Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[gambitx777]

This is the wild **** I don't understand. People moan and complain all the time about no trading back but bitch about a possible 42 win season and the 18th pick. I get that's not the point, and I really wanted to trade back this yeah but come on. I have hope

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[dckingsfan]

If those five guys start, then none of them are on the second unit. That would leave the second unit with Wright, Barton, Kispert, Hachimura and Gafford. Who is going to run that offense? Who can get them into their sets and get all those point guard dependent players the ball?

Yeah, this is probably one of the key things to watch and puzzles me more than any one other "thing". When Porzingis is off the floor, what offense do we run and who can run that offense effectively.

It will be fascinating to watch. All I can say is, "go Wes". Fingers and toes crossed.

[payitforward]

Harrell can't defend starters. KP can. It's a massive difference that outweighs Harrell's statistical edge on offense.

There's a reason that no coach ever let's Harrell start.

Absolutely! & this goes to the issue of "talent." I mean... look, in a zillion ways, it makes little sense to compare these 2 guys, the number 4 & the number 32 pick in the same draft. You'd never be in a real-world situation where you'd be choosing between them!

There's a tendency to compare players as if it were a beauty contest. Or like we're deciding who should get an Oscar this year. The NBA is a business, & a big part of success is winning games, which you do, mainly, by fielding the best possible roster under the cap rules. How "good" a player is has everything to do with how much it costs you to acquire him & how much you pay him.

But, even leaving aside the difference in $$ & in the role you'd have these 2 guys play, these 2 are still just totally different! One is an enormous guy with all-world talent. The other is an undersized over-achiever with an enormous amount of... will-power I guess you'd call it.

In any case, I didn't bring up the comparison -- but once the subject has been raised, you do have to look at everything, & numbers are where it starts. So, I'd say we have to give Montrezl Harrell a hell of a lot of props for what he gets done on the court at 6'7".

OTOH, the point you bring up, Trez being unable to defend starters is absolutely true. Only... aren't you leaving out one important thing?

KP can't defend starters when he's in street clothes on the bench b/c he's injured. Over the last 5 years, Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 1235 minutes a season.

Going back to that "real-world" vs. "beauty contest" point: KP got paid almost $32m last season. He played 1482 minutes. The previous year he played 1300 minutes & got paid $30m.

How many players like that do you want on your team?

Kinda helps you understand why a team would trade him for, essentially, nothing, huh? Even throw in a R2 pick -- just to be rid of him.

[Frichuela]

The problem with starting Morris, Beal, Deni, Kuzma and Porzingis is that they are our 5 best playmakers on the roster. Sure, they'd be fine together, but there are diminishing returns in having all five guys be quality offensive decision makers. There is only one basketball.

If those five guys start, then none of them are on the second unit. That would leave the second unit with Wright, Barton, Kispert, Hachimura and Gafford. Who is going to run that offense? Who can get them into their sets and get all those point guard dependent players the ball?

Yes, there is no optimal solution at starting SF. Deni fits better as a playmaker with the 2nd unit. Problem is Kispert as a starting SF will get overwhelmed defending big wings. So Rui is probably the best possible choice, provided he keeps up his 3% percentages. He has shown he can be an effective one-on-one defender but his lack of team defensive IQ is a worry...

In any case, I fear Wes will start Barton at SF and play him 30+ minutes a game...

[doclinkin]

Kinda helps you understand why a team would trade him for, essentially, nothing, huh? Even throw in a R2 pick -- just to be rid of him.

Well that and their star player takes the majority of his shots from the same spot as Porzingis' comfort zone. Carlisle had KP up top most of the game to keep the middle open for Luka. Their on-court chemistry didn't work so well. Half of Luka's shots come in the paint, the majority of the rest are 3pts from up top. Likewise KP, his shot chart is an exclamation point straight up and down from the top of the key to the basket.

