Offseason thread vol 9 - RUN IT BYK

[MettaWorldPanda]

Caleb at the 4 worked last year but only when Yurtseven was playing down low. If Spo can manage not to play Caleb with Bam things will work out.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Really hoping Duncan returns to being elite shooter and stop putting his hands on players when he defends. Really hoping that Strus develops rim pressure skills that 3Hammy fantasized about. Hoping Vincent gains point guard skills. And I'm rooting for Nunn out in LaLa Land.

Might check in on LA forum. Haven't been on their since they banned me for telling them that Ball, Ingram and Kuzma were grooming to be trade pieces.

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The thing I say come true far more times than not, I’d say we’re headed in the right direction. I even have a good feeling about your boy so that should get you even more excited

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Caleb at the 4 worked last year but only when Yurtseven was playing down low. If Spo can manage not to play Caleb with Bam things will work out.

Do you have numbers and sample size for comparison? Because it’s looking a lot like Caleb and Bam are starting together lol

[AirP.]

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[AirP.]

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[IceColdCubano]

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Neither Brooklyn or Philly has the consistency to show they can hold a top seed, they are too hot/cold type team where they just fall in the standings because of cohesiveness. I can say a healthy Milwaukee and Boston will stay with us and probably more than capable of owning the top 2 seeds.

[AirP.]

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[AirP.]

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[Wiltside]

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Those Yurt triples tho

[Bishop45]

Kinda miss Kendrick Nunn-- the cookies and milk era with him and Herro was fun

[MettaWorldPanda]

Caleb at the 4 worked last year but only when Yurtseven was playing down low. If Spo can manage not to play Caleb with Bam things will work out.

Do you have numbers and sample size for comparison? Because it’s looking a lot like Caleb and Bam are starting together lol

I don’t doubt that this is what Spo goes with but my eye test is usually pretty reliable and we are not going very far with Martin as our 4. Teams will figure out ways to exploit us and we better not miss shots cause boards will be at a premium.

[AirP.]

So, after a full summer of Oladipo working hard, now is the time he needs to rest vs get more minutes for chemistry? This to me looks like another situation of Miami holding a player back citing rest/health to not have an issue with the distribution of minutes, maybe slow roll him to take Lowry's spot (or keep him on the bench and have Vincent take Lowry's spot)? With Herro being signed before next summer it's made sure that Miami has to cut salary next season and outside of Robinson who'd cost an asset to move, the next logical player would be Lowry who Oladipo or Vincent could replace in the starting lineup if Lowry is moved during the season. If Miami isn't doing "great" at the time, they could justify moving Lowry to Butler as trying to shake things up vs wasting a season since Lowry outcome of the 2021 plan.

Although Westbrook's expiring looks tempting it doesn't fix Miami's big man issue, maybe Miami tries to move Lowry to Dallas to shed some salary and get Powell's expiring in a package. With McGee signed as their starting center and them acquiring Wood, extending Kleber it's kind of moved Powell out of their rotation/future. So, if Dallas and Miami did a swap of Bertans and Robinson in the trade, that could make Bullock available who isn't fully guaranteed (5.5 mil is) next year and something like Lowry & Robinson for Powell, Bertans and Bullock is a viable trade but of course other players would be moving around also.

It seems very probable now that something semi big is going to happen during the season, it'll be interesting to see what it is.

[gom]

So, after a full summer of Oladipo working hard, now is the time he needs to rest vs get more minutes for chemistry? This to me looks like another situation of Miami holding a player back citing rest/health to not have an issue with the distribution of minutes, maybe slow roll him to take Lowry's spot (or keep him on the bench and have Vincent take Lowry's spot)?

Lowry's spot is pretty safe, imo. He's a starter beside Herro, Butler, & Bam. Spoelstra clearly has a ton of respect for Kyle Lowry.

Also, Spoelstra doesn't need to play Oladipo or Butler to know what they bring. He has that already in the bag. Either player can walk into any lineup and make it better. I expect Dipo to run the second squad, much like Herro was doing last season. I also think he'll be part of the closing lineup.

Coach is clearly concentrating on Herro, Martin, Strus/Robinson, and the Bam-Yurtseven combo. He's testing them. He's also looking over the young pack, and they know it. You can see they bring a lot more intensity into the game, because they are competing for spots still. I feel Smith may outplay Garrett for the two-way. That could definitely happen and would be a big deal (in Miami terms).

Martin is the starter besides Bam, beating out Strus and Robinson. Good. He deserves the chance. Worked his ass off.

