Fun with Stats!!!

Braggins · Post #781 » by **Braggins** » Tue Feb 8, 2022 9:59 pm

I don't know if I'd say Oubre is in a slump. Hes a career 33% 3pt shooter over 7 seasons and his best season so far has been 35.2%. Hes at 35.8% for this season right now after being on an unprecedented hot streak for much of the year.

Post #782 » by **yosemiteben** » Tue Feb 8, 2022 10:15 pm

Braggins wrote:I don't know if I'd say Oubre is in a slump. Hes a career 33% 3pt shooter over 7 seasons and his best season so far has been 35.2%. Hes at 35.8% for this season right now after being on an unprecedented hot streak for much of the year.

I mean, let's break it out by month:

Oct - 39.6%
Nov - 35.2%
Dec - 36.5%
Jan - 38.8%
Feb - 16.2%

To me that's a slump.

HornetJail · Post #783 » by **HornetJail** » Tue Feb 8, 2022 10:58 pm

The slump is really just the last 10 games he's played. He's right on his season averages in counting stats (16.6ppg, 4.9rpg) but doing it on 38/25.8/75.7 shooting splits including an insane 9.3 3PA per game. That includes the Indy game where he hit 10/15 from deep. Without that game, he's shooting 17% lol

He's in a slump, and like he's done basically every season, he will come out of it.

Post #784 » by **fatlever** » Tue Feb 8, 2022 11:58 pm

miles bridges 31% on season, 28% in last 15. maybe this is just who he really is as a shooter.

Post #785 » by **fatlever** » Tue Feb 8, 2022 11:59 pm

melo 29% over last 15 games

Post #786 » by **fatlever** » Wed Feb 9, 2022 12:00 am

its something deeper than just a 15 game slump

Post #787 » by **Diop** » Wed Feb 9, 2022 12:05 am

fatlever wrote:miles bridges 31% on season, 28% in last 15. maybe this is just who he really is as a shooter.

i'm leaning towards this for Miles, i don't have a huge amount of confidence in his 3 point shot but its enough to keep the defence honest so he can drive.

balls shooting has always made me nervous, but he has proved me wrong till now, so im hoping he will come out of it

Braggins · Post #788 » by **Braggins** » Wed Feb 9, 2022 12:12 am

KEMBAtheMETEOR wrote:The slump is really just the last 10 games he's played. He's right on his season averages in counting stats (16.6ppg, 4.9rpg) but doing it on 38/25.8/75.7 shooting splits including an insane 9.3 3PA per game. That includes the Indy game where he hit 10/15 from deep. Without that game, he's shooting 17% lol

He's in a slump, and like he's done basically every season, he will come out of it.

His 3pt% right now this season is higher than its been for any season of his career. This slump is him reverting back to the mean. The first four months of this season he has had some of the hottest stretches of his career, but I don't think its likely that will be the norm for him going forward, although its not impossible for guys to have late career jumps in efficiency (I personally doubt it with him). I think hes a net negative player even when hes shooting decent and stats back it up, so I still wouldn't be a fan if you could guarantee he shoots 36%-38% going forward tbh.

He was able to really milk the hot streak this season because he has no IQ/discretion and just looks to chuck a shot anytime someone passes him the ball, but if he cools off he just keeps chucking bad shots like hes been doing his entire career and you get results like this recent stretch, which aren't exactly uncommon for him.

Braggins · Post #789 » by **Braggins** » Wed Feb 9, 2022 12:17 am

Fyi, Malik Monk, the completely unreliable and wildly inconsistent degenerate drug addict who can't shoot and punches a puppy every morning, is shooting over 40% from 3pt again this season and is 195/481 from 3pt over the last two seasons.

Post #790 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Feb 9, 2022 1:11 am

Braggins wrote:Fyi, Malik Monk, the completely unreliable and wildly inconsistent degenerate drug addict who can't shoot and punches a puppy every morning, is shooting over 40% from 3pt again this season and is 195/481 from 3pt over the last two seasons.

