, hitting key shots in pressure situations. The year before he added rebounding. Before that: playoff defense.

I'd like to see him add one more thing to his toolkit: positive consistency. I want him to iron out that streakiness and string his good games together. But he shows that he can play the game at a high level, and does what you want of a player: to add something every year. Kid is nice sometimes:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[doclinkin]

Thinking about our defense based on the Chase Hughes article cited in the Beal thread. According to the NBA's official stats this is the listing of the opponent's FG% when defended by our players:

Good to above average:
Gill -- 36.6 excellent, though in a small sample size
Deni -- 43.5 predictably good
Kuzma -- 43.8. this one surprised me given his miserable +/-, but analyzing deeper, most of his poor effect on the team is due to inefficient shooting, especially off the dribble
Beal -- 45.5 not terrible, which also surprised me, that he was even above average last year. We have seen Beal turn up his defense at times, but given that he plays a ton of minutes and our Defense overall was lousy, I figured he claimed a large part of it

-=League average 46.1 last year=-

Below average to bad.
Kispert -- 47.5. decent for a rookie actually, but not a strength
Porzingis -- 47.6 interesting to me. Porzingis maintains a high ratio of defensive plays/foul, good defensive rebounding, but still players scored on him at an above average rate. Thinking about it, this could be an effect of the type of shots that he tends to defend (close to the basket where league average is higher) and that he deters some shots from being taken at all, which would not show in this stat.
Gafford -- 48.2 see above, but still not great. I would have thought he was better the year before. Nope,worse. But that was averaged between CHI and DC.
Morris -- 48.4 not great at all
Wright -- 48.5 3rd in the league in steals/36, among league leaders in deflections and a high ratio of defensive plays/foul, but his overall defensive FG% has been declining steadily over his career. Used to be he was quite good on the perimeter, now less so, and where he really gets crushed is inside the arc. Maybe his emphasis on steals and deflections affects his defense on shots taken. Goud be that scouts have figured out that you can take advantage of his skinny frame by bodying up on him.
Barton --49.2 not great
Rui -- 50.4 really not great this year. In 2021 it was 45.7

[doclinkin]

Akin to my reasoning for Rui, there's a chance Kuzma is in the Most Improved discussion.

Kuz' negative effect on court seems to be a direct product of trying to do too much on offense, but at least he is trying. On defense and in rebounding this pays out. On offense, not so much. This year though the team has added options around him that should get him more open shots and attack lanes to the basket unimpeded.

Last year he carried a heavy load, only Porzingis and Beal had a higher usage % when on court. Given the lack of true PGs on the roster, Kuz picked up more of the playmaking duties. He also had the option to mash the buttons on attack mode and do whatever he felt like out there. Stats show that Kuzma off the dribble is an inefficient shooter, but Kuzma on a catch and shoot is decent.

This year we add 2 players who know him well, Monte Morris, childhood friend from Flint, and Delon Wright who was the senior star guard when Kuz was a freshman at Utah. Kuz may well get many opportunities to shoot, without being forced to create for himself. His handle is an adventure, you don't really want Kuz dribbling into traffic, but his speed length and agility are a positive mismatch against most of his opponents. He can get open against most match-ups, taller than short defenders, quicker than many bigs. Monte and Delon are among league leaders in asst/TO ratio (#4 and #5 on the list). If teams load up on Porzingis, if Beal is in motion drawing attention from defenders, Kuz will often find himself lightly guarded or wide open. Teammates just have to find him then. And vice versa, Kuz with the ball can kick it back to the open shooter passing over the top of the defense. Delon hit 41% of his open 3's. Ball movement as catalyst for efficiency, seems like what Wes wants. Kuz was a willing participant there. Assists look good on your stat sheet.