Dallas had other sensible reasons to make the trade. Their key PG was due for a large raise and would likely seek a starter's role in the offseason, so they traded for a PG who could back up Luka in Dinwiddie. Despite poor chemistry with Brad, Dinwiddie is not nothin'. We spent significant money and resources to land him based on his prior work. It didn't pan out here, but he showed his value in Dallas. Spence played well for them, KP played well for us. Win-win.

As for KP vs Trez. Trez was -28 in the playoffs with LAC. Unplayable. By contrast KP was +8 and +6 with Dallas in the playoffs. Both years his playoff numbers were better than his regular season by more than double (though he has had a + +/- with Dallas).

This is the direct opposite from Trez who dominates back-ups offensively but cannot defend a ballboy, and oddly despite all his energy on court, does not even try on defense.

Agreed the biggest flaw in KP's game is his body. But when available, when healthy, overall KP has had a significantly positive effect on his team, on defense and on his teammates' effectiveness on offense. In fact if you look at his on/off numbers, he has made pretty much everybody better EXCEPT Luka. (Especially pronounced in the 2020 playoffs, where he was +6.4 with the team overall, but he and Luka were -15 together. Makes no sense, but definitely points toward a need for a change).

[AFM]

KP also doesn't drive around with shipping pallet sized loads of afghani reefer on him

[DCZards]

PIF, when I made the statement that KP was a better player than Trez it was strictly about talent. It had nothing to do with health, where they were drafted or how much they’re being paid.

[doclinkin]

The problem with starting Morris, Beal, Deni, Kuzma and Porzingis is that they are our 5 best playmakers on the roster. Sure, they'd be fine together, but there are diminishing returns in having all five guys be quality offensive decision makers. There is only one basketball.

If those five guys start, then none of them are on the second unit. That would leave the second unit with Wright, Barton, Kispert, Hachimura and Gafford. Who is going to run that offense? Who can get them into their sets and get all those point guard dependent players the ball?

Yes, there is no optimal solution at starting SF. Deni fits better as a playmaker with the 2nd unit. Problem is Kispert as a starting SF will get overwhelmed defending big wings. So Rui is probably the best possible choice, provided he keeps up his 3% percentages. He has shown he can be an effective one-on-one defender but his lack of team defensive IQ is a worry...

In any case, I fear Wes will start Barton at SF and play him 30+ minutes a game...

Barton is listed as a Guard on the Wiz roster. We have no real back-up for Beal at 2-guard. If Barton gets 30 mins/game a chunk of that will be in the 12 or so minutes that Beal is out. Their games are similar enough that I think they would clog things up playing together for long.

I expect Wes substitutes freely but I doubt he sticks with a heavy 1st unit/2nd unit division. I expect he will have one playmaker and one shooter on court at all times. Two shooters if he can make it work.

For the preseason opener in Japan I'd bet we see:

Morris
Beal
Rui
Kuz
KP

with Deni as the 1st sub, replacing Rui. Gafford replacing KP for load management. Morris working with Gafford + Rui for a minute, switched out for Wright with Barton stepping in for Beal, Kispert in for Kuz. That gives us a brief look at:

Wright --range & D
Barton -- range, penetrating playmaker
Kispert -- range
Deni -- playmaker & D
Gafford -- lob & blocks.

Before KP comes back in. Then Rui + Morris. Beal. Kuz, Something like that. I agree though that we will almost always have a BBIQ player on the floor. One of Morris, Beal, Deni, Kuz. Playing next to shooters Kispert, Wright, Rui.

KP will play less than 30 minutes a game. So we will probably see alignments with Kuz/Deni/Rui at times. And Taj will probably scrap his way into the rotation. Especially when Gaff gets quick foul trouble.

[payitforward]

KP also doesn't drive around with shipping pallet sized loads of afghani reefer on him

OTOH, he doesn't drop any of it off at my place either, so there's that.

