Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #35 - 2010-11 Dwight Howard

[70sFan]

The analogy is in how they score and the potential weaknesses to that approach or otherwise the way that approach forces team to defend. Shaq did it better and at higher volume, but the style is not dissimilar, as scorers.

Got it, I just think the difference is too drastic to mention these two in the same sentence.

Agreed, they had all the size necessary to handle that particular matchup. But I do not need him to be that level of scorer in every matchup when his defensive impact is generally consistent.

Sure, I would never say he lost all his value, because his defense was always more important. I just wonder how to weigh it next to other two-way centers.

Ironically that habit of overcommitting tended to act as a perpetual deterrent.

It did, but it also had its weak points. It was easier to leave Dwight off the floor, beat him on the pump fake or simply leave him out of position.

Artis had the length but I do not think that led to any advantage in rim protection because of Dwight’s athleticism. Again, maybe 1972 aside. I have read that Artis was hammered pretty hard for goaltending that year and adjusted in later seasons, but at that point that is value no longer provided.

Do you have any strong evidences of Gilmore regressing as a rim protector after 1972? I don't see that, but I am willing to change my mind.

And what data do you have to support that?

For now, I don't have my laptop but I will provide data if you wish.

Unlike Robinson, Gilmore did not spend his prime dealing with elite post-scoring bigs.

Well, he did face Kareem, Lanier, Walton and Moses. You can't go any better than that.

And hey, Dwight did not either much, which is why I am not pushing that point hard, but we do know he was strong in the post generally, and to whatever extent you want to profile him to Gobert playing against more post-capable bigs, I do not see where Howard is clearly losing out.

Dwight struggled against Yao and older Shaq. To be honest, these two were freak matchups for anyone, but I also remember him doing not so well vs Bynum. I don't like his fundamentals against post players from my tape analysis.

Gilmore has plenty of traits that should make him elite in that area. In the ABA, I am sure he was. But those traits are not ones which really should have left him in the transition to the NBA, as they are not especially tied to raw athleticism, and I have never seen much to suggest truly elite results once he was in the NBA and dealing with Kareem and Lanier and Moses and so on (mostly those three I guess).

I agree they shouldn't have left him, but I don't think they did. Gilmore did better job on Lakers Kareem than anyone. His defense was always sound and top bigs rarely did exceptionally well against him. Again, I don't have the numbers for now but I will post them in the future.

I am no real fan of Robinson, but he has those results for pretty much everyone apart from 1995 WCF Hakeem.

He did not so well vs Shaq, Ewing also had big nights against him. He could overwhelm most of his opponents due to his massive athleticism advantage, but it didn't work against top post bigs

Because they added two all-defensive starters, not because Gilmore suddenly elevated. Maybe it is Gilmore’s second best defensive season — that would make the drops in subsequent years a little more concerning, but oh well, this is a peaks project — but he never had as much raw impact as he did in his rookie year.

Again, maybe a product of officiating, maybe a product of 1972 being a weaker league than 1975, but 1972 is the only year where you can clearly point and say Dwight probably did not approach that level of defensive impact in 2009-11.

Again, I need more specifics. I don't see any reason to believe that Gilmore peaked defensively as a rookie.

I also think you overstate Dwight's defensive impact on these Magic teams. Yeah, he was a monster but these teams did very well without him. I know, Gortat and all, but Marcin was never a monster defender and the truth is that their success was just as much about their scheme as about Dwight himself.

It seems that you view Dwight as top tier defender and I just don't see that, I see him probably outside of top 10 for peaks (though, close to it).

Mobility plus lack of clear advantage in drop / at the rim / as a general deterrent.

I disagree about protecting the paint, I also think you underrate Gimore's mobility. I will come back with more clips.

Howard can cover the perimetre much better, recover better, defend pnrs better… better at stripping the ball or monitoring passing lanes… better rebounder, which is kind-of ridiculous given that should theoretically be one of the best ways Gilmore should get an edge… not a brilliant defensive mind, but at least had to respond to better offensive schemes and players than Gilmore did… yeah, I just do not really see where Gilmore is winning out apart from abstractly post defence.

Dwight defends P&Rs better in terms of switching, but I don't see his advantage in drop coverage.

I want to hear more about responding to offensive players.

He was not smaller than Hakeem or Bill Russell, and similarly, his verticality is a great way to close or even exceed that base level gap against true giants like Gilmore or Kareem.

He was shorter than Hakeem and Russell. Not by much, but it counts.