Guess he's waiting to shoot 15% that won't be a slump too

Braggins · Post #791 » by **Braggins** » Wed Feb 9, 2022 1:22 am

yosemiteben wrote:
Braggins wrote:Fyi, Malik Monk, the completely unreliable and wildly inconsistent degenerate drug addict who can't shoot and punches a puppy every morning, is shooting over 40% from 3pt again this season and is 195/481 from 3pt over the last two seasons.

Guess he's waiting to shoot 15% that won't be a slump too

I referred to it as a slump in my previous post and explained myself better. My point was more just that stretches like this aren't uncommon for him and hes probably just reverting back to the mean and still isn't a very good shooter.

Post #792 » by **JDR720** » Wed Feb 9, 2022 1:48 am

Oubre is an average shooter. Not nearly as bad as he has been recently, but he can't be your best 3pt shooter either. He's one of those JR Smith-like microwave shooters. Either hot or cold.

Miles is average too. Last season seems to have been false hope. 87% FT and 40% 3pt? He's down 8% or so for them both this year.

Ball is the one in a real slump. Although he's done well in February so far. He shot 29% in January. This seems to be a pattern too.

October - 41%
November - 36%
December - 43%
January - 29%
Febuary - 36%

He alternates between good and bad months.

Post #793 » by **fatlever** » Mon Nov 7, 2022 10:13 pm

some #s after 10 games

net rating = 25, off = 27, def = 13
pace = 9
reb% = 21, off = 13, def = 21
true shooting/efg% = 26
ast% = 6
turn% = 18
fast break pts/100 = 20, opp = 1 (low is better)
points in paint/100 = 21, opp = 21 (low is better)
ft rate = 18, opp = 12

individual advanced stuff a bit too early, but one trend has been very clear - our starters(whoever they have been) have been terrible, our bench has been solid
the trio of PJ, oubre and mason (the guys who have started every game) are -25.1 net rtg in 157 minutes. cliff says he typically evaluates playing groups after each 1/4 season. curious to see if he makes changes, or if the inclusions of terry, melo, return of gh reset the counter. pretty much any lineup with mason is getting crushed.

Post #794 » by **fatlever** » Wed Nov 9, 2022 5:46 pm

Read on Twitter

?t=UmfYIPtLvLrTY8K0XIv9Pw&s=19

In other words... DONT CLOSE GAMES WITH MASON!!!

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SWedd523 · Post #795 » by **SWedd523** » Wed Nov 9, 2022 6:00 pm

I do agree it's puzzling that Cliff decides to close with Mason over Richards at this point

Post #796 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Nov 9, 2022 7:23 pm

Wait is that right that literally no lineup combination that doesn't include both Nic and DSJ is better than -9 in net rating? That's crazy.

Post #797 » by **fatlever** » Wed Nov 9, 2022 7:45 pm

yosemiteben wrote:Wait is that right that literally no lineup combination that doesn't include both Nic and DSJ is better than -9 in net rating? That's crazy.

Any lineup with the 3 of Mason oubre and pj has been horrendous.

We have the worst on off for any starting 5 in the league, regardless of our 5 starters.

Since you gotta keep pj and oubre for offense then we need to add nick or Jalen to try something different. Either close with Nick at 5 or small with pj at 5, mcd at 4.

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HornetJail · Post #798 » by **HornetJail** » Wed Nov 9, 2022 7:53 pm

The common denominator is Plumlee. He simply can't play if we're trying to win anything.

Post #799 » by **luciano-davidwesley** » Wed Nov 9, 2022 9:43 pm

KEMBAtheMETEOR wrote:The common denominator is Plumlee. He simply can't play if we're trying to win anything.

Not only that but he takes away minutes and development time from young players that have a significantly higher potential career trajectory than him.

Braggins · Post #800 » by **Braggins** » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:44 pm

They have the 3rd worse record and 5th worse point differential so far. This season is about as perfect of a mini tank situation as you could imagine and they are going to blow it chasing 40 wins and a moral victory.