(LOCK THREAD) The LeBron James - 22-23 NBA Season Thread -NBA's All-Time Scoring Leader!

[Djoker]

If Kareem comes out 4 years earlier, there’s a big chance he doesn’t get to play the second half of his career with the best point guard of all time, which would have a fairly big impact on his point total. Pretending that you can just keep everything else the way that it is but tack on 4 extra seasons’ worth of points is just silly. It doesn’t work like that.

What does Kareem playing with Magic have to do with whether he enters the NBA at 18? Unless this is one of those "butterfly effect" phenomena ... if Kareem gets drafted earlier everything changes including which way trees grow in China then I agree.

On a serious note, what-ifs are pointless but when people say Lebron passes Kareem in overall points, there is a caveat that Lebron entered the league at 18 and Kareem at 22. To act like that isn't a massive advantage for Lebron is just strange. And predicting 44k points for Kareem in the NBA had he entered straight out of high school is a perfectly reasonable prediction.

[Kingdibs19]

What’s strange is people trying to add caveats. Lebron is going to break Kareem’s record in less games. Period. Cope.

[HeartBreakKid]

If Kareem comes out 4 years earlier, there’s a big chance he doesn’t get to play the second half of his career with the best point guard of all time, which would have a fairly big impact on his point total. Pretending that you can just keep everything else the way that it is but tack on 4 extra seasons’ worth of points is just silly. It doesn’t work like that.

What does Kareem playing with Magic have to do with whether he enters the NBA at 18? Unless this is one of those "butterfly effect" phenomena ... if Kareem gets drafted earlier everything changes including which way trees grow in China then I agree.

On a serious note, what-ifs are pointless but when people say Lebron passes Kareem in overall points, there is a caveat that Lebron entered the league at 18 and Kareem at 22. To act like that isn't a massive advantage for Lebron is just strange. And predicting 44k points for Kareem in the NBA had he entered straight out of high school is a perfectly reasonable prediction.

Advantage for what...? It's just a record. Neither guy is competing against each other for it.

Should we count up how many points they scored in HS and MS as well? Maybe add in AAU and Olympic points too.

Lebron will have scored the most points in nba history. Saying something like, well Kareem joined the NBA later is rather irrelevant. We might as well say Karl Malone would have passed Kareem too if he gave enough of a **** to go to work after 2004, he wasn't exactly washed up in his last season.

Not to mention 4 seasons of NBA player means more games and more chances to get injured. That could have easily changed Kareem's career.

[zimpy27]

Yeah don't understand what people are missing here.

Kareem currently holds record for most NBA regular season points. LeBron is likely to take that record later this season.

[coastalmarker99]

I find it interesting that ty 4191 does not bring up the amount of expansion teams Kareem got to feast against in his prime.


You can use the high school argument for Kareem.

But I am damn sure that Lebron would have loved to have spent most of his prime with Durant and Curry in another league.


As Kareem had the luxury of doing with Doctor J.


Can you imagine how differently we would look at other Goat players if they were that lucky.

Wilt without Russell for the first seven years of his career would have added a extra 4 to 5 titles to go along with two extra mvps.

[Stalwart]

I don't think Erving was that much of a game changer. Kareem had to go up against the Wilt/West Lakers, the Reed/Frazier Knicks, Havlicek/Cowens Celtics, the and the Hayes/Unseld Bullets.

Dr. J didn't even start his career until after Kareem won his first title. And he didn't win his fist NBA title until 1983 after Kareem had 3 titles. I don't see how Erving coming into the league in 72 instead of 76 costs him any titles or makes much of a difference for Kareems career at all.

[thebigbird]

If Kareem comes out 4 years earlier, there’s a big chance he doesn’t get to play the second half of his career with the best point guard of all time, which would have a fairly big impact on his point total. Pretending that you can just keep everything else the way that it is but tack on 4 extra seasons’ worth of points is just silly. It doesn’t work like that.

