Packers News, Trade Ideas, Transactions - 2023 Off Season

[ReasonablySober]

So I think this is a tough as hell situation if I have this right.

-We have to decide on the $20 million 5th year option on Love in a few months, right?
-But Rodgers is almost impossible to deal, he probably won't retire, either way he's going to cost like $50-90 million to not be on the team next year
-I think he's playing like **** - but I don't know if he's 100% washed. If you bench him to tank/try out Love, you are killing any trade value and it would be almost impossible to try one last last ride in 2023 and get some guys healthy.
-If Love does play, it's going to be hard as hell to evaluate him with minimal offensive talent.

I may not have the details correct, somebody can help me out there. We are basically committed to way too much at QB in 2023-2024 to do anything.

Love is still cheap in 2023. My guess is they turn down the 5th year option and/or try and work out an extension that reduces the cap hit in 2024 but gives them outs if they decide he isn't the guy.

If they don't want Rodgers next season they have to hope he retires or another team wants him via trade. A trade before June 1st means a $40 million cap hit. After June 1st means a $15 million cap hit next year and $25 in '24.

Makes sense.

I thought retiring costs them like $70 million on the cap next year.

I don't see 12 retiring with how much he is motivated by money, though. Unless he gets a TV deal that pays him almost as much or something and he decides he's done enough.

I don't see him retiring either, though that would simplify things a bit. Take the big $40 cap hit (seems unlikely unless the whole roster is gutted), or go $15/$25 the next two years.

The only thing that absolutely won't happen is Rodgers getting cut. Those cap hits would be impossible to handle.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Doesn't the high amount of guaranteed money and structure with roster bonuses make it a little tricky to trade Rodgers? Would be a big number for the other team to take on and likely limit what they would get back in compensation.

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[Kerb Hohl]

Love is still cheap in 2023. My guess is they turn down the 5th year option and/or try and work out an extension that reduces the cap hit in 2024 but gives them outs if they decide he isn't the guy.

If they don't want Rodgers next season they have to hope he retires or another team wants him via trade. A trade before June 1st means a $40 million cap hit. After June 1st means a $15 million cap hit next year and $25 in '24.

Makes sense.

I thought retiring costs them like $70 million on the cap next year.

I don't see 12 retiring with how much he is motivated by money, though. Unless he gets a TV deal that pays him almost as much or something and he decides he's done enough.

I don't see him retiring either, though that would simplify things a bit. Take the big $40 cap hit (seems unlikely unless the whole roster is gutted), or go $15/$25 the next two years.

The only thing that absolutely won't happen is Rodgers getting cut. Those cap hits would be impossible to handle.

Ah, yeah, I had it backwards. If he somehow stays for 2-3 more years, then it's $70+ million of a hit for him to retire.

Feels like that may make it harder to trade him.

[ReasonablySober]

Doesn't the high amount of guaranteed money and structure with roster bonuses make it a little tricky to trade Rodgers? Would be a big number for the other team to take on and likely limit what they would get back in compensation.

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If the team taking him on exercises an option in Rodgers' contract they would have a $15 million cap hit in '23, so that's manageable. Number goes up huge the longer he plays.

[RRyder823]

So I think this is a tough as hell situation if I have this right.

-We have to decide on the $20 million 5th year option on Love in a few months, right?
-But Rodgers is almost impossible to deal, he probably won't retire, either way he's going to cost like $50-90 million to not be on the team next year
-I think he's playing like **** - but I don't know if he's 100% washed. If you bench him to tank/try out Love, you are killing any trade value and it would be almost impossible to try one last last ride in 2023 and get some guys healthy.
-If Love does play, it's going to be hard as hell to evaluate him with minimal offensive talent.

I may not have the details correct, somebody can help me out there. We are basically committed to way too much at QB in 2023-2024 to do anything.

Love is still cheap in 2023. My guess is they turn down the 5th year option and/or try and work out an extension that reduces the cap hit in 2024 but gives them outs if they decide he isn't the guy.

