NBA Superstars production in playoffs based on faced defenses

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Bitch bitch bitch, Bird was a power forward.
Actually Bird was usually defended by small forwards because the power forwards were needed to defend McHale and Maxwell on that Celtic team that played 2 power forwards. Also you needed to take away Bird’s dribble to stop Bird from killing you with passing and a small forward could take away Bird’s dribble.

Teams could defend McHale and Maxwell with small forwards because they were finesse inside scorers rather then true power scorers. But McHale and Maxwell were not going to do any damage from the outside so you at least get your power forward into position for defensive boards when they defend McHale and Maxwell even though both of them were pretty unguardable.

Power forwards were not fast enough to take away Bird’s dribble. But with a Bird Parish Wedman line up Bird would torture any little man that trued to guard him by scoring inside one on one as a power forward on a small. You could put the small forward on Wednan who shot deep 2s but then Bird can’t have his dribble stopped by the power forward and Bird could twist a power forward into pretzels on the inside or kick to a cutter.

[WestGOAT]

I may try something like that during the summer.

Might also have a look at this depending if I have enough time to spare

using the data, i decided to adjust a player's post-season rTS% by their opponent's rDRtg and see what player's looked like from the regular season to the postseason to see if the quality of opponent would help or hurt any perceptions of players that we tend to think of as getting better or dropping off. for adjusted post-season rTS%, i did the following:

1) first calculated an unadjusted value using the percentage of games played against each type of defense and multiplied by the rTS% for that type of opponent taking OP's data.

2) calculated the average opponent rDRtg for each player. i weighted by number of games played. for average, good, and elite defenses, i assumed a rDRtg at the midpoint of the range (0, -3, -5.5). for bad defenses, i assumed +3. for all-time great defenses, i assumed -8.5 (wilt might be closer to -9.5, but it only changes the results by 0.1%).

3) assuming 2 DRtg points = 1 TS%, i adjusted rTS% by the rDRtg of a player's opponents.

then i just subtracted post-season adjusted rTS% from regular season rTS% and got the list below. Not hugely surprising, but still we get hakeem being ridiculous as usual, wade being even better than i expected, a decent clump around 0, and then malone and poor david robinson looking terrible as usual.

Code: Select all

Name         PS-RS rTS%
Russell      +2.194
Hakeem       +2.19
Wade         +1.47
Nowitzki     +0.793
Duncan       +0.431
Kobe         +0.41
Jordan       +0.284
Wilt         +0.189
Shaq         -0.051
Lebron       -0.243
Kareem       -0.571
Bird         -0.728
Magic        -0.832
Moses        -1.518
Durant       -1.844
Garnett      -2.073
Ewing        -2.363
Harden       -2.562
Curry        -2.81
Barkley      -3.015
Robinson     -4.039
K Malone     -4.458



[/quote]

Can you example of your calculation for Russel? Would like to do something similar in a convenient way, so I'm interested in how you were exactly adjusting for opposition TS%

[f4p]

I may try something like that during the summer.

Might also have a look at this depending if I have enough time to spare


Can you example of your calculation for Russel? Would like to do something similar in a convenient way, so I'm interested in how you were exactly adjusting for opposition TS%

Sorry if this explanation isn't what you were asking for but for Russell I just took OP's data:

Bill Russell (1959-66):

RS: 44.0 mpg, 23.7 rpg, 4.3 apg, 16.2 ppg on 44.1% FG, 57.2% FT and 47.2% TS (-0.41% rTS)
Against Bad Defenses (12.0% of playoffs games): 45.9 mpg, 24.6 rpg, 5.3 apg, 19.4 ppg on 51.5% FG, 60.8% FT, 55.0% TS (+6.32 rTS%)
Against Average Defenses (67.0% of playoffs games): -- mpg, 26.6 rpg, 4.7 apg, 18.9 ppg on 44.6% FG, 64.6% FT, 49.5% TS (+1.84 rTS%)
Against Good Defenses (13.75% of playoffs games): -- mpg, 27.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, 15.8 ppg on 42.7% FG, 51.2% FT, 45.9% TS (-1.89 rTS%)
Against Elite Defenses (11.0% of playoffs games): 42.8 mpg, 26.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 16.4 ppg on 42.7% FG, 60.9% FT, 45.4% TS (-1.90 rTS%)
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games):--