What does Kareem playing with Magic have to do with whether he enters the NBA at 18? Unless this is one of those "butterfly effect" phenomena ... if Kareem gets drafted earlier everything changes including which way trees grow in China then I agree.

On a serious note, what-ifs are pointless but when people say Lebron passes Kareem in overall points, there is a caveat that Lebron entered the league at 18 and Kareem at 22. To act like that isn't a massive advantage for Lebron is just strange. And predicting 44k points for Kareem in the NBA had he entered straight out of high school is a perfectly reasonable prediction.

It has everything to do with it. This idea that you get to keep everything about Kareem’s career the same with the exception of adding on 4 seasons’ worth of points is silly as hell. LeBron’s going to break the record in fewer games than it took Kareem. There are no caveats. Deal with it.

[Mazter]

On a serious note, what-ifs are pointless but when people say Lebron passes Kareem in overall points, there is a caveat that Lebron entered the league at 18 and Kareem at 22. To act like that isn't a massive advantage for Lebron is just strange. And predicting 44k points for Kareem in the NBA had he entered straight out of high school is a perfectly reasonable prediction.

Uhmmm, LeBron will probably do it in 20 seasons...Kareem played 20 seasons. 20 = 20, really no advantage there.

[Djoker]

What’s strange is people trying to add caveats. Lebron is going to break Kareem’s record in less games. Period. Cope.

I'm coping fine. Lebron 100% deserves to break the record. However I just won't deny that entering the NBA out of high school helped him break this record in a major way.

On a serious note, what-ifs are pointless but when people say Lebron passes Kareem in overall points, there is a caveat that Lebron entered the league at 18 and Kareem at 22. To act like that isn't a massive advantage for Lebron is just strange. And predicting 44k points for Kareem in the NBA had he entered straight out of high school is a perfectly reasonable prediction.

Uhmmm, LeBron will probably do it in 20 seasons...Kareem played 20 seasons. 20 = 20, really no advantage there.

Lebron is playing from age 18-38 while Kareem was playing from age 22-42. Ages 18-21 are generally much more statistically productive than ages 39-42.

A few posts above, a user toodles23 made a long post about how Kareem playing in a fast paced era gave him an advantage. Not really... #1 Kareem was primarily a half-court scorer hardly benefitting from transition opportunities and #2 Kareem did have more possessions to work with which in theory leads to more scoring opportunities overall but Kareem took noticeably fewer shots per 75 possessions than Lebron does. He didn't have the entire offense run through him. And that's largely era-related. Players back then didn't monopolize possessions and play a heliocentric role the way modern superstars do.

But anyways there are factors that helped Kareem like playing in a weaker league (only true from 73-76 IMO), playing with great PG's who were feeding him the ball (although his PPG always increased when Oscar/Magic sat) and the higher pace which I'm not entirely sure helped him. But then there are many factors that helped Lebron like coming into the league at age 18, playing in a less physical era, playing in the modern era with all the modern advantages in medicine, nutrition and training -- athletes in all sports today have impressive longevity, for example Messi, Ronaldo, Brady, Ovechkin, Nadal, Djokovic... all playing like superstars in the their mid to late 30's! Even a lot of NBA guys like Chris Paul, KD, Curry etc. are playing insanely well for their age relative to their historical counterparts even if overshadowed by Lebron.

But again I'm not discounting Lebron's accomplishment. He deserves it 100% but just pointing out the differences. To be quite frank I don't think we can actually compare Kareem and Lebron. The eras are just too different IMO. It's comparing apples and oranges at the end of the day.

[Mazter]

Lebron is playing from age 18-38 while Kareem was playing from age 22-42. Ages 18-21 are generally much more statistically productive than ages 39-42.

But then there are many factors that helped Lebron like coming into the league at age 18

There are factors, this not being one of them. A list of players with total points in their first 4 seasons and in year 16 to 19. There is no advantage, there is just Kareem, LeBron and Karl...and then the rest.