If they don't want Rodgers next season they have to hope he retires or another team wants him via trade. A trade before June 1st means a $40 million cap hit. After June 1st means a $15 million cap hit next year and $25 in '24.

I think the bigger implication on pre June 1st versus after is whether they'd be inclined to wait an additional year before the get to use the assets gained from a trade since that's obviously after the draft.

It's adds "I think" 9 million to next year's cap to trade him before the draft but that increase could be slightly offset by trading or releasing Bahk. I mean we're still talking like 60+ million in dead cap for next season on two players not on the team but it might be better to take the hit next year and get the picks right away then spreading out the hit over 2 and waiting a year for the assets

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[ReasonablySober]

So I think this is a tough as hell situation if I have this right.

-We have to decide on the $20 million 5th year option on Love in a few months, right?
-But Rodgers is almost impossible to deal, he probably won't retire, either way he's going to cost like $50-90 million to not be on the team next year
-I think he's playing like **** - but I don't know if he's 100% washed. If you bench him to tank/try out Love, you are killing any trade value and it would be almost impossible to try one last last ride in 2023 and get some guys healthy.
-If Love does play, it's going to be hard as hell to evaluate him with minimal offensive talent.

I may not have the details correct, somebody can help me out there. We are basically committed to way too much at QB in 2023-2024 to do anything.

Love is still cheap in 2023. My guess is they turn down the 5th year option and/or try and work out an extension that reduces the cap hit in 2024 but gives them outs if they decide he isn't the guy.

If they don't want Rodgers next season they have to hope he retires or another team wants him via trade. A trade before June 1st means a $40 million cap hit. After June 1st means a $15 million cap hit next year and $25 in '24.

I think the bigger implication on pre June 1st versus after is whether they'd be inclined to wait an additional year before the get to use the assets gained from a trade since that's obviously after the draft.

It's adds "I think" 9 million to next year's cap to trade him before the draft but that increase could be slightly offset by trading or releasing Bahk. I mean we're still talking like 60+ million in dead cap for next season on two players not on the team but it might be better to take the hit next year and get the picks right away then spreading out the hit over 2 and waiting a year for the assets

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Bahk is actually a relatively simple one since he's only owed salary. Cutting him saves $6 million without any dead money going forward.

As for Rodgers, trading him before the draft counts $40 million against the cap, but there's nothing to add in '24. I think it would be tough to make that work. You'd basically be adding $25 million in dead cap space that you could instead defer to '24. I think obviously we'd all like to get it over in one offseason, but finding that space is a challenge. Like I said yesterday, that Savage 5th year option is a killer. Packers could be free and clear of him but instead are locked into giving him $7+ million with only a trade as an option to clear his space. Chances are you'd have to attach a draft pick to do so. Not impossible, but it's unfortunate.

Waiting until June 2nd and cutting Smith and Bak opens up $28 million in space. Jones on June 2nd opens up $16 million more. Those three moves right there would make cutting Rodgers loose a lot easier.

[Kerb Hohl]

I know there's other stuff like getting in sync with LaFleur, hating McCarthy, etc. - but you can really follow the money with Rodgers' performance.

He seems to suck most in the years he's getting a huge payday/frontloaded contract. His accuracy was curiously awful in 2018/2019 while he was sitting on a frontloaded contract. Then it was time for a new deal so he turned it on for 2 MVPs. Even better, the Packers were holding the cards going into 2021 so he threw his offseason drama in to get more up front cash in 2021 and wrote himself a new contract in 2022 with a great 2021.

This has been my tinfoil hat moment.

[ReasonablySober]

Sounds like Stokes also may have a serious injury.

[VooDoo7]

Doubs out 4-6 weeks. Just cancel the season already. The Gary news is such a gut-punch. Pray he can come back from this with no issues.

[mke_design]

Doubs out 4-6 weeks. Just cancel the season already. The Gary news is such a gut-punch. Pray he can come back from this with no issues.

maybe he can set the edge instead of being clay matthews'd out of plays after the injury?

[Wisky4life]

1.) Trade Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Preston Smith, Bakhtiari for all the picks.

2.) Let Lazard, Watkins, Elgin Jenkins, Lowry walk.

