Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #48 - 1966-67 Nate Thurmond

[LA Bird]

RealGM Greatest Peaks List (2022)
1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 2012-13 LeBron James
3. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal
4. 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain
6. 2002-03 Tim Duncan
7. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon
8. 1963-64 Bill Russell
9. 1985-86 Larry Bird
10. 1986-87 Magic Johnson
11. 2016-17 Stephen Curry
12. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett
13. 2020-21 Giannis Antetokounmpo
14. 1963-64 Oscar Robertson
15. 1965-66 Jerry West
16. 2021-22 Nikola Jokic
17. 1976-77 Bill Walton
18. 2005-06 Dwyane Wade
19. 2007-08 Kobe Bryant
20. 1993-94 David Robinson
21. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
22. 1975-76 Julius Erving
23. 2010-11 Dirk Nowitzki
24. 2016-17 Kevin Durant
25. 1982-83 Moses Malone
26. 2019-20 Anthony Davis
27. 2006-07 Steve Nash
28. 2014-15 Chris Paul
29. 2018-19 James Harden
30. 1949-50 George Mikan
31. 1989-90 Charles Barkley
32. 1997-98 Karl Malone
33. 1989-90 Patrick Ewing
34. 2002-03 Tracy McGrady
35. 2010-11 Dwight Howard
36. 2021-22 Joel Embiid
37. 1957-58 Bob Pettit
38. 1994-95 Scottie Pippen
39. 1995-96 Penny Hardaway
40. 2015-16 Draymond Green
41. 1974-75 Artis Gilmore
42. 1973-74 Bob Lanier
43. 2016-17 Russell Westbrook
44. 1971-72 Walt Frazier
45. 1999-00 Alonzo Mourning
46. 1969-70 Willis Reed
47. 1960-61 Elgin Baylor
48. 1966-67 Nate Thurmond

Spoiler:

Please vote for your 3 highest player peaks and at least one line of reasoning for each of them.

Vote example 1
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

In addition, you can also list other peak season candidates from those three players. This extra step is entirely optional

Vote example 2
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
(1990 Jordan)
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
(2012 LeBron)
(2009 LeBron)
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

You can visit the project thread for further information on why this makes a difference and how the votes will be counted at the end of the round.

Voting for this round will close on Friday November 4, 9am ET.

[AEnigma]

1. Nate Thurmond a.) 1969 b.) 1967

“Thurmond is the key to our team. You’ve got to have a great center. We have one in Thurmond. The Celtics have Bill Russell, the 76ers have Wilt Chamberlain. We’d still be up there without me but not without Thurmond.” — Rick Barry
The Pittsburgh Press, February 3, 1967

“The growing number of people who think Nate Thurmond is the most valuable big man in pro basketball picked up a whole new group of believers Friday night.”
— LA Times writer Dan Hafer, after the Warriors lose to LA 129-80 without Thurmond
Los Angeles Times, February 4, 1967

“The Warriors, despite Super Soph. Rick Barry’s heroics, never would have won the Western Division title this season nor made it to the playoffs, for that matter, had it not been for Thurmond’s defensive work under the boards.”
The Pittsburgh Press, March 30, 1967

“If there was any doubt prior to this series that San Francisco’s Nate Thurmond is Chamberlain’s heir apparent as the league’s best center, it was quickly dispelled.”
— Christian Science Monitor, April 26, 1967

“Nate Thurmond, the man who is the only heir to Chamberlain and Bill Russell. […] He performed marvelously against Chamberlain; it was not just by choice that Wilt shot so infrequently.” — Frank Deford
Sports Illustrated, May 8, 1967

Oct. 28, 1966, Thurmond had 19 points and 25 rebounds in a 105-104 win over Baltimore, and “blocked a shot by Gus Johnson that would have tied the game […]” (The Sumter Daily Item, Oct. 29, 1966). Jeff Mullins tied up Baltimore’s Don Ohl with 39 seconds left. “With these key plays stopping the Bullets, Jim King connected on a 10-foot jump shot with 26 seconds left for the San Francisco victory” (The Sumter Daily Item, Oct. 29, 1966). Nov. 14, 1966, Thurmond had 20 points, 30 rebounds and 15 blocked shots in a 115-104 win over Detroit (The Evening Independent, Nov. 15, 1966). Dec. 8, 1966, Rick Barry had an off night with 21 points on 8-for-33 shooting (24.2%) in a 116-106 loss to Baltimore, but Thurmond picked up the slack with 30 points. Dec. 22, 1966, Thurmond held Wilt Chamberlain to 14 points (6-12 FG) and outrebounded him 25-22 in a 116-114 loss to Philadelphia (Tri City Herald, Dec. 22, 1966).

Nate Thurmond, Wilt Chamberlain’s understudy when both played for San Francisco, hounded Philadelphia’s super star tenaciously but in vain Thursday night. Thurmond may have won the contest, but the 76ers won the game.

In the only National Basketball Association action, the Philadelphia 76ers outlasted a dogged Warrior squad and won, 116-114, although Thurmond held Chamberlain to 14 points and outrebounded the Big Dipper.

[…]

Thurmond played for years in Chamberlain’s super image. When the Big Dipper was traded by the Warriors to Philadelphia, Thurmond took over as San Francisco’s regular center.

Against Chamberlain, the Warrior center allowed only one field goal in six attempts in the first half. In the final quarter, however, Wilt made five of six attempts from the field and ended with 14 points.

Chamberlain had 22 rebounds and eight assists, Thurmond scored nine points, gathered in 25 rebounds and assisted on three goals.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=sXcoAAAAIBAJ&sjid=IwYGAAAAIBAJ&pg=926,4442937"

In their next meeting, Feb. 2, 1967, Thurmond “blocked eight of Wilt’s shots, dominated both backboards with 23 rebounds and scored 16 points” in a 137-120 win over Philadelphia. “Chamberlain only managed 16 points” (Park City Daily News, Feb. 3, 1967).