Code: Select all

Name   Debut  1-4    16-19  Total
Kareem   22   10071  6112   16183
Lebron   18   8439   6024   14463
Karl     22   7576   5887   13463
Shaq     20   8019   3142   11161
Dirk     20   5383   5209   10592
Tim      21   6351   3938   10289
Melo     19   7286   2872   10158
Vince    22   6574   2332   8906
Kobe     18   4240   4614   8854
Pierce   21   6433   2376   8809
Moses    19   4398   3726   8124
KG       19   4639   3359   7998


[Colbinii]

What’s strange is people trying to add caveats. Lebron is going to break Kareem’s record in less games. Period. Cope.

I'm coping fine. Lebron 100% deserves to break the record. However I just won't deny that entering the NBA out of high school helped him break this record in a major way.

Oh yeah, it definitely helped, just as playing in the 1970s and in a fast paced environment helped Kareem.

Scoring Per 100 Kareem: 29.9 Points/100
Scoring Per 100 LeBron: 36.7 Points/100

LeBron scorer so many more points per 100 that this is actually a larger difference maker than the extra years. LeBron scores 23% more points per 100 possessions compared to Kareem.

If we look at Pace, Kareems average Pace season (looking at NBA average, not his teams where the Lakers were routinely 2-3 possessions faster than the league average) is 105.4 possessions/game. LeBron is at 94.5. This difference results in Kareem's seasons being 11.5% more possessions than LeBron. Now, this difference becomes even more drastic when LeBron's seasons where he was young and averaging the most points per possessions were the slowest paces of his career. For Example, LeBron's first 10 seasons in the NBA had an average pace of 91.6 Possessions per game while Kareem's first 10 seasons resulted in an average Pace of 109.2. This difference is a whopping 19% more for Kareem--meaning he was playing at a 19% faster pace than LeBron during their 1st 10 years (This coincides with Kareem's highest scoring seasons as well as higher usage seasons).

If we scaled back Kareem's scoring to LeBron's pace over the first 10 seasons, which is 22,141 points on 109.2 pace down to a 91.6 pace, Kareem's scoring total goes down to 18,576 Points.

Or, if we scaled up LeBron's points, he would go from scoring 21,081 to 25,011 points.

Food for thought and food for objectivity--even for LeBron's Anti-Stans.

[Ian Scuffling]

Only perused this latest debate regarding Lebron and Kareem (except Toodles excellent comment), but has anyone really brought up the difference in that Lebron has to create most of his shot attempts for himself rather than get assisted as Kareem mostly did? How does that enter into the calculus of who had it easier? On the surface, it seems that it makes it harder for James to score than for Kareem. But, as others have said, it is what it is. Kareem holds the mark for now and James will pass it and most likely obliterate it once he hangs it up for good. Both on the Mount Rushmore of greats, IMO.

[falcolombardi]

Man seems like people care more about lebron breaking kareem record than i thought when they are trying to asterisk preemptively lol

[tsherkin]

Man seems like people care more about lebron breaking kareem record than i thought when they are trying to asterisk preemptively lol

Lots of people try to asterisk everything he does, essentially. It's quite frustrating.

[PistolPeteJR]

If Kareem comes out 4 years earlier, there’s a big chance he doesn’t get to play the second half of his career with the best point guard of all time, which would have a fairly big impact on his point total. Pretending that you can just keep everything else the way that it is but tack on 4 extra seasons’ worth of points is just silly. It doesn’t work like that.

What does Kareem playing with Magic have to do with whether he enters the NBA at 18? Unless this is one of those "butterfly effect" phenomena ... if Kareem gets drafted earlier everything changes including which way trees grow in China then I agree.

