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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#961 » by doclinkin » Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:52 pm

nate33 wrote:
tleikheen wrote:Really stupid statement saying Rui isnt helping the team while he plays good BB,not turning the ball over and able to bounce defenders off his body when he's attacking the basket.

Rui's on/off differential is -39.0. Let that sink in for a minute. While Rui is on the floor the team is outscored by 39 POINTS per 100 possessions. And this is from a guy who has split time pretty equally between starters and the 2nd string so the numbers are more accurate. It's not solely due to him being part of a generally bad second unit. The team is even worse when he is alongside starters.

Look at his player pairs numbers. The team plays bad no matter who he is paired with:

Image

Caveat: the sample sizes are too small to put much stock in. But with Rui, the significantly negative on/off numbers have been true for his entire career.


That said, this is a reason why Rui is an ideal trade candidate as far as I am concerned. The gap between his in-game effect and the public perception of his game is vast. I often watch the opposing team's broadcast and their announcers generally praise Rui for his talent and the things he does well. You assume front offices have the scouting report etc, but some part of what they seem to take into account is the public perception of whether or not it's a good trade. Offense sells tickets. Offense is what gets players paid. Offense is what Joe in the stands sees and cheers for. Rui looks like a great prospect when you isolate his offensive highlights.

Add in the additional marketing opportunities he opens for the right team, and it seems to me trading Rui could net you a decent return, while improving your numbers in the win column. That said I would prefer to play him significant minutes leading up to the trade deadline, both to pad his numbers and to allow a stealth tank. I want picks more than players. Though Tommy seems to do better the other way 'round.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#962 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Thu Oct 27, 2022 1:08 am

The problem with picks is that Tommy makes them. If we could have the Wiz Real GM consensus picks then yes, let’s stock up.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#963 » by Dat2U » Thu Oct 27, 2022 1:32 am

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:
tleikheen wrote:Really stupid statement saying Rui isnt helping the team while he plays good BB,not turning the ball over and able to bounce defenders off his body when he's attacking the basket.

Rui's on/off differential is -39.0. Let that sink in for a minute. While Rui is on the floor the team is outscored by 39 POINTS per 100 possessions. And this is from a guy who has split time pretty equally between starters and the 2nd string so the numbers are more accurate. It's not solely due to him being part of a generally bad second unit. The team is even worse when he is alongside starters.

Look at his player pairs numbers. The team plays bad no matter who he is paired with:

Image

Caveat: the sample sizes are too small to put much stock in. But with Rui, the significantly negative on/off numbers have been true for his entire career.


That said, this is a reason why Rui is an ideal trade candidate as far as I am concerned. The gap between his in-game effect and the public perception of his game is vast. I often watch the opposing team's broadcast and their announcers generally praise Rui for his talent and the things he does well. You assume front offices have the scouting report etc, but some part of what they seem to take into account is the public perception of whether or not it's a good trade. Offense sells tickets. Offense is what gets players paid. Offense is what Joe in the stands sees and cheers for. Rui looks like a great prospect when you isolate his offensive highlights.

Add in the additional marketing opportunities he opens for the right team, and it seems to me trading Rui could net you a decent return, while improving your numbers in the win column. That said I would prefer to play him significant minutes leading up to the trade deadline, both to pad his numbers and to allow a stealth tank. I want picks more than players. Though Tommy seems to do better the other way 'round.


The time the deal Rui was probably this offseason or the previous one. Being the clear backup to Kuz and a 20 minute player on the Wiz doesn't help his value and neither does his impending free agency. I think Kuz carries more value at this stage due his status as the clear 3rd option and decent raw numbers. I could see getting a late 1st for Kuz. Feels like we might be lucky to get (2) 2nds in a deal for Rui.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#964 » by doclinkin » Thu Oct 27, 2022 4:23 am

Dat2U wrote:The time the deal Rui was probably this offseason or the previous one. Being the clear backup to Kuz and a 20 minute player on the Wiz doesn't help his value and neither does his impending free agency. I think Kuz carries more value at this stage due his status as the clear 3rd option and decent raw numbers. I could see getting a late 1st for Kuz. Feels like we might be lucky to get (2) 2nds in a deal for Rui.