About verticality - young Gilmore had just absurd ability to elevate. It was truly Wilt-esque, I don't see Dwight exceed that gap.

Elite relative to guys like Hakeem or Ben Wallace or Bill Russell? Pretty much any other true defensive anchoring centre? Yeah I would.

I would say that other players like Cowens or Adebayo are clearly better as well. Gilmore wasn't, here we can agree.

That is why you are 70sFan. Most people would disagree.

I don't think it's nearly as clear as you may believe. If you think I am biased, point out where I make mistakes.

I do really like his defence in 1974 though, to the point I have never really been set on 1977 as his consensus peak. But maybe the Walton comparisons are excessively colouring my assessments.

I'd say 1971-72 are just as impressive, if not more.

[AEnigma]

[Do you have any strong evidences of Gilmore regressing as a rim protector after 1972? I don't see that, but I am willing to change my mind.

… His block rate? I did not think this was some hot take, even if you want to dismiss the anecdotal talk of goaltending dissuading him from being as aggressive.

Now, again, this is not necessarily a reflection of his latent ability in a different environment. If you think 1975 Gilmore could recreate 1972 Gilmore with a more lenient whistle, I would not really push back on that, but his approach changed and I think that matters. Dwight accepting those types of fouls was part of his approach and demonstrably made players more wary of challenging him than they would a more fundamentally sound shotblocker like Tim Duncan, and that has season-long value.

And what data do you have to support that?

For now, I don't have my laptop but I will provide data if you wish...
…
Gilmore did better job on Lakers Kareem than anyone. His defense was always sound and top bigs rarely did exceptionally well against him. Again, I don't have the numbers for now but I will post them in the future.

Sounds good.

Dwight struggled against Yao and older Shaq. To be honest, these two were freak matchups for anyone, but I also remember him doing not so well vs Bynum. I don't like his fundamentals against post players from my tape analysis.

Fair enough; like I said, I do not have especially strong opinions on his post defence, and either way it is not much of a factor in my assessment because of its lessened modern relevance.

I am no real fan of Robinson, but he has those results for pretty much everyone apart from 1995 WCF Hakeem.

He did not so well vs Shaq, Ewing also had big nights against him. He could overwhelm most of his opponents due to his massive athleticism advantage, but it didn't work against top post bigs.

That seems more anecdotal than anything.

Because they added two all-defensive starters, not because Gilmore suddenly elevated. Maybe it is Gilmore’s second best defensive season — that would make the drops in subsequent years a little more concerning, but oh well, this is a peaks project — but he never had as much raw impact as he did in his rookie year.

Again, maybe a product of officiating, maybe a product of 1972 being a weaker league than 1975, but 1972 is the only year where you can clearly point and say Dwight probably did not approach that level of defensive impact in 2009-11.

Again, I need more specifics. I don't see any reason to believe that Gilmore peaked defensively as a rookie.

In ability, idk youthful springiness maybe, but my argument is more contextual to his approach and the league. This is not really relevant though if both of us are focusing specifically on 1975, which it seems we are. I was just making a note of it in case you tried to push 1972 as a reason to prefer him over Dwight.

I also think you overstate Dwight's defensive impact on these Magic teams. Yeah, he was a monster but these teams did very well without him. I know, Gortat and all, but Marcin was never a monster defender and the truth is that their success was just as much about their scheme as about Dwight himself.

Perhaps. It was a helpful scheme, and I do tend to push back against the notion that Dwight carried a bunch of pylons. That said, hardly an all-defensive calibre bunch, and even before Van Gundy they were a pretty fine defence.

And of course will note that at his peak Dwight’s DRAPM was right at the top of the league with Bogut, Duncan, and Garnett (now there is a top tier schematic impact boost ), while handling significantly heavier minutes loads than all three. Maybe Bogut was better per game/minute/possession in 2010, and maybe the same was true of Garnett in 2011, but there is no shame in being ~second to either in defensive impact, and availability ultimately should matter. He was the deserving DPoY for me 2009-11, and missed time might have been all that prevented a fourth in 2012 (that said, I think Chandler was partially being rewarded for the 2011 postseason, so maybe that was inevitable).

It seems that you view Dwight as top tier defender and I just don't see that, I see him probably outside of top 10 for peaks (though, close to it).

Probably. Curious how many non-Russell bigs have anchored a three-year -5 postseason defence, though. Tough to imagine more than eight doing it (and one of the most likely options was coached by the guy who mentioned Dwight’s coach).

