Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias?

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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#41 » by falcolombardi » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:40 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Portability, to the degree it makes sense, should mean the ability to play different roles in a team of their own era. Alex English, for example, was at various times, the primary outside shooter on Denver's front line, the primary interior scorer on that same line, the point forward, an off ball scorer, the primary front line man defender (playing next to Kiki Vandeweghe and Dan Issel), and the off ball rotator in that defense. It's one reason I like him a little better than his already good stats.

On the other hand, if you are good enough (prime Shaq for instance), everyone has to fit around you. If you go to the Lakers and they have an interior post up scorer, that player gets moved outside so Shaq can set up in his spots. So, if you are Shaq, you don't need portability because they will mold the team to fit you. If you are Otto Porter, you better learn to fit in.


The idea of -offensive- portability (defense impact somehow is never included despite being as portable as spacing and shooting) is that your value doesnt conflict with other offensive talent by minimizing them or being minimized by them

If lebron playing with offensive stars didnt lead to great results then the kind of backhanded "great floor raiser, not ceiling raiser" labels wouls make sense

Instead he creates all time to goat tier offense when playing with wade or kyrie and still is criticized as less portable because he doesnt curl off ball for jumpers. Is literally aesthetics >>>> results most of the time
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#42 » by penbeast0 » Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:18 pm

Can we not turn this into another "it's all about LeBron thread."
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#43 » by falcolombardi » Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:01 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Can we not turn this into another "it's all about LeBron thread."


Sorry lol,is just that he is the perfect example of the criticisms on the way portability is used
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#44 » by tsherkin » Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:54 pm

falcolombardi wrote: Is literally aesthetics >>>> results most of the time


this is a common issue with approach to evaluation. You see it in pro-Kobe/Melo arguments all the time (and before anyone loses their minds, yes, obviously those two are in distinctly different tiers as players, connected only by the aesthetics argument).
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#45 » by G35 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 2:57 pm

All the greats prior to 1980. All the great 3pt shooters prior to 2010....
I'm so tired of the typical......
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#46 » by OhayoKD » Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:16 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
VanWest82 wrote: He'd still have guys claiming Stockton was better (he wasn't)


He absolutely was. Every metric we have says this.

what metrics do we have for that?
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#47 » by letskissbro » Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:11 am

Chris Paul has legitimately amassed enough value to be in top 10 discussions at this point but he'll never be taken seriously again after last season's debacle.
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#48 » by Owly » Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:55 am

OhayoKD wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
VanWest82 wrote: He'd still have guys claiming Stockton was better (he wasn't)


He absolutely was. Every metric we have says this.

what metrics do we have for that?

For general context this is re Stockton-Thomas
What metrics go the other way?
Every metric I've looked at closely
versus 76ers on-off net
'94 on-off
(one could say cumulative total known on-off, though not like for like here)
Prime WoWYR
Career WoWYR
All Reference box composites (career value, including Hollinger EWA)
All Reference box composites (rate)
All Reference box composites playoffs (career value, including Hollinger EWA)
All Reference box composites playoffs (rate) [BPM close (S:6.01, T:5.97)]
Pelton WARP (and extrapolating from their career WARPs [S:303, T:129] Pelton Win% [i.e. rate WARP])
note: Stockton's vast longevity advantage puts him at a disadvantage in raw rate comparisons.
(edit: and fwiw, better shooter/spacer, better non-box defensive reputation and very strong career impact numbers that mostly aren't covered above because they can't be done like-for-like but which support this non-box value).

Perhaps newer, better numbers may tilt the other way (BPM-like numbers perhaps bullish on Thomas)? I'm very much not up date with the state-of-the art stuff (or semi-recent public stuff) ... so maybe there are numbers, one has to be open to it. But, whilst I can't speak for what numbers another poster was thinking of, I think most of these are easily available and I would suggest should be known or looked up and found to tilt in the same direction mostly by substantial margins, suggest that onus really should be on anyone making the Thomas case to find the numbers for him.

Edit 2: Fwiw I didn't think peaks but ...
all Reference box composites peak (rate)
all Reference boc composites peak (cumulative value)

playoffs starts being harder in concept but
If no qualifiers (e.g. minutes)
All Reference box composites peak (rate)
Thomas does have the highest VORP season but this is partly a function minutes so is team contextual and rewards long series and is not something I'd look at.
Looking at a 10 game qualification
Stockton takes all Reference box composite peaks
Looking at a 500 minute qualification prerequisite
Stockton has the highest PER, the highest WS/48 whilst the BPM is an exact tie (7.80) - this is Thomas's best season overall in this regard, Stockton has 5 better that don't meet this minutes qualification including one that's only 22 minutes short (478).
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#49 » by Owly » Wed Oct 19, 2022 5:47 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
VanWest82 wrote: He'd still have guys claiming Stockton was better (he wasn't)


He absolutely was. Every metric we have says this.

what metrics do we have for that?

