Packers News, Trade Ideas, Transactions - 2023 Off Season

[Ron Swanson]

I could at least accept the argument that he hasn't "invested" as much financially (at the expense of the defense) in the offensive skill positions in the wake of Rodgers' physical decline (or you know, he should have traded Rodgers before he regressed so bad), but it was the most predictable thing in the world that the "all-in" mob would immediately put the lion's share of blame on the front office the second things start to go sour after three straight 13-win seasons of going, well....."all in". Upset that we didn't draft a rookie WR high, and now upset that the rookie WR's "aren't developing fast enough". Upset that we didn't go out and immediately replace a Top-3 WR in football by shopping in the free agent bargain bin, while also making Rodgers the highest paid player in football. Go ahead and list the 4-year draft records of any GM you want and see how much "better" if at all, they've been.

We had our window and it was a hell of a run (at least in the regular season), but now it's time to pay the piper. Sorry that the reality of a hard-cap sport so often conflicts with this pie-in-the-sky belief that you can keep sinking payroll into aging guys/free agents and expect to have a 5-6 year contending window.

[Matches Malone]

Go ahead and list the 4-year draft records of any GM you want and see how much "better" if at all, they've been.

You're taking this far more seriously than I anticipated. Didn't think a post poking fun at our 3rd round would get people so worked up. Every GM has a hit-or-miss record in the draft. News flash, our 3rd round has been a failure organizationally under other GMs too.

[Ron Swanson]

Go ahead and list the 4-year draft records of any GM you want and see how much "better" if at all, they've been.

You're taking this far more seriously than I anticipated. Didn't think a post poking fun at our 3rd round would get people so worked up. Every GM has a hit-or-miss record in the draft. News flash, our 3rd round has been a failure organizationally under other GMs too.

To be fair, I should have probably put it in the postgame thread instead.

[Matches Malone]

Read on Twitter

[PintSizedBox10]

I didn't expect instant replacement of Adams. But there was no contingency plan in place. Ted kept a steady stream of pass catchers coming in, while Gute pissed around.

And no, I'm not saying can Gute. I'd actually be extremely interested to see him and MLF work a little rebuild with a new QB - which we could be doing this season. Obviously trading away the guy that just won MVP could be career suicide though so I get it

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[ReasonablySober]

I can see the argument that Gute should have been more aggressive in replacing Adams. It would at least taken the Oakland picks to beat Philly's package for A.J. Brown. They could have moved #22 for Hollywood Brown. Tyreek Hill for first, second, and fourth-round selections as well as 2023 fourth and sixth-round selections.

That said, two things: I don't know what kind of cap situation they were in where they could afford any of those guys AND new deals, and second, this team doesn't look to be a #1 WR away from being a contender. The offensive line is a disaster, Rodgers has fallen off a cliff, and Joe Barry is an unbelievably awful fit at DC.

[DrWood]

I didn't expect instant replacement of Adams. But there was no contingency plan in place. Ted kept a steady stream of pass catchers coming in, while Gute pissed around.

And no, I'm not saying can Gute. I'd actually be extremely interested to see him and MLF work a little rebuild with a new QB - which we could be doing this season. Obviously trading away the guy that just won MVP could be career suicide though so I get it

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How can they do a rebuild with a new QB? Rodgers isn't going anywhere and the cap hit would be devastating if they traded or waived him. Barring injury or complete collapse, he'll be the starting QB in 2023, and most likely 2024.

[RRyder823]

I didn't expect instant replacement of Adams. But there was no contingency plan in place. Ted kept a steady stream of pass catchers coming in, while Gute pissed around.

And no, I'm not saying can Gute. I'd actually be extremely interested to see him and MLF work a little rebuild with a new QB - which we could be doing this season. Obviously trading away the guy that just won MVP could be career suicide though so I get it

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How can they do a rebuild with a new QB? Rodgers isn't going anywhere and the cap hit would be devastating if they traded or waived him. Barring injury or complete collapse, he'll be the starting QB in 2023, and most likely 2024.

Traded after June 1st his cap hit is 15 million I believe

Released or retired and it becomes an astronomical number

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[ReasonablySober]

I didn't expect instant replacement of Adams. But there was no contingency plan in place. Ted kept a steady stream of pass catchers coming in, while Gute pissed around.

And no, I'm not saying can Gute. I'd actually be extremely interested to see him and MLF work a little rebuild with a new QB - which we could be doing this season. Obviously trading away the guy that just won MVP could be career suicide though so I get it

Sent from my SM-G981U using RealGM mobile app

How can they do a rebuild with a new QB? Rodgers isn't going anywhere and the cap hit would be devastating if they traded or waived him. Barring injury or complete collapse, he'll be the starting QB in 2023, and most likely 2024.

Traded after June 1st his cap hit is 15 million I believe

Released or retired and it becomes an astronomical number

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app

Yea, the cap charges make it very unlikely he's here long term. Odds are most likely this is his last season.

[stillgotgame]

I didn't expect instant replacement of Adams. But there was no contingency plan in place. Ted kept a steady stream of pass catchers coming in, while Gute pissed around.

And no, I'm not saying can Gute. I'd actually be extremely interested to see him and MLF work a little rebuild with a new QB - which we could be doing this season. Obviously trading away the guy that just won MVP could be career suicide though so I get it

Sent from my SM-G981U using RealGM mobile app

How can they do a rebuild with a new QB? Rodgers isn't going anywhere and the cap hit would be devastating if they traded or waived him. Barring injury or complete collapse, he'll be the starting QB in 2023, and most likely 2024.

