Gary Payton as a scorer

[durantbird]

Payton is known as an elite defensive guard, might be the best of all time. But how do you evaluate his offensive impact? Who is the closest player to him offensively all time / nowadays?

I'm interested in his general offensive value, and also in particular in his scoring ability.

[tsherkin]

Absolute peak as a +0.4 ScoreVal guy. 95-2003, 21.4 ppg in 39.6 mpg on 53.5% TS, averaging 101.5 TS+ with only 2 seasons above 102 and one at 97. Very little range. Two competent 3pt shooting seasons in the very early 2000s but very mediocre finishing ability from 3-23. League-average type draw rate. He ate up scoring possessions but wasn't a particularly good scorer relative to the upper echelon of the league. Pretty good offensive rebounder for a guard, especially over his first decade, and obviously a playmaker. Pretty good turnover control, as well, which contributes to his overall offensive efficiency and relative value as a scorer.

In-era, I guess we're talking about horrible grinder ball and some of the ugliest, most wretched basketball in league history towards the point where Payton started to score at his peak level. He was pretty good. Unremarkable still against the very best, but still solid. Probably overused, but given the dearth of talent and the nature of team construction in-era, one of the better available options.

[AEnigma]

Gary Payton, Postseason 1996-2000: 21 points per 75 possessions on 54.8% efficiency (~ +1.5 rTS, although would be better to show based on opponent)

Isiah Thomas, Postseason 1984-1990: 21.6 points per 75 possessions on 52.6% efficiency (~ -1.3 rTS, not adjusting for opponent)

Baron Davis, Postseason 2001-2007: 20.9 points per 75 possessions on 54.8% efficiency (~ +2.5 rTS, again no opponent adjustment)

Those would be my two off-the-top comparisons for scoring, although stylistically Payton has more in common with Baron than he does with Isiah.

EDIT — Another fun contrast…

Gus Williams, Postseason 1978-84: 23.7 points per 75 possessions on 52.8% efficiency (~ -0.3 rTS, still no opponent adjustment)

[tsherkin]

Gary Payton, Postseason 1996-2000: 21 points per 75 possessions on 54.8% efficiency (~ +1.5 rTS, although would be better to show based on opponent)

Isiah Thomas, Postseason 1984-1990: 21.6 points per 75 possessions on 52.6% efficiency (~ -1.3 rTS, not adjusting for opponent)

Baron Davis, Postseason 2001-2007: 20.9 points per 75 possessions on 54.8% efficiency (~ +2.5 rTS, again no opponent adjustment)

Those would be my two off-the-top comparisons for scoring, although stylistically Payton has more in common with Baron than he does with Isiah.

Yes, that's a good point. Payton's postseason scoring does make him look a little better, though as you say, per-opponent examination is probably a good idea. Even still, doesn't end up looking particularly amazing, but perhaps impressive given his lack of range and attacking from the point, especially in some very slow, grind-y seasons.

[kcktiny]

Payton is known as an elite defensive guard, might be the best of all time.

Correct.

And like Walt Frazier has a case for best all-around PG of all-time, when you combine offense and defense.

But how do you evaluate his offensive impact?

From 1993-94 to 2002-03, a full decade, Gary Payton scored 16295 points in the regular season. That was 4000+ points more than any other PG, and twice as many points as all but 11 other PGs.

He was not the best of shooters for a PG, but he was excellent at limiting turnovers (just 2.7 TO/40min), unlike PGs like Kidd, Stockton, Marbury, Mark Jackson, Tim Hardaway, and others, so his offensive efficiency was much better than you would think from just his shooting stats.

That decade he also grabbed the most steals (1658), blocked the 2nd most shots (184), grabbed the 2nd most rebounds (3507), and threw for the 3rd most assists (6157) among all PGs.

That decade he was all-defensive 1st team 9 times, all-NBA 1st team 2 times, all-NBA 2nd team 5 times, all-NBA 3rd team 2 times - he was all-NBA 9 straight seasons.

He was as dominant as a PG could be over a full decade, sans winning a title.

[picc]

Watched a lot of the mid 90s Sonics a couple years ago and these were the major things I came away with

- Good catch and shoot three-point shooter, but a weak off the dribble one. The high off the dribble attempts crushed his regular season %
- Improved three-point shooting in the playoffs (38% on high volume from 96-99)
- Back to the basket game created countless mismatch and shot opportunities due to teams having to put bigger guards and forwards on him, leaving their weaker defenders on the Sonics other scorers

The Sonics were consistently at the top of the league in offensive rating during his prime, and the chaos he created from the post was part of that. He could score on anyone regardless of size, which caused a lot of double teams and subsequent hockey assists.