Mobility plus lack of clear advantage in drop / at the rim / as a general deterrent.

I disagree about protecting the paint, I also think you underrate Gimore's mobility. I will come back with more clips.

Sounds good.

Howard can cover the perimetre much better, recover better, defend pnrs better… better at stripping the ball or monitoring passing lanes… better rebounder, which is kind-of ridiculous given that should theoretically be one of the best ways Gilmore should get an edge… not a brilliant defensive mind, but at least had to respond to better offensive schemes and players than Gilmore did… yeah, I just do not really see where Gilmore is winning out apart from abstractly post defence.

Dwight defends P&Rs better in terms of switching, but I don't see his advantage in drop coverage.

I said Gilmore lacks a clear drop advantage over Dwight for me, not that Dwight explicitly has a drop advantage over Gilmore.

I want to hear more about responding to offensive players.

I mean in the sense that I do think it was harder for a defensive centre in 2009-11 than it was for Artis Gilmore in the ABA.

He was not smaller than Hakeem or Bill Russell, and similarly, his verticality is a great way to close or even exceed that base level gap against true giants like Gilmore or Kareem.

He was shorter than Hakeem and Russell. Not by much, but it counts.

About verticality - young Gilmore had just absurd ability to elevate. It was truly Wilt-esque, I don't see Dwight exceed that gap.

How young are we talking? 1972 young, or 1975 young.

Elite relative to guys like Hakeem or Ben Wallace or Bill Russell? Pretty much any other true defensive anchoring centre? Yeah I would.

I would say that other players like Cowens or Adebayo are clearly better as well. Gilmore wasn't, here we can agree.

Neither of those two are all-time defensive anchors, at least not in the sense of talking top ten or thereabouts — and both comparatively sacrifice quite a lot of rim protection (Cowens especially) in exchange for that perimetre mobility. But sure.

That is why you are 70sFan. Most people would disagree.

I don't think it's nearly as clear as you may believe. If you think I am biased, point out where I make mistakes.

I do not think it is a mistake so much as a different weighing of skillsets and eras. Dwight would probably not maintain his 2009-12 level defensive advantage in the 1970s, where his uncommon mobility would be of somewhat lessened importance in favour of being a purer rim deterrent, and where his style of rim protection might suffer in a faster-paced league, but none of that factors heavily into my assessments. Modern defensive translation is more interesting to me than backward translation, which is admittedly going to disadvantage a number of older bigs unless they have some major outlier ability (as I would say Russell and Hakeem and even Wilt and Thurmond and Walton do).

I do really like his defence in 1974 though, to the point I have never really been set on 1977 as his consensus peak. But maybe the Walton comparisons are excessively colouring my assessments.

I'd say 1971-72 are just as impressive, if not more.

Defensively, or as overall peaks? Latter, eh, tough for me to buy a seven-year lull between peaks. Former, you would really need to sell me on a colossal 1970 offseason leap.

[capfan33]

1. 11 Dwight
ATG defender with good offense and great athleticism, I think he's probably somewhat underrated in a historical sense because we see what he is now but forget the force he was before the injuries took their toll. I've seen some interesting stuff on Malone and Stockton, who I used to exclusively view as postseason chokers but thanks to Colt18 and what Proxy wrote in the last thread I've had to reconsider that viewpoint some, but I still don't think either of them has any skill that matches Dwight's defensive impact. I'm not sure where to put Paul due to injury as well as general postseason issues and I hate the idea of building around Chuck. So Dwight seems like the best candidate left.

2. 94 Pippen
Definitely think it's about time Pip gets in, he was an incredible #2 option but also wasn't shabby as the #1 this year either. Was a hair away from the finals and while they probably would lose easily in the finals it's still a testament to his ability to be the #1 option. I think his versatility and size would allow him to do very well in many different eras and team constructions.

3. 22 Embiid
Just going to defer to all the arguments I've seen here, the main issue is of course his postseason durability. With better health, I assume he already would've been voted in as he's easily one of the best 2-way forces left. I do wonder how much more room he has to grow and would love to see a fully healthy postseason from him this year with the team they have around him.

[70sFan]

… His block rate? I did not think this was some hot take, even if you want to dismiss the anecdotal talk of goaltending dissuading him from being as aggressive.

Block rate only says you how many blocks you get, it doesn't give you any information of the actual rim protecting ability.

Tim Duncan peaked in BLK% in 2013, but nobody would say that he was more agressive or better rim protector than in his prime.

