2022-2023 Regular Season Game 13: Phoenix Suns (8-3) at Orlando Magic (3-9) - 7pm

[SOUL]

I think it's par for the course the last few years whenever any player was out. Vuc, Fultz, Isaac, "We're better!" and then we would lose regardless because not having talent always makes you a worse team.

I think there can actually be nuance around this conversation without chalking it all up to a poster simply pushing an agenda or making statements without statistical backing.

On one end, I agree with you. Chuma did not play well to start the season and having more talent in the rotation can't necessarily hurt us. But, I think it's a hard argument to make right now that Paolo is contributing to winning.

We currently have 4 players with a positive net rating this year. Bol Bol (3.7), Franz (2.8), Suggs (1.2), and WCJ (0.7). The only starter without a positive rating right now is Paolo, who sits at 6th in the rotation with a -3.7. He also leads the team in minutes and is going to be on the court more than a Chuma who currently averages 20 mpg. He is also commanding a damn near 30% usage rating when he is on the court and ranks 9th on the team in offensive net rating.

Right now our best player and the only one I can confidently say significantly impacts winning is Franz Wagner. The numbers all back that up and he is our best offensive player. I would not go as far to say that we would have lost these games with Banchero playing, but I think the stats and numbers he's put up thus far can fool people a bit in terms of his actual impact.

But he's a rookie with less than 15 games under his belt. It's going to take time.

A lot of small sample size things just don't matter right now though. For instance, RAPTOR has him as 2nd or 3rd highest, where his defense is actually rated better than his offense. So it could be specific things that make him valuable and other things that aren't translating as winning plays on the court yet.

Correlation doesn't always imply causation, etc. If our bench plays better in half of these games, we win some. If Franz/Paolo hits clutch shots in a few games, we win some, and that's with Franz being our best player, so that is all things that affect W-L regardless of if Banchero was playing or not. In most games he's kept us in it too.

There are obviously things that Paolo will improve upon just by learning the game, but people implying we're losing games because of him aren't serious about nuanced discussion (not saying that's you).

[The-Stallion70]

I think it's par for the course the last few years whenever any player was out. Vuc, Fultz, Isaac, "We're better!" and then we would lose regardless because not having talent always makes you a worse team.

I think there can actually be nuance around this conversation without chalking it all up to a poster simply pushing an agenda or making statements without statistical backing.

On one end, I agree with you. Chuma did not play well to start the season and having more talent in the rotation can't necessarily hurt us. But, I think it's a hard argument to make right now that Paolo is contributing to winning.

We currently have 4 players with a positive net rating this year. Bol Bol (3.7), Franz (2.8), Suggs (1.2), and WCJ (0.7). The only starter without a positive rating right now is Paolo, who sits at 6th in the rotation with a -3.7. He also leads the team in minutes and is going to be on the court more than a Chuma who currently averages 20 mpg. He is also commanding a damn near 30% usage rating when he is on the court and ranks 9th on the team in offensive net rating.

Right now our best player and the only one I can confidently say significantly impacts winning is Franz Wagner. The numbers all back that up and he is our best offensive player. I would not go as far to say that we would have lost these games with Banchero playing, but I think the stats and numbers he's put up thus far can fool people a bit in terms of his actual impact.

But he's a rookie with less than 15 games under his belt. It's going to take time.

I'm not 100% sure how they come up with this net rating statistic, but I would be much more concerned with Paolo's 30% usage if he wasn't converting at a league average 56% ts% and 20th in the entire league in isolation scoring.

Last year I was genuinely concerned about Suggs because of his horrendous .455 ts% and 18.7 turnover rate at his 25.3 usage percentage which was second behind Fultz who played 18 games.

Cole Anthony wasn't much better when he posted a .519 ts% at 25.1 usage. I was often asking myself why Cole Anthony and Suggs were using more possessions than Franz and Wendell even though Franz and Wendell were more efficient.

Because the sample size is so low right now I am not really concerned about the record with or without Paolo.

[drsd]

I am just going to say it…. All this better without Paolo talk is stupid and disappointing..