3.) Resign Tonyan, Nijman, Amos and maybe a few other low guys.

4.) Decide on Rashan Gary??? I'm mixed.

5.) Draft a QB, WR, RB in 1st 2-3 Rounds.

I might be tempted for a fast full reload. We don't really lose as much as you think and can build a team around Love and the defense I guess?

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[stillgotgame]

Doesn't the high amount of guaranteed money and structure with roster bonuses make it a little tricky to trade Rodgers? Would be a big number for the other team to take on and likely limit what they would get back in compensation.

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If the team taking him on exercises an option in Rodgers' contract they would have a $15 million cap hit in '23, so that's manageable. Number goes up huge the longer he plays.

Where did you get this number from? Rodgers is guaranteed his bonus next year of $58.3 M. Then if he's playing the next year he gets another $40M bonus.
We're going to amortize that $58.3M over 4 years, so maybe you think that portion is only his cap hit?

Rodger's is only tradable to a team that will eat over $100M for the next 2 years. Or he's tradable if he reworks his contract, and gives up guaranteed money. He has Gute by the balls.

[ReasonablySober]

Doesn't the high amount of guaranteed money and structure with roster bonuses make it a little tricky to trade Rodgers? Would be a big number for the other team to take on and likely limit what they would get back in compensation.

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If the team taking him on exercises an option in Rodgers' contract they would have a $15 million cap hit in '23, so that's manageable. Number goes up huge the longer he plays.

Where did you get this number from? Rodgers is guaranteed his bonus next year of $58.3 M. Then if he's playing the next year he gets another $40M bonus.
We're going to amortize that $58.3M over 4 years, so maybe you think that portion is only his cap hit?

Rodger's is only tradable to a team that will eat over $100M for the next 2 years. Or he's tradable if he reworks his contract, and gives up guaranteed money. He has Gute by the balls.

Here.

Rodgers currently has a salary cap charge of $31.6 million in 2023. $59.465 million of his $59.515 million salary for the year is already guaranteed. The Packers have the option to pay that salary out as a $58.3 million option bonus and a $1.165 million salary in order to drive his cap charge to the $31.6 million figure. The timing of the option works in the Packers favor for both trades and/or potential retirement as the official option decision does not have to happen until the start of the 2023 regular season.

What Happens in Aaron Rodgers Retires?

If Rodgers were to walk away he would forfeit all his rights to the $59.465 million in guaranteed salary for next year. In order to best accommodate the hit on the salary cap my assumption would be that the Packers and Rodgers would sign a new contract where the option bonus was eliminated and just a $1.165 salary remained. That would reduce Rodgers salary cap charge to $16,998,750 and they would carry him on the roster as a procedural move until June 2nd. At that point they would put him on the retired list. The salary cap charge in that case would be $15,833,570 in 2023 and $24,480,000 in 2024.

If they did not do that and processed the retirement right away they would take a salary cap hit of $40,313,570 in 2023 but none in 2024. The Packers have no cap space next year so it would seem more likely that they take the first approach.

What Happens if the Packers Trade Aaron Rodgers?

Rodgers does not have a no trade clause in his contract so he could be traded to a team as well. The timing of the option should give the Packers all the way until the end of training camp to move him. The cap charge here would depend on when he was traded. If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. This assumes that the Packers did not exercise the option before the trade. If the option is exercised then the trade number spikes to nearly $100 million. There should be no need to exercise the option until the last possible day.

For the team acquiring Rodgers they would be on the hook for the salary for the year. The cap charge would be $59,515,000 if they do not exercise his option and $15.79 million if they were to exercise the option. Rodgers has an injury guarantee of $49.25 million for 2024 but that does not become fully guaranteed until 5 days after the 2023 Super Bowl. If Rodgers was cut after 2023 it would cost the team $43.725 million on the 2024 cap. If he retired they could split that as $14.575 million in 2024 and $29.15 million in 2025 using a similar June 2nd date as mentioned above in the retirement option.

