How Much Will Our Young Guys Sign Their Next Contract For?

MortSahlfan · Post #1 » by **MortSahlfan** » Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:12 pm

Whether it's on this team or another.. I'm just going with guys we drafted; feel free to add whoever.

To avoid confusion and inflation and agreements years down the road, let's assume we're talking about this season's money but assuming they'll be paid by the time they're rookie contract is up.

Cade - MAX
Ivey - Near MAX
Stew - 15/yr
Bey - 20/yr
Duren - 20/yr
Hayes - 5/yr
Livers - 8/yr

Is it possible to keep Cade, Ivey, Stew, Bey, and Duren? It wouldn't surprise me if it happened, but if someone went, I'd guess Stew or Bey.... Stew is one of my favorites, but we have so many big men. Bey doesn't seem unique, and his shooting or defense hasn't improved, but he is decent and strong. Good guy. I like all our guys, and I like most of their playing styles.

I do have one fear. That another team swoops up Cade. Maybe he doesn't like sharing the ball? Maybe he thinks Ivey's ties to Detroit are too close? Maybe he's tired of the losing? I doubt it, but I think both sides are cool with each other, that Cade would let Troy know to facilitate a trade, but no one has turned down the rookie supermax yet, so hopefully the trend continues. Detroit has a tendency of allowing guys BLOSSOM the minute they leave. Even today, guys come here and seem to have their worst percentages............. except Cory Joseph. He will start for the Pistons until he's Tom Brady's age. You watch!

I think Hami can get 10/yr based on last season, but I would bet my life Casey will not play Hami much this year. Less than 20 minutes, if that. I expect DNPs in favor of the other guys. I don't know why. Casey constantly mentioned it during post-game, "I don't know why I sat Hami for so long" or "I have to find him more than 20 minutes, he's our best perimeter defender, our most athletic play-maker, has an edge, never takes a play off" - over and over. I don't believe the "We're holding him to evaluate other players" - that's not an organization worthy of signing anyone, and I think guys are more conscious of stats than ever. Players and everyone else.

edmunder_prc · Post #2 » by **edmunder_prc** » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:04 pm

Bey isnt worth **** at the moment.

Looking at the Grizzles they have guys like Bane and Dillon Brooks - those guys help their team win. Bey is all bark and no bite. His only talent is hitting 3s and he refuses to play that role.

GreekAlex · Post #3 » by **GreekAlex** » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:13 pm

I’m not sure about the numbers yet but if Stew can hit that 3 like he has been, he definitely upped his number.

bstein14 · Post #4 » by **bstein14** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:29 am

Ask me about Bey/Stew/Hayes/Cade/Livers in 6 months... its too early to tell right now. Cade likely will be a max extension guy, or something went terribly wrong. Ayton just got the max (although only 4 years instead of 5) so Cade would have to be below that level of player to not get the max. Even if he underperforms for us a bit, he'll still likely get a max deal on potential kind of like how Wiggins was the #1 pick and got the MAX rookie extension.

Way to early to even think about Ivey and Duren they haven't even played their first official NBA games yet.

Kilo · Post #5 » by **Kilo** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:51 pm

Bey would have been better drafted to a veteran laden contender team where he would have been forced into a support role and flourished. He will be more successful at his next stop when he can accept that lesser role. He won't be able to accept that in Detroit.

Bey is a 5th option or 6th man on a good team.

bstein14 · Post #6 » by **bstein14** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 3:39 pm

Kilo wrote:Bey would have been better drafted to a veteran laden contender team where he would have been forced into a support role and flourished. He will be more successful at his next stop when he can accept that lesser role. He won't be able to accept that in Detroit.

Bey is a 5th option or 6th man on a good team.

I think Bey will eventually find himself in a role as a third option on a good team... similar to Tobias Harris for Philly.... although Maxey has quickley taken over that role. He's not good enough yet to be a third option on a good team, but he's still young. By age 25 or 26 right in his prime he'll be a solid third guy.

Hard to say yet whether or not we've got #1 and #2 in Cade and Ivey or not.