I think Kuz pictures himself in a leadership position on this team. He may well grow into that role, especially if his offense is more reliable. I do expect to see him more demonstrative this year, now that Beal's contract issues aren't in the way. In Fact it's Kuz' contract year. I'd expect he thinks its his time. He's the only guy on the team with a championship ring. He was an understudy of LeBron and occasionally seems like he mimics LeBJ's demeanor on court (without the whining to refs, thankfully). Rebounding with authority, passing the ball, talking to teammates. No matter what though Kuz attracts media attention. If he is playing decent, and the Wiz' record is improved, he will be noticed and talked about. That primarily is what goes into the MIP award: is anyone suddenly paying attention in a good way.

I don't want Kuz gunning for stats to earn a contract, but I think he enjoyed his playmaking role this year. If he is vocal on defense, generous with the ball on offense, and is spoonfed easy buckets by his allies, Kuz may look good out there in stretches (more than the flashes he occasionally shows). Every now and again he gets hot and drops 3's like a meteor shower. Just saying he might find them more easily with schemes and teammates who can get him open.

[payitforward]

Akin to my reasoning for Rui, there's a chance Kuzma is in the Most Improved discussion.

Kuz' negative effect on court seems to be a direct product of trying to do too much on offense, but at least he is trying. On defense and in rebounding this pays out. On offense, not so much. This year though the team has added options around him that should get him more open shots and attack lanes to the basket unimpeded.

Last year he carried a heavy load, only Porzingis and Beal had a higher usage % when on court. Given the lack of true PGs on the roster, Kuz picked up more of the playmaking duties. He also had the option to mash the buttons on attack mode and do whatever he felt like out there. Stats show that Kuzma off the dribble is an inefficient shooter, but Kuzma on a catch and shoot is decent.

This year we add 2 players who know him well, Monte Morris, childhood friend from Flint, and Delon Wright who was the senior star guard when Kuz was a freshman at Utah. Kuz may well get many opportunities to shoot, without being forced to create for himself. His handle is an adventure, you don't really want Kuz dribbling into traffic, but his speed length and agility are a positive mismatch against most of his opponents. He can get open against most match-ups, taller than short defenders, quicker than many bigs. Monte and Delon are among league leaders in asst/TO ratio (#4 and #5 on the list). If teams load up on Porzingis, if Beal is in motion drawing attention from defenders, Kuz will often find himself lightly guarded or wide open. Teammates just have to find him then. And vice versa, Kuz with the ball can kick it back to the open shooter passing over the top of the defense. Delon hit 41% of his open 3's. Ball movement as catalyst for efficiency, seems like what Wes wants. Kuz was a willing participant there. Assists look good on your stat sheet.

I think Kuz pictures himself in a leadership position on this team. He may well grow into that role, especially if his offense is more reliable. I do expect to see him more demonstrative this year, now that Beal's contract issues aren't in the way. In Fact it's Kuz' contract year. I'd expect he thinks its his time. He's the only guy on the team with a championship ring. He was an understudy of LeBron and occasionally seems like he mimics LeBJ's demeanor on court (without the whining to refs, thankfully). Rebounding with authority, passing the ball, talking to teammates. No matter what though Kuz attracts media attention. If he is playing decent, and the Wiz' record is improved, he will be noticed and talked about. That primarily is what goes into the MIP award: is anyone suddenly paying attention in a good way.

I don't want Kuz gunning for stats to earn a contract, but I think he enjoyed his playmaking role this year. If he is vocal on defense, generous with the ball on offense, and is spoonfed easy buckets by his allies, Kuz may look good out there in stretches (more than the flashes he occasionally shows). Every now and again he gets hot and drops 3's like a meteor shower. Just saying he might find them more easily with schemes and teammates who can get him open.

I think this makes really good sense -- in two ways: 1. in explaining why his overall performance didn't reach/exceed the previous year, his last w/ LA, & 2. in pointing out reasons why it might both get back to that level & actually improve.

If you look at everything but scoring, Kuz did improve overall: more rebounds, more assists, slightly more blocks, slightly more steals, slightly fewer fouls.