[Ayt]

Is this the most disappointing season in decades? I'm struggling to think of a season with expectations as high as they were for this team where the team has played this poorly and it isn't due to key injuries. They clearly got hit with injuries this week, but the team was terrible even before this game.

[stillgotgame]

If the team taking him on exercises an option in Rodgers' contract they would have a $15 million cap hit in '23, so that's manageable. Number goes up huge the longer he plays.

Where did you get this number from? Rodgers is guaranteed his bonus next year of $58.3 M. Then if he's playing the next year he gets another $40M bonus.
We're going to amortize that $58.3M over 4 years, so maybe you think that portion is only his cap hit?

Rodger's is only tradable to a team that will eat over $100M for the next 2 years. Or he's tradable if he reworks his contract, and gives up guaranteed money. He has Gute by the balls.

Here.

Rodgers currently has a salary cap charge of $31.6 million in 2023. $59.465 million of his $59.515 million salary for the year is already guaranteed. The Packers have the option to pay that salary out as a $58.3 million option bonus and a $1.165 million salary in order to drive his cap charge to the $31.6 million figure. The timing of the option works in the Packers favor for both trades and/or potential retirement as the official option decision does not have to happen until the start of the 2023 regular season.

What Happens in Aaron Rodgers Retires?

If Rodgers were to walk away he would forfeit all his rights to the $59.465 million in guaranteed salary for next year. In order to best accommodate the hit on the salary cap my assumption would be that the Packers and Rodgers would sign a new contract where the option bonus was eliminated and just a $1.165 salary remained. That would reduce Rodgers salary cap charge to $16,998,750 and they would carry him on the roster as a procedural move until June 2nd. At that point they would put him on the retired list. The salary cap charge in that case would be $15,833,570 in 2023 and $24,480,000 in 2024.

If they did not do that and processed the retirement right away they would take a salary cap hit of $40,313,570 in 2023 but none in 2024. The Packers have no cap space next year so it would seem more likely that they take the first approach.

What Happens if the Packers Trade Aaron Rodgers?

Rodgers does not have a no trade clause in his contract so he could be traded to a team as well. The timing of the option should give the Packers all the way until the end of training camp to move him. The cap charge here would depend on when he was traded. If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. This assumes that the Packers did not exercise the option before the trade. If the option is exercised then the trade number spikes to nearly $100 million. There should be no need to exercise the option until the last possible day.

For the team acquiring Rodgers they would be on the hook for the salary for the year. The cap charge would be $59,515,000 if they do not exercise his option and $15.79 million if they were to exercise the option. Rodgers has an injury guarantee of $49.25 million for 2024 but that does not become fully guaranteed until 5 days after the 2023 Super Bowl. If Rodgers was cut after 2023 it would cost the team $43.725 million on the 2024 cap. If he retired they could split that as $14.575 million in 2024 and $29.15 million in 2025 using a similar June 2nd date as mentioned above in the retirement option.

The team taking him has to eat $59M for next year, whether it’s spread out or not. Who would do that for a 40 year old QB?

Best case we could pay $20M or so of next year’s money. We’d have $60M of cap to eat.
Maybe get a 4th or 5th back for him to show we got something.

[ReasonablySober]

The team taking him has to eat $59M for next year, whether it’s spread out or not. Who would do that for a 40 year old QB?

Best case we could pay $20M or so of next year’s money. We’d have $60M of cap to eat.
Maybe get a 4th or 5th back for him to show we got something.

You may want to re-read that one.

A team acquiring Rodgers via trade is only going to have a cap charge of $15.8 million next season. That number could be reduced even further if they want to restructure or extend his deal. The Packers would be on the hook for $40.3 million, either all at once or $15/$25 in '23 and '24.

Here's another cap guru on what a trade or retirement would look like if he's done here after '22:

Read on Twitter

[stillgotgame]

The team taking him has to eat $59M for next year, whether it’s spread out or not. Who would do that for a 40 year old QB?

Best case we could pay $20M or so of next year’s money. We’d have $60M of cap to eat.
Maybe get a 4th or 5th back for him to show we got something.

You may want to re-read that one.