I doubt we would have gotten a high pick for Rui if we tried to ditch him early. Teams would wonder what was wrong with a player for us to give up on him so quick. Yeah no doubt we'd get more for Kuz, a 6 year vet who played a key role on a Championship team, who rebounds well, has triple doubles in his resume. -vs- Rui who took an emotional rest for half a year, and who has anemic rebounding numbers, is still raw.

The attraction with Rui is still his mystery potential though. His relative lack of NBA minutes due to injury and mental exhaustion mean he is still something of an unknown. He looks good. Our team does not have a league-wide rep for player development and a winning culture. Teams like Miami, San Antonio, GSW, Celtics -- they might think they'd do a better job of shaping him. Hell it might be true. I don't think teams would fault the Wizards for starting Kuz ahead of him. Every team in the league would be more likely to start Kuz over Rui. In fact I think it may give Rui more value in some team's minds as a potential diamond in the rough. If he isn't starting then that knocks some digits off of the negotiating price to re-sign him. Bargain value.

We were never going to get a lottery pick from trading Rui though. Not unless Tommy hypnotized the opposing GM with fast patter and happytalk.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#965 » by tontoz » Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:39 am

If Rui keeps shooting 40% from 3 there will be teams interested in him. There is always a market for bigs that can make 3s.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#966 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Thu Oct 27, 2022 2:34 pm

With this reunion of the Big 3 Gil, Caron, Antawn coming , it made me think about some of the other players from that era, and I just realized that Deni = Jared Jeffries.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#967 » by mhd » Thu Oct 27, 2022 2:55 pm

SUPERBALLMAN wrote:With this reunion of the Big 3 Gil, Caron, Antawn coming , it made me think about some of the other players from that era, and I just realized that Deni = Jared Jeffries.

Deni is a better shoot and defender than o-face was
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#968 » by doclinkin » Thu Oct 27, 2022 3:32 pm

SUPERBALLMAN wrote:With this reunion of the Big 3 Gil, Caron, Antawn coming , it made me think about some of the other players from that era, and I just realized that Deni = Jared Jeffries.



Ha! Except Ared Jeffries was actually *bad* at defense. He just had a reputation of being a defender on the team since he had no other role.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#969 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Oct 27, 2022 4:11 pm

Hey! Ared Effries was a Hoosier and therefore can Do No Wrong tm
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#970 » by Eli Babak » Thu Oct 27, 2022 5:24 pm

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Damn.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#971 » by Frichuela » Thu Oct 27, 2022 5:27 pm

Eli Babak wrote:
Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Damn.


So Wizards :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

There goes our best defender by a mile...Jordan Goodwin here is your chance...
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#972 » by 80sballboy » Thu Oct 27, 2022 5:30 pm

Yeah, I think it's Jordan Goodwin over Johnny Davis at the moment. With Will Barton playing strictly the 2 behind Beal.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#973 » by gambitx777 » Thu Oct 27, 2022 5:56 pm

Goodwin or Davis who do we give the chance too?

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#974 » by tontoz » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:04 pm

Sucks about Wright. Hopefully Kispert will be back soon.

25 minutes agoWizards coach Wes Unseld Jr. said Kispert (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday's practice and is "really close" to returning despite being out for Friday's game versus the Pacers, Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washingtonreports.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#975 » by bsilver » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:09 pm

Corey Kispert is coming back soon. He'll be the best player available. He isn't a PG, but Delon Wright isn't much of a PG either. His value is in other areas. Ball handling responsibilities will be spread out among Beal and others.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#976 » by bsilver » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:18 pm

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:
tleikheen wrote:Really stupid statement saying Rui isnt helping the team while he plays good BB,not turning the ball over and able to bounce defenders off his body when he's attacking the basket.

Rui's on/off differential is -39.0. Let that sink in for a minute. While Rui is on the floor the team is outscored by 39 POINTS per 100 possessions. And this is from a guy who has split time pretty equally between starters and the 2nd string so the numbers are more accurate. It's not solely due to him being part of a generally bad second unit. The team is even worse when he is alongside starters.