Only one negative: 32% more turnovers. It seems obvious that the increased turnovers are another result of asking Kuz "to do too much on offense."

For the rest, the negative effect on his overall numbers of his usage having risen is not even a result of increased usage causing his efficiency to drop. It didn't. It stayed the same. But, that "same" was below average. Kuz has never been an effective scorer overall in any of his 5 years.

In other words, the reason his 4th year was his best so far was not that he scored more efficiently -- he didn't. It's that lower usage that year meant that he turned it over less.

Bring his usage back down by @10%, & I bet he becomes the best player he can be! Passing rather than forcing the issue will both hold down his TOs & also lead to an extra assist here & there.

Secondary benefit will be that he becomes more tradable. Higher value.

Good thinking, doc!

[Dat2U]

Offensively I like the synergy of this group

G Morris - main ballhandler x shooter
G Beal - secondary ballhander x primary slasher/scorer
F Kispert - knockdown shooter spot up and on the move
F Avdija - tertiary ballhandler x passer
C Porzingis - high post initiator x Solid shooter with 3pt range

Got enough spacing & skill on the floor to allow Beal to do what he does best. KP & Avdija would be one of the more skilled front courts in the league but defensively those two should work well together

The issue is we'd get destroyed on the perimeter by any and everyone but at least it would be entertaining.

You could swap out Wright for Morris or Kispert to bring the defense towards respectability but offensively lose a bit of spacing.

[doclinkin]

Offensively I like the synergy of this group

G Morris - main ballhandler x shooter
G Beal - secondary ballhander x primary slasher/scorer
F Kispert - knockdown shooter spot up and on the move
F Avdija - tertiary ballhandler x passer
C Porzingis - high post initiator x Solid shooter with 3pt range

On the flipside, on Defense, the above stats suggest a line up of:

Beal 6'3"- smart positional defense when locked in, dribble drive attack, a bit of playmaking ability
Wright 6'5" - challenging outside shots, doubling to steal the ball, outside shooting, mistake free passing
Deni 6'9" - stifles penetration, switches 2-4, playmaking glue guy on offense. Developed a jumper this summer?
Kuz 6'10" - long & active, collects rebounds out of his area, swiss army knife offense (a little bit of anything) hot streaks, willing passer
KP 7'3" - a deterrent by size alone, shot blocker and standstill rebounder, high percentage from the top of the key and in the paint. Likes to roll in from the midrange for putback slams.

High IQ play across the board. Willing passers. Though there is not enough offensive spacing in that set unless Kuz is on a hot streak. Or if Deni's outside jumper is not a summer mirage. Or either of Beal/KP have regained their outside touch.

Actually I think I almost prefer it with Kispert instead of Beal. We lose ballhandling and dribble penetration, and Corey can be exploited on defense by faster players, but on offense we get outside shooting and opportunistic cuts to the lane. Both Beal and KP like the midrange, so having both on court lets opponents muck it up in the middle and sag off the three point line. Defense rules now deemphasize dribble penetration anyway, putting a premium on passes to the open shooter. Here we can use Deni (and Kuz at times) in point forward mode, minimize solo dribbling, maximize off ball movement, crisp passes. With Kispert and Wright outside, and when Kuz is on, Deni has weapons to kick to at every position. Whomever is hot, or open, will get the ball. And the passing connection between the tall forwards to KP would be tough to disrupt.

[barelyawake]

It’s not going to all fit right off. We are going to need a trade. But, we can win enough to up the value of those pieces that have value simply don’t fit us. We obviously need another defender and another star to move to the next level. Guys like Kuz and Butler have enough skill to provide a positive, while still holding us back from the perfect fit. If we coulda gotten Oladipo… not that that was ever a real option.

[dckingsfan]

It’s not going to all fit right off. We are going to need a trade. But, we can win enough to up the value of those pieces that have value simply don’t fit us. We obviously need another defender and another star to move to the next level. Guys like Kuz and Butler have enough skill to provide a positive, while still holding us back from the perfect fit. If we coulda gotten Oladipo… not that that was ever a real option.