He wasn't an upper echelon scorer at all. But you could definitely build a great offense with him as a primary player. And more importantly, you could have a great defense at the same time, which is something you can't say for many smaller offensive maestros

[picc]

And since it was brought up, his defense was very good, but not even close to best of all time even from a point guard IMO. I did a deep dive on GP and Kidd at the same time and Kidd looked clearly more impressive on a possession to possession basis. GP wasn't even the best defender on his team when he won DPOY (Shawn Kemp).

Personally feel GP is underrated on offense and overrated on defense. But maybe that's for another topic.

[70sFan]

And since it was brought up, his defense was very good, but not even close to best of all time even from a point guard IMO. I did a deep dive on GP and Kidd at the same time and Kidd looked clearly more impressive on a possession to possession basis. GP wasn't even the best defender on his team when he won DPOY (Shawn Kemp).

Personally feel GP is underrated on offense and overrated on defense. But maybe that's for another topic.

I always felt his teammate Nate was a better defender at guard spot.

[Djoker]

^^

I'd argue the opposite. From the film I've watched, Payton's defense impressed me more then Kidd's. And yes Nate McMillan was a fantastic defender as well but he only played limited minutes.

And yes to respond to the OP, I find Payton's offensive game underrated. He could lead a very good offense and had some terrific team results on the Sonics as well. It's hard to pinpoint but he's definitely an All-NBA level player at his peak, just short of MVP level IMO. So probably borderline top 10 guy.

[Colbinii]

And since it was brought up, his defense was very good, but not even close to best of all time even from a point guard IMO. I did a deep dive on GP and Kidd at the same time and Kidd looked clearly more impressive on a possession to possession basis. GP wasn't even the best defender on his team when he won DPOY (Shawn Kemp).

Personally feel GP is underrated on offense and overrated on defense. But maybe that's for another topic.

I always felt his teammate Nate was a better defender at guard spot.

Same--gambled less/more fundamental, much better defensive rebounder, and wasn't busy wasting his energy offensively like Payton was required to do.

Payton was the better POA defender but, as I have said in the past, I slightly prefer his son to himself as a defender overall.

[migya]

^^

I'd argue the opposite. From the film I've watched, Payton's defense impressed me more then Kidd's. And yes Nate McMillan was a fantastic defender as well but he only played limited minutes.

And yes to respond to the OP, I find Payton's offensive game underrated. He could lead a very good offense and had some terrific team results on the Sonics as well. It's hard to pinpoint but he's definitely an All-NBA level player at his peak, just short of MVP level IMO. So probably borderline top 10 guy.

Agreed, Payton is underrated mostly due to the infactuation of the three point shot. He was havoc with his post game and was dynamic. His defense is elite alltime and created so much pressure on the opposing guards.

[HeartBreakKid]

^^

I'd argue the opposite. From the film I've watched, Payton's defense impressed me more then Kidd's. And yes Nate McMillan was a fantastic defender as well but he only played limited minutes.

And yes to respond to the OP, I find Payton's offensive game underrated. He could lead a very good offense and had some terrific team results on the Sonics as well. It's hard to pinpoint but he's definitely an All-NBA level player at his peak, just short of MVP level IMO. So probably borderline top 10 guy.

Agreed, Payton is underrated mostly due to the infactuation of the three point shot. He was havoc with his post game and was dynamic. His defense is elite alltime and created so much pressure on the opposing guards.

There was no infatuation with the 3 point shot during Payton's era. If you're trying to argue that now in 2022 people think he's not good because he doesn't shoot 3s then....what about everyone else who played before the modern era?

I don't get how he is underrated yet you said he is just short of an MVP and borderline top ten guy - isn't that what most people think?

[migya]

^^

I'd argue the opposite. From the film I've watched, Payton's defense impressed me more then Kidd's. And yes Nate McMillan was a fantastic defender as well but he only played limited minutes.

And yes to respond to the OP, I find Payton's offensive game underrated. He could lead a very good offense and had some terrific team results on the Sonics as well. It's hard to pinpoint but he's definitely an All-NBA level player at his peak, just short of MVP level IMO. So probably borderline top 10 guy.

Agreed, Payton is underrated mostly due to the infactuation of the three point shot. He was havoc with his post game and was dynamic. His defense is elite alltime and created so much pressure on the opposing guards.

