GT: Hornets vs Kings 7PM Halloween

[yosemiteben]

They're picking 13th in the draft one way or another.

Picking 13th without Melo, Terry, and Cody seems like a massive outperformance of expectations based on how down everyone was around here about both Cliff and our roster not that long ago.

And yet it's still almost a worst possible outcome for our long term.

I fundamentally disagree that having a borderline playoff team while missing three key rotation players, including our franchise PG, and owning almost all of our future picks is a worst possible outcome for this team. If we can be a borderline playoff team without those guys, then when they are healthy we'll be much better and still have picks we can use to improve if we want.

[Benjamin Linus]

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It's like he starts off good but then he slowly morphs into Ben Simmons as the game goes on

[fatlever]

Picking 13th without Melo, Terry, and Cody seems like a massive outperformance of expectations based on how down everyone was around here about both Cliff and our roster not that long ago.

And yet it's still almost a worst possible outcome for our long term.

I fundamentally disagree that having a borderline playoff team while missing three key rotation players, including our franchise PG, and owning almost all of our future picks is a worst possible outcome for this team. If we can be a borderline playoff team without those guys, then when they are healthy we'll be much better and still have picks we can use to improve if we want.

they arent out for the entire year. they will be back next week. my assumptions are based on us finishing 9th ot 10th with all of them playing.
if we are talking about our 3-4 start, then different discussion

[fatlever]

But for now, it's early. We haven't seen full team. Maybe cliff has pieces for a playoff team. Need til end of 2022 to really see where this is headed, but at some point this season, Mitch and mj need to decide on direction.

re: my thoughts on what to do in short-term... ie nothing but wait and see what happens next 2 months. i know i'm known as old man curmudgeon around here, but jeez. i'm not suggesting we do anything right now, just at some point.

if we are say 10-20 after 30 games, start looking to trade a vet. no need to keep plotting away with mason and kelly (at very least)
if we are 15-15, consider making a move for a win-now piece to get us over the 9-10 hump
if we are 20-10, rejoice and do nothing i guess

[Braggins]

I'll add to the discussion on making the playoffs by pointing out that the 10th seed in the East won 43 games last season and also that if they make the playoffs they are at risk of losing their 1st round pick. So, they'll likely need to go .500 or better just to have a chance at making the 9/10 seed, at which point they'll have to win two games to make the playoffs, and if they do they will have virtually 0% chance of winning the series and might lose their pick.

Also, this teams 2nd star is in his 30s and the 3rd best player on the team is in his late 20s, the core likely isn't good enough to win a playoff series, and there are no young players on the roster poised to eventually replace Gordon as another high impact star.

[Braggins]

The East is just so good this year too. Even with their solid play while shorthanded I have a hard time convincing myself that gunning for the playoffs isn't still the worst option, even if they somehow snuck in, which still feels like a long shot.

I'd be skeptical even if they started 20-10 with a healthy team, but I would agree that at that point you couldn't blow it up (they don't really have many assets to use for a win now trade either though) . I wish they would have been proactive with the tank and not put themselves in a position to potentially fool themselves. The Hayward window is just so small and the ceiling for it is still very limited imo. Even if I'm underestimating them, I just don't see this core ever making any kind of real run in the playoffs. The last place you want to be a few years from now when LaMelo resigns is having 0-1 playoff series wins and a team that still needs to completely rebuild around LaMelo (due to Hayward, and to a lesser exten Rozier, aging out).

This season feels very eerily similar to Cliffords last first year here for me.

[Hornet Mania]

I'll add to the discussion on making the playoffs by pointing out that the 10th seed in the East won 42 games last season and also that if they make the playoffs they are at risk of losing their 1st round pick. So, they'll likely need to go .500 or better just to have a chance at making the 9/10 seed, at which point they'll have to win two games to make the playoffs

I have to quibble with this slightly, because although it was true that 43-39 was only good for 10th last year that's an extremely unusual scenario. Most years 43+ is going to avoid the play-in entirely, or be 7th at worst. 43 wins would have been 6th or better in the eastern conference six of the last eight seasons (or five of eight if you don't want to include the bubble, where 41 wins was good enough for homecourt) We just got super unlucky, as is our wont, and were the lowest-seeded 43 win team in quite awhile.