He has the percentage of each game played against the different levels of opponents and so I just took the rTS% from each level and weighted it by the percentage of games ((0.12*6.32 + 0.67*1.84 + 0.1375*(-1.89) + 0.11*(-1.90) + 0*0) / (0.12+0.67+0.1375+0.11) = +1.47 rTS%). Note the game totals for Russell add up to 103.75% for some reason.

Then I took the rDRtg for each level of opponents by taking the midpoint of OP's ranges and also weighted it by the percentage of games ((0.12*3 + 0.67*0 + 0.1375*(-3) + 0.11*(-5.5) + 0*(-8.5)) / (0.12+0.67+0.1375+0.11)) = -0.63 rDRtg).

Since 1 TS% is equal to 2 DRTG points, and since negative DRtg means you played better defenses than average and your rTS% should be adjusted upwards, I just divided -0.63 by -2 to say that I needed to adjust Russell's rTS% of +1.47% by +0.31%, which comes out to +1.78%. Taking OP's regular season rTS% of -0.41, I got a delta of +2.19% from the regular season to the playoffs.

[homecourtloss]

Lebron, Entire Career, Playoffs:

Vs. Bad Defenses (8.96% of total games):
40.4 mpg, 28.8/9.4/7.4 (rTS%: 5.9%)

Vs. Average Defenses (45.81% of total games):
40.4 mpg, 28.8/9.3/7.4 (rTS%: 5.1%)

Vs. Good Defenses (23.22% of total games):
43.6 mpg, 26.7/8.9/7.5 (rTS% 1.5%)

Vs. Elite Defenses (16.44% of total games):
42.6 mpg, 26.8/8.4/6.9 (rTS% -3.15%)

Vs. All Time Great Defenses (5.58% of total games):
42.0 mpg, 25.8/7.1/6.0 (rTS% 0.64)

These numbers aren’t correct. A few others I’ve seen as well. Not sure what this poster is doing.

[ty 4191]

Lebron, Entire Career, Playoffs:

Vs. Bad Defenses (8.96% of total games):
40.4 mpg, 28.8/9.4/7.4 (rTS%: 5.9%)

Vs. Average Defenses (45.81% of total games):
40.4 mpg, 28.8/9.3/7.4 (rTS%: 5.1%)

Vs. Good Defenses (23.22% of total games):
43.6 mpg, 26.7/8.9/7.5 (rTS% 1.5%)

Vs. Elite Defenses (16.44% of total games):
42.6 mpg, 26.8/8.4/6.9 (rTS% -3.15%)

Vs. All Time Great Defenses (5.58% of total games):
42.0 mpg, 25.8/7.1/6.0 (rTS% 0.64)

These numbers aren’t correct. A few others I’ve seen as well. Not sure what this poster is doing.

You want to take a stab at it? By all means, please, let me know what the errors are, exactly, and I'll fix them. Thanks!

PS: Do you have any idea how many hours this took 70'sFan and I?

[Ginoboleee]

To 70sFan and/or Ty4191,
As we near the 150th post in this informative/entertaining thread, I have a request...

Can you confirm that I have the (a) implicit argument of this project straight (Steps 1-4), as well as it's (b) likely narrative implications (Step 5)?

Step 1. By statistically analyzing historic playoff performances, for legendary players across a wide range of eras, we can learn something important.
Step 2. We can derive valid/helpful/insightful/meaningful statistics about Team Defense, and thus Team Defense Quality.
Step 3. This is the method to do so.
Step 4. This method has been accurately and successfully applied.

(seems the last couple steps have been challenged at least a bit thus far in the thread; and eventually when I get my sea legs here I will be in a better position to challenge the more fundamental ones myself)

Step 5. Therefore, we have (preliminary? suggestive?) evidence to further support the following narrative conclusions:
5a. Wilt is the GOAT.
5b. Kareem is over-rated.
5c. MJ gets another gold star ahead of LBJ.