[payitforward]

PIF, when I made the statement that KP was a better player than Trez it was strictly about talent. It had nothing to do with health, where they were drafted or how much they’re being paid.

Fair enough. Although you are still selling Trez short, by a lot, which doesn't seem characteristic of you.

Plus... I like Trez! Always have. Thought it was great that he was a Wizard. Wish he still was.

&, honestly, I like Kristaps Porzingis too! He's an enormous talent, & if he's been injured a lot... it's not like it's his fault! He doesn't want to be injured.

I hope the guy plays 2300 minutes & is great -- I hope it for his sake, & I hope it for the Wizards sake too. Because the more & better he plays the better we are.

The full extent of the point I made was to observe that projecting extremely optimistic success based on simply penciling KP in for those 2300 minutes is fantasy. That seems obvious to me. You can understand it by looking at the first 3 letters of the word "fantasy."

Doesn't mean it can't happen. Be great if it did. Peace!

[payitforward]

Kinda helps you understand why a team would trade him for, essentially, nothing, huh? Even throw in a R2 pick -- just to be rid of him.

Well that and their star player takes the majority of his shots from the same spot as Porzingis' comfort zone....

Sure. That's true. & so is the rest of what you wrote.

True but irrelevant. Everyone who is traded is traded for a reason. & in every case, the market sets the price. The market for a player determines what you'll get back for him. The more interest in him the more you get back.

The best Dallas was able to get for KP was two players we were absolutely dying to get rid of, two contracts we didn't want. & even in that case, we weren't willing to do the deal for KP alone! They also had to throw in a R2 pick!

The high order information here is that there wasn't much of a market for Kristaps Porzingis.

On top of which you go on in the below to argue that having to give KP plus a R2 pick for Dinwiddie & the horrible Bertans contract was a pretty good deal for them! Tortured logic.

I'm done on this subject.

...Carlisle had KP up top most of the game to keep the middle open for Luka. Their on-court chemistry didn't work so well. Half of Luka's shots come in the paint, the majority of the rest are 3pts from up top. Likewise KP, his shot chart is an exclamation point straight up and down from the top of the key to the basket.

Dallas had other sensible reasons to make the trade. Their key PG was due for a large raise and would likely seek a starter's role in the offseason, so they traded for a PG who could back up Luka in Dinwiddie. Despite poor chemistry with Brad, Dinwiddie is not nothin'. We spent significant money and resources to land him based on his prior work. It didn't pan out here, but he showed his value in Dallas. Spence played well for them, KP played well for us. Win-win.

As for KP vs Trez. Trez was -28 in the playoffs with LAC. Unplayable. By contrast KP was +8 and +6 with Dallas in the playoffs. Both years his playoff numbers were better than his regular season by more than double (though he has had a + +/- with Dallas).

This is the direct opposite from Trez who dominates back-ups offensively but cannot defend a ballboy, and oddly despite all his energy on court, does not even try on defense.

Agreed the biggest flaw in KP's game is his body. But when available, when healthy, overall KP has had a significantly positive effect on his team, on defense and on his teammates' effectiveness on offense. In fact if you look at his on/off numbers, he has made pretty much everybody better EXCEPT Luka. (Especially pronounced in the 2020 playoffs, where he was +6.4 with the team overall, but he and Luka were -15 together. Makes no sense, but definitely points toward a need for a change).

[dckingsfan]

Let's put this one on the watch list.

Does the offensive schema that Wes puts in place benefit the Zinger?
Will the Zinger be able to hold up during the regular season and will Wes help facilitate that?

[dckingsfan]

Is this good or bad? Not a two way competition between Deni and Corey but "wide open"...

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[Frichuela]

Is this good or bad? Not a two way competition between Deni and Corey but "wide open"...

Read on Twitter

To repeat myself, I fear Will Barton wins the spot after training camp...I sincerely hope I am wrong! IMO- Barton fits better as a SG off-the bench and he has only 1 year of contract left..