To me it isn't about the roster at all now that it "seems to be" set.

To me it is about Wes' rotations, PT, how his new offense works with Porzingis and Beal and seeing if any of Avidja, Kispert, Rui or Gafford take a major step forward.

Rationally, I am guessing we don't make the play-in. Irrationally, I am hoping something just clicks and the offensive/defensive schemas are greater than the individual parts.

At the end of the day, if Wes can't take that step - the roster won't make that much difference in the near future.

[Dat2U]

G Wright
G Beal
F Avdija
F Porzingis
C Gafford

KP may not like it but this is probably the best overall lineup they could put on the floor. Still run through KP in the high post but with the addition of lob threat in DG. We'd probaly need to see more playmaking/shooting from Avdija for this lineul to work offensively.

[Dat2U]

It’s not going to all fit right off. We are going to need a trade. But, we can win enough to up the value of those pieces that have value simply don’t fit us. We obviously need another defender and another star to move to the next level. Guys like Kuz and Butler have enough skill to provide a positive, while still holding us back from the perfect fit. If we coulda gotten Oladipo… not that that was ever a real option.

To me it isn't about the roster at all now that it "seems to be" set.

To me it is about Wes' rotations, PT, how his new offense works with Porzingis and Beal and seeing if any of Avidja, Kispert, Rui or Gafford take a major y that step forward.

Rationally, I am guessing we don't make the play-in. Irrationally, I am hoping something just clicks and the offensive/defensive schemas are greater than the individual parts.

At the end of the day, if Wes can't take that step - the roster won't make that much difference in the near future.

I cant believe they think the roster is set. They've gotta see the rest of the East and know the competition is thick. Another trade is definitely coming. I assume Shepp is just waiting for a team that's ready to move a disgruntled fringe star i.e. KP ( since they don't have the assets to trade for a real legit one)

[DCZards]

G Wright
G Beal
F Avdija
F Porzingis
C Gafford

KP may not like it but this is probably the best overall lineup they could put on the floor. Still run through KP in the high post but with the addition of lob threat in DG. We'd probaly need to see more playmaking/shooting from Avdija for this lineul to work offensively.

I’m interested to see how often Wes employs the Gafford-KP lineup. He used it a little the last few games of the season and I liked some of what I saw.

[dckingsfan]

It’s not going to all fit right off. We are going to need a trade. But, we can win enough to up the value of those pieces that have value simply don’t fit us. We obviously need another defender and another star to move to the next level. Guys like Kuz and Butler have enough skill to provide a positive, while still holding us back from the perfect fit. If we coulda gotten Oladipo… not that that was ever a real option.

To me it isn't about the roster at all now that it "seems to be" set.

To me it is about Wes' rotations, PT, how his new offense works with Porzingis and Beal and seeing if any of Avidja, Kispert, Rui or Gafford take a major y that step forward.

Rationally, I am guessing we don't make the play-in. Irrationally, I am hoping something just clicks and the offensive/defensive schemas are greater than the individual parts.

At the end of the day, if Wes can't take that step - the roster won't make that much difference in the near future.

I cant believe they think the roster is set. They've gotta see the rest of the East and know the competition is thick. Another trade is definitely coming. I assume Shepp is just waiting for a team that's ready to move a disgruntled fringe star i.e. KP ( since they don't have the assets to trade for a real legit one)

I do believe that they think the roster is set. Like you allude to, if there is a disgruntled start that becomes available, you know Tommy will be all over it...

But I can't see anything happening in the near future.

[payitforward]

...I cant believe they think the roster is set. They've gotta see the rest of the East and know the competition is thick. ...

They're not competing with "the rest of the East." They're competing with the Knicks, Pacers, Pistons & Magic to see which one might conceivably get by one other team to qualify for the play-in tournament.

Used to be they would "compete every year to be in the playoffs," but the owners have figured out how to lower the bar even further. Just be among the top 20 teams out of 30, & you've had a "successful" year.