Can either of the leaders of this thread (or anybody else who is fair-minded, friendly, and constructive) tell me which Step or Steps I have wrong? Please and thank you.

[ty 4191]

To 70sFan and/or Ty4191,

Step 5. Therefore, we have (preliminary? suggestive?) evidence to further support the following narrative conclusions:
5a. Wilt is the GOAT.
5b. Kareem is over-rated.
5c. MJ gets another gold star ahead of LBJ.

You're made no logical errors; these narratives are all fully supported by the data.

[70sFan]

To 70sFan and/or Ty4191,

Step 5. Therefore, we have (preliminary? suggestive?) evidence to further support the following narrative conclusions:
5a. Wilt is the GOAT.
5b. Kareem is over-rated.
5c. MJ gets another gold star ahead of LBJ.

You're made no logical errors; these narratives are all fully supported by the data.

LeBron looks sligthly better by that than Jordan does though. Kareem looks fantastic by these numbers as well, proving that he's the GOAT caliber scorer against top defenses. Wilt also looks better than some might expect, I don't think it makes him look like the GOAT.

[MyUniBroDavis]

To 70sFan and/or Ty4191,
As we near the 150th post in this informative/entertaining thread, I have a request...

Can you confirm that I have the (a) implicit argument of this project straight (Steps 1-4), as well as it's (b) likely narrative implications (Step 5)?

Step 1. By statistically analyzing historic playoff performances, for legendary players across a wide range of eras, we can learn something important.
Step 2. We can derive valid/helpful/insightful/meaningful statistics about Team Defense, and thus Team Defense Quality.
Step 3. This is the method to do so.
Step 4. This method has been accurately and successfully applied.

(seems the last couple steps have been challenged at least a bit thus far in the thread; and eventually when I get my sea legs here I will be in a better position to challenge the more fundamental ones myself)

Step 5. Therefore, we have (preliminary? suggestive?) evidence to further support the following narrative conclusions:
5a. Wilt is the GOAT.
5b. Kareem is over-rated.
5c. MJ gets another gold star ahead of LBJ.

Can either of the leaders of this thread (or anybody else who is fair-minded, friendly, and constructive) tell me which Step or Steps I have wrong? Please and thank you.

5a. Wilt is the GOAT.
5b. Kareem is over-rated.
5c. MJ gets another gold star ahead of LBJ.


I don’t understand these conclusions based on the first post

Kareem looks about as impressive as wilt here

Lebron looks better than Jordan here, and both their samples against all time D weren’t in their primes for the most part I think

[ty 4191]

Kareem looks about as impressive as wilt here.

Umm. No.

Wilt vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
45% of total playoff games played
47.2 MPG
25.0 PPG
26.6 RBG
3.5 AST/G
rTS%: +3.8%

Kareem vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
13.9% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
29.4 PPG
14.2 RBG
3.8 AST/G
rTS%: +4.8%

[AEnigma]

Do you think people were unaware that a massive chunk of Wilt’s playoff history is against all-time defences. The production there is pretty clearly in Kareem’s favour, even before correcting for pace. That does not mean Kareem absolutely must be better — Wilt had a better defensive peak after all — but the idea those numbers “prove” any advantage for Wilt is pretty misguided.

[70sFan]

Kareem looks about as impressive as wilt here.

Umm. No.

Wilt vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
45% of total playoff games played
47.2 MPG
25.0 PPG
26.6 RBG
3.5 AST/G
rTS%: +3.8%

Kareem vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
13.9% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
29.4 PPG
14.2 RBG
3.8 AST/G
rTS%: +4.8%

So Kareem does have a better offensive production than Wilt against the best defenses, but he played less games against them. Does it make Wilt better?How?

[ty 4191]

So Kareem does have a better offensive production than Wilt against the best defenses, but he played less games against them. Does it make Wilt better?How?

