FiveThirtyEight Predicts 38 Wins - Over or Under?

[BNM]

We've already had a thread/poll on the ESPN prediction of 35 wins, but that was before preseason, final roster moves and news that Gary Payton II will be out for at least 2 more weeks.

So, let's try it again, this time starting with FiveThirtyEight's prediction of 38 wins: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everyones-a-favorite-in-our-2022-23-nba-forecast/



Based one what you've seen so far, how many wins do you predict the Blazers will have in 2022-23?

[HoopsFanAZ]

1. A healthy Damian Lillard.
2. Multiple teams in full tank mode guaranteeing wins especially in the 2nd half of the season.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Based on what I've seen in pre-season, the Blazers wont even sniff 38 wins. I have to believe they will do better than what we've seen so far, but you just never know. I just don't see Simon's stepping up and filling CJ's role. I think Simon's plays better without Lillard than with him. I do not want to see him resort to being a chucker like he seems to do when Lillard is playing. When Lillard went out, Simon's stepped up and didnt settle for the 3 point shot. He went to the basket, stepped in for a short jumper, etc. That's the Simon's I want to see. Otherwise, send him packing. Don't just defer to Lillard.

[Goldbum]

I've been listening to a lot of national radio and podcasts and NOBODY has the Blazers even in the play in. If that's at all accurate we need to throw this season into turning Ant into a Superstar and Shaedon into a future star. I think we keep Grant but need to pair him with another combo forward (like Pat Williams) and acquire our long term starting center. If trading Dame could net us Ayton and Pat Williams in some sort of three team deal I would be all over it.

[Wizenheimer]

I've been listening to a lot of national radio and podcasts and NOBODY has the Blazers even in the play in. If that's at all accurate we need to throw this season into turning Ant into a Superstar and Shaedon into a future star. I think we keep Grant but need to pair him with another combo forward (like Pat Williams) and acquire our long term starting center. If trading Dame could net us Ayton and Pat Williams in some sort of three team deal I would be all over it.

ok then...lol...Simons can be a superstar this season, but the Blazers, with Dame-SuperSimons-Hart-Grant-Nurkic-Sharpe-Winslow can't even make the play-in?

if Simons has superstar upside he for sure needs to be consistently flashing it at 23 in his 5th season. Superstars don't show up when they are 28

Portland isn't going to trade Dame unless he asks to be traded...not a chance. And that extension sure seemed to telegraph he wasn't planning on asking for a trade. So maybe, just maybe, what should happen is that Portland should trade Simons. If he has that kind of upside it should be obvious to other teams and Portland should get a great return, hopefully for a SF/PF. Then move Hart/Sharpe to SG and run with the best forward tandem the Blazers have had in the Dame era

[zzaj]

I've been listening to a lot of national radio and podcasts and NOBODY has the Blazers even in the play in. If that's at all accurate we need to throw this season into turning Ant into a Superstar and Shaedon into a future star. I think we keep Grant but need to pair him with another combo forward (like Pat Williams) and acquire our long term starting center. If trading Dame could net us Ayton and Pat Williams in some sort of three team deal I would be all over it.

ok then...lol...Simons can be a superstar this season, but the Blazers, with Dame-SuperSimons-Hart-Grant-Nurkic-Sharpe-Winslow can't even make the play-in?

if Simons has superstar upside he for sure needs to be consistently flashing it at 23 in his 5th season. Superstars don't show up when they are 28

Portland isn't going to trade Dame unless he asks to be traded...not a chance. And that extension sure seemed to telegraph he wasn't planning on asking for a trade. So maybe, just maybe, what should happen is that Portland should trade Simons. If he has that kind of upside it should be obvious to other teams and Portland should get a great return, hopefully for a SF/PF. Then move Hart/Sharpe to SG and run with the best forward tandem the Blazers have had in the Dame era

WIZ SIGHTING!

I agree with you. All this talk of 'trade Lillard'...I would be much more comfortable trading Simons. I know people are loving the kid, but I just don't really see anything there other than a "natural" scorer in the same way CJ was a "natural". Hart on the other hand plays both sides of the ball and is naturally suited to be a 2 guard.

[Case2012]

Simons and Nurk need to go. Their combined salary plus a few picks (after we change the protections on the one owed to Chicago) should get us a decent 3/4 right? But who? No one really seems to fit the need that would be available.

Tobias Harris? No, not worth it either.

Gordon Hayward? Simons and Nas with his extension next season would work. Big gamble on an older injury prone player.

Ben Simmons? Why would the nets do that? Durant obviously would be worth the gamble but the asking price would be insane.

Siakam would work great but again, asking price would be crazy plus they already have fvv and Trent Jr. Simons for OG would be ideal but salaries don't match and the same problems with fvv and Trent and Masai would probably want Sharpe included somehow.

Mikel Bridges would be great but he's probably untouchable.

Simons and Sharpe + 3 firsts for Jalen Brown? That seems like an overpay and still probably wouldn't get the job done.

I like the idea of Hield and Turner but Indy has mathurin, duarte and haliburton already and Nurkic would have to go to a third team. Hield is still undersized and doesn't play defense but his shooting is elite.

[DaVoiceMaster]

I've been listening to a lot of national radio and podcasts and NOBODY has the Blazers even in the play in. If that's at all accurate we need to throw this season into turning Ant into a Superstar and Shaedon into a future star. I think we keep Grant but need to pair him with another combo forward (like Pat Williams) and acquire our long term starting center. If trading Dame could net us Ayton and Pat Williams in some sort of three team deal I would be all over it.

ok then...lol...Simons can be a superstar this season, but the Blazers, with Dame-SuperSimons-Hart-Grant-Nurkic-Sharpe-Winslow can't even make the play-in?

if Simons has superstar upside he for sure needs to be consistently flashing it at 23 in his 5th season. Superstars don't show up when they are 28

Portland isn't going to trade Dame unless he asks to be traded...not a chance. And that extension sure seemed to telegraph he wasn't planning on asking for a trade. So maybe, just maybe, what should happen is that Portland should trade Simons. If he has that kind of upside it should be obvious to other teams and Portland should get a great return, hopefully for a SF/PF. Then move Hart/Sharpe to SG and run with the best forward tandem the Blazers have had in the Dame era

I'm not opposed to moving Simon's. I don't see him excelling with Lillard on the floor.

[Case2012]

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Is this team with a healthy Dame better than our current roster? Worst defense in history probably but they'd score 130 a game.

[DusterBuster]

Over if healthy. If this team gets any extended injury bug, easy under.

[DusterBuster]

If the team is healthy and still trending towards the under, I question if Billups still has a job in 2023.