I strongly disagree. Starting a rookie inevitably leads to loses. The point for me is that Banchero must get through his 20-games of "learning" to help the team win games in a sustainable fashion.

Would Orlando have lost the last two games if Mr. air-tight defender Okeke had not started - noting that Dončić and Booker had horrible games with Okeke on them, yes losses in both games is probable.

But glass half full: Orlando won two games where the opponent had injuries to contend with. So .....

Anyhow: I am still so very happy with this win. I don't care who played or who had a good game.

[SOUL]

Okeke is playing great singular defense but you only stop players with good team defense or if a player is off nowadays. Singular possessions are important which Okeke played great defense but 80% of it is them just making them work harder for shots.

[Knightro]

I am just going to say it…. All this better without Paolo talk is stupid and disappointing..

I strongly disagree. Starting a rookie inevitably leads to loses. The point for me is that Banchero must get through his 20-games of "learning" to help the team win games in a sustainable fashion.

Would Orlando have lost the last two games if Mr. air-tight defender Okeke had not started - noting that Dončić and Booker had horrible games with Okeke on them, yes losses in both games is probable.

But glass half full: Orlando won two games where the opponent had injuries to contend with. So .....

Anyhow: I am still so very happy with this win. I don't care who played or who had a good game.

This is a hilariously narrow way of looking at things.

[pepe1991]

Imo the way Magic player with Paolo vs how they play without him is more telling than just Paolo, himself ,hurting team.

There is bit more spacing without him but what's more important, there is way less isolation plays in general.

Paolo Banchero has had 46 isolations in 10 games.
Not a single Orlando Magic player, for whole lenght of nba season, since 2015 had more than 90 isolation plays called. Paolo is on pace to surpass that around his 22-24th game. For compraison sake, Franz Wagner had 56 iso plays in 79 games

This excessive overuse of isolations makes offense slower, wastes lot of time and make Magic easier to defend. Even when he is doing very good job in isolations ( 73rd percentile) it still doesn't help offense all that much to have isolation called 5 times a game.
For comparison sake, prime Lebron in Miami had 4,7 isolations for himself. And we talk about , at worst, second worst player ever.

Worst part about it is fact that his isolation numbers will actually, efficiency, vise, probably go down ( that probably probability is like 99,98% ).

bottom line, Magic should do more ball swings & more off ball movment when he comes back and play less iso basketball in general and do more spot ups ( top 10 in efficiency, top 10 in lowest frequency as well ).
Also development of better transition offense would be nice . Given how young team is, they for damn sure drag their feet in transition ( 26th in points scored off transition)

[drsd]

I am just going to say it…. All this better without Paolo talk is stupid and disappointing..

I strongly disagree. Starting a rookie inevitably leads to loses. The point for me is that Banchero must get through his 20-games of "learning" to help the team win games in a sustainable fashion.

Would Orlando have lost the last two games if Mr. air-tight defender Okeke had not started - noting that Dončić and Booker had horrible games with Okeke on them, yes losses in both games is probable.

But glass half full: Orlando won two games where the opponent had injuries to contend with. So .....

Anyhow: I am still so very happy with this win. I don't care who played or who had a good game.

This is a hilariously narrow way of looking at things.

What: that I am happy that Orlando won. Or that Banchero must get through the rookie-ness to get to greatness?


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[Knightro]

What: that I am happy that Orlando won. Or that Banchero must get through the rookie-ness to get to greatness?

The narrow viewpoint is "strongly disagreeing" with the suggestion that the "Magic are better without Paolo" talk is stupid and disappointing. It is stupid and disappointing.

Are the Magic in a small sample size better without Paolo? Probably! Since Paolo right now is a bit of a ball stopper offensively and a generally weak defender overall, but that's just the wrong way to look at it.

Winning two games without Paolo is not some sort of thing to celebrate. I get winning is more fun than losing, but it's far more important for the Magic to win games WITH Paolo on top of Paolo developing skills that will inevitably lead to more wins.