Traded after June 1st his cap hit is 15 million I believe

Released or retired and it becomes an astronomical number

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Not sure where you got that number from but it's not close to that. Various sites have his cap number mysteriously dropping a huge number when going past June 1 each year. This isn't true. I suspect the problem with their calculations is Rodgers' "option bonus" and how they treat it cap wise. It's huge numbers and it's guaranteed so they are way off.
Bottom line is I don't think we can trade him until 2024. He wanted a contract where he didn't have to worry about us having leverage and he bent Gute over good.
I think he plays 2 more years after this year. Sit him a while for his sore thumb, that's the only influence over him we have.

[DrWood]

How can they do a rebuild with a new QB? Rodgers isn't going anywhere and the cap hit would be devastating if they traded or waived him. Barring injury or complete collapse, he'll be the starting QB in 2023, and most likely 2024.

Traded after June 1st his cap hit is 15 million I believe

Released or retired and it becomes an astronomical number

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app

Yea, the cap charges make it very unlikely he's here long term. Odds are most likely this is his last season.

what? the cap hits mean it's near impossible to move him.

[ReasonablySober]

Traded after June 1st his cap hit is 15 million I believe

Released or retired and it becomes an astronomical number

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app

Yea, the cap charges make it very unlikely he's here long term. Odds are most likely this is his last season.

what? the cap hits mean it's near impossible to move him.

He's MUCH cheaper to move than he is to have on the roster.

[DrWood]

Yea, the cap charges make it very unlikely he's here long term. Odds are most likely this is his last season.

what? the cap hits mean it's near impossible to move him.

He's MUCH cheaper to move than he is to have on the roster.

I guess some sources of this data are not reliable. iirc, the one I saw had a minimum cap hit of ~$40M and a maximum over $90M

edit: https://overthecap.com/player/aaron-rodgers/1085

[ReasonablySober]

what? the cap hits mean it's near impossible to move him.

He's MUCH cheaper to move than he is to have on the roster.

I guess some sources of this data are not reliable. iirc, the one I saw had a minimum cap hit of ~$40M and a maximum over $90M

edit: https://overthecap.com/player/aaron-rodgers/1085

The 40M is if they trade him or he retires prior to June 1st. If they wait it's a $15 million hit in 23 and a $24m hit in 24.

[humanrefutation]

I refuse to believe this defense is that bad. It has too much talent all across the board. If Berry can't get the most out of these guys, you've got to find someone who can.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

I know we have other issues but there is way more than just a non-zero chance we are 5-2 right now and only a half game back if we had a competent punt returner. How is he still on the team.

[MoreTrife]

I refuse to believe this defense is that bad. It has too much talent all across the board. If Berry can't get the most out of these guys, you've got to find someone who can.

That's where I am. It's much likely that Barry is god awful than Gute vastly miscalculated seven first round draft picks, none of which were complete shocks over where they were drafted. Barry is a disaster.

Also, garbage decision to hire him by MLF after Barry's track record.

[DrWood]

He's MUCH cheaper to move than he is to have on the roster.

I guess some sources of this data are not reliable. iirc, the one I saw had a minimum cap hit of ~$40M and a maximum over $90M

edit: https://overthecap.com/player/aaron-rodgers/1085

The 40M is if they trade him or he retires prior to June 1st. If they wait it's a $15 million hit in 23 and a $24m hit in 24.

I'm not saying I'm right, but that's not how I interpret those numbers.

[ReasonablySober]

I guess some sources of this data are not reliable. iirc, the one I saw had a minimum cap hit of ~$40M and a maximum over $90M

edit: https://overthecap.com/player/aaron-rodgers/1085

The 40M is if they trade him or he retires prior to June 1st. If they wait it's a $15 million hit in 23 and a $24m hit in 24.

I'm not saying I'm right, but that's not how I interpret those numbers.

Here's an explainer.

What Happens in Aaron Rodgers Retires?

If Rodgers were to walk away he would forfeit all his rights to the $59.465 million in guaranteed salary for next year. In order to best accommodate the hit on the salary cap my assumption would be that the Packers and Rodgers would sign a new contract where the option bonus was eliminated and just a $1.165 salary remained. That would reduce Rodgers salary cap charge to $16,998,750 and they would carry him on the roster as a procedural move until June 2nd. At that point they would put him on the retired list. The salary cap charge in that case would be $15,833,570 in 2023 and $24,480,000 in 2024.

If they did not do that and processed the retirement right away they would take a salary cap hit of $40,313,570 in 2023 but none in 2024. The Packers have no cap space next year so it would seem more likely that they take the first approach.

What Happens if the Packers Trade Aaron Rodgers?

Rodgers does not have a no trade clause in his contract so he could be traded to a team as well. The timing of the option should give the Packers all the way until the end of training camp to move him. The cap charge here would depend on when he was traded. If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. This assumes that the Packers did not exercise the option before the trade. If the option is exercised then the trade number spikes to nearly $100 million. There should be no need to exercise the option until the last possible day.

For the team acquiring Rodgers they would be on the hook for the salary for the year. The cap charge would be $59,515,000 if they do not exercise his option and $15.79 million if they were to exercise the option. Rodgers has an injury guarantee of $49.25 million for 2024 but that does not become fully guaranteed until 5 days after the 2023 Super Bowl. If Rodgers was cut after 2023 it would cost the team $43.725 million on the 2024 cap. If he retired they could split that as $14.575 million in 2024 and $29.15 million in 2025 using a similar June 2nd date as mentioned above in the retirement option.

Can Aaron Rodgers be Cut?

No that is not a feasible option. Because his salary next year is fully guaranteed the Packers would take on over $99 million in dead money. While they could officially pick up the option and split that across 2023 and 2024 it would be about $31 million in dead money in 2023 and then $68.2 million coming in 2024.

[Kerb Hohl]

I think the majority of Rodgers' motivations are about money so I have a hard time seeing him retire next year with that much cash at stake, which I know we are just talking about hypothetically here.