I think his block rate change actually shows how he IMPROVED defensively, not the other way around. I haven't seen much of his rookie season tapes, but I have seen him in college and he was very undisciplined shotblocker. When you watch him in 1974-76, this concern doesn't exist anymore.

Now, again, this is not necessarily a reflection of his latent ability in a different environment. If you think 1975 Gilmore could recreate 1972 Gilmore with a more lenient whistle, I would not really push back on that, but his approach changed and I think that matters. Dwight accepting those types of fouls was part of his approach and demonstrably made players more wary of challenging him than they would a more fundamentally sound shotblocker like Tim Duncan, and that has season-long value.

Well, I would take Duncan over Howard in terms of rim protection, so maybe we disagree in the basics.

Sounds good.

1977-79 Kareem averages: 24.1 pp36 on 60.4 TS%
1977-79 Kareem vs Artis: 20.7 pp36 on 53.5 TS%

1977-79 Lanier averages: 24.1 pp36 on 57.3 TS%
1977-79 Lanier vs Artis: 21.7 pp36 on 56.7 TS%

1977-78 Walton averages: 19.8 pp36 on 55.9 TS%
1977-78 Walton vs Artis: 16.6 pp36 on 51.6 TS%

1978-79 Moses averages: 20.8 pp36 on 58.7 TS%
1978-79 Moses vs Artis: 21.2 pp36 on 56.6 TS%

1972-73 Daniels averages: 17.8 pp36 on 53.8 TS%
1972-73 Daniels vs Artis: 18.7 pp36 on 52.2 TS%

1972-73 Beaty averages: 20.2 pp36 on 59.4 TS%
1972-73 Beaty vs Artis: 17.6 pp36 on 53.2 TS%

Overall: 20.5 pp36 on 57.1 TS%
Against Artis: 19.0 pp36 on 53.5 TS%

Difference: -1.5 pp36 and -3.6 TS%

It doesn't reach the GOAT level of Thurmond or Hakeem/Russell tier, but these numbers looks quite good. You can't compare them with what Ben calculated, as I only included the best scorers among centers here, while he did all of the all-stars chosen, but I think it stacks up quite well.

Fair enough; like I said, I do not have especially strong opinions on his post defence, and either way it is not much of a factor in my assessment because of its lessened modern relevance.

That's fair, it's just one of the aspects where Gilmore has considerable advantage.

That seems more anecdotal than anything.

Well, these are against all-star bigs, not elite scorers. It does look very good though.

I'm planning to do similar studies about top 15 centers ever, maybe that will change my opinion. Based on my eye-test, Robinson could be very intimidating against players who he could overwhelm physically, but he struggled against other big, athletic centers because his defensive fundamentals were relatively weak. I don't love his style of man defense, but maybe it worked better than I think.

Perhaps. It was a helpful scheme, and I do tend to push back against the notion that Dwight carried a bunch of pylons. That said, hardly an all-defensive calibre bunch, and even before Van Gundy they were a pretty fine defence.

And of course will note that at his peak Dwight’s DRAPM was right at the top of the league with Bogut, Duncan, and Garnett (now there is a top tier schematic impact boost ), while handling significantly heavier minutes loads than all three. Maybe Bogut was better per game/minute/possession in 2010, and maybe the same was true of Garnett in 2011, but there is no shame in being ~second to either in defensive impact, and availability ultimately should matter. He was the deserving DPoY for me 2009-11, and missed time might have been all that prevented a fourth in 2012 (that said, I think Chandler was partially being rewarded for the 2011 postseason, so maybe that was inevitable).

I don't know if I'd go that far:

2008 DRAPM:

Dwight: +0.7

Duncan: +3.1
Garnett: +5.2

2009 DRAPM:

Dwight: +2.0

Duncan: +2.0
Garnett: +5.6
Bogut: +4.1

2010 DRAPM:

Dwight: +2.5

Duncan: +3.2
Garnett: +4.0
Bogut: +4.4

2011 DRAPM:

Dwight: +2.5

Duncan: +3.7
Garnett: +5.3
Bogut: +3.8

I agree with you that Dwight handled significantly bigger role in terms of offense and minutes played than these, but he doesn't look as good as them in DRAPM. We also know that peak Duncan and Garnett handled even bigger roles with better DRAPM results. I am fine with Dwight being a DPOY in 2009-11 period, but he didn't reach top tier defensive peak in my opinion.

Sounds good.