On a serious note, what-ifs are pointless but when people say Lebron passes Kareem in overall points, there is a caveat that Lebron entered the league at 18 and Kareem at 22. To act like that isn't a massive advantage for Lebron is just strange. And predicting 44k points for Kareem in the NBA had he entered straight out of high school is a perfectly reasonable prediction.

I cannot understand how it's reasonable to say that LeBron has a massive advantage for coming in at 18, but not reasonable to say that Kareem has had massive advantages when you factor in things like pace. So yeah, Kareem might (depending on health, how long his body holds up, etc.) hit 44K if he comes in at 18, but give LeBron the pace that Kareem had for most of his career. What's LeBron at then?

[PistolPeteJR]

Man seems like people care more about lebron breaking kareem record than i thought when they are trying to asterisk preemptively lol

Where you been the last 20 years LOL?

[Djoker]

What’s strange is people trying to add caveats. Lebron is going to break Kareem’s record in less games. Period. Cope.

I'm coping fine. Lebron 100% deserves to break the record. However I just won't deny that entering the NBA out of high school helped him break this record in a major way.

Oh yeah, it definitely helped, just as playing in the 1970s and in a fast paced environment helped Kareem.

Scoring Per 100 Kareem: 29.9 Points/100
Scoring Per 100 LeBron: 36.7 Points/100

LeBron scorer so many more points per 100 that this is actually a larger difference maker than the extra years. LeBron scores 23% more points per 100 possessions compared to Kareem.

If we look at Pace, Kareems average Pace season (looking at NBA average, not his teams where the Lakers were routinely 2-3 possessions faster than the league average) is 105.4 possessions/game. LeBron is at 94.5. This difference results in Kareem's seasons being 11.5% more possessions than LeBron. Now, this difference becomes even more drastic when LeBron's seasons where he was young and averaging the most points per possessions were the slowest paces of his career. For Example, LeBron's first 10 seasons in the NBA had an average pace of 91.6 Possessions per game while Kareem's first 10 seasons resulted in an average Pace of 109.2. This difference is a whopping 19% more for Kareem--meaning he was playing at a 19% faster pace than LeBron during their 1st 10 years (This coincides with Kareem's highest scoring seasons as well as higher usage seasons).

If we scaled back Kareem's scoring to LeBron's pace over the first 10 seasons, which is 22,141 points on 109.2 pace down to a 91.6 pace, Kareem's scoring total goes down to 18,576 Points.

Or, if we scaled up LeBron's points, he would go from scoring 21,081 to 25,011 points.

Food for thought and food for objectivity--even for LeBron's Anti-Stans.

The pace discrepancy is a fact but like I said myself in an earlier post I'm not sure that Kareem who was almost exclusively a half-court scorer benefits dramatically from pace. Perhaps in terms of taking more shots due to more possessions...? However if we look at shots per game, Kareem was shooting the ball less than Lebron. 18.1 FGA and 6.0 FTA per game for Kareem vs. 19.6 FGA and 7.8 FTA for Lebron. He wasn't exactly a gunslinger. Per 100 possessions Lebron scored many more points but also took many more shots and free throws. Kareem for his career actually has slightly higher TS% (0.592 vs. 0.588) in leagues where averages were far lower. When Lebron surpasses Kareem he will have taken about 500 field goals less but about 1500 free throws more. In other words I see no rationale for adjusting Kareem's scoring down. He could easily shoot at those rates at modern pace.

Now can we say that if Lebron played in that era his points would be much higher? As in we should adjust Lebron's point up if he played back then. I can see that. But would his points be higher enough to offset four more statistical prime years of Kareem who enters the NBA at 18? I'm leaning towards no. And that's without considering the increased physicality, lack of modern benefits etc. that Lebron would experience in the 70's and 80's. Kareem's longevity was a bigger outlier in his era than Lebron's longevity is in this era.

At the end we'll never know though!

[tsherkin]

The pace discrepancy is a fact but like I said myself in an earlier post I'm not sure that Kareem who was almost exclusively a half-court scorer benefits dramatically from pace. Perhaps in terms of taking more shots due to more possessions...?