San Francisco coach Bill Sharman said, “I consider Nate right in the same class, but kinda in between, a Russell or a Chamberlain. Bill Russell, now who’s a little quicker than either one of ’em, will go to the corners, block a shot, or get back underneath and get the big rebound, or again pick up the cutter. Where Nate, won’t go out quite as far, but he will go out a bit farther than Wilt. Now of course Wilt is much stronger than both of ’em, so he will muscle and do a better job in close”

Rick Barry was All-Star Game MVP with a game-high 38 points (16-27 FG, 6-8 FT)—second only to Wilt Chamberlain’s 42 in 1962, six rebounds and three assists in 34 minutes, but “[t]here are those who think it should have gone to Thurmond. ‘Nate was the equalizer,’ commented Coach Fred Schaus of Los Angeles who directed the West. ‘He was the entire key to the ball game. With Thurmond able to contest the entire East front line (on rebounds), we were able to run. This was our game plan’” (The Sumter Daily Item, Jan. 11, 1967). Thurmond had 16 points (7-16 FG, 2-4 FT) and 18 rebounds in 42 minutes. “Thurmond definitely was the most valuable player,” said Chamberlain. “He did the entire job while Barry just put the ball through the hoop.”

Feb. 5, 1967, Thurmond scored the winning basket on a tip-in with four seconds left and blocked a last shot in a 142-141 overtime win over Chicago. Feb. 10, 1967, Thurmond fractured two bones in his left hand during the second quarter of a 137-136 double overtime loss to Boston (The Free Lance-Star, Feb. 11, 1967). “If Thurmond is out for six weeks, he could miss one or two playoff games. But if he misses eight weeks, his teammates might join him on the sidelines because of elimination.”

Lodi News-Sentinel, March 15, 1967

The San Francisco Warriors clinched the Western Division regular season championship nine days ago, but it’s doubtful if they get anywhere when the National Basketball Association playoffs begin next week.

The combination of numerous injuries and erratic performances by those in good shape have resulted in a flock of defeats. The San Franciscans have lost nine of their last 11 contests and often looked like the worst team in the Western Division rather than the title winner.

The Warriors began to struggle when 6 ft. 11 in. center Nate Thurmond broke his hand against Boston Feb. 10. Thurmond is back but unless he’s in top shape for the playoffs, a doubtful prospect, the San Francisco pros will have a tough time beating anyone.

Sparked by high scoring Rick Barry and Thurmond, the Warriors got off to a fast start last October and had run up a 9½ game lead over second place St. Louis by the middle of January. They were breezing along until Thurmond’s injury.

[Thurmond] led Warriors to NBA Finals, and did best job on Chamberlain of anyone, and the Warriors did better in the postseason against the 76ers than anyone else. “It was a personal thing for us to fight back,” Thurmond said after San Francisco won Game 3. “Boston took only one game from the 76ers and as a matter of pride we want to do better than the Celtics [...].”

[1967] DRtg

Code: Select all

1.  Boston        91.2
2.  San Francisco 92.9
3.  Detroit       94.6
4.  Chicago       94.8
5.  Philadelphia  95.1
LEAGUE AVG.       96.1
6.  Los Angeles   97.3
7.  St. Louis     97.6
8.  Baltimore     98.2
9.  Cincinnati    98.8
10. New York      100.9

Ran the +/- for [1967] Thurmond:
w/out Thurmond - 119.1 ppg 126.6 opp ppg
with Thurmond - 123.2 ppg 117.8 opp ppg
That's a monstrous +12.9. It should be noted that the number is exaggerated by a pretty difficult schedule (SRS 1.13, 9H 6A).

Doing some rudimentary (i.e. no real SRS or even MOV analysis) WOWY work of my own…
1967: 38-26 with (3-0 with no Barry), 6-11 without (all with Barry in)
1968 (Barry gone): 32-19 with, 9-20 without
1969: 38-33 with, 3-8 without
1970: 21-21 with, 9-31 without
OVERALL 1967-70: 46.5-win pace with, 23-win pace without

So after all that, why am I giving preference to 1969 Thurmond?

I think his team anchoring without Barry was more laudable. Thurmond takes a lot of grief for his poor shot efficiency, and some have even unfairly maligned him as a chucker (he was not, he just played heavy minutes in a fast league). Look at those 1969 Warriors. Jeff Mullins is rightfully their leading scorer, although that year I think there around fifteen scorers I would take over him. Past Mullins, they have an inefficient Rudy LaRusso as their second option, and then by necessity Nate Thurmond is the third option. Thurmond is an ineffective scorer, do not get me wrong, and this is his biggest weakness relative to almost every other all-time centre. If you need Thurmond to be your third best scorer, it is pretty ugly… but man, not many teams would ever need Thurmond to handle the scoring load needed on the 1969 Warriors. The team also misses their best passer for 30 games, further exacerbating their offensive situation. Terrible offensive year, but the team structure makes him looks worse than he actually is, and I do not really believe that his 1967 self would do any better or that his 1969 self would do worse on the 1967 team.

The playoffs come around. The Warriors build a shocking 2-0 road lead against the Lakers. And then… Jeff Mullins gets hurt. He manages to be in half-decent playing shape by Game 6 (which turns into a brutal blow-out), but by then it is too late. Games 3-5, he averages 3 points in 18.7 minutes per game on 20% efficiency. The team’s only real scoring option, reduced to that. How many centres are winning in that circumstance? You look at what Russell did that year on the Celtics. Do team results change if you swap the two of them for the postseason? Margins were close in the Finals, but I am not sure the results do change (setting aside Russell’s unparalleled clutch factor). And what would we say if Jeff Mullins stays healthy, and the Lakers are pushed to seven games or possibly even lose? I recognise these are not undeniable arguments to take 1969 over 1967, and you can just as easily ponder the what-if where the 1967 Warriors make one more free throw in Game 1 of the Finals and push the Greatest Team Ever to a seventh game, but I do feel 1969 is a little more individually impressive with how much disruption Thurmond was able to impose on a dramatically more talented team (much as what he did to the Bucks a few years later).

2. Dave Cowens a.) 1974 b.) 1973 c.) 1976
As we approach #50 and as distinctions between player evaluations become increasingly thin, I find myself wanting to reward the remaining “winners” to close out the project. Cowens was the best player on a top three SRS team every year from 1973-76, winning two titles in that stretch. In 1973 the Celtics did not win a title, but Cowens did win MVP and take the 1973 Knicks to a tight seven games even as Havlicek was hampered by injury. 1975 was probably his best individual regular season, but a disappointing playoff performance is enough for me to exclude it from my alternates with all four years being otherwise pretty comparable (his defence saw a gradual decline as his passing saw a gradual improvement).

He may not have been named MVP of the NBA Finals in 1974 or 1976, but undersized Hall of Fame Boston center Dave Cowens was the key force in winning both clinching games of those memorable championship series for the Celtics.

In the 1970's no one played harder for Boston, or anyone else for that matter, with apologies to Jerry Sloan, Norm Van Lier and Dave DeBusschere, than the fiery 6-8.5 redhead.