This kind of got lost in junky phrasing in the reply above but are you aware of measures in the other direction (i.e. in Isiah Thomas's favor)?
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#50 » by prolific passer » Wed Oct 19, 2022 6:01 pm

70s is pretty much the decade to look at for underrated players as they get overlooked for being the so called worst decade in nba history.

I always liked Dave Cowens. Hondo and Don Nelson said he was more competitive than Russell ever was.
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#51 » by VanWest82 » Thu Oct 20, 2022 2:53 am

Owly wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
He absolutely was. Every metric we have says this.

what metrics do we have for that?

This kind of got lost in junky phrasing in the reply above but are you aware of measures in the other direction (i.e. in Isiah Thomas's favor)?

Rather than a direction, let's try a thought experiment. How does Isiah's career play out with an MVP PnR finisher and on his team? How does Stockton's career play out as a #1 option on a team with a bunch of defense first players? Perhaps it's worth considering more than just the (lack of) good metrics we have from that era.
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#52 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:29 am

VanWest82 wrote:
Owly wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:what metrics do we have for that?

This kind of got lost in junky phrasing in the reply above but are you aware of measures in the other direction (i.e. in Isiah Thomas's favor)?

Rather than a direction, let's try a thought experiment. How does Isiah's career play out with an MVP PnR finisher and on his team? How does Stockton's career play out as a #1 option on a team with a bunch of defense first players? Perhaps it's worth considering more than just the (lack of) good metrics we have from that era.

'
I don't understand what you believe this tells us? Everyone's speculation is going to be different and all it will be is pure speculation. And its clear from how you presented your hypothetical that you are already trying to stack the deck for Zeke. Pointless.

You think Zeke had a better career. Cool. Now show us why. Not see which one of us can write the most compelling fan fiction. Because that's what it would be.
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#53 » by 70sFan » Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:37 am

Not necessarily "recency bias", but do you think that Magic gets underrated recently (on RealGM) because of low scoring numbers and not a lot of three point shooting? I see more and more people thinking that Curry is clearly better offensive player than him and I wonder if that'd be the case had Magic scored 25+ppg in his best years.
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#54 » by BuddyBuckets » Thu Oct 20, 2022 1:38 pm

Zion. Coz he's been injured everyone talks like he isn't an all star, all NBA talent lately.
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Re: Which player gets underrated the most because of recency bias? 

Post#55 » by VanWest82 » Fri Oct 21, 2022 12:29 am

Texas Chuck wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:
Owly wrote:This kind of got lost in junky phrasing in the reply above but are you aware of measures in the other direction (i.e. in Isiah Thomas's favor)?

Rather than a direction, let's try a thought experiment. How does Isiah's career play out with an MVP PnR finisher and on his team? How does Stockton's career play out as a #1 option on a team with a bunch of defense first players? Perhaps it's worth considering more than just the (lack of) good metrics we have from that era.

'
I don't understand what you believe this tells us? Everyone's speculation is going to be different and all it will be is pure speculation. And its clear from how you presented your hypothetical that you are already trying to stack the deck for Zeke. Pointless.

You think Zeke had a better career. Cool. Now show us why. Not see which one of us can write the most compelling fan fiction. Because that's what it would be.

It isn’t fan fiction to point out that one guy had an all around offensive game to excel in any situation whereas the other didn’t. We saw multiple situations where Mailman struggled in the playoffs and Jazz needed Stockton to step up and be the #1 to get them over the hump. He didn’t/couldn’t. Isiah could/did.

Isiah winning the title twice as the best guy is why he had the better career. He got it done in the playoffs against Bird, Michael, and Magic and actually won titles whereas Stockton, while very heady and impressive, didn't step up his game beyond being #2.

Edit: this is also why I have Nash and Paul ahead of Stockton. John has the stats but both Nash and Paul succeeded as the guy for their teams in the playoffs vs. some very tough opponents. Their stats are close enough and their statures in NBA history close enough that it makes sense to categorize them this way.

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