GT #3: Bullets @ Cavaliers 7 PM (NBA TV/NBCSW/980 AM) [10/23/22]

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To me, characterizations like "winning player" & "clutch" are meaningless. I remember Kobe in an interview talking about how many "clutch" shots he'd missed....

Whenever you make a FT, it's worth 1 point. If we'd made 1 more in, say, the 2d quarter vs. the Cavs we'd have won the game in regulation. Or, very likely, if we'd grabbed 1 or 2 more offensive boards (instead of getting 4), or if we'd grabbed one more defensive rebound that, instead, they collected as an offensive board. Or, if we'd made 1 more FT in quarter 1, 2 or 3.

If any of those things had happened, nobody'd be talking about "clutch," or about "stepping up," or whether a guy is a "winning player." All that kind of stuff is just telling yourself a heroic story of success or a tragic tale of failure. Entertaining but unrelated to winning basketball games.

Ditto for expressions like Donovan Mitchell can "strap the team to his back & take them to victory" (or whatever the exact words were).

Basketball players are as good as they are over the whole time they're in the game. Period. Some are good, some are really good, some are great, & so forth.

[AFM]

TALK TO THESE FELLAS PIF!!!!

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Small sample size bias. Over the course of the game Mitchell provided more of what his team needed than Beal did.

No way. In fact, over the course of that game Mitchell provided *less* of what his team needed than Beal did.

What would you be saying if Gafford had gone 2 for 2 instead of 1 for 2 -- in which case we'd have won the game, & all of a sudden it'd look like Mitchell requiring 29 FGA to get to 12 makes was one of the things that cost them the game.

Mitchell made up for some of his mediocre, high-volume shooting by getting 1 more offensive board than Beal (since an offensive rebound specifically erases a missed FGA).

We lost the game for obvious, specific, traceable reasons: Brad & Mitchell both turned the ball over 6 times. But the rest of the Wizards turned the ball over 12 times while the rest of the Cavs turned it over only 7 times.

As a result of that difference -- & of their getting 12 more offensive boards than we did -- Cleveland got to take 96 shots to our 87 shots. You rarely win a game when you do that.

Along the same lines, they also got to take 10 more FTAs than we did.

Two things win basketball games -- two things and nothing else. One of them is scoring efficiency as measured by TS%. The other is the comparative number of offensive opportunities (FGAs &, essentially, 1/2 FTAs) each team has.

If you have a higher TS% than your opponent & a larger number of offensive opportunities (or the same number for that matter), you cannot lose. It is mathematically impossible.

Conversely, if you have the opposite, a lower TS% & a smaller number of offensive opportunities (or the same number for that matter), you cannot win. It is mathematically impossible.

If you have the advantage in either of those matters, you have a chance to win. Vs the Cavs, we had a higher TS% -- significantly higher. But they got to take 9 more shots & 10 more FTAs. On average in the NBA, that's about 17 points. You can't spot your opponent 17 points & hope to win.

I don't think you can find even a single game where a team was able to overcome that big an opportunity difference & record a win. Not even one. If you want to argue against any of the above, feel free to find a counter-instance.

Now, had there been even a small difference in favor of Mitchell over Beal in respect of their impact on either TS% &/or ball control, that would provide some basis to argue that he had a better night than Brad. But, the opposite is the case. As the numbers convey with crystal clarity. He was, overall, significantly worse than Brad. QED.

[FAH1223]

Someone start the Pistons thread!

[Zonkerbl]

well, I actually watched the game with my eyes. There's no doubt that Mitchell crushed the Wizards soul in that game. They couldn't stop him and they knew it.

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well, I actually watched the game with my eyes. There's no doubt that Mitchell crushed the Wizards soul in that game. They couldn't stop him and they knew it.

Hard to watch a game without one's eyes, I'll give you that.

But, It's the stuff way behind the eyes that matters, Zonk, of which we all know you have plenty! We could start with basic arithmetic. If you shoot 12 for 29 with 6 turnovers, you aren't crushing anyone's soul. Your opponent would love you to keep shooting that way

Moreover, for a team to dominate the 4th quarter, as the Wizards did, coming back from a 7 point deficit to tie the game in regulation against a team that (no disagreement here!) is much better than we are... that doesn't speak of a "crushed soul."

Mitchell didn't have a terrible game. He just didn't have a particularly good game. He didn't help his team win in regulation, did he? I mean... given that they didn't. Period.

In fact, if we'd managed 1 fewer turnover in regulation, or made 1 more FT, there probably would have been no OT. We'd have won in regulation.

OTOH, in OT, Mitchell did play extremely well.

& we played like sh*t. With @ 3.3 minutes left, KP hit a 3 to put us up by a point. In the following about 3 minutes, we managed to take only 2 more shots! Missed them both. We took 5 FTs. Made only 1 of them. Then, w/ the game out of hand & about to end, we took one more shot & missed it

Overall, as I think I have demonstrated & as is obvious to any rational process, we lost this game, because we let the Cavs have 9 more shot attempts & 10 more FTAs than we had. Period. & we did that by turning the ball over more than they did & being ridiculously inept on the offensive glass.

Bring that only a little closer to even in regulation, & we win.
Of course, b/c one's head can swivel up, down or sideways independent of any real-world circumstance, you are certainly free to deny that obvious fact -- go right ahead. Doesn't make it any the less true!

Fortunately, we do pretty much always agree about the more important subject of politics: "go commies!"

[Zonkerbl]

I'm still really bitter about Beal whining about his contract instead of holding a team meeting encouraging everyone to commit to playing team defense after the d started to collapse after the 10-3 start. And then they gave this weak mind the max. I don't care what his numbers are... which are mediocre... he's not a leader.

When the wizards win 50 with Beal earning the max I'll eat my words. But they won't.

This team needs players who want to win so bad they'll play defense, who'll call a team meeting to speak passionately about the need to play good defense. Not lead a team wide pity party about money.