There was no infatuation with the 3 point shot during Payton's era. If you're trying to argue that now in 2022 people think he's not good because he doesn't shoot 3s then....what about everyone else who played before the modern era?

I don't get how he is underrated yet you said he is just short of an MVP and borderline top ten guy - isn't that what most people think?

You're referring to the poster I quoted. What about everyone else before the modern era? Do you mean do I think if other players of those eras were good too? Very much, better than the ones nowadays. Put them in a more physical era, no travelling and carrying the ball and they need two years minimum to adjust and they probably still wilter.

[cupcakesnake]

- Back to the basket game created countless mismatch and shot opportunities due to teams having to put bigger guards and forwards on him, leaving their weaker defenders on the Sonics other scorers

The Sonics were consistently at the top of the league in offensive rating during his prime, and the chaos he created from the post was part of that. He could score on anyone regardless of size, which caused a lot of double teams and subsequent hockey assists.

I kind of forgot about this and feel I haven't thought about point guard post-ups in a while. In the late 90s and early/mid 2000s, a lot of point guards were posting up a lot. Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Gary Payton all come to mind, and also a little bit of Stephon Marbury and Jason Kidd. I've never seen numbers on how effective this strategy was, but it was definitely pervasive. There were a lot of tinier point guards still in the NBA back then, so it might have been simple mismatch exploitation. Nowadays, most of the remaining tiny point guards are stocky little beasts that you can't exploit (CP3, Lowry, FVV). It did feel like a momentary loophole that the NBA closed by phasing out tiny guards.

[tsherkin]

I kind of forgot about this and feel I haven't thought about point guard post-ups in a while. In the late 90s and early/mid 2000s, a lot of point guards were posting up a lot. Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Gary Payton all come to mind, and also a little bit of Stephon Marbury and Jason Kidd. I've never seen numbers on how effective this strategy was, but it was definitely pervasive. There were a lot of tinier point guards still in the NBA back then, so it might have been simple mismatch exploitation. Nowadays, most of the remaining tiny point guards are stocky little beasts that you can't exploit (CP3, Lowry, FVV). It did feel like a momentary loophole that the NBA closed by phasing out tiny guards.

I have never considered Chris Paul "stocky" and I have watched him get posted rather regularly. Even Lowry and FVV get posted. Sometimes, it's not necessarily about bullying them with power, but exploiting a height mismatch. Lowry certainly has a strong base, but he's also about 6'0 tall, so a couple inches of height and a decent mid-post game can definitely work against him with the right amount of space, to say nothing of what happens when you see a mismatch like Luka putting himself on a small guard.

[cupcakesnake]

I kind of forgot about this and feel I haven't thought about point guard post-ups in a while. In the late 90s and early/mid 2000s, a lot of point guards were posting up a lot. Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Gary Payton all come to mind, and also a little bit of Stephon Marbury and Jason Kidd. I've never seen numbers on how effective this strategy was, but it was definitely pervasive. There were a lot of tinier point guards still in the NBA back then, so it might have been simple mismatch exploitation. Nowadays, most of the remaining tiny point guards are stocky little beasts that you can't exploit (CP3, Lowry, FVV). It did feel like a momentary loophole that the NBA closed by phasing out tiny guards.

I have never considered Chris Paul "stocky" and I have watched him get posted rather regularly. Even Lowry and FVV get posted. Sometimes, it's not necessarily about bullying them with power, but exploiting a height mismatch. Lowry certainly has a strong base, but he's also about 6'0 tall, so a couple inches of height and a decent mid-post game can definitely work against him with the right amount of space, to say nothing of what happens when you see a mismatch like Luka putting himself on a small guard.

Huge difference between being vulnerable to a Luka post-up (heck, Paul George and Marcus Morris were "vulnerable" to Luka post ups), and being vulnerable to post-ups by someone like Gary Payton (or the other guards I mentioned). Obviously, 6'0" dudes are going to get posted up but we can assess them with a little more nuance than perfect or zeros, and I never called any of them perfect. I'm comparing the smallest PGs of today to the smallest point guards of that era (Boykins, Terrell Brandon, Brevin Knight, Damon Stoudemire). Point guards defending the post looks different today than it did then.

I do understand the premise of shooting over a smaller defender. This response feels a bit condescending.

[tsherkin]

Huge difference between being vulnerable to a Luka post-up (heck, Paul George and Marcus Morris were "vulnerable" to Luka post ups), and being vulnerable to post-ups by someone like Gary Payton (or the other guards I mentioned).