I said Gilmore lacks a clear drop advantage over Dwight for me, not that Dwight explicitly has a drop advantage over Gilmore.

Ok, got it.

I mean in the sense that I do think it was harder for a defensive centre in 2009-11 than it was for Artis Gilmore in the ABA.

Ok.

How young are we talking? 1972 young, or 1975 young.

Both, Artis didn't really lose his vertical jump until his 1979 injury:

Gilmore even at 40 years old could get up really high when he had enough time to gather:

Neither of those two are all-time defensive anchors, at least not in the sense of talking top ten or thereabouts — and both comparatively sacrifice quite a lot of rim protection (Cowens especially) in exchange for that perimetre mobility. But sure.

I don't think Cowens is that far behind from all-time great defensive anchor, I think the gap between him and Dwight isn't larger than the gap between Dwight and Hakeem.

I do not think it is a mistake so much as a different weighing of skillsets and eras. Dwight would probably not maintain his 2009-12 level defensive advantage in the 1970s, where his uncommon mobility would be of somewhat lessened importance in favour of being a purer rim deterrent, and where his style of rim protection might suffer in a faster-paced league, but none of that factors heavily into my assessments. Modern defensive translation is more interesting to me than backward translation, which is admittedly going to disadvantage a number of older bigs unless they have some major outlier ability (as I would say Russell and Hakeem and even Wilt and Thurmond and Walton do).

I understand you don't do backward translation, I try to just look at the skillsets in absolute sense and conclude how portable a player could be across all eras. I also try to focus mostly on how each player developed their skills within the needs of the era he played in.

Defensively, or as overall peaks? Latter, eh, tough for me to buy a seven-year lull between peaks. Former, you would really need to sell me on a colossal 1970 offseason leap.

Yes, I think Kareem made a huge leap in 1970 offseason defensively. I have enough footage of rookie Kareem to see that he became significantly better on defense in his second season and the gap only grew larger in the next season. Of course, sometimes he was forced to take possession off due to absurd offensive load in Oscar absence, but Kareem was incredible defensively in 1971-74 period.

I don't think he peaked overall before 1974, because his scoring repertoire was less developed and he relied on physical advantages more. His go-to moves became more efficient, he cleaned up his shooting selection and he was more patient as he got older.

[70sFan]

1. 1958/59 Bob Pettit (HM: 1956/57, 1959/60, 1962/63)

Pettit was the prototype power forward on offense. He had all the tools you want from a bigman on offensive end - strong jumpshot, excellent first step, ability to draw fouls and offensive rebounding. Unlike most bigs from that time, Pettit's offensive game was very dynamic - he rarely stood in the post waiting for entry pass. Look how he moved on perimeter, play P&R and they went on for a quick give and go to punish defensive breakdown:

Hawks often utilized his shooting ability to stretch the floor and put opposing bigs into space. When someone like Bill Russell decided to switch into Pettit, Hawks just run a lot of P&Rs for him to get an open look like here:

What made him dangerous (especially for his era), was the fact that he could create good shots for himself even when he couldn't lose his man without the ball. He had a very good pull-up game and his ability to elevate (very underrated athlete), combined with 6'9 frame made his jumpshot very tough to block:

All these things made him very hard to stop as a scorer:

1956-64 RS: 39.2 mpg, 16.8 rpg, 3.0 apg, 27.3 ppg on 43.9% FG, 75.9% FT and 51.3% TS (+4.64% rTS)
Against good defenses (36.78% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 15.9 rpg, 2.8 apg,26.8 ppg on 41.9% FG, 76.6% FT and 50.0% TS (+3.75% rTS)

I think 1958/59 is his best RS overall and even though the Hawks didn't make the finals, I don't think Pettit underperformed in the playoffs compared to other years.

I don't have a lot of footage to analyze his defense, from the limited sample I see him as a positive, but not elite defender. He was a tough, physical post defender and excellent rebounder. He also showed quite a decent quickness in some clips. On the other hand, his main weakness seemed to be a rim protection - in most situations inside, Pettit didn't bring much resiliance against slashers.

2. 1974/75 Artis Gilmore (HM: 1975/76)

I hope to make a long breakdown of his game at some point, but for now I will make it short - GOAT-level inside finisher, excellent low post scorer and one of the best rim protectors ever. People who only saw him in the Spurs don't realize that this guy was 7'2 Dwight Howard in terms of physical talent. Strong as a bull, but also surprisingly light on his feet. By 1975, his offensive game was developed (earlier versions were significantly less refined offensively) and his left handed hook to the middle was only short to Kareem's skyhook. By that time, there was just no way to affect the way he played, he just did his things against anyone.