In game seven of the epic 1974 NBA Finals, the Celtics faced the tall task of beating Milwaukee on the road. Buck center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was in his youthful prime and enjoyed nearly a six-inch height advantage - which was probably close to a foot when reach is included - over Cowens.

…

The Bucks had forced a seventh game by winning a double overtime classic in Boston just two days earlier, when Jabbar's long running baseline hook over Celtic backup center Hank Finkel gave Milwaukee a see-saw 102-101 victory.

Cowens had fouled out earlier in overtime, or the outcome may well have been different, with the Celtics likely celebrating title number 12 at home.

John Havlicek had traded baskets with the 7-2 Jabbar throughout the final extra session, scoring nine of his 36 points in the second OT, but Kareem got the last shot in.

Yet a hustling play by Cowens that came to epitomize his career happened late in that classic sixth contest. Dave switched off on a pick defensively to cover Robertson, then used his quick hands to poke the ball away from the Hall of Famer.

The speedy center then out-sprinted the 6-5 guard for the loose ball, which rolled into the backcourt. Cowens dove for the ball and slid with it near the sidelines while the loose leather bobbled in and out of his arms. Oscar trailed the play and never left his feet, almost in disbelief at the bigger man's reckless dive.

Cowens left a sweat streak about 10 feet long on the old Garden parquet, probably along with some skin. While the Bucks argued that he never had possession of the ball, the referees correctly ruled that the 24-second clock had nevertheless run out to give Boston the ball.

Not long after, Cowens fouled out with just 13 points on five of 19 shooting, and his absence contributed to the series-tying Buck win. Determined to redeem himself, the proud Celtic star came out firing in game seven.

Boston came up with a new strategy to aid Dave. The Boston braintrust decided to pressure the aging Robertson hard with defensive ace Don Chaney while he brought the ball upcourt.

And then once Milwaukee was into its halfcourt offense, coach Tom Heinsohn had Paul Silas, Havlicek and others also double down and help while Cowens fronted and battled Jabbar for position.

After he was told about the change in defensive strategy, Dave would relate years later in an interview that he felt like saying, "Yes! I am finally going to get some help on this guy."

After having the redhead go one-on-one for six games with the much bigger man who was the total focal point of their offense, Jabbar had averaged almost 34 points per game, so the Celtic brass felt it had to try something.

By not having to expend as much energy defending the 7-2 Jabbar alone, it seemed as if Cowens had been unchained and energized for the decisive contest.

On offense, the muscular Cowens used his superior speed and quickness to take the slower Jabbar out on the floor and drive by him, taking advantage of Kareem's relative lack of lateral quickness.

The high-leaping, aggressive Cowens won the opening jump over Jabbar and tapped it it to Havlicek, who fed a cutting Chaney perfectly for a layup that set an immediate, positive tone in the contest for the Celtics.

As time ran out in the first period, Dave bombed a 25-footer from the right side at the buzzer that went straight in to give Boston a 22-20 lead.

The Celtics lengthened the lead late in the half as their defense stymied Jabbar and Robertson. Dave triggered the vaunted Celtic fast break with a defensive rebound and airborne outlet pass that led to a 16-footer by Don Nelson.

Shortly afterward, Cowens nailed consecutive foul line jumpers that gave the visitors a 53-40 intermission edge. Their defensive strategy, cooked up between games six and seven by Celtic patriarch Red Auerbach, Heinsohn and the legendary Bob Cousy, was working almost to perfection.

Robertson, who had played for Cousy in Cincinnati before their falling out led to the Big O's trade to Milwaukee, was hounded into perhaps the worst playoff game of his career at a very inopportune time.

If nothing else, the all-court pressure put on by the quicker Celtics rushed the Bucks and took vital seconds off the shot clock, forcing hurried decisions and field goal tries. With veteran leader and playmaker Robertson flustered, the Buck offense floundered.

As a result, scoring machine Jabbar was amazingly held without a single point in the entire second stanza and for half of the third period. This was a major drought when one realizes that Kareem came into game seven averaging his number per outing in the 1974 playoffs (33).

…

At the other end, Boston closed the door with a clever bit of body control and quick reactions. Cowens missed a half hook in the lane that richocheted off Jabbar's hands to a nearly-prone Westphal, who was just getting up off the hardwood after being floored while setting a screen.

Paul then hung in the air as he looked to shoot a short jumper over the looming 7-2 Buck center. But at the last second, he double-clutched and instead tossed a beautifully improvised short alley-oop pass to Cowens past Jabbar. Dave caught the ball in the air on the right side of the lane and cleverly kissed it in off glass before Kareem could recover. That was the final nail in the Milwaukee coffin.

…

Havlicek, who enjoyed a great series, was named Finals MVP even though he tallied a modest 16 points on six of 20 shooting in the decisive contest.

His second fourth quarter three-point play on a foul line jumper as he was hit in the stomach capped a decisive 11-0 spurt that put the game well out of reach, 98-79.

But the game seven MVP was definitely Big Red. The final box score showed Cowens with game-high totals of 28 points and 14 rebounds, compared to 26 and 13 for Jabbar.

Yet the considerable numbers did not show his great intangible contribution, as well. Or how much energy the fiery redhead had supplied his team. Nor how his defense had helped Kareem wear down and fade. He sank just six of 11 free throws in the game and went scoreless for over a third of the game in the crucial middle section when Boston took command.

Or how Cowens had ignited the deadly Celtic transition game with his defensive rebounding and quick outlet bullets, often firing his passes in midair while coming down with the carom.

…

Due in large part to the scrambling defensive strategy of Boston, Jabbar only took 21 shots in the decisive seventh contest, six below his series average for attempts to that point.

He also converted only 10 field goals after making 14.5 baskets per contest over the first six games - well below his 54 percent shooting accuracy to that point in the title series.

…

The grueling style of play that the speedy 1970's Celtics employed, in concert with a short bench and going deep into the playoffs each year (and thus having shorter off-seasons), had started to take a toll on the club. Plus, team captain Havlicek and sixth man Don Nelson were each 36.

In 1976, a grizzled Boston squad fought its way to the Finals despite a foot injury to Havlicek. It was the 13th Celtic championship series appearance in 20 years, and the last before the Larry Bird era.

…

It was Cowens who took over and scored seven points in a clutch 9-4 Celtic spurt that clinched the crown.

Despite being plagued with five fouls, the redhead gambled and came up with the biggest play of the game. As Adams drove along the right side of the lane, Dave dangerously reached in and poked the ball away from the Rookie of the Year, lunging to tip the loose sphere away from Adams.