Of course he had better production. Wilt faced HOF Centers in 135 of 160 playoff games (84.4%). Kareem, 125 of 237 (52.7%).

Who do you expect is going to have better quality numbers? It's night and day in terms of quality of opposition.

Wilt also played the most games of any player in the 1960's against (by FAR) the greatest defensive team in history (Celtics), and 143 games head to head against Russell, who is quite clearly the greatest defensive big man in NBA history.

Listen, man....I know you're totally biased towards Kareem. And it's clouding your objectivity here.

And, I know, nothing anyone posts/presents is going to change your mind on Wilt vs. Kareem, or, even, Kareem as GOAT. Your mind has always (seemed) totally closed on the matter.

Prove me wrong on that last point.

[AEnigma]

So Kareem does have a better offensive production than Wilt against the best defenses, but he played less games against them. Does it make Wilt better?How?

Of course he had better production. Wilt faced HOF Centers in 135 of 160 playoff games (84.4%). Kareem, 125 of 237 (52.7%).

Who do you expect is going to have better quality numbers? It's night and day in terms of quality of opposition.

…
We are literally just looking at there averages against top defences. All the other games are irrelevant.

Wilt also played the most games of any player in the 1960's against (by FAR) the greatest defensive team in history (Celtics), and 143 games head to head against Russell, who is quite clearly the greatest defensive big man in NBA history.

Yep, which is why it is a bit unfair to compare his averages outright against Kareem’s outright. But that is not what we are doing.

Listen, man....I know you're totally biased towards Kareem. And it's clouding your objectivity here.

And, I know, nothing anyone posts/presents is going to change your mind on Wilt vs. Kareem, or, even, Kareem as GOAT. Your mind has always (seemed) totally closed on the matter.

Prove me wrong on that last point.

As someone with no real stake in the Kareem versus Wilt debate, you look pretty blatantly like the more biased person here.

[MyUniBroDavis]

So Kareem does have a better offensive production than Wilt against the best defenses, but he played less games against them. Does it make Wilt better?How?

Of course he had better production. Wilt faced HOF Centers in 135 of 160 playoff games (84.4%). Kareem, 125 of 237 (52.7%).

Who do you expect is going to have better quality numbers? It's night and day in terms of quality of opposition.

Wilt also played the most games of any player in the 1960's against (by FAR) the greatest defensive team in history (Celtics), and 143 games head to head against Russell, who is quite clearly the greatest defensive big man in NBA history.

Listen, man....I know you're totally biased towards Kareem. And it's clouding your objectivity here.

And, I know, nothing anyone posts/presents is going to change your mind on Wilt vs. Kareem, or, even, Kareem as GOAT. Your mind has always (seemed) totally closed on the matter.

Prove me wrong on that last point.

I disagree with 70sfan in stuff sometimes but he’s not close minded or super biased to Kareem or anything lol, Kareem has a goat argument because he’s pretty damn good

It’s more likely that you are since your posting data that literally goes against what you’re saying

You can’t be like “uhhh no” and post Kareem scoring more points more efficiently like it’s a nail in the coffin lol

[ty 4191]

You can’t be like “uhhh no” and post Kareem scoring more points more efficiently like it’s a nail in the coffin lol

If can't tell the difference (in orders of magnitude) between the average defense Wilt faced (45% of games vs Elite + ATG defenses faced) vs. Kareem (14%)...you're hopeless.

Here's 70's Fan's OP Data:

Bill Russell (11.0% of playoffs games): 42.8 mpg, 26.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 16.4 ppg on 42.7% FG, 60.9% FT, 45.4% TS (-1.90 rTS%)

Wilt Chamberlain (52.50% of playoffs games): 47.5 mpg, 28.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 28.1 ppg on 50.8% FG, 50.6% FT, 52.2% TS (+3.84 rTS%)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (26.60% of playoffs games): 44.1 mpg, 15.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 33.3 ppg on 54.5% FG, 72.2% FT, 56.9% TS (+5.28 rTS%)