A team acquiring Rodgers via trade is only going to have a cap charge of $15.8 million next season. That number could be reduced even further if they want to restructure or extend his deal. The Packers would be on the hook for $40.3 million, either all at once or $15/$25 in '23 and '24.

Here's another cap guru on what a trade or retirement would look like if he's done here after '22:

Read on Twitter

He's almost as clueless as this board.

Let's be clear I want Rodgers gone. I didn't think we should resign him. I want us to see what we have in Love and rebuild.

But his contract is very clever. He's guaranteed $59M next year. How the team we trade him to splits it up is up to them. But keep in mind this is not a signing bonus that can be clawed back if he retires. So the team is on the hook for $59M no matter how long he plays.
If he stays another year he gets another $45M. It's also treated like a roster bonus so no getting any of it back if he retires. So after2 years Rodgers gets $104M plus min salary, about $108M for 2 years.

Who would pay $59M for 1 year of Rodgers or $108M for 2 years? No one. This isn'ta 33 year old QB where you can spread that money out over 5 years. It will come due in a hurry.

[ReasonablySober]

He's almost as clueless as this board.

Let's be clear I want Rodgers gone. I didn't think we should resign him. I want us to see what we have in Love and rebuild.

But his contract is very clever. He's guaranteed $59M next year. How the team we trade him to splits it up is up to them. But keep in mind this is not a signing bonus that can be clawed back if he retires. So the team is on the hook for $59M no matter how long he plays.
If he stays another year he gets another $45M. It's also treated like a roster bonus so no getting any of it back if he retires. So after2 years Rodgers gets $104M plus min salary, about $108M for 2 years.

Who would pay $59M for 1 year of Rodgers or $108M for 2 years? No one. This isn'ta 33 year old QB where you can spread that money out over 5 years. It will come due in a hurry.

I'm glad that we alone have such a valuable cap guy around here, as opposed to this agent:

The Packers will have significant dead money if Rodgers decides to retire after the 2022 season because of the roster bonus proration. The option bonus proration would come off Green Bay's books so there wouldn't be any cap charges associated with the option bonuses. Green Bay would have $40,313,570 of dead money consisting of $32.64 million of roster bonus proration and the $7,673,570 of 2023 bonus proration that already existed before the new deal. The dead money would be the same with a trade before exercising the option for the 2025 contract year, except the option bonuses would become the financial and cap responsibilities of the acquiring team.

Trading Rodgers in 2024 wouldn't be feasible. There would be $68.205 million of dead money by dealing Rodgers before the second option is exercised. In this case, the bonus proration from the first option in 2023 would be part of Green Bay's dead money. With a trade occurring before the option for 2026 is exercised, the acquiring team would have financial and cap responsibilities for the second option bonus.

7. There's a wide window to exercise the options. It starts on the first day of that respective league year and closes on the day before the first game of that regular season. Ordinarily, the window to pick up options is anywhere from five to 10 days at the beginning of a league year. For example, Buffalo has a five-day window beginning on the first day of the 2022 league year to exercise an option for Allen's 2028 contract year, which requires a $42.4 million payment. The extended window provides Green Bay with more flexibility in case Rodgers retires or a trade is explored. Rodgers doesn't have a no-trade clause in his contract.

or the guy here:

When the Packers gave Rodgers a 3-year, $150 million extension in the offseason, the contract promised security for both sides. The quarterback had a lot of guaranteed money, and Green Bay had the flexibility to keep Rodgers or even trade him in the future.

Rodgers’ cap hit in 2023 is projected to be $31.6 million. If he is traded before June, the dead money would be $40.3 million, which is not a big difference. It’s undoubtedly one the Packers would be willing to swallow if they rebuild. The move would free up $40.7 million of cap space in 2024, $59.3 million in 2025, and $53.4 million in 2026.

Rodgers will have value on the trade market. Even if it’s not as high as it would have been last offseason, he is still a good quarterback with an absurd ceiling. He can be great again with the proper surroundings.

