GT #5: Pacers @ Bullets 7:30 PM (NBCSW/ESPN/980 AM) [10/28/22]

[doclinkin]

I understand how anyone who is all in for tanking feels.
(But) Given how the NBA has diminished the favorability of tanking makes
it a worse proposition that it had historically been. I'll just say I'm
a bit ambivalent on the prospects.

The real answer is to do a better job across the organization in
drafting and player development. Of course that is maddeningly
difficult, slow and like pushing the proverbial rock uphill when the most
immediate method is to be lucky rather than good. But as every casino
knows, you can't control luck.

Yes. You can. By intelligently losing games. By resting your best players against your competition in the tankstakes. By massaging your line-ups to ensure you lose. You can stack every % in your favor. That is simply playing the cards you have. The ping pong balls will bounce where they will, but until then the casino game you are playing is poker. You can influence your own destiny here.

Currently we have a zero percent chance of drafting a game changing franchise player this year. If we had the 8th worst team we would have a 6% chance at the top spot, if we were the 4th worst team that chance doubles, with about a 50% chance of a top 4 pick. But we are at #15 right now. The worst team not in the lottery. Feel free to be all the ambivalent you want. If we are not in the lottery this year we have no pick. It goes to New York. So you'd be banking solely on 'player development', and whatever deck chairs you want to rearrange around Beal's Titanic contract. Tommy has truly been a sorcerer in dealing Wall and Westbrook. Beal is not subject to that magic. We've got what we got.

Look at the teams that are losing right now. Yeah the usual bottom feeders. But consider an organization like Miami that normally does well in player development and drafting. Likewise Golden State. Brooklyn has 2 HOFers and can't win. You are going to see some good teams somehow miraculously bottoming out this year. Wembanyama may not be LeBron, or Wilt, or Kareem or whomever. But as a team we don't have the luxury of giving away any chance to improve. Winning a handful more games this year will not ALLOW us to improve, much less help us.

[daSwami]

didn't read the whole thread but it's clear to me at least how
important Wright is to us and how important Turner is to them.
Take Wright away from us and add Turner to them (comparing the
season opener and this game) and it's not shocking at all we got the loss
this time and won the first time.

If this is the case the Wenbanyama thread should be gaining steam by the all star break.

Really the only issue I have with "the process" is the uncertainty of getting
in this case, that all important #1. Losing helps your odds but guarantees nothing.

In this case, winning a play-off spot (read: not losing enough) guarantees that we lose our draft pick to the Knicks.

[mhd]

If this is the case the Wenbanyama thread should be gaining steam by the all star break.

Really the only issue I have with "the process" is the uncertainty of getting
in this case, that all important #1. Losing helps your odds but guarantees nothing.

In this case, winning a play-off spot (read: not losing enough) guarantees that we lose our draft pick to the Knicks.

Which made the decision not to take OKC's trade offer (which the Knicks accepted) of the three future 1sts (including our own back) for #10 even more idiotic in hindsight. Johnny Davis was NEVER going to play one meaningful minute this year when the goal was to make the playoffs. Now, it looks like we took an epic bust who is scared every time he goes out on the court.

[montestewart]

Really the only issue I have with "the process" is the uncertainty of getting
in this case, that all important #1. Losing helps your odds but guarantees nothing.

In this case, winning a play-off spot (read: not losing enough) guarantees that we lose our draft pick to the Knicks.

Which made the decision not to take OKC's trade offer (which the Knicks accepted) of the three future 1sts (including our own back) for #10 even more idiotic in hindsight. Johnny Davis was NEVER going to play one meaningful minute this year when the goal was to make the playoffs. Now, it looks like we took an epic bust who is scared every time he goes out on the court.

As I somehow always do, I will remain optimistic that a draft pick, even a really bad draft pick, will somehow turn into something useful. Nonetheless, when I see Davis on the court it sometimes feels like I’m looking at some lucky fan who through an improbable series of events Is asked to suit up.