Brady Hawk's dive into Herro's work is encouraging:

Watch on YouTube

Also, I know I keep saying this but it's also too early to judge Duncan Robinson, much less consider waiving him and stretching his contract. Thank you, guys. That was truly funny. I also wouldn't trade for Bertans, who would just bring congestion into a front court that (aside from lacking a name player beside Bam) looked pretty solid. This is the kind of basketball Spo likes to play. We may ge burned by it, but it's worked before too.

[gom]

Also some Bam porn:

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Miami gets two picks just inside the lottery and hits on both of them. (Blissful sigh.)

[gom]

AND, yes, I KNOW Jovic is playing against the third string of the Wolves, but I still liked his play:

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

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In game rep last night

[AirP.]

So, after a full summer of Oladipo working hard, now is the time he needs to rest vs get more minutes for chemistry? This to me looks like another situation of Miami holding a player back citing rest/health to not have an issue with the distribution of minutes, maybe slow roll him to take Lowry's spot (or keep him on the bench and have Vincent take Lowry's spot)?

Lowry's spot is pretty safe, imo. He's a starter beside Herro, Butler, & Bam. Spoelstra clearly has a ton of respect for Kyle Lowry.

Also, Spoelstra doesn't need to play Oladipo or Butler to know what they bring. He has that already in the bag. Either player can walk into any lineup and make it better. I expect Dipo to run the second squad, much like Herro was doing last season. I also think he'll be part of the closing lineup.

So, Miami will be good paying a lot of tax next year? The tax (not cap) is projected to be 162 next year, if Oladipo opts out, Miami is still projected to be over the tax with only 8 players under contract without paying Oladipo, Strus, Vincent or Yurtseven. I highly doubt that the FO just handed Herro that type of money without a plan or multiple plans on how to get off a bunch of salary by the end of the season.

Would it be nice to move Robison for expirings, sure but that still doesn't give Miami enough room under the projected tax next year while getting the roster to the minimum 14 players, one of the bigger contracts has to go without adding money for next season if this franchise is to stay under the tax.

To put it in an interesting light, going over the tax costs Miami ~10 million in profits that the non tax payers get from the tax payers plus Miami has to pay the tax, while also paying a large amount on contracts. That future contracts should very much impact this season, if they look like title contenders maybe they say screw it, we'll pay a year of the tax.

[gom]

So, after a full summer of Oladipo working hard, now is the time he needs to rest vs get more minutes for chemistry? This to me looks like another situation of Miami holding a player back citing rest/health to not have an issue with the distribution of minutes, maybe slow roll him to take Lowry's spot (or keep him on the bench and have Vincent take Lowry's spot)?

Lowry's spot is pretty safe, imo. He's a starter beside Herro, Butler, & Bam. Spoelstra clearly has a ton of respect for Kyle Lowry.

Also, Spoelstra doesn't need to play Oladipo or Butler to know what they bring. He has that already in the bag. Either player can walk into any lineup and make it better. I expect Dipo to run the second squad, much like Herro was doing last season. I also think he'll be part of the closing lineup.

So, Miami will be good paying a lot of tax next year? The tax (not cap) is projected to be 162 next year, if Oladipo opts out, Miami is still projected to be over the tax with only 8 players under contract without paying Oladipo, Strus, Vincent or Yurtseven. I highly doubt that the FO just handed Herro that type of money without a plan or multiple plans on how to get off a bunch of salary by the end of the season.

Would it be nice to move Robison for expirings, sure but that still doesn't give Miami enough room under the projected tax next year while getting the roster to the minimum 14 players, one of the bigger contracts has to go without adding money for next season if this franchise is to stay under the tax.

To put it in an interesting light, going over the tax costs Miami ~10 million in profits that the non tax payers get from the tax payers plus Miami has to pay the tax, while also paying a large amount on contracts. That future contracts should very much impact this season, if they look like title contenders maybe they say screw it, we'll pay a year of the tax.

I hear you AirP., but like you, I'm anxious to capitalize on Butler's prime. Lowry helps us win. I don't think Bertans does. His skill set is redundant and he is signed through 2024-2025. Doesn't seem like a good move to me.

We are contenders. We're at the top or thereabouts, but our players need to have solidarity and harmony in the locker room to go head-to-head with the best. Lowry helps there too.

2023-2024 (7 players guaranteed)

Bam: $32.6
Butler: $45.2
Herro: $27
Lowry: $29.7
Martin: $6.8
Robinson: $18.2
Jovic: $2.4

$161.9

Oladipo certainly ops out at $9.5. Miami will need to pay him much more to stay.
Highsmith: non-guaranteed ($1.9) (minimum, should be kept)
Dedmon: non-guaranteed ($4.3) (?)

[AirP.]

Lowry's spot is pretty safe, imo. He's a starter beside Herro, Butler, & Bam. Spoelstra clearly has a ton of respect for Kyle Lowry.