If they're still together in 2 years. (24-25 season)

Cade (Age 23) 4th year in the league #1 option
Ivey (Age 23) 3rd year in the league #2 option
Bey (Age 25) 5th year in the league #3 option
Stewart (Age 23) 5th year in the league #4 option
Duren (Age 20) 3rd year in the league #5 option on offense, but great rebounding and D.
-----
Bench
Hayes (Age 23) 5th year in the league
Livers (Age 26) 4th year in the league
Bagley (Age 25) 7th year in the league
2023 First (Age 21?) 2nd year in the league
2024 First (Age 19 or 20) Rookie (or could be a vet FA signing)

That said, its obviously super rare for players to stick together for that many years so its almost certain that some out of the Bey, Stewart, Hayes, Livers, Bagley group won't be here in two years.

MortSahlfan · Post #7 » by **MortSahlfan** » Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:43 pm

If Bagley can get paid 13/yr, Stew actually plays defense and can shoot much better. He's tougher, and never had his motor questioned. One guy is injury-prone, one guy isn't. Stew has Detroit Piston DNA. All three of our title teams had the same identity. Hard work, defense first, sharing on offense.

bstein14 · Post #8 » by **bstein14** » Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:46 pm

MortSahlfan wrote:If Bagley can get paid 13/yr, Stew actually plays defense and can shoot much better. He's tougher, and never had his motor questioned. One guy is injury-prone, one guy isn't. Stew has Detroit Piston DNA. All three of our title teams had the same identity. Hard work, defense first, sharing on offense.

Bagley getting $13 million per year likely puts Bey and Stewart both at $18-20+ million per year. Bagley is a backup and Bey and Stewart starters. Bey and Stewart are both going to be paid more than Bagley without question.

Manocad · Post #9 » by **Manocad** » Tue Oct 18, 2022 3:04 pm

I have no clue since the market dictates salaries, not comparative contracts.

MortSahlfan · Post #10 » by **MortSahlfan** » Wed Oct 19, 2022 9:43 pm

bstein14 wrote:
MortSahlfan wrote:If Bagley can get paid 13/yr, Stew actually plays defense and can shoot much better. He's tougher, and never had his motor questioned. One guy is injury-prone, one guy isn't. Stew has Detroit Piston DNA. All three of our title teams had the same identity. Hard work, defense first, sharing on offense.

Bagley getting $13 million per year likely puts Bey and Stewart both at $18-20+ million per year. Bagley is a backup and Bey and Stewart starters. Bey and Stewart are both going to be paid more than Bagley without question.

Right.. It's just that some think Stew isn't worth 20/yr, when he provides so much more... I just don't understand Weaver's thinking. We got a guy who is horrible on defense, had a really bad situation in Sac, and can't shoot a 3 worth a lick, so I'm not sure why we paid him so much, at all. We have Stew, Duren, and Nerlens Noel - probably another Weaver guy in OKC. And Bogdan is going to play the 4 because he can't guard 3's at his age.

Post #11 » by **theBigLip** » Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:03 am

Cade and Ivey get max contracts. Stewart needs a full year of shooting 3s so he can be something besides an undersized center. Duren is probably Max as well since he (and Ivey) has the most years before they extend.

Manocad · Post #12 » by **Manocad** » Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:05 am

MortSahlfan wrote:
bstein14 wrote:
MortSahlfan wrote:If Bagley can get paid 13/yr, Stew actually plays defense and can shoot much better. He's tougher, and never had his motor questioned. One guy is injury-prone, one guy isn't. Stew has Detroit Piston DNA. All three of our title teams had the same identity. Hard work, defense first, sharing on offense.

Bagley getting $13 million per year likely puts Bey and Stewart both at $18-20+ million per year. Bagley is a backup and Bey and Stewart starters. Bey and Stewart are both going to be paid more than Bagley without question.

Right.. It's just that some think Stew isn't worth 20/yr, when he provides so much more... I just don't understand Weaver's thinking. We got a guy who is horrible on defense, had a really bad situation in Sac, and can't shoot a 3 worth a lick, so I'm not sure why we paid him so much, at all. We have Stew, Duren, and Nerlens Noel - probably another Weaver guy in OKC. And Bogdan is going to play the 4 because he can't guard 3's at his age.

Well, the answer to that is pretty simple--clearly Weaver sees something more in Bagley than you do.