He then snatched up the loose ball and dribbled, or more accurately roared, 80 feet upcourt at top speed on a 2 on 1 fast break, a runaway red-headed center locomotive.

As he approached the basket, the Celtic center crossed over to the right side and gave a slight head fake to freeze defender Heard. Dave then laid in a twisting backhanded layup over his shoulder while being fouled. He cashed in the free throw to give Boston a 71-67 lead and a huge momentum swing.

After a Phoenix score, Dave sealed Adams outside the low block and took a perfectly timed top-side feed from Charlie Scott before converting a right-handed layin for a 73-69 advantage.

Cowens then forced a bad miss by Adams by hotly contesting his 15-footer. Adams later canned two foul shots to cut the lead back to two. Yet Havlicek swished a clutch 18-footer from the left wing to make it 75-71.

After a Westphal miss, Dave took an entry pass and spun quickly along the right baseline with his trademark move past Adams for a pretty layup. The pet move gave Boston a little breathing room with a 77-71 margin at the 3:29 mark.

White banked in a tough right side runner and added a free throw to stretch the lead to nine, and it was all over but the shouting as Boston ultimately held on to win, 87-80.

After the final buzzer sounded, a tired Cowens hugged retiring teammate Nelson as they strode off the court as champions for the last time. For Nellie, it was a satisfying fifth ring after being released by the Lakers over a decade earlier.

With White struggling and Hondo hurt, it was clearly the clutch late offensive burst from Cowens that capped banner number 13. His aggressive, all-out defense also led to a drought of over five minutes without a basket for the Suns down the stretch.

Even though Dave scored 21 points in the decisive win, paced the defense and led all players in rebounds during the series while averaging 20.5 ppg, teammate JoJo White (21.7 ppg) was named Finals MVP.

Yet in true Cowens fashion, Dave probably didn't care that much, as long as Boston won. He was simply about winning, an undersized center who won on great athleticism (strength, speed, quickness and jumping ability), high basketball intelligence, skill, and a burning desire as bright as his red mane.

"There is no player with greater desire than Dave Cowens," said CBS commentator and fiery Hall of Famer Rick Barry during the 1976 Finals.

A powerful leaper, Cowens frequently won jump balls against much taller centers like Jabbar and an older Chamberlain, and used great positioning to frustrate Kareem and occasionally block his shots as well by forcing him to turn back to his right shoulder, away from his patented hook.

Back then a center jump ball was held at the start of each quarter, and if that rule seems antiquated, consider that the original rules up through the 1930's required that there be a center jump after every basket. So each quarter jump ball could be a key extra possession gained.

As Havlicek, who played the first seven seasons of his career with the great Bill Russell and then his final eight with Cowens, the 1970-71 co-Rookie of the Year, once said - "no one ever did more for the Celtics than Dave Cowens."

In the post-game six locker room TV interviews with CBS, Havlicek reinforced this claim. "We were able to keep Dave on the floor (not foul out), and that made the difference," said Hondo.

Unfortunately, Dave's all-out style and annual deep playoff runs eventually contributed to his body breaking down by the time he reached his early 30's.

…

Heinsohn, who after the death of Red Auerbach assumed the mantel of Mr. Celtic after 50-plus years as star player, championship coach and team announcer, called his 1970's Boston teams "the quickest of all Celtic clubs."

As such he designed a revolutionary point center/forward type of up-tempo offense to take advantage of the extraordinary blend of skills, athleticism and desire of his speedy red-headed center and Havlicek, as well as the sharpshooting White.

Those Celtics did not have a true point guard. White, Chaney and Havlicek shared the ballhandling duties, while Cowens often directed the offense from the top of the key with his passing, driving and shooting ability.

Cowens’ Backpicks WOWYR scores are a bit underwhelming, but I was pretty impressed with what I saw from a similar type of raw win-loss analysis as I did with Thurmond.
1972: 54-25, 2-1
1973: 68-14
1974: 55-25, 1-1
1975: 51-14, 9-8
1976: 52-26, 2-2
1977: 29-21, 15-17
1978: 32-45, 0-5
1979: 27-41, 2-12
Overall: 368-211 with (52-win pace), 31-46 without (33-win pace)
And then even in 1980 he at least contributed to what would be the second-best regular season SRS team of Bird’s career.

So much historical love for the 1970s Knicks, and generally speaking quite a lot of historical love for Barry (even if in this particular project his voters have been trailed off), but never all too much for Cowens; maybe if Finals MVP voters had extended the same generosity to him as they twice did to Reed, he would see a little more of a consistent push.

3. Luka Doncic (2022)
4. Rick Barry (1975)
Still hoping three of these four close out the top fifty. Luka is the most consistent postseason performer and has the highest ceiling in future projects; his defence bothers me, but his size offers enough ahead of a Trae or Lillard that I feel he could be hidden to a somewhat similar extent as what we saw with Harden (although for me peak Harden has shown enough more on that end to prefer him). Barry and Erving were the two best wings in basketball up to Jordan’s entry onto the stage. Wing-play has evolved along with the game, but seeing as I have been unable to decide between George, Butler, and Tatum, I am fine deferring to more of a legacy/accolade pick this late in the project.

[trelos6]

48. Grant Hill 96-97. Pre injury Grant was a beast. Shame we never got to see his full potential. 23.2 pp75 on +2 rTS% with 3.5 O-PIPM and 1.7 D-PIPM. This is the only season I’d have above Reggie Miller.

49. Reggie Miller 93-94. A gravity unrivalled until Steph came into the league. His ability to space the floor for teammates and ramp up his scoring in the post season is why he's here. One of the most portable players of all time and a big ceiling raiser. 23 pp75 at +10.8 rTS%. Had about 9 seasons similar, so they’re all pretty close.


50: Manu Ginobili 04-05 > 06-07, 10-11. 21.9 pp75 @ +8 rTS%. +7.1 PIPM (4.4 OPIPM, 2.7 DPIPM). Amazing season, and fantastic playoffs.