[thelead]

I'm going to say it: this conversation is stupid. I tried to ignore it but I just can't any more... stop it people. You're better than this (I hope). Don't be the average brained human that can't comprehend nuance. Please.

[zaymon]

What: that I am happy that Orlando won. Or that Banchero must get through the rookie-ness to get to greatness?

The narrow viewpoint is "strongly disagreeing" with the suggestion that the "Magic are better without Paolo" talk is stupid and disappointing. It is stupid and disappointing.

Are the Magic in a small sample size better without Paolo? Probably! Since Paolo right now is a bit of a ball stopper offensively and a generally weak defender overall, but that's just the wrong way to look at it.

Winning two games without Paolo is not some sort of thing to celebrate. I get winning is more fun than losing, but it's far more important for the Magic to win games WITH Paolo on top of Paolo developing skills that will inevitably lead to more wins.

He didnt wrote that we should play without Banchero or bench him. Paolo should play all possible games. Wins or losses shouldnt impact his playing time its obvious.
He wrote that right now Magic play better with Okeke instead of Banchero and thats true. We dont have to alter reality. It doesnt change a thing about future.

[Knightro]

He didnt wrote that we should play without Banchero or bench him. Paolo should play all possible games. Wins or losses shouldnt impact his playing time its obvious.

He wrote that right now Magic play better with Okeke instead of Banchero and thats true. We dont have to alter reality. It doesnt change a thing about future.

It being true doesn't make it not a narrow viewpoint.

Any win that comes without Paolo playing is a particularly meaningless win.

[thelead]

What: that I am happy that Orlando won. Or that Banchero must get through the rookie-ness to get to greatness?

The narrow viewpoint is "strongly disagreeing" with the suggestion that the "Magic are better without Paolo" talk is stupid and disappointing. It is stupid and disappointing.

Are the Magic in a small sample size better without Paolo? Probably! Since Paolo right now is a bit of a ball stopper offensively and a generally weak defender overall, but that's just the wrong way to look at it.

Winning two games without Paolo is not some sort of thing to celebrate. I get winning is more fun than losing, but it's far more important for the Magic to win games WITH Paolo on top of Paolo developing skills that will inevitably lead to more wins.

He didnt wrote that we should play without Banchero or bench him. Paolo should play all possible games. Wins or losses shouldnt impact his playing time its obvious.
He wrote that right now Magic play better with Okeke instead of Banchero and thats true. We dont have to alter reality. It doesnt change a thing about future.

That is still laughable. Okeke is inconsistent, as are most role players, so to say 'we play better with Chuma' is asinine. That's like saying the knicks should have built around Jeremy Lin because he got insanely hot for a few weeks. An extreme example, sure but it's just to get the same point across. There are days where Cole Anthony is our best scorer and leads us to victory, does that mean we're better with Cole over Paolo or Franz running the offense? You get the point... hopefully

[zaymon]

The narrow viewpoint is "strongly disagreeing" with the suggestion that the "Magic are better without Paolo" talk is stupid and disappointing. It is stupid and disappointing.

Are the Magic in a small sample size better without Paolo? Probably! Since Paolo right now is a bit of a ball stopper offensively and a generally weak defender overall, but that's just the wrong way to look at it.

Winning two games without Paolo is not some sort of thing to celebrate. I get winning is more fun than losing, but it's far more important for the Magic to win games WITH Paolo on top of Paolo developing skills that will inevitably lead to more wins.

He didnt wrote that we should play without Banchero or bench him. Paolo should play all possible games. Wins or losses shouldnt impact his playing time its obvious.
He wrote that right now Magic play better with Okeke instead of Banchero and thats true. We dont have to alter reality. It doesnt change a thing about future.