MotownMadness · Post #13 » by **MotownMadness** » Thu Oct 20, 2022 3:30 pm

How many 5 year max rookie deals can you have on your roster?

Rip32 · Post #14 » by **Rip32** » Thu Oct 20, 2022 3:43 pm

MortSahlfan wrote:Whether it's on this team or another.. I'm just going with guys we drafted; feel free to add whoever.

To avoid confusion and inflation and agreements years down the road, let's assume we're talking about this season's money but assuming they'll be paid by the time they're rookie contract is up.

Cade - MAX
Ivey - Near MAX
Stew - 15/yr
Bey - 20/yr
Duren - 20/yr
Hayes - 5/yr
Livers - 8/yr

Is it possible to keep Cade, Ivey, Stew, Bey, and Duren? It wouldn't surprise me if it happened, but if someone went, I'd guess Stew or Bey.... Stew is one of my favorites, but we have so many big men. Bey doesn't seem unique, and his shooting or defense hasn't improved, but he is decent and strong. Good guy. I like all our guys, and I like most of their playing styles.

I do have one fear. That another team swoops up Cade. Maybe he doesn't like sharing the ball? Maybe he thinks Ivey's ties to Detroit are too close? Maybe he's tired of the losing? I doubt it, but I think both sides are cool with each other, that Cade would let Troy know to facilitate a trade, but no one has turned down the rookie supermax yet, so hopefully the trend continues. Detroit has a tendency of allowing guys BLOSSOM the minute they leave. Even today, guys come here and seem to have their worst percentages............. except Cory Joseph. He will start for the Pistons until he's Tom Brady's age. You watch!

I think Hami can get 10/yr based on last season, but I would bet my life Casey will not play Hami much this year. Less than 20 minutes, if that. I expect DNPs in favor of the other guys. I don't know why. Casey constantly mentioned it during post-game, "I don't know why I sat Hami for so long" or "I have to find him more than 20 minutes, he's our best perimeter defender, our most athletic play-maker, has an edge, never takes a play off" - over and over. I don't believe the "We're holding him to evaluate other players" - that's not an organization worthy of signing anyone, and I think guys are more conscious of stats than ever. Players and everyone else.

Bey is the quintessential whatever it takes for the team to win guy. Yesterday he rebounded, attacked the rim and facilitated. He's still capable of scoring 20 plus a game. He should and will be paid according.
The book is still out on Cade. The Pistons may pay a supermax but personally I don't think he's worth it

Post #15 » by **theBigLip** » Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:11 pm

MotownMadness wrote:How many 5 year max rookie deals can you have on your roster?

Good question. Don’t the Celtics have an issue w Jalen Brown because of this?

bstein14 · Post #16 » by **bstein14** » Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:14 pm

theBigLip wrote:
MotownMadness wrote:How many 5 year max rookie deals can you have on your roster?

Good question. Don’t the Celtics have an issue w Jalen Brown because of this?

As many as you want.

bstein14 · Post #17 » by **bstein14** » Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:21 pm

Cade would have to be all-nba to be eligible for the "super-max" 30% of the cap coming off his rookie deal. I like Cade, but right now that seems unlikely by year 4. I could see him being an all-star by year 4 but unlikely to be all-nba.

regular rookie max extension starts at 25% of the cap, or likely 5 years $220+ million range for Cade.
super-max rookie extension for all-nba players before their 5th season is 30% of the cap or likely 5 years $265+ million range for Cade.

Regular Max Rookie Extension
$38m + $41m + $44m + $47m + $50m = $220 million over 5 years

"Super-Max" Rookie Extension
$45m + $49m + $53m + $57m + $61m = $265 million over 5 years

Those aren't exact but rounded estimates based on a $150 million cap in 25-26 season. It realistically could be more if the NBA gets some big money coming in from a big streaming service such as YouTube or Amazon, etc.

Post #18 » by **theBigLip** » Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:38 pm

bstein14 wrote:
theBigLip wrote:
MotownMadness wrote:How many 5 year max rookie deals can you have on your roster?

Good question. Don’t the Celtics have an issue w Jalen Brown because of this?

As many as you want.

I just found a great article explaining Brown’s situation. A little different than I thought: http://www.spotrac.com/research/NBA/next-contract-series-jaylen-brown-1572/