51. Bob McAdoo 1974-75. 26.7 pp75 @ + 6.7% rTS. +4.6 PIPM (4.1 OPIPM, 0,5 DPIPM). NBA MVP.

52. Paul George 18-19. 26.6 pp75 @ + 2.6% rTS. +6.1 PIPM (3.9 OPIPM, 2.2 DPIPM). 3rd in MVP.

53. Paul Pierce 01-02. 25.3 pp75 @ + 5.0% rTS. + 5.2 PIPM (3.3 OPIPM, 1.9 DPIPM).

[Samurai]

1. Connie Hawkins 1968. Another great season from yesteryear that if too often overlooked today. Yes, era strength is a legit concern, probably as much or more than it was for Mikan. But if not for era strength, I would have put Hawkins in before now so its a question of how much we want to continue penalizing him for it. Led the league in scoring at 26.8 ppg while playing nearly 45 minutes/game. Also led the league in PER, OWS, WS, WS/48, and TS% and finished second in rebounds/game, third in assists/game and even fourth in DWS. Was league MVP, won a ring and picked up the Playoffs MVP as well.

2. Dave Cowens 1973 (alternate 76, 74). Gotta admit that a big part of this is I was just a big fan of his game. Incredible motor who just ran with an all-out pedal-to-the medal style every minute he was on the court. Outstanding rebounder (particularly on the defensive glass), could hit the midrange jumper enough to force opposing bigs away from the paint, and a very effective lefty hook in the low post despite not being the tallest center around. While not a shot-blocker due to short arms, he was a very good defensive player in all other aspects.

3. Rick Barry 1975. As a Warriors fan, I've obviously seen Barry play a lot. And I've never been a fan, largely because of his demeanor. When he was upset, which happened pretty frequently, he would pout on the court unlike anyone I've ever seen past the 6th grade. Literally pout - just stand there and be completely disengaged from the game. Throw the ball to him and he'd just immediately throw it back to you as if he were disgusted that you tried to include him in the game. At that point, Attles had no choice but to sub him out since he would just be playing 4 on 5. I was disgusted that a professional would act that way. But when he was engaged, he was a tremendous player and that's what I'm basing this on. Outstanding shooter and scorer and the best passing forward in the game until Bird came along. Not much on the offensive glass but a solid defensive rebounder for a 3. He was also an underrated defender. True, he didn't like overly physical play and he could be taken advantage of if a bigger guy went at him down low. But he was a decent man defender on the wing, particularly earlier in his career before he lost a step in quickness and was an excellent help defender, leading the league in steals and being an overall defensive pest.

[f4p]

wow, you guys haven't picked luka yet? 50 people have been better than 2022 luka just manhandling a 64 win #1 seed and having a career playoff PPG almost as high as jordan? that's like looking back on a 1987 project and seeing 1987 jordan was only like #38 or something.

[AEnigma]

If 1987 Jordan had been a significant defensive negative, sure.

I am voting for him to make the top 50 but the criticisms are pretty easy.

[70sFan]

If 1987 Jordan had been a significant defensive negative, sure.

I am voting for him to make the top 50 but the criticisms are pretty easy.

Not to mention that his scoring, although very good, is not on another level to the other players left. I mean, Doncic has a massive volume but he's not that efficient. If we compare him to the best scorers left, I don't see the clear separation:

2022 Doncic: 30.3 pp75 on +0.5 rTS% in RS, 33.5 pp75 on +3.0 rTS% in PS

1995 Miller: 24.2 pp75 on +7.7 rTS% in RS, 29.1 pp75 on +10.5 rTS% in PS
1979 Gervin: 28.4 pp75 on +6.6 rTS% in RS, 29.0 pp75 on +7.7 rTS% in PS
1956 Arizin: 25.7 pp75 on +6.8 rTS% in RS, 28.3 pp75 on +7.1 rTS% in PS
1984 Dantley: 28.4 pp75 on +10.9 rTS% in RS, 28.0 pp75 on +4.0 rTS% in PS
1984 King: 28.2 pp75 on +7.6 rTS% in RS, 33.0 pp75 on +8.8 rTS% in PS
1975 McAdoo: 30.9 pp75 on +6.7 rTS% in RS, 33.0 pp75 on +5.2 rTS% in PS

Now, Doncic is better than most of these players on offense because of his playmaking abilities, but talking about his scoring as the reason why he's a lock top 50 is a stretch to me.

[70sFan]

1. 1971/72 Nate Thurmond HM: 1966/67, 1968/69

Nate Thurmond isn't typically the type of guy that gets a lot of love for his peak and I'm so glad to see him finally getting votes Now, let's move into the reason why I put him on my voting list.

Thurmond's WOWY numbers are well known here. As AEnigma described well in his post, the Warriors were extremely depended on Thurmond's availability. They actually didn't need Rick Barry as much as they needed Nate. Why is this the case? Because Thurmond singlehandly anchored their defense. Defense is the reason why he's so high.

You may look in the first place at Warriors relative defensive ratings and come out unimpressed, but the biggest reason why his numbers don't look amazing is because Thurmond usually missed a lot of time and Warriors collapsed without him.

When you actually decide to watch his games, it's not a surprise why he had such an immense impact. He was a solid 6'11 man without the shoes with absurdly long arms. Seriously, if you haven't seen him in action before, you'd be shocked how long his arms were. What's also very important is that Thurmond was very athletic. He had a perfect body for a defensive center and his deceptive quickness often surprised perimeter players who tried to blow him by. Here is a short highlight reel I made presenting some of the better Thurmond plays on defensive end:

Watch on YouTube

If you want to feel his pressence in the paint, you can check basically any full game we have of him:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

If you want to see how his offensive game looked like during his prime, there is no better way than to watch this short Thurmond's highlight video made by the NBA last season for the Archive 75 project:

Watch on YouTube

You can understand why he had so much problem with his scoring efficiency. He took a lot of inefficient shots and like most players in the league, he wasn't that good at making them. A small bouns is that he was very active without the ball and tried to help his teammates with screening and spreading out the floor, so he wasn't a complete liability. Despite his scoring inefficiency, he was fairly athletic player, who could finish inside on a move even over shotblockers:

Watch on YouTube

Why did I decided to go with 1972 over 1967? Two main reasons - health and offensive improvement. I don't have enough footage to draw a clear conclusion of his defensive impact for 1967 vs 1972, but I know enough about his offense. It seems that he did become a bit better outside shooter as he got older (which is also visible in his FT% improvement) and I like his passing a bit more in these early 1970s years. He never became Tom Boerwinkle or anything close to it, but he was a very willing passer and could make some more advanced reads (he threw some beautiful outlet passes as well). Him arguably outplaying individually 1972 Kareem is just the icing on the cake, even though Warriors weren't really competitive in the series.

I can be persuated to pick 1967 or 1969 over 1972, but for now that's my choice. For anyone interested, I also have some high quality clips of Nate from the 1965 season without Wilt on the team.