[doclinkin]

The best Dallas was able to get for KP was two players we were absolutely dying to get rid of, two contracts we didn't want. & even in that case, we weren't willing to do the deal for KP alone! They also had to throw in a R2 pick!

The high order information here is that there wasn't much of a market for Kristaps Porzingis.

To your argument, if we are talking market value: there "wasn't much of a market" for Trez either. We swapped him for the most traded player in history and a seemingly failed young prospect who was ditched while still on his rookie contract. I'd say the deal for KP netted the Mavs a better return than our deal for Trez.

I think where people take issue is with your assessment of Porzingis' on court game as poor. You asked why Zards rates KP as a better _player_ than Trez. Obviously we are talking about when they actually play. The answer is: whatever stats Trez puts up, his teams lose with him on the court. KP has poor stats for a center (in your assessment) but his teams play better next to him.

Gravity charts show he draws a lot of attention. Team eFG% rises with him on court, opponent eFG% drops with him near the basket. He's 7'3" with a 7'5" wingspan, he shot .395 from 3 his last year in NY. Trez has limited range therefore a limited offensive set that can be played with him.

In head to head games:
Harrell: 10pts 5.3 rb, .9steals, .7 blocks, plus/minus: -2.1 per game -15 overall
Porzingis: 15.6pts 8.7rb 1.4steals, 2.0 blocks, plus/minus: +1.6 per game +11 overall

among other reasons

But anyway. On to the next. Trez will be playing a season with the 6ers. We *hope* KP will be playing a season for us. Hopefully our guy is better than their guy, but I wish Trez well otherwise. He gave value to me as a fan, attitude and fire and energy.

[penbeast0]

There was a very weak market for Porzingis but he's the most talented player on the team (yes, more than Beal). Basically if he's bad, so are the Wiz, if he's good we might be as well (if Beal comes back and the team gells defensively). And, general consensus on the trade board after the trade was that the Wiz had gotten a steal.

Trez didn't bring the trade return that his stats would indicate (and without minutes played, not sure how much that head to head number actually says) and I would have built around his offense if you were going to keep him but he's gone now and I hope he does well. I am not worried at this point about whether we do better than Philly, I'm still just hoping we either do better than .500 or finally commit to a rebuild.

[payitforward]

The best Dallas was able to get for KP was two players we were absolutely dying to get rid of, two contracts we didn't want. & even in that case, we weren't willing to do the deal for KP alone! They also had to throw in a R2 pick!

The high order information here is that there wasn't much of a market for Kristaps Porzingis.

To your argument, if we are talking market value: there "wasn't much of a market" for Trez either. We swapped him for the most traded player in history and a seemingly failed young prospect who was ditched while still on his rookie contract. I'd say the deal for KP netted the Mavs a better return than our deal for Trez....

This is 100% true. The Mavs got more for Kristaps Porzingis & a R2 pick than we got for Montrezl Harrell. A good thing too, since they gave 3 players & 2 R1 picks to acquire Porzingis.

We didn't get much for Harrell. & there must be some kind of a locker room story behind it, because you sure can't say he played badly for us!

Whatever was going on with him, it cost him a fair amount of money. He was making $9.7m with us. He signed w/ Philly for @$2.7 a year.

...I think where people take issue is with your assessment of Porzingis' on court game as poor....

?? Feel free to point out where I said that. I didn't. In fact, he played quite well for us in 17 games.

He hasn't been "poor" on his overall career. But, he hasn't been "good" either -- & he's been injured a whole lot.

...You asked why Zards rates KP as a better _player_ than Trez. Obviously we are talking about when they actually play....

Well, no. Ability to stay on the floor affects how good a player you are -- in the sense of how good it is to have you on the team (the context for Zards' remark). How good it is to spend X amount of dollars on you. How much you help your team win. & that gives context to the following:

...whatever stats Trez puts up, his teams lose with him on the court. KP has poor stats for a center (in your assessment) but his teams play better next to him....