Weaknesses: sometimes he became too passive on offense, his vision left a lot of concerns for a centerpiece. These things prevented him from top 30 peak to me, but I still view him as better than other bigman candidates (Reed, Lanier, McAdoo, Embiid and Dwight) due to his combination of absurd efficiency and defense (better defender than all of the mentioned players, probably with the exception of Dwight).

3. 2010/11 Dwight Howard (HM: 2008/09)

I don't love his offensive game, but his defense was legit. Amazing combination of mobility and rim protection, absurd FT rate and finishing ability. On top of that, he's one of the greatest rebounders ever and he could dominate weaker frontcourts with his sheer athleticism.

Orlando were legit contenders with Dwight in 2009-11 period, despite Dwight being their only clear star. They had underrated depth and solid coaching, but this team was built around Dwight and they wouldn't have been anywhere near that level without him.

[AEnigma]

… His block rate? I did not think this was some hot take, even if you want to dismiss the anecdotal talk of goaltending dissuading him from being as aggressive.

Block rate only says you how many blocks you get, it doesn't give you any information of the actual rim protecting ability.

Which I stressed repeatedly.

Tim Duncan peaked in BLK% in 2013, but nobody would say that he was more agressive or better rim protector than in his prime.

But you are apparently not disputing that Gilmore was more aggressive in 1972, and I never said Gilmore’s raw ability to protect the rim notably declined immediately after his rookie season.

I think his block rate change actually shows how he IMPROVED defensively, not the other way around. I haven't seen much of his rookie season tapes, but I have seen him in college and he was very undisciplined shotblocker. When you watch him in 1974-76, this concern doesn't exist anymore.

But do team results really bear out a defensive improvement (again, independent of adding all-defensive teammates). I think “fundamental” shotblocking is smarter long-term, in the sense it is far more sustainable, but I do not think the trade-off in deterrence versus discipline immediately favours the latter without notable evidence of diminishment from foul trouble. If you want to argue his impact was pretty consistent, sure; my stance was that if there is any “clear” defensive impact peak, it would be 1972. And as I said a few posts ago, since you are not arguing that, this is not especially relevant to the broader comparison (apart from I guess a reiteration of a preference for fundamentals over intimidation).

That all said, and to tie this into the videos you posted, do you feel Gilmore was a Duncan or Russell level “fundamental” shotblocker? Because I am not saying it is an absolute given that the aggressive approach is better, but I never really marked Gilmore as being shrewdly selective in his contests in that way.

1977-79 Kareem averages: 24.1 pp36 on 60.4 TS%
1977-79 Kareem vs Artis: 20.7 pp36 on 53.5 TS%

1977-79 Lanier averages: 24.1 pp36 on 57.3 TS%
1977-79 Lanier vs Artis: 21.7 pp36 on 56.7 TS%

1977-78 Walton averages: 19.8 pp36 on 55.9 TS%
1977-78 Walton vs Artis: 16.6 pp36 on 51.6 TS%

1978-79 Moses averages: 20.8 pp36 on 58.7 TS%
1978-79 Moses vs Artis: 21.2 pp36 on 56.6 TS%

1972-73 Daniels averages: 17.8 pp36 on 53.8 TS%
1972-73 Daniels vs Artis: 18.7 pp36 on 52.2 TS%

1972-73 Beaty averages: 20.2 pp36 on 59.4 TS%
1972-73 Beaty vs Artis: 17.6 pp36 on 53.2 TS%

Overall: 20.5 pp36 on 57.1 TS%
Against Artis: 19.0 pp36 on 53.5 TS%

Difference: -1.5 pp36 and -3.6 TS%

It doesn't reach the GOAT level of Thurmond or Hakeem/Russell tier, but these numbers looks quite good. You can't compare them with what Ben calculated, as I only included the best scorers among centers here, while he did all of the all-stars chosen, but I think it stacks up quite well.

Cool data. Yeah, looks like that would probably put Gilmore somewhere around that Walton/Robinson/Wilt/Ewing quadrilateral. Nicely supported.

Perhaps. It was a helpful scheme, and I do tend to push back against the notion that Dwight carried a bunch of pylons. That said, hardly an all-defensive calibre bunch, and even before Van Gundy they were a pretty fine defence.