2. 1993/94 Dikembe Mutombo HM: 1996/97

I will copy my arguments for Thurmond over Dikembe:

I think Mutombo has the advantage in rim protection. Deke is literally the GOAT-level rim protector and as great as Thurmond was at that, I think he was a level below that. Not only Mutombo was simply taller, I like his shot contesting technique a bit more as well, as he knew how to position himself better inside and used his arms a little better.

There are two reasons why I pick Thurmond over Deke:

1. Thurmond was better in basically every other aspect of defense. I'm not sure how to compare their P&R defense, but Nate certainly had a lot more value in switching schemes which made him more versatile. His quickness was just incredible for his size. That made Thurmond significantly better man defender overall (not only in the post). Of course he was far better post defender as well. I also like the effort Nate put consistently on the glass, he rarely left his man without boxing out (and he dealt with Wilt on the glass better than anyone, at least based on eye test).

2. I like Thurmond's offensive game a little bit more. He was inefficient, that's a fact - but he was also very active and he never stopped moving, trying to set screens, fight on the glass or spreading the floor. Mutombo was probably a bit better post scorer, but I wouldn't give him the edge in post offense overall, because Nate was a far better passer (that's a big Deke's weakness). To his credit though - Mutombo was a far better finisher and offensive rebounder, so it probably depends more on the system they'd play in.

I decided to pick younger, more mobile version of Mutombo who absolutely dominated the opposing offenses in the playoffs. He was as close to a one-man defensive army as it is possible in that run. He averaged staggering 9.3 BLK% in the playoffs in almost 43 mpg, which is nothing short of incredible. All of that came without excessive gambling, he was a very fundamentally sound rim protector.

I don't love his offensive game, but he was a solid finisher and excellent offensive rebounder. He could also draw many fouls and although his FT% is quite poor, it's not to the level of hurting his team.

I have a tough time picking Dikembe/Thurmond over the next offensive superstars (Doncic, Baylor, Barry), but I think more with time that top tier defensive anchors are significantly underappreciated. I mean, Nuggets were one game away from playing the WCF, even though Mutombo had no star around him and they had to face two contender-level teams in both rounds. Dikembe had no strong defenders around him and even though Nuggets were offensive oriented, they weren't that good on that end either. I doubt Doncic would get further with equally talented team.

3. 1985/86 Kevin McHale HM: 1986/87, 1987/88

I think people don't realize how important McHale was to these Celtics teams. McHale might be the most underrated scorer ever - he never reached the volume of top tier first options, but he was the type of player you just can't gameplan against - he would always get his typical 22-24 ppg on +10 rTS%.

Unlike most finishers, McHale wasn't really reliant on playmakers - yeah, you have to give him the ball inside, but you don't need Magic Johnson for that... or even Larry Bird. In 1989 without Larry, McHale still posted 23 pp75 on +7.1 rTS%. Kevin didn't specialize on finishing high efficiency actions either, he mostly used his absurd shooting touch to finish low post attempts and deep catches. He was always very quick with his decisions and didn't waste much time when he got the ball. Despite having a reputation of a black hole, McHale relied on a few perfected moves to score quickly off the catch - turnaround jumpshot, right-handed hook, quick up and under. Seriously, McHale is probably the most fundamentally sound post player I have ever seen (at least among bigs) when you take into account the way he worked without the ball to establish position. You can't get any better than that.

I picked 1986 version, because I prefer his defense when he was younger and quicker. 1987 would a clear choice without the PS injury though, he was a legit MVP-level player in the RS in my opinion.

4. 2021/22 Luka Doncic HM: 2020/21

I think he might be a bit underrated in this peak project, but I still have some concerns about his game - mediocre and exploitable defender, poor off-ball player and very ball-dominant offensive star. Still, I can't deny that his creation ability is among the best ever and at this point, we don't have any offensive savants without any weaknesses left.

I thought about Barry as well, but after watching quite a lot of 1975 Warriors games recently, I came out with mixed feelings about him. He was certainly very impactful offensive player with his creativity and off-ball movement, but unlike someone like Steph or Reggie, Barry couldn't really create efficient shots at this point of his career and he relied extremely heavily on midrange game. He was good at it, don't get me wrong, but he's not GOAT level midrange shooter either. Rick just couldn't pressure opponents inside at this point, his slashing game was a bit limited and despite excellent vision and passing skills, he wasn't a great ball-handler to operate as a top tier playmaker. I give him credit for very quick decision making, excellent ability to read the action in almost no time and very refined P&R game, despite limited ball-handling skills.

I am also mixed about his defense - he certainly did more on that end than Luka, but he was a big time gambler with good awareness, but limited physical tools. I think he could look worse in a weaker defensive team to be honest.

Still, if someone can convince me that Barry deserves the nod over Doncic, I can go with that direction. I often struggle to compare off-ball shooters to heliocentric stars in terms of offensive impact, it's quite possible that I underrate Rick here.

HM: 1995 Reggie Miller - another one who could be underrated by my evaluation. Not much of a defender or playmaker, but amazing scorer with a lot of off-ball value. I also can be convinced that he should be ahead of Luka.

HM II: 1959 Hagan, 1956 Arizin, 1974 Havlicek, 2022 Butler, 2019 George, 1968 Hawkins, 1976 Cowens

[falcolombardi]

If 1987 Jordan had been a significant defensive negative, sure.

I am voting for him to make the top 50 but the criticisms are pretty easy.

Is also worth asking ourselves, if jordan got injured and was never the same again after 87', penny or bernard king style, how high would we actually be o his 87 season as a peak

If we asked this now the knowledge of the improvements of jordan gane post 87' and his later success would bias us towards ranking his 87 season highly,

but if a player with a different name in the 80's had a similar season to 87 jordan before injuries derailed his career would we rank that player peak higher that, lets say, 96 penny hardaway?

Is not as clear to me.

[70sFan]

If 1987 Jordan had been a significant defensive negative, sure.

I am voting for him to make the top 50 but the criticisms are pretty easy.

Is also worth asking ourselves, if jordan got injured and was never the same again after 87', penny or bernard king style, how high would we actually be o his 87 season as a peak

If we asked this now the knowledge of the improvements of jordan gane post 87' and his later success would bias us towards ranking his 87 season highly,

but if a player with a different name in the 80's had a similar season to 87 jordan before injuries derailed his career would we rank that player peak higher that, lets say, 96 penny hardaway?

Is not as clear to me.

I mean, compare that to 1982 Gervin for example. You may think "that's absurd comparison", but they actually have similar RS scoring performances and Gervin actually anchored better offensive team than Jordan without a great cast:

1982 Gervin: 32.8 pp75 on +2.4 rTS%
1987 Jordan: 35.4 pp75 on +2.4 rTS%

Nobody talks about how we underrate Gervin right now, even though he's likely a better scorer than Doncic at his peak.