Look at his player pairs numbers. The team plays bad no matter who he is paired with:

Image

Caveat: the sample sizes are too small to put much stock in. But with Rui, the significantly negative on/off numbers have been true for his entire career.


That said, this is a reason why Rui is an ideal trade candidate as far as I am concerned. The gap between his in-game effect and the public perception of his game is vast. I often watch the opposing team's broadcast and their announcers generally praise Rui for his talent and the things he does well. You assume front offices have the scouting report etc, but some part of what they seem to take into account is the public perception of whether or not it's a good trade. Offense sells tickets. Offense is what gets players paid. Offense is what Joe in the stands sees and cheers for. Rui looks like a great prospect when you isolate his offensive highlights.

Add in the additional marketing opportunities he opens for the right team, and it seems to me trading Rui could net you a decent return, while improving your numbers in the win column. That said I would prefer to play him significant minutes leading up to the trade deadline, both to pad his numbers and to allow a stealth tank. I want picks more than players. Though Tommy seems to do better the other way 'round.

Opposing broadcasters generally try to say nice things about the other team. However, the Cleveland broadcasters, who think they're quite funny, were very amused by Rui. Pointing out several times, that if you pass Rui the ball, never expect to get it back.

Now's the time to trade Rui for some back court help. Gibson, Gill, Avdija, Gafford, and Carey can take over the backup PF role.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#977 » by tleikheen » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:25 pm

Deni time ........Deni and Barton can man the guard play in the 2nd unit . Rui just picks up more minutes at the 3. I see no reason Rui and Deni cant get near 30 mpg with DWright hurt and until Kispert is ready.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#978 » by tleikheen » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:29 pm

Pointing out several times, that if you pass Rui the ball, never expect to get it back.


Did you watch the game ....taking ONLY 8 shots in 27 minutes is not gunning shots up on any NBA team
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#979 » by Dark Faze » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:37 pm

Yikes. That's the Harden injury. From everything I've seen of Hamstring injuries in general, the standard timelines for recovery are way too optimistic.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#980 » by prime1time » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:37 pm

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:
tleikheen wrote:Really stupid statement saying Rui isnt helping the team while he plays good BB,not turning the ball over and able to bounce defenders off his body when he's attacking the basket.

Rui's on/off differential is -39.0. Let that sink in for a minute. While Rui is on the floor the team is outscored by 39 POINTS per 100 possessions. And this is from a guy who has split time pretty equally between starters and the 2nd string so the numbers are more accurate. It's not solely due to him being part of a generally bad second unit. The team is even worse when he is alongside starters.

Look at his player pairs numbers. The team plays bad no matter who he is paired with:

Image

Caveat: the sample sizes are too small to put much stock in. But with Rui, the significantly negative on/off numbers have been true for his entire career.


That said, this is a reason why Rui is an ideal trade candidate as far as I am concerned. The gap between his in-game effect and the public perception of his game is vast. I often watch the opposing team's broadcast and their announcers generally praise Rui for his talent and the things he does well. You assume front offices have the scouting report etc, but some part of what they seem to take into account is the public perception of whether or not it's a good trade. Offense sells tickets. Offense is what gets players paid. Offense is what Joe in the stands sees and cheers for. Rui looks like a great prospect when you isolate his offensive highlights.

Add in the additional marketing opportunities he opens for the right team, and it seems to me trading Rui could net you a decent return, while improving your numbers in the win column. That said I would prefer to play him significant minutes leading up to the trade deadline, both to pad his numbers and to allow a stealth tank. I want picks more than players. Though Tommy seems to do better the other way 'round.

This is good analysis on the surface, but there needs to be more questions. The conclusions by this dataset aren't self evident. Is the problem Rui or is the problem something else?
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Rui is a bench player and until last game Wes insisted on playing a full 5 man bench lineup. This lineup was drastically outscored as the previous post shows. Show my question is this. Why the superficial analysis instead of a comprehensive discussion on the fact that the the way Wes was utilizing the bench was bad? Given the minutes Rui plays and the fact that our starters are outscoring our opponents, what would be the implications of Hachimura having a positive plus/minus?

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