Agreed, but that's why I started by talking about someone who was more like Payton's size, in that 6'3, 6'4ish range. Luka is an outlier more related to the present era, but guard post still happens on the regular. You see it from Spencer Dinwiddie, for example, on Dallas. You see it a lot. There has been MORE post isolation from various positions in the last few seasons that we have seen SINCE Payton's era.

Obviously, 6'0" dudes are going to get posted up but we can assess them with a little more nuance than perfect or zeros,

That is certainly fair, yes.

and I never called any of them perfect. I'm comparing the smallest PGs of today to the smallest point guards of that era (Boykins, Terrell Brandon, Brevin Knight, Damon Stoudemire).

Sub-6' dudes will always be hellaciously vulnerable, yes, but those aren't the only guys someone like Payton or Mark Jackson or whomever were posting. I don't know if that's what you're saying, but that notion is the same as saying Jordan only exploited dudes who were 3+ inches shorter than him, which is also false.

Point guards defending the post looks different today than it did then.

Yeah, but that's more because we see fewer clear-out sets at the point. The wing post defense looks basically the same, except that the defense is more free to rotate with the removal of the illegal defense rules.

I do understand the premise of shooting over a smaller defender. This response feels a bit condescending.

It wasn't meant to be, I was highlighting the mechanics of the situation for broader discussion. We see the sets on the regular, and you were discussing Lowry as if he wasn't vulnerable to being posting, so I was discussing the idea that sometimes height vs power is more important in such sets.

[picc]

- Back to the basket game created countless mismatch and shot opportunities due to teams having to put bigger guards and forwards on him, leaving their weaker defenders on the Sonics other scorers

The Sonics were consistently at the top of the league in offensive rating during his prime, and the chaos he created from the post was part of that. He could score on anyone regardless of size, which caused a lot of double teams and subsequent hockey assists.

I kind of forgot about this and feel I haven't thought about point guard post-ups in a while. In the late 90s and early/mid 2000s, a lot of point guards were posting up a lot. Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Gary Payton all come to mind, and also a little bit of Stephon Marbury and Jason Kidd. I've never seen numbers on how effective this strategy was, but it was definitely pervasive. There were a lot of tinier point guards still in the NBA back then, so it might have been simple mismatch exploitation. Nowadays, most of the remaining tiny point guards are stocky little beasts that you can't exploit (CP3, Lowry, FVV). It did feel like a momentary loophole that the NBA closed by phasing out tiny guards.

I mean, if you're under the impression Payton was only posting small point guards, thats not true at all. He was guarded by a lot of 2's back then. He was out there putting Grant Hill in the torture chamber one game.

Hasn't totally been phased out of todays game either. Most points just dont develop that part of their game. There are certain ones who try, like Marcus Smart for instance. Most of his offensive success in the finals this year was posting up Warriors guards. And his proficiency at it isn't in the same hemisphere as Payton's was. Kyrie goes to the post sometimes. Jrue Holiday as well.

[mysticOscar]

Payton was an underrated scorer. His offensive skillet is more suited now with open lanes. He would have to trade some of his post skills with 3ball, but his slashing and transition ability today compared to 90s early 2000s would just translate a lot better today.

[kcktiny]

Huge difference between being vulnerable to a Luka post-up (heck, Paul George and Marcus Morris were "vulnerable" to Luka post ups), and being vulnerable to post-ups by someone like Gary Payton (or the other guards I mentioned). Obviously, 6'0" dudes are going to get posted up

Gary Payton was posting up a lot of players bigger than 6-0 PGs, alot of SGs and SFs. He would post up just about anyone, just to show he could do it. And he was damn good at it.

Where this idea that he was posting up just smaller players came from is clearly not from someone who saw him play in the 90s. Not so much in his earliest seasons - when 6-5 Ricky Pierce was their SG - but when 6-3 Hersey Hawkins became their starting SG Payton was often guarded by opposing SGs because he was a much better scorer than Hawkins.

I mean, if you're under the impression Payton was only posting small point guards, thats not true at all. He was guarded by a lot of 2's back then. He was out there putting Grant Hill in the torture chamber one game.

Back to the basket game created countless mismatch and shot opportunities due to teams having to put bigger guards and forwards on him, leaving their weaker defenders on the Sonics other scorers

Perfect descriptions of Payton's down low game.

And since it was brought up, his defense was very good, but not even close to best of all time even from a point guard IMO. I did a deep dive on GP and Kidd at the same time and Kidd looked clearly more impressive on a possession to possession basis. GP wasn't even the best defender on his team when he won DPOY

The two best defensive PGs I ever saw were Walt Frazier and Gary Payton.

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