Rodgers’ cap hit for an acquiring team in 2023 would be just $15.8 million. It may be even less if the team opts to restructure his deal and move some money to the future. That would allow the Packers to get a good value in return, maybe first- and fourth-round picks, or even more if the competition gets hot.

Or the guy on Over the Cap, or the guy whose single Twitter identity is being an expert on the Packers cap.

Thanks.

[stillgotgame]

He's almost as clueless as this board.

Let's be clear I want Rodgers gone. I didn't think we should resign him. I want us to see what we have in Love and rebuild.

But his contract is very clever. He's guaranteed $59M next year. How the team we trade him to splits it up is up to them. But keep in mind this is not a signing bonus that can be clawed back if he retires. So the team is on the hook for $59M no matter how long he plays.
If he stays another year he gets another $45M. It's also treated like a roster bonus so no getting any of it back if he retires. So after2 years Rodgers gets $104M plus min salary, about $108M for 2 years.

Who would pay $59M for 1 year of Rodgers or $108M for 2 years? No one. This isn'ta 33 year old QB where you can spread that money out over 5 years. It will come due in a hurry.

I'm glad that we alone have such a valuable cap guy around here, as opposed to this agent:

The Packers will have significant dead money if Rodgers decides to retire after the 2022 season because of the roster bonus proration. The option bonus proration would come off Green Bay's books so there wouldn't be any cap charges associated with the option bonuses. Green Bay would have $40,313,570 of dead money consisting of $32.64 million of roster bonus proration and the $7,673,570 of 2023 bonus proration that already existed before the new deal. The dead money would be the same with a trade before exercising the option for the 2025 contract year, except the option bonuses would become the financial and cap responsibilities of the acquiring team.

Trading Rodgers in 2024 wouldn't be feasible. There would be $68.205 million of dead money by dealing Rodgers before the second option is exercised. In this case, the bonus proration from the first option in 2023 would be part of Green Bay's dead money. With a trade occurring before the option for 2026 is exercised, the acquiring team would have financial and cap responsibilities for the second option bonus.

7. There's a wide window to exercise the options. It starts on the first day of that respective league year and closes on the day before the first game of that regular season. Ordinarily, the window to pick up options is anywhere from five to 10 days at the beginning of a league year. For example, Buffalo has a five-day window beginning on the first day of the 2022 league year to exercise an option for Allen's 2028 contract year, which requires a $42.4 million payment. The extended window provides Green Bay with more flexibility in case Rodgers retires or a trade is explored. Rodgers doesn't have a no-trade clause in his contract.

or the guy here:

When the Packers gave Rodgers a 3-year, $150 million extension in the offseason, the contract promised security for both sides. The quarterback had a lot of guaranteed money, and Green Bay had the flexibility to keep Rodgers or even trade him in the future.

Rodgers’ cap hit in 2023 is projected to be $31.6 million. If he is traded before June, the dead money would be $40.3 million, which is not a big difference. It’s undoubtedly one the Packers would be willing to swallow if they rebuild. The move would free up $40.7 million of cap space in 2024, $59.3 million in 2025, and $53.4 million in 2026.

Rodgers will have value on the trade market. Even if it’s not as high as it would have been last offseason, he is still a good quarterback with an absurd ceiling. He can be great again with the proper surroundings.

Rodgers’ cap hit for an acquiring team in 2023 would be just $15.8 million. It may be even less if the team opts to restructure his deal and move some money to the future. That would allow the Packers to get a good value in return, maybe first- and fourth-round picks, or even more if the competition gets hot.

Or the guy on Over the Cap, or the guy whose single Twitter identity is being an expert on the Packers cap.

Thanks.

Key statement in bold. The team that takes him owes him $59M for 1 year or $108M for 2.

The second guy is dreaming. Unless someone like Irsay wants to give him the money over multiple years I don't see any team dumb enough to pay him this money. Hopefully I'm wrong, but for now this board appears delusional.

[ReasonablySober]

Is this (spotrac) where you're getting the impression that he's got a $59 million cap hit in '23?

023 Option Bonus (to exercise the 2025 compensation): $58.3M (guaranteed)

Because that's not how cap hits work.