Orlando Magic preview: Predictions and analysis for the 2022-23 NBA season
Fortunately, some flickers of light emanate from a distant tunnel. The Magic’s intentional pivot away from quasi-respectable mediocrity in the 2020-21 season has already reaped the benefits of a lottery pick from Chicago that turned into Franz Wagner and a denuded roster bad enough to nab the top pick in the 2022 draft and land Banchero.
Other pieces have joined the assemblage as well, and even as the Magic got their brains beat in last season, a couple of them made noticeable strides. Wendell Carter Jr., the 23-year-old plucked from Chicago in the same deal that brought Wagner, is at worst either a low-end starter or a high-end third big and locked in on an extension that makes him a value in either slot. Cole Anthony showed enough improvement in his sophomore season to have real zip as a sixth man for what remains a scoring-starved team, especially if he can push his 3-point percentage from his 33.7 percent career mark into the 36-38 range.
Finally, Markelle Fultz didn’t take the floor until late in the season, and his 3-point shot continues to be a greater threat to baseline cameramen than opposing defenses. However, the eye test on his defense and playmaking in 18 games was impressive, and he shot midrange pull-ups more frequently and accurately than at any previous point in his pro career.
Alas, this wouldn’t be the Magic without some injury news. Fultz broke his toe and will be out “indefinitely,” which in Orlando terms is somewhere between two weeks and eternity. (Can we get an update on Michael Carter-Williams yet?) Also, Jonathan Isaac is theoretically back — remember him? — except, not so fast, apparently. He last appeared in a game in August 2020, but at media day, the Magic revealed he’s not yet recovered enough from a “minor” surgery in March to practice fully.
Isaac has played a grand total of 106 games in his five pro seasons, and that’s a shame. The peak version of Isaac is a multipositional defensive terror who could team with Banchero and Wagner to create some pretty potent centerless, switchable small-ball lineups. Now his greatest value to the organization might come in the form of a trade chip contract that is only partially guaranteed in 2023-24 and 2024-25.
Jalen Suggs? Mo Bamba? Ehhh … lemme get back to you on them. Suggs struggled in his rookie year, to put it gently, but the history of rookie point guards is that they get their butts kicked if they aren’t Chris Paul or Magic Johnson. More often, their progression in Year 2 is the real tell. Suggs’ iffy shooting and stiff pick-and-roll game are clear concerns, but his defense and transition instincts give him pathways to viability even if he never becomes an offensive dynamo in the half court. As for Bamba, his 38.1 percent shooting from 3 in 2021-22 helped him turn the corner into becoming a more consistently viable offensive weapon.
The Magic have some other projects on hand as well, although the odds seem against any of them being part of the imagined 2025 ensemble around Paolo and Franz: Chuma Okeke is a high-IQ combo forward with some real athletic limitations; it’s possibly he gets crowded out by the Wagner-Banchero-Isaac trio, especially if he can’t improve on a career 31.8 percent mark from 3. R.J. Hampton came from Denver in the Aaron Gordon trade and got plenty of minutes (1,402) and reps, but his stat line was fairly tragic; he’ll need to make a lot of progress in his third season to be a long-term keeper. At 21, with some impressive straight-line burst, it’s not impossible, but the minutes won’t be on a silver platter this time around. Bol is a classic dice roll for a front office that has always valued length; he’s 7-foot-2 and can shoot but is rail thin with iffy-at-best feel and instincts. Playing only 81 games in the last four years — that’s including summer league, playoffs and preseason — undoubtedly hasn’t helped his development. I wasn’t a big Houstan guy entering the draft (Orlando picked him at No. 32; I had him 44th on my board), but taking a shot on a big wing shooter is probably the right play for a team whose current roster overindexes on defenders with suspect shots.
With all that said, this season is about three players: Wagner, Banchero and whomever the Magic pick in the first round of the loaded 2023 draft. They’re perfectly set up to take some baby steps forward, without going so far as to screw up that 2023 pick.
In particular, the surprise selection of Banchero with the top pick in the 2022 draft is massively important for a team that was 30th in offensive efficiency, 29th in free-throw rate and 28th in 3-point shooting a year ago. Those stark figures might help explain how he got the nod in a three-horse race over lanky shot blocker Chet Holmgren and switchy, twitchy Jabari Smith. The Magic already were halfway decent on the defensive end a year ago (17th, partly helped by opponents frequently emptying their bench for the final six minutes, but still), but they can’t score.
Banchero won’t solve the 3-point deficiency via his shooting, but his ability to create shots for himself and make plays for others might result in easier attempts across the roster. Also, don’t sleep on the fact that the Magic were also terrible inside the arc. Orlando was 26th in 2-point shooting, 22nd at the rim and, as noted above, they never drew fouls.
Meanwhile, the Twitterati have been slow to come around on Wagner, but the 6-9 forward was one of the five best rookies in the league last season, just turned 21 and has All-Star upside. A breakout sophomore year can’t be ruled out, especially after his strong EuroBasket tournament for Germany.
Those two forwards are a great foundation, but the Magic offense likely won’t turn the corner for real until they identify some guards who can hit 3s coming around screens. Fultz, Suggs and Anthony all have their individual strengths, but getting by with them as a trio is a tough way to live. The dearth of backcourt playmaking makes every half-court possession a taffy pull.
Nonetheless, drawing Orlando on the schedule shouldn’t be a complete cakewalk, especially in the first 60 games (we may see a lot of strategic “back spasms” over the final two months, unfortunately). If Banchero is plug-and-play, it’s plausible the Magic could have a league-average defense and do enough damage in transition to offset the clunky half-court offense and lack of shooting.
This is likely the last season in the rebuilding doldrums before the pressure turns up as well; the Magic are now working on the rebuild after the rebuild after the rebuild after Howard left. But you can talk yourself into a future here despite the sleepy present because the Magic are a high-level playmaking guard or two from being legitimately good. They’re big, they defend, they have potential All-Stars at the three and four, and they carry an impeccably clean cap sheet into the future. Just don’t hold your breath waiting for those results to come in 2022-23.
Prediction: 21-61, 15th in East
Finally,, being Hollinger he has a formula to calculate the contract "value" anticipated for our players in 22-23 (with no rookie scale - what they are actually worth on the open market). Basically what they should be paid for the expected contributions in comparisons to the what the other players in the league are worth. Some noteworthy numbers
- Fultz, Hampton and Ross all project as Minimum players value-wise
- Wendell projects at $23M and Franz at $21M. Suggs at $5M
- Chuma comes in at $11M, Cole at $9M, Bamba at $6M, and Harris at $4M
- Shockingly, Isaac is still valued at $19M (if he plays)