Moses Malone (14.29% of playoffs games): 40.5 mpg, 13.7 rpg,2.1 apg, 1.9 tov, 27.0 ppg on 48.7% FG, 81.9% FT and 55.5% TS (+1.79% rTS)

Shaquille O'Neal (30.38% of playoffs games): 41.1 mpg, 13.3 rpg, 2.9 apg, 3.3 tov, 26.9 ppg on 55.8% FG, 53.5% FT and 56.9% TS (+4.59% rTS)

Hakeem Olajuwon (15.45% of playoffs games): 42.0 mpg, 10.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 3.4 tov, 24.1 ppg on 48.9% FG, 75.2% FT and 53.9% TS (+0.30% rTS)

David Robinson (0.00% of playoffs games):--

Artis Gilmore (5.13% of playoffs games): 45.3 mpg, 18.8 rpg, 3.5 apg, 3.5 tov, 15.3 ppg on 44.3% FG, 36.8% FT and 44.0% TS (-6.93% rTS)

Patrick Ewing (21.70% of playoffs games): 40.7 mpg, 11.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 3.0 tov, 22.9 ppg on 43.7% FG, 80.0% FT and 49.0% TS (-4.48% rTS)

Go back and read the OP and look at the percentages for all the players. You'll see that nobody faced defenses like Wilt did. Not even close.

[70sFan]

Of course he had better production. Wilt faced HOF Centers in 135 of 160 playoff games (84.4%). Kareem, 125 of 237 (52.7%).

Who do you expect is going to have better quality numbers? It's night and day in terms of quality of opposition.

Wilt also played the most games of any player in the 1960's against (by FAR) the greatest defensive team in history (Celtics), and 143 games head to head against Russell, who is quite clearly the greatest defensive big man in NBA history.

That's why we don't compare raw numbers, but numbers against top competition. Do you understand that? Wilt didn't produce better offense than Kareem against top defenses. He faced them more often, which could reduce his overall numbers, but we don't compare overall numbers here.

Listen, man....I know you're totally biased towards Kareem. And it's clouding your objectivity here.

And, I know, nothing anyone posts/presents is going to change your mind on Wilt vs. Kareem, or, even, Kareem as GOAT. Your mind has always (seemed) totally closed on the matter.

Prove me wrong on that last point.

If you think that way about me, then we have no point to discuss any further. I thought I did enough to prove that I'm all for comparing and analyzing all-time greats and I'm one of the biggest critics of the whole "one GOAT" narrative. I spent years analyzing strengths/weaknesses of of the greatest centers ever and all of that because I'm biased and closed minded.

Sorry ty, I always respected you but it seems that we don't have anything else to discuss about.

[ty 4191]

Sorry ty, I always respected you but it seems that we don't have anything else to discuss about.

What would convince you regarding Wilt vs. Kareem and Kareem as GOAT?

[capfan33]

One thing that's worth noting here is that raw numbers don't take into account the intricacies of matchups. What I mean by that certain guys just match up better with some players/teams compared to others regardless of how good that player/team generally is.

And with that in mind, I think Kareem has an advantage because he played against almost everyone lol, the vast majority of Wilt's games came against Russell, even though Russell is the GOAT defender. While I think Wilt would more than hold his own against the vast majority of players, it is more theoretical, we have a much bigger sample size for Kareem doing well against a variety of players.

[70sFan]

Sorry ty, I always respected you but it seems that we don't have anything else to discuss about.

What would convince you regarding Wilt vs. Kareem and Kareem as GOAT?

I'd need to see some evidence that Kareem's overall impact wasn't higher than Wilt's. It could be helpful if someone would provide some RAPM data for both, but they don't exist unfortunately. More footage of prime Wilt would also help, it's possible that I underestimate his off-ball game or that his defense was even more absurd than I evaluate it.

Even now, I see a case for Wilt over Kareem. I have their peaks very close and primes are also quite comparable. To pick Wilt clearly ahead him though, I'd need more evidences of his superiority, because he doesn't have Jabbar longevity.

What about you? What would you change your mind?