Also, Spoelstra doesn't need to play Oladipo or Butler to know what they bring. He has that already in the bag. Either player can walk into any lineup and make it better. I expect Dipo to run the second squad, much like Herro was doing last season. I also think he'll be part of the closing lineup.

Spoiler:

So, Miami will be good paying a lot of tax next year? The tax (not cap) is projected to be 162 next year, if Oladipo opts out, Miami is still projected to be over the tax with only 8 players under contract without paying Oladipo, Strus, Vincent or Yurtseven. I highly doubt that the FO just handed Herro that type of money without a plan or multiple plans on how to get off a bunch of salary by the end of the season.

Would it be nice to move Robison for expirings, sure but that still doesn't give Miami enough room under the projected tax next year while getting the roster to the minimum 14 players, one of the bigger contracts has to go without adding money for next season if this franchise is to stay under the tax.

To put it in an interesting light, going over the tax costs Miami ~10 million in profits that the non tax payers get from the tax payers plus Miami has to pay the tax, while also paying a large amount on contracts. That future contracts should very much impact this season, if they look like title contenders maybe they say screw it, we'll pay a year of the tax.

I hear you AirP., but like you, I'm anxious to capitalize on Butler's prime. Lowry helps us win. I don't think Bertans does. His skill set is redundant and he is signed through 2024-2025. Doesn't seem like a good move to me.

We are contenders. We're at the top or thereabouts, but our players need to have solidarity and harmony in the locker room to go head-to-head with the best. Lowry helps there too.

2023-2024 (7 players guaranteed)

Bam: $32.6
Butler: $45.2
Herro: $27
Lowry: $29.7
Martin: $6.8
Robinson: $18.2
Jovic: $2.4

$161.9

Oladipo certainly ops out at $9.5. Miami will need to pay him much more to stay.
Highsmith: non-guaranteed ($1.9) (minimum, should be kept)
Dedmon: non-guaranteed ($4.3) (?)

Bertans probably doesn't help but his contract is shorter than Robinson's and could free up Bullock (their current 3pt specialist) to be traded (Robinson takes his place) which Miami needs that half expiring contract. There are repercussions to signing Herro even if they're trying to retain an asset, which they did the previous year with Robinson, and he fell all the way out of the rotation and Miami already had Strus on the roster to replace him, even if he wasn't as good of a 3pt shooter.

But yes, maybe Miami will pay spend a lot of extra money for one year going into the tax after refusing to do that for now 4 offseasons since acquiring Butler.

The tax is expected to be 162 million.
Miami has to have a minimum of 14 players on your active roster.
Going over the tax means no extra money ~10 million for being a non tax payer.
Is the tax 1:1.5 dollars for every dollar over? I'm not sure where it starts at.
Not even paying Oladipo (if he opts out), Strus, Vincent and Yurtseven.

I think this is how the current NBA tax works.

The exact tax rates depend on a few different factors. For starters, and rather obviously, how far above the salary cap a team’s roster is:

For teams between $0 and $4,999,999 over the cap, the tax rate is $1.50 for every dollar over the cap.
The incremental maximum for this level is $7.5 million.
For teams between $5,000,000 and $9,999,999 over the cap, the tax rate is $1.75 for every dollar over the cap.
The incremental maximum for this level is $8.75 million.
For teams between $10,000,000 and $14,999,999 over the cap, the tax rate is $2.50 for every dollar over the cap.
The incremental maximum for this level is $12.5 million.
For teams between $15,000,000 and $19,999,999 over the cap, the tax rate is $3.25 for every dollar over the cap.
The incremental maximum for this level is $16.25 million.
And for teams $20,000,000 over the cap or above, the tax rate is $3.75 for every dollar over the cap, and increasing $0.50 for each additional $5,000,000 over $20,000,000.

https://hoopshype.com/2018/10/11/nba-luxury-tax/

[gom]

after refusing to do that for now 4 offseasons since acquiring Butler.

The tax is expected to be 162 million.
Miami has to have a minimum of 14 players on your active roster.
Going over the tax means no extra money ~10 million for being a non tax payer.
Is the tax 1:1 dollars for every dollar over? I'm not sure where it starts at.

If we keep everyone, we are $15.4 over cap and a $30m bill with 10 players.

Golden State pays tax every season for a while now. Miami can do it once, but if we don't get a chip or at least look competitive, Miami can waive Lowry and stretch him at $9.8 per 3 seasons. With Oladipo certainly opting out (unless he's injured again), Miami cuts payroll by $38m. Dedmon is also not guaranteed, but he's a bargain at his price. Likewise Haysmith. It's horrid, but this season is probably our best chance with Jimmy, and it's worth a lean year.