Kareem ran pretty well in transition. Even as an old man. He was very good at finding the easy buckets. That's actually one of the ways he maintained both volume AND efficiency later on in his career alongside Magic. Even stuff like action in the secondary break around an offensive rebound, or slicing a lane near the penetrator to get a shuffle pass as the D focused on the initial attack. He wasn't exclusively anything. There's an impression of him as a back-down iso scorer who went to the skyhook, but he had a J, he had a face-up game, he ran well on the break, he hit the O boards, he did a little of everything. He was a complete scorer.

I see what you mean about shooting rate, of course. There's something there. But if you start scaling down transition possessions (which have a non-trivial proportionate representation in what shooting volume he did have), then you start scaling down his overall efficiency and point production per possession, which is perhaps what is being reached for in this discussion of pace. It's not just the idea of volume being affected, but also the quality and efficiency of scoring possessions, which will then affect rate.

[PistolPeteJR]

I'm coping fine. Lebron 100% deserves to break the record. However I just won't deny that entering the NBA out of high school helped him break this record in a major way.

Oh yeah, it definitely helped, just as playing in the 1970s and in a fast paced environment helped Kareem.

Scoring Per 100 Kareem: 29.9 Points/100
Scoring Per 100 LeBron: 36.7 Points/100

LeBron scorer so many more points per 100 that this is actually a larger difference maker than the extra years. LeBron scores 23% more points per 100 possessions compared to Kareem.

If we look at Pace, Kareems average Pace season (looking at NBA average, not his teams where the Lakers were routinely 2-3 possessions faster than the league average) is 105.4 possessions/game. LeBron is at 94.5. This difference results in Kareem's seasons being 11.5% more possessions than LeBron. Now, this difference becomes even more drastic when LeBron's seasons where he was young and averaging the most points per possessions were the slowest paces of his career. For Example, LeBron's first 10 seasons in the NBA had an average pace of 91.6 Possessions per game while Kareem's first 10 seasons resulted in an average Pace of 109.2. This difference is a whopping 19% more for Kareem--meaning he was playing at a 19% faster pace than LeBron during their 1st 10 years (This coincides with Kareem's highest scoring seasons as well as higher usage seasons).

If we scaled back Kareem's scoring to LeBron's pace over the first 10 seasons, which is 22,141 points on 109.2 pace down to a 91.6 pace, Kareem's scoring total goes down to 18,576 Points.

Or, if we scaled up LeBron's points, he would go from scoring 21,081 to 25,011 points.

Food for thought and food for objectivity--even for LeBron's Anti-Stans.

The pace discrepancy is a fact but like I said myself in an earlier post I'm not sure that Kareem who was almost exclusively a half-court scorer benefits dramatically from pace. Perhaps in terms of taking more shots due to more possessions...? However if we look at shots per game, Kareem was shooting the ball less than Lebron. 18.1 FGA and 6.0 FTA per game for Kareem vs. 19.6 FGA and 7.8 FTA for Lebron. He wasn't exactly a gunslinger. Per 100 possessions Lebron scored many more points but also took many more shots and free throws. Kareem for his career actually has slightly higher TS% (0.592 vs. 0.588) in leagues where averages were far lower. When Lebron surpasses Kareem he will have taken about 500 field goals less but about 1500 free throws more. In other words I see no rationale for adjusting Kareem's scoring down. He could easily shoot at those rates at modern pace.

Now can we say that if Lebron played in that era his points would be much higher? As in we should adjust Lebron's point up if he played back then. I can see that. But would his points be higher enough to offset four more statistical prime years of Kareem who enters the NBA at 18? I'm leaning towards no. And that's without considering the increased physicality, lack of modern benefits etc. that Lebron would experience in the 70's and 80's. Kareem's longevity was a bigger outlier in his era than Lebron's longevity is in this era.

At the end we'll never know though!