That is still laughable. Okeke is inconsistent, as are most role players, so to say 'we play better with Chuma' is asinine. That's like saying the knicks should have built around Jeremy Lin because he got insanely hot for a few weeks. An extreme example, sure but it's just to get the same point across. There are days where Cole Anthony is our best scorer and leads us to victory, does that mean we're better with Cole over Paolo or Franz running the offense? You get the point... hopefully

Nobody wants to build around Chuma, nobody thinks he will be better player. Just relax. With those two games its a mixture of more things not just Banchero vs Okeke. We look more organized on defense becouse Chuma is more familiar with the system, he is also quicker on his feet and has longer wingspan. On offense we leaned more on Wagner who is also better at organizing our offense right now. He also had more games to adjust. Maybe our offense would run better regardless, but Banchero is finding his rhytm right now and is stopping the ball a lot more than Okeke (for a reason becouse he is much better offensive player than Chuma, but he is not better than Franz). Paolo needs to adjust to nba its normal, i dont know why make a fuss about it. He will get better every game, he is that smart of a player.

[drsd]

What: that I am happy that Orlando won. Or that Banchero must get through the rookie-ness to get to greatness?

The narrow viewpoint is "strongly disagreeing" with the suggestion that the "Magic are better without Paolo" talk is stupid and disappointing. It is stupid and disappointing.

Are the Magic in a small sample size better without Paolo? Probably! Since Paolo right now is a bit of a ball stopper offensively and a generally weak defender overall, but that's just the wrong way to look at it.

Winning two games without Paolo is not some sort of thing to celebrate. I get winning is more fun than losing, but it's far more important for the Magic to win games WITH Paolo on top of Paolo developing skills that will inevitably lead to more wins.

Orlando was in a weird situation were locking down a single player would work to a winning strategy. Okeke is a better defender than Banchero.

But Okeke's relative-poor offense in both games certainly supports that Banchero could have supported wins in both games.

But: Orlando won so I don't care whose "right" here



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[drsd]

Any win that comes... is particularly meaningful

Fixed.

All wins matter!






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[drsd]

That is still laughable. Okeke is inconsistent, as are most role players, so to say 'we play better with Chuma' is asinine. That's like saying the knicks should have built around Jeremy Lin because he got insanely hot for a few weeks. An extreme example, sure but it's just to get the same point across. There are days where Cole Anthony is our best scorer and leads us to victory, does that mean we're better with Cole over Paolo or Franz running the offense? You get the point... hopefully

I am not sure Okeke deserves a paid position in the NBA. But he did lead Orlando to two wins.


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[tooler]

Imo the way Magic player with Paolo vs how they play without him is more telling than just Paolo, himself ,hurting team.

There is bit more spacing without him but what's more important, there is way less isolation plays in general.

Paolo Banchero has had 46 isolations in 10 games.
Not a single Orlando Magic player, for whole lenght of nba season, since 2015 had more than 90 isolation plays called. Paolo is on pace to surpass that around his 22-24th game. For compraison sake, Franz Wagner had 56 iso plays in 79 games

This excessive overuse of isolations makes offense slower, wastes lot of time and make Magic easier to defend. Even when he is doing very good job in isolations ( 73rd percentile) it still doesn't help offense all that much to have isolation called 5 times a game.
For comparison sake, prime Lebron in Miami had 4,7 isolations for himself. And we talk about , at worst, second worst player ever.

Worst part about it is fact that his isolation numbers will actually, efficiency, vise, probably go down ( that probably probability is like 99,98% ).

bottom line, Magic should do more ball swings & more off ball movment when he comes back and play less iso basketball in general and do more spot ups ( top 10 in efficiency, top 10 in lowest frequency as well ).
Also development of better transition offense would be nice . Given how young team is, they for damn sure drag their feet in transition ( 26th in points scored off transition)

The great news about this assessment is it means we actually have a star player on the roster, and we can finally complain about how best to use him and form an offense around him!

We made it to step 2, everyone!!!

[Knightro]

Any win that comes... is particularly meaningful

Fixed.

All wins matter!

The fact that you actually 100% think this is where the disconnect is.

And like, I really do get it. Losing ain't fun. But not all winning is created equally either.

[drsd]

The fact that you actually 100% think this is where the disconnect is.

And like, I really do get it. Losing ain't fun. But not all winning is created equally either.

The Magic could make the play-ins this year. Early season wins will matter in achieving that goal.


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