Nonsense. First off, there's no question but that, over his career, KP hasn't posted outstanding numbers for a Center. No one thinks he has.

&, once again, sigh... he played 1500 minutes for $33m last year. He played 1200 minutes for $30m the year before. Do I need to look up the value equation for the previous season

...Gravity charts show he draws a lot of attention....

WHEN HE IS ON THE FLOOR.

... he shot .395 from 3 his last year in NY....

Oh for godssakes. What was his 2 pt. % that year, doc? 45.4%. What was his TS% that year? 53.9% What's the average TS% for an NBA center? 60.6%.

Kristaps Porzingis was the 4th pick in the 1995 NBA draft. He was a colossal disappointment in New York. He was a disappointment in Dallas as well. & he's managed to average 1450 minutes a season over 7 years.

Here's hoping he stays healthy & produces for us. But facts are facts.

...Trez will be playing a season with the 6ers. ... I wish Trez well.... He gave value to me as a fan, attitude and fire and energy.

That's more like it.

[payitforward]

There was a very weak market for Porzingis but he's the most talented player on the team (yes, more than Beal). Basically if he's bad, so are the Wiz, if he's good we might be as well (if Beal comes back and the team gells defensively). And, general consensus on the trade board after the trade was that the Wiz had gotten a steal....

I agree with every word of the above -- including that the trade was a steal.

If we'd traded Bertans straight up for nothing, that would have been a steal given his horrible contract.
& I think we'd have taken nothing at all for Dinwiddie, who was persona non grata.

Just getting a R2 pick for the 2 of them would have seemed a triumph. Getting KP plus a R2 pick was absolutely terrific.

Trez didn't bring the trade return that his stats would indicate (and without minutes played, not sure how much that head to head number actually says)....

On the season last year, each guy played for two teams, obviously. Montrezl Harrell played more minutes than Kristaps Porzingis, & overall he played way better than KP. It wasn't close.

...I'm still just hoping we either do better than .500 or finally commit to a rebuild.

We won't do better than .500, & we won't commit to a rebuild.

[doclinkin]

...You asked why Zards rates KP as a better _player_ than Trez. Obviously we are talking about when they actually play....

Well, no.

Well yes, according to you:

Turns out the Zards got a better player at the trade deadline anyway...KP.

to which you responded:

It's Trez as a player that I was talking about -- his effect on game results when he was on the court. In that regard, I think it's pretty obvious that, minute for minute, he was the best player on the Washington Wizards last year.

"A creature that gestates inside living human host", these are your words, "and has concentrated acid for blood"...

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Zinger with Wizards. per 100
38.8 pts, 15.5 rb, 5.2 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.6 bk, 3fg .367, 2fg .522, ft .871

Trez with the wiz. per 100
28.7 pts, 13.7r, 4.3a, 0.8s, 1.4bk, 3fg .267, 2fg .660, ft .771

Looks "pretty obvious" to me that KP's "effect on game results when he was on the court" was better in every "minute for minute" category above except 2FG%. As a starter, not off the bench.

I'm just using your definitions and terms here. Trez was great for us, KP was better. If we had a full year of either it is possible our record would be better with KP than with Trez at the same position. DCZards point. You can argue it is unlikely that we will ever have a full year of Zinger at any point. You can point to small sample size. But Zinger played more minutes per game for us than Trez did, and performed better. So Wiz fans have reasons for projecting we may get better production at the spot from KP next year than we got in a partial year of Trez.

Yes, all depends on health, and his contract makes him a salary cap anchor. But on a "minute for minute" basis, KP was flat better. For us. Which says a lot because Trez was awesome and fun to watch.

[nate33]

Is this good or bad? Not a two way competition between Deni and Corey but "wide open"...

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It's meaningless.

I don't expect a press release saying, SF is locked up by Player X. Basically, all positions are "wide open" except SG and C.