[trex_8063]

Again popping in for some fellows I think might be getting on toward overdue....

1st ballot: '22 Jimmy Butler (> '20) decided I need to put him in here.
Very comparable to Pippen, imo. I think you can make a case he's marginally better, in fact (though health/availability is a consideration). So given Pippen went in nearly 10 places ago.....


2nd: '22 Luka Doncic ('21, '20)
Not real sure to place him, but with Westbrook in he should definitely be in the mix (can we say to a certainty Westbrook was any better?).


3rd: '86 Kevin McHale
Strictly in term of volume and shooting efficiency, this is one of the greatest individual scoring seasons of all-time. It seems he was pretty good defensively, too. Oh, and it was for an all-time tier championship team.


4th: '75 Bob McAdoo
5th: '68 Connie Hawkins
6th: '06 Elton Brand
7th: '14 Kevin Love
8th: '92 Clyde Drexler
9th: '94 Reggie Miller [>'95, other seasons kinda close]
10th: '89 John Stockton ['88, '90, others close]
11th: '75 Rick Barry
12th: '22 Rudy Gobert [>'21, '19]
13th: '72 Nate Thurmond ['67]

.....something like that. They're all so bloody close at this point.

[f4p]

If 1987 Jordan had been a significant defensive negative, sure.

I am voting for him to make the top 50 but the criticisms are pretty easy.

if luka goes on to have 10 more seasons just like 2022 (or very similar), he's going to be a top 20 player all time at minimum. and if the mavs put a good team around him, there's no reason he doesn't turn a WCF into a few titles, at which point he'll be getting plenty of top 10 talk, but still with a fringe top 50 peak since none of the seasons were better than this one? seems pretty unlikely. just people not wanting to recognize someone on a peaks list early in their career, but this is a pretty extreme example i would say.

[f4p]

If 1987 Jordan had been a significant defensive negative, sure.

I am voting for him to make the top 50 but the criticisms are pretty easy.

the positives are also pretty easy. there is no offensive weapon like him anywhere near down here. his game 7 against phoenix was a thing only the absolute greats do, and that might not even be a 20 person list. draining 3's while laughing while causing the other team to just implode in on themselves. a game where you know you're the best player on the court and you know they know you're the best player on the court and can't do anything about it. scoring 30 in the first half before they get to 30. that's hardly on anybody's resume, much less 50 people. and it's not like he doesn't have basically 4 other amazing playoff series already under his belt to make us realize it's not a fluke.

Not to mention that his scoring, although very good, is not on another level to the other players left. I mean, Doncic has a massive volume but he's not that efficient. If we compare him to the best scorers left, I don't see the clear separation:

2022 Doncic: 30.3 pp75 on +0.5 rTS% in RS, 33.5 pp75 on +3.0 rTS% in PS

1995 Miller: 24.2 pp75 on +7.7 rTS% in RS, 29.1 pp75 on +10.5 rTS% in PS
1979 Gervin: 28.4 pp75 on +6.6 rTS% in RS, 29.0 pp75 on +7.7 rTS% in PS
1956 Arizin: 25.7 pp75 on +6.8 rTS% in RS, 28.3 pp75 on +7.1 rTS% in PS
1984 Dantley: 28.4 pp75 on +10.9 rTS% in RS, 28.0 pp75 on +4.0 rTS% in PS
1984 King: 28.2 pp75 on +7.6 rTS% in RS, 33.0 pp75 on +8.8 rTS% in PS
1975 McAdoo: 30.9 pp75 on +6.7 rTS% in RS, 33.0 pp75 on +5.2 rTS% in PS

Now, Doncic is better than most of these players on offense because of his playmaking abilities, but talking about his scoring as the reason why he's a lock top 50 is a stretch to me.

well yes, his unbelievable creation on top of unbelievable scoring volume is sort of the point though. no one else in this range is particularly close. and anyone who is even remotely close certainly isn't a lockdown defender. luka's a one man offense who hasn't been stoppable in the playoffs for 3 straight years. his playoff 33 pp75 career average matches king's career high and is actually slightly ahead of MJ's career mark. while being one of the best passer's ever. while giving very good clippers teams everything they wanted. while punking a 64 win team with a 33/10/7 series (who else on the list has a series like this?). sometimes we have to take the 30,000 foot view instead of trying to figure out if this xxxPM or that yyyPM stat says something happened. there aren't 50 players who have had that game 7. or that series. or those playoffs.

and i didn't say his scoring is why he's a top 50 lock. i pointed to an amazing series he had and then additionally pointed out that he was within a whisper of MJ's playoff scoring average, which is famously a country mile ahead of everyone else in history, so if someone is within a whisper, they must be pretty amazing. it seems clear from nba history that scoring quantity has a quality of its own. part of this is because it's not really the TS% above average that's important, it's probably more like the TS% above replacement that's important (because the possessions by the best players are more likely to be replacing very bad possessions in a playoff setting as opposed to a regular season setting), which tends to slightly nerf the crazy TSAdd advantage of a +10 to +3 (miller to doncic) when it's probably more like a +17 to +10 (or whatever one thinks replacement TS% is). it's how kobe can lead the 2008-2010 lakers without being ultra efficient. how hakeem and duncan with mediocre offensive teammates could take up tons of offensive possessions for teams that won the title without having amazing TS%'s. how even someone i don't like in allen iverson could trip and fall into a finals in a weak east, because the quantity still mattered a lot even if the efficiency was bad.

[LA Bird]

I am away this weekend so I will vote now to avoid another tie and deadline extension.