It's a moot point though because 43 wins is probably beyond this group's ability, but theoretically if we could pull it off we're probably skating into the postseason. Especially if people start tanking for this exceptional draft.

[Braggins]

I'll add to the discussion on making the playoffs by pointing out that the 10th seed in the East won 42 games last season and also that if they make the playoffs they are at risk of losing their 1st round pick. So, they'll likely need to go .500 or better just to have a chance at making the 9/10 seed, at which point they'll have to win two games to make the playoffs

I have to quibble with this slightly, because although it was true that 43-39 was only good for 10th last year that's an extremely unusual scenario. Most years 43+ is going to avoid the play-in entirely, or be 7th at worst. 43 wins would have been 6th or better six of the last eight seasons (or five of eight if you don't want to include the bubble) We just got super unlucky, as is our wont, and were the lowest-seeded 43 win team in quite awhile.

It's a moot point though because 43 wins is probably beyond this group's ability, but theoretically if we could pull it off we're probably skating into the postseason. Especially if people start tanking for this exceptional draft.

The East seems to have gotten even better from a talent standpoint from last year to this one, so I feel like there is a good chance this will be the norm for now in the East barring injuries or unforeseen circumstances. It was unusual last season because previously the East has been relatively weak and you could have a chance of being the 8th seed pre play-in game without even being .500. The playoff race in the East looks like its going to brutal like the Western conference has traditionally been.

[HornetJail]

I'll add to the discussion on making the playoffs by pointing out that the 10th seed in the East won 42 games last season and also that if they make the playoffs they are at risk of losing their 1st round pick. So, they'll likely need to go .500 or better just to have a chance at making the 9/10 seed, at which point they'll have to win two games to make the playoffs

I have to quibble with this slightly, because although it was true that 43-39 was only good for 10th last year that's an extremely unusual scenario. Most years 43+ is going to avoid the play-in entirely, or be 7th at worst. 43 wins would have been 6th or better in the eastern conference six of the last eight seasons (or five of eight if you don't want to include the bubble) We just got super unlucky, as is our wont, and were the lowest-seeded 43 win team in quite awhile.

It's a moot point though because 43 wins is probably beyond this group's ability, but theoretically if we could pull it off we're probably skating into the postseason. Especially if people start tanking for this exceptional draft.

considering Atlanta improved their roster, Cleveland improved their roster, Washington added Beal back, Kyrie will likely play most of a season for Brooklyn, and New York added Brunson, while we LOST a near all-star talent, I have no illusions that we'll be in the same spot. The rest of the East got tougher. I wouldn't be surprised if the 9 seed has about 47 wins this year. The 10 seed is probably up for grabs with New York, Washington, and us. If one of them is even decent, we're out of it.

[Hornet Mania]

I'll add to the discussion on making the playoffs by pointing out that the 10th seed in the East won 42 games last season and also that if they make the playoffs they are at risk of losing their 1st round pick. So, they'll likely need to go .500 or better just to have a chance at making the 9/10 seed, at which point they'll have to win two games to make the playoffs

I have to quibble with this slightly, because although it was true that 43-39 was only good for 10th last year that's an extremely unusual scenario. Most years 43+ is going to avoid the play-in entirely, or be 7th at worst. 43 wins would have been 6th or better in the eastern conference six of the last eight seasons (or five of eight if you don't want to include the bubble) We just got super unlucky, as is our wont, and were the lowest-seeded 43 win team in quite awhile.

It's a moot point though because 43 wins is probably beyond this group's ability, but theoretically if we could pull it off we're probably skating into the postseason. Especially if people start tanking for this exceptional draft.

considering Atlanta improved their roster, Cleveland improved their roster, Washington added Beal back, Kyrie will likely play most of a season for Brooklyn, and New York added Brunson, while we LOST a near all-star talent, I have no illusions that we'll be in the same spot. The rest of the East got tougher. I wouldn't be surprised if the 9 seed has about 47 wins this year. The 10 seed is probably up for grabs with New York, Washington, and us. If one of them is even decent, we're out of it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm expecting 35 wins max. And you guys are probably right that the East is better and this may be the new normal, but I thought it was worth pointing out that last year was pretty unusual. It was the first season since 2009-2010 where 43 wins didn't get you at least 7th.