And of course will note that at his peak Dwight’s DRAPM was right at the top of the league with Bogut, Duncan, and Garnett (now there is a top tier schematic impact boost ), while handling significantly heavier minutes loads than all three. Maybe Bogut was better per game/minute/possession in 2010, and maybe the same was true of Garnett in 2011, but there is no shame in being ~second to either in defensive impact, and availability ultimately should matter. He was the deserving DPoY for me 2009-11, and missed time might have been all that prevented a fourth in 2012 (that said, I think Chandler was partially being rewarded for the 2011 postseason, so maybe that was inevitable).

I don't know if I'd go that far:

2008 DRAPM:

Dwight: +0.7

Duncan: +3.1
Garnett: +5.2

2009 DRAPM:

Dwight: +2.0

Duncan: +2.0
Garnett: +5.6
Bogut: +4.1

2010 DRAPM:

Dwight: +2.5

Duncan: +3.2
Garnett: +4.0
Bogut: +4.4

2011 DRAPM:

Dwight: +2.5

Duncan: +3.7
Garnett: +5.3
Bogut: +3.8

I agree with you that Dwight handled significantly bigger role in terms of offense and minutes played than these, but he doesn't look as good as them in DRAPM.

Not sure what source you are using, but those are not Engelmann’s numbers.

Dropping Garnett here because he is an outlier regardless.

2009 NPI:
Howard — +2.21
(Rashard Lewis — +2.32)
(Jameer Nelson — +1.59)
(Hedo Turkoglu — +1.83)
Duncan — +0.78
Bogut — +3.36

2009 PI:
Howard — +1.5
(Rashard — +2.3)
(Hedo — +1.14)
Duncan — +3.07
Bogut — +2.47

2010 NPI:
Howard — +1.83
Duncan — +2.57
Bogut — +2.79

2010 PI:
Howard — +2.75
(Rashard — +2.51)
(Vince Carter — +1.44)
Duncan — +3.33
Bogut — +3.23

2011 NPI:
Howard — +3.43
Duncan — +2.51
Chandler — +2.34
(Dirk — +3.16)

2011 PI:
Howard — +4.43
Duncan — +3.22
Bogut — +5.14
Chandler — +3.26

2012 NPI:
Howard — +2.46
Duncan — +3.22
Chandler — +1.58
MGasol — +2.92

2012 PI:
Howard — +4.48
Duncan — +4.47
Chandler — +3.6
MGasol — +3.21
Bogut — +4.74

2013 NPI (just to hammer a point):
MGasol: +3.51
(Mike Conley: +3.39)

Now, if we want to take the approach that Dwight took a massive defensive leap in the 2010 offseason, great, because this is a peaks project anyway. However, if we want to take the approach that Dwight was not all that different, then it is worth considering which is likely a better reflection of his real value: the one which for lineup reasons assigns a lot of defensive impact to his teammates (possibly because of the Gortat element), or the one which sees a sudden spike as those teammates keep changing around him while the defence holds steady.

Defensively, or as overall peaks? Latter, eh, tough for me to buy a seven-year lull between peaks. Former, you would really need to sell me on a colossal 1970 offseason leap.

Yes, I think Kareem made a huge leap in 1970 offseason defensively. I have enough footage of rookie Kareem to see that he became significantly better on defense in his second season and the gap only grew larger in the next season. Of course, sometimes he was forced to take possession off due to absurd offensive load in Oscar absence, but Kareem was incredible defensively in 1971-74 period.

I don't think he peaked overall before 1974, because his scoring repertoire was less developed and he relied on physical advantages more. His go-to moves became more efficient, he cleaned up his shooting selection and he was more patient as he got older.

Okay, but you see how that is not much of an argument for 1971/1972 as his defensive peak, right? At best you are probably saying he was pretty much the same 1971-74, and then if you do see 1977 as his overall peak, only slightly diminished with the Lakers (by a lesser amount than his offensive improvement). Without clear physical diminishment or change, tough to believe he became a defensive genius in one offseason such that no later experience really improved his ability.