1. 1975 Bob McAdoo
• The best statistical peak relative to era of any remaining players (link)
• All time level volume scoring and efficiency with era-portable skillsets
• Averaged 37.4 points on +4.5% TS in the playoffs against a -6.4 defense with Unseld/Hayes frontcourt
• Great weakside shotblocker with underrated athleticism but can get bodied by stronger physical Cs

2. 1967 Nate Thurmond
• GOAT man defender in the low post and locked up Kareem, Wilt in their peak RS (67 Wilt: 24 ppg on 64% TS -> 18 ppg on 50% TS. 72 Kareem: 35 ppg on 60% TS -> 23 ppg on 43% TS)
• All time level impact metrics in 67/68 but it came with missed games

3. 2021 Luka Doncic (2022, 2020)
• I haven't added Doncic into my all time rankings yet but this seems like a good spot for him (if not a little too low)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here are the results for round 48

Winner: 67 Thurmond

There were 6 voters in this round: AEnigma, trelos6, Samurai, 70sFan, trex_8063, LA Bird

A total of 36 seasons received at least 1 vote: 02 Pierce, 05 Ginobili, 06 Brand, 07 Ginobili, 11 Ginobili, 14 Love, 19 George, 19 Gobert, 20 Butler, 20 Doncic, 21 Doncic, 21 Gobert, 22 Butler, 22 Doncic, 22 Gobert, 67 Thurmond, 68 Hawkins, 69 Thurmond, 72 Thurmond, 73 Cowens, 74 Cowens, 75 Barry, 75 McAdoo, 76 Cowens, 86 McHale, 87 McHale, 88 McHale, 88 Stockton, 89 Stockton, 90 Stockton, 92 Drexler, 94 Miller, 94 Mutombo, 95 Miller, 97 Hill, 97 Mutombo

Top 10 seasons: 22 Doncic, 67 Thurmond, 75 McAdoo, 69 Thurmond, 86 McHale, 21 Doncic, 68 Hawkins, 73 Cowens, 74 Cowens, 76 Cowens

H2H record (1 season per player)
67 Thurmond: 0.652 (15-8)
22 Doncic: 0.609 (14-9)
75 McAdoo: 0.565 (13-10)
86 McHale: 0.421 (8-11)
73 Cowens: 0.364 (8-14)
68 Hawkins: 0.350 (7-13)

[AEnigma]

If 1987 Jordan had been a significant defensive negative, sure.

I am voting for him to make the top 50 but the criticisms are pretty easy.

the positives are also pretty easy. there is no offensive weapon like him anywhere near down here. his game 7 against phoenix was a thing only the absolute greats do, and that might not even be a 20 person list. draining 3's while laughing while causing the other team to just implode in on themselves. a game where you know you're the best player on the court and you know they know you're the best player on the court and can't do anything about it. scoring 30 in the first half before they get to 30. that's hardly on anybody's resume, much less 50 people. and it's not like he doesn't have basically 4 other amazing playoff series already under his belt to make us realize it's not a fluke.

if luka goes on to have 10 more seasons just like 2022 (or very similar), he's going to be a top 20 player all time at minimum. and if the mavs put a good team around him, there's no reason he doesn't turn a WCF into a few titles, at which point he'll be getting plenty of top 10 talk, but still with a fringe top 50 peak since none of the seasons were better than this one? seems pretty unlikely. just people not wanting to recognize someone on a peaks list early in their career, but this is a pretty extreme example i would say.

Not to mention that his scoring, although very good, is not on another level to the other players left. I mean, Doncic has a massive volume but he's not that efficient. If we compare him to the best scorers left, I don't see the clear separation:

2022 Doncic: 30.3 pp75 on +0.5 rTS% in RS, 33.5 pp75 on +3.0 rTS% in PS

1995 Miller: 24.2 pp75 on +7.7 rTS% in RS, 29.1 pp75 on +10.5 rTS% in PS
1979 Gervin: 28.4 pp75 on +6.6 rTS% in RS, 29.0 pp75 on +7.7 rTS% in PS
1956 Arizin: 25.7 pp75 on +6.8 rTS% in RS, 28.3 pp75 on +7.1 rTS% in PS
1984 Dantley: 28.4 pp75 on +10.9 rTS% in RS, 28.0 pp75 on +4.0 rTS% in PS
1984 King: 28.2 pp75 on +7.6 rTS% in RS, 33.0 pp75 on +8.8 rTS% in PS
1975 McAdoo: 30.9 pp75 on +6.7 rTS% in RS, 33.0 pp75 on +5.2 rTS% in PS

Now, Doncic is better than most of these players on offense because of his playmaking abilities, but talking about his scoring as the reason why he's a lock top 50 is a stretch to me.

well yes, his unbelievable creation on top of unbelievable scoring volume is sort of the point though. no one else in this range is particularly close. and anyone who is even remotely close certainly isn't a lockdown defender. luka's a one man offense who hasn't been stoppable in the playoffs for 3 straight years. his playoff 33 pp75 career average matches king's career high and is actually slightly ahead of MJ's career mark. while being one of the best passer's ever. while giving very good clippers teams everything they wanted. while punking a 64 win team with a 33/10/7 series (who else on the list has a series like this?). sometimes we have to take the 30,000 foot view instead of trying to figure out if this xxxPM or that yyyPM stat says something happened. there aren't 50 players who have had that game 7. or that series. or those playoffs.

and i didn't say his scoring is why he's a top 50 lock. i pointed to an amazing series he had and then additionally pointed out that he was within a whisper of MJ's playoff scoring average, which is famously a country mile ahead of everyone else in history, so if someone is within a whisper, they must be pretty amazing. it seems clear from nba history that scoring quantity has a quality of its own. part of this is because it's not really the TS% above average that's important, it's probably more like the TS% above replacement that's important (because the possessions by the best players are more likely to be replacing very bad possessions in a playoff setting as opposed to a regular season setting), which tends to slightly nerf the crazy TSAdd advantage of a +10 to +3 (miller to doncic) when it's probably more like a +17 to +10 (or whatever one thinks replacement TS% is). it's how kobe can lead the 2008-2010 lakers without being ultra efficient. how hakeem and duncan with mediocre offensive teammates could take up tons of offensive possessions for teams that won the title without having amazing TS%'s. how even someone i don't like in allen iverson could trip and fall into a finals in a weak east, because the quantity still mattered a lot even if the efficiency was bad.

That theory would be a lot more sound if we did not have a pretty fair sample of Dallas being fine (not good, but fine) outside of Luka.

Like you are not making any real argument here, you are yet again pointing only to the box score totals and going, “I mean, come on.” Bernard King took the 1984 Celtics to seven games. Bob McAdoo took a 60-win Bullets squad to seven games. Reggie Miller took the 1998 Bulls to seven game and outscored the 2000 Lakers over the course of the Finals (and has longevity and a top career). Drexler made the Finals twice and then won as a strong sidekick (and has longevity and a top career). Rick Barry swept that aforementioned 60-win Bullets team to win a title (and has longevity and a top career). And Nate Thurmond, Dave Cowens, and Jimmy Butler all straight up have more impressive upsets than Luka — Thurmond without any notably strong team support — even before we look at how you specifically have repeatedly railed against Chris Paul in the postseason.

All you have really done with this line of reasoning is make me less confident in my own vote for Luka.