So now you want to compare the kinds of players they were? Size, tendencies, strengths, etc.? It’s never ending.

[falcolombardi]

I'm coping fine. Lebron 100% deserves to break the record. However I just won't deny that entering the NBA out of high school helped him break this record in a major way.

Oh yeah, it definitely helped, just as playing in the 1970s and in a fast paced environment helped Kareem.

Scoring Per 100 Kareem: 29.9 Points/100
Scoring Per 100 LeBron: 36.7 Points/100

LeBron scorer so many more points per 100 that this is actually a larger difference maker than the extra years. LeBron scores 23% more points per 100 possessions compared to Kareem.

If we look at Pace, Kareems average Pace season (looking at NBA average, not his teams where the Lakers were routinely 2-3 possessions faster than the league average) is 105.4 possessions/game. LeBron is at 94.5. This difference results in Kareem's seasons being 11.5% more possessions than LeBron. Now, this difference becomes even more drastic when LeBron's seasons where he was young and averaging the most points per possessions were the slowest paces of his career. For Example, LeBron's first 10 seasons in the NBA had an average pace of 91.6 Possessions per game while Kareem's first 10 seasons resulted in an average Pace of 109.2. This difference is a whopping 19% more for Kareem--meaning he was playing at a 19% faster pace than LeBron during their 1st 10 years (This coincides with Kareem's highest scoring seasons as well as higher usage seasons).

If we scaled back Kareem's scoring to LeBron's pace over the first 10 seasons, which is 22,141 points on 109.2 pace down to a 91.6 pace, Kareem's scoring total goes down to 18,576 Points.

Or, if we scaled up LeBron's points, he would go from scoring 21,081 to 25,011 points.

Food for thought and food for objectivity--even for LeBron's Anti-Stans.

The pace discrepancy is a fact but like I said myself in an earlier post I'm not sure that Kareem who was almost exclusively a half-court scorer benefits dramatically from pace. Perhaps in terms of taking more shots due to more possessions...? However if we look at shots per game, Kareem was shooting the ball less than Lebron. 18.1 FGA and 6.0 FTA per game for Kareem vs. 19.6 FGA and 7.8 FTA for Lebron. He wasn't exactly a gunslinger. Per 100 possessions Lebron scored many more points but also took many more shots and free throws. Kareem for his career actually has slightly higher TS% (0.592 vs. 0.588) in leagues where averages were far lower. When Lebron surpasses Kareem he will have taken about 500 field goals less but about 1500 free throws more. In other words I see no rationale for adjusting Kareem's scoring down. He could easily shoot at those rates at modern pace.

Now can we say that if Lebron played in that era his points would be much higher? As in we should adjust Lebron's point up if he played back then. I can see that. But would his points be higher enough to offset four more statistical prime years of Kareem who enters the NBA at 18? I'm leaning towards no. And that's without considering the increased physicality, lack of modern benefits etc. that Lebron would experience in the 70's and 80's. Kareem's longevity was a bigger outlier in his era than Lebron's longevity is in this era.

At the end we'll never know though!

Lebron scored 20 points a game in year 1, how many more do you think out of high school kareem who still had not developed his skyhook and post game in ucla would have scored over that in the nba?

lebron scored 27 in year 2 and 30 in year 3, how many more than that do you have freshman and sophomore kareem putting? Consider Kareem first nba year with 4 years of ucla development he scored 28

Lebron averaged 27 points in his 34-37 years age seasons, kareem averaged 22 points in his 34-37 age seasons

Lebron averaged 30 at 37 years old, kareem averaged 22

Kareem averaged 17, 15 and 10 in his last 3 seasons,how much less do you expect lebron to score than that at the next 3 years after this?

Lebron is gonna break kareem record in less games, VERY probably score way better at 38-41 age than him too, and his scoring at 19-22 was so good it is unlikely kareem would have scored more than him at those ages, let alone much more