[prolific passer]

1. 1958/59 Bob Pettit (HM: 1956/57, 1959/60, 1962/63)

Pettit was the prototype power forward on offense. He had all the tools you want from a bigman on offensive end - strong jumpshot, excellent first step, ability to draw fouls and offensive rebounding. Unlike most bigs from that time, Pettit's offensive game was very dynamic - he rarely stood in the post waiting for entry pass. Look how he moved on perimeter, play P&R and they went on for a quick give and go to punish defensive breakdown:

Hawks often utilized his shooting ability to stretch the floor and put opposing bigs into space. When someone like Bill Russell decided to switch into Pettit, Hawks just run a lot of P&Rs for him to get an open look like here:

What made him dangerous (especially for his era), was the fact that he could create good shots for himself even when he couldn't lose his man without the ball. He had a very good pull-up game and his ability to elevate (very underrated athlete), combined with 6'9 frame made his jumpshot very tough to block:

All these things made him very hard to stop as a scorer:

1956-64 RS: 39.2 mpg, 16.8 rpg, 3.0 apg, 27.3 ppg on 43.9% FG, 75.9% FT and 51.3% TS (+4.64% rTS)
Against good defenses (36.78% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 15.9 rpg, 2.8 apg,26.8 ppg on 41.9% FG, 76.6% FT and 50.0% TS (+3.75% rTS)

I think 1958/59 is his best RS overall and even though the Hawks didn't make the finals, I don't think Pettit underperformed in the playoffs compared to other years.

I don't have a lot of footage to analyze his defense, from the limited sample I see him as a positive, but not elite defender. He was a tough, physical post defender and excellent rebounder. He also showed quite a decent quickness in some clips. On the other hand, his main weakness seemed to be a rim protection - in most situations inside, Pettit didn't bring much resiliance against slashers.

2. 1974/75 Artis Gilmore (HM: 1975/76)

I hope to make a long breakdown of his game at some point, but for now I will make it short - GOAT-level inside finisher, excellent low post scorer and one of the best rim protectors ever. People who only saw him in the Spurs don't realize that this guy was 7'2 Dwight Howard in terms of physical talent. Strong as a bull, but also surprisingly light on his feet. By 1975, his offensive game was developed (earlier versions were significantly less refined offensively) and his left handed hook to the middle was only short to Kareem's skyhook. By that time, there was just no way to affect the way he played, he just did his things against anyone.

Weaknesses: sometimes he became too passive on offense, his vision left a lot of concerns for a centerpiece. These things prevented him from top 30 peak to me, but I still view him as better than other bigman candidates (Reed, Lanier, McAdoo, Embiid and Dwight) due to his combination of absurd efficiency and defense (better defender than all of the mentioned players, probably with the exception of Dwight).

3. 2010/11 Dwight Howard (HM: 2008/09)

I don't love his offensive game, but his defense was legit. Amazing combination of mobility and rim protection, absurd FT rate and finishing ability. On top of that, he's one of the greatest rebounders ever and he could dominate weaker frontcourts with his sheer athleticism.

Orlando were legit contenders with Dwight in 2009-11 period, despite Dwight being their only clear star. They had underrated depth and solid coaching, but this team was built around Dwight and they wouldn't have been anywhere near that level without him.

Pettit didn't have a good 59 postseason in terms of his rebounding. That along with an aging Slater Martin getting injured and the hawks not having a decent option to take his place. I don't think they had a point guard at all after Slater. Should have traded for McCarthy earlier.

[LA Bird]

Here are the results for round 35

Winner: 11 Howard

There were 8 voters in this round: Samurai, trelos6, AEnigma, trex_8063, falcolombardi, Proxy, capfan33, 70sFan

A total of 32 seasons received at least 1 vote: 09 Howard, 11 Howard, 16 Green, 17 Westbrook, 20 Butler, 20 Doncic, 21 Doncic, 21 Embiid, 22 Butler, 22 Doncic, 22 Embiid, 57 Pettit, 58 Pettit, 59 Pettit, 60 Pettit, 61 Baylor, 62 Baylor, 62 Pettit, 63 Pettit, 71 Frazier, 72 Frazier, 73 Frazier, 74 Lanier, 75 Gilmore, 76 Gilmore, 94 Miller, 94 Pippen, 95 Miller, 95 Pippen, 96 Hardaway, 96 Pippen, 97 Hill

Top 10 seasons: 11 Howard, 22 Embiid, 59 Pettit, 75 Gilmore, 94 Pippen, 96 Hardaway, 21 Embiid, 96 Pippen, 74 Lanier, 09 Howard

H2H record (1 season per player)
11 Howard: 0.722 (26-10)
22 Embiid: 0.636 (21-12)
75 Gilmore: 0.483 (14-15)
59 Pettit: 0.462 (12-14)
94 Pippen: 0.393 (11-17)
96 Hardaway: 0.393 (11-17)
74 Lanier: 0.308 (8-18)