& if they fall short & wind up in the 11th spot -- why, then, they "...almost made it, & you can see that we're headed in the right direction."

The Washington Wizards are bottom dwellers. But the "bottoms" are still "dwelling" in the seats, so... no problem!

[barelyawake]

It’s not going to all fit right off. We are going to need a trade. But, we can win enough to up the value of those pieces that have value simply don’t fit us. We obviously need another defender and another star to move to the next level. Guys like Kuz and Butler have enough skill to provide a positive, while still holding us back from the perfect fit. If we coulda gotten Oladipo… not that that was ever a real option.

To me it isn't about the roster at all now that it "seems to be" set.

To me it is about Wes' rotations, PT, how his new offense works with Porzingis and Beal and seeing if any of Avidja, Kispert, Rui or Gafford take a major y that step forward.

Rationally, I am guessing we don't make the play-in. Irrationally, I am hoping something just clicks and the offensive/defensive schemas are greater than the individual parts.

At the end of the day, if Wes can't take that step - the roster won't make that much difference in the near future.

I cant believe they think the roster is set. They've gotta see the rest of the East and know the competition is thick. Another trade is definitely coming. I assume Shepp is just waiting for a team that's ready to move a disgruntled fringe star i.e. KP ( since they don't have the assets to trade for a real legit one)

Yeah, but Dat, we are writing off Davis and Gil. We need a defender/distributor and a star. Davis is supposed to be that first guy. And Kuz could become as good as he thinks. And Rui could pop a bit. And Butler is certainly better than we are expecting. So, let’s see. I say we have enough talent, even with defensive holes, to be on track for an eight to five seed, and primed for our GM to show the balls no previous Wiz GM has shown.

[badinage]

Wait, who’s Butler?

[dckingsfan]

Wait, who’s Butler?

Barton but you can just call me The Butler.

[barelyawake]

Spell check + dyslexic… Sorry Barton.

[doclinkin]

G Wright
G Beal
F Avdija
F Porzingis
C Gafford

KP may not like it but this is probably the best overall lineup they could put on the floor. Still run through KP in the high post but with the addition of lob threat in DG. We'd probaly need to see more playmaking/shooting from Avdija for this lineup to work offensively.

I think that line works if KP is hitting from outside. Otherwise I think it's too many non-shooters, unless Beal finds his shot again. Even with KP hitting it still is clogged though. KP outside opens the middle for Gafford and Beal but reduces KP to a standstill guntower on the outside. Both Beal and KP thrive with space in the mid-range.

I think Tommy was smart to add shooters this summer. Creating space saves wear and tear on KP. Makes Beal and KP both more dangerous with attack lanes to the basket. Gives playmakers kick out options when teams choke the middle. Allows the backdoor plays that open up with a high post center.

I'd like to see Gafford playing with Monte Morris in a 2nd unit. Morris looks to be our most effective playmaker. I expect Wes will want him starting, but I'd like to see him and Gaff develop a solid connection. Depth is still a strength for us, yeah we are deep in 2nd tier players, but I can see our bench unit putting up some points and making teams work. If we sprinkle Morris in with the bench mob at times when we need Wright's defense with the starters, then we could get better use out of players like Gaff and Rui.

Also, I don't trust any of our centers behind KP/Gaff. So using them together is less optimal except against huge front lines. Gafford stays in foul trouble and KP will be load managed I'd bet, so we are thirsty for useful minutes played at C.

If Deni takes a starting role I think it'd be interesting to see a line of:

Morris --shooter/playmaker
Barton/Kispert --attack or offball motion
Rui/Kispert -- stretch Big or threat from the corner/backdoor reads
Kuz -- 2ndary playmaking, rebounding
Gafford -- lob threat

I like the spacing on that one on offense, even if the defense suffers. I like how Wes used Deni as a captain of the 2nd unit last year though, so who knows if that continues.