The Race To The Bottom - theBigLip Tank Machine

[NYPiston]

Curious the reason for that? Victor seems to be THE reason to tank.

With all due respect, I don't know why people keep saying this. Tanking really isn't that beneficial in terms of getting the #1 pick. Same odds for the bottom 3 teams, doesn't drop off too drastically thereafter. The real benefit to tanking is greatly enhancing the chance of a top 5 pick but for the top pick? It's a crapshoot, tank or not.

[buzzkilloton]

Even if we don't get Victor or Scoot, there are a ton of wings that (according to Tankathon) are slotted just after. This should be a good draft for us no matter what. We are essentially guaranteed to get one of these guys worst case.
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Yeah their will be like 8-10 guys we will be happy with. This is a great draft to end our rebuild on. Obv it would be better to pick in the top few picks but if we fall this draft is loaded with athletic players.

Amen Thompson at 3 would be a nutty get as well. He cant shoot but hes a unreal athlete, can handle the ball, and plays awesome defense.

[whitehops]

Yeah their will be like 8-10 guys we will be happy with. This is a great draft to end our rebuild on. Obv it would be better to pick in the top few picks but if we fall this draft is loaded with athletic players.

Amen Thompson at 3 would be a nutty get as well. He cant shoot but hes a unreal athlete, can handle the ball, and plays awesome defense.

yeah it's really early in the season so prospects will show more on tape throughout the year but i've wondered about how amen would fit on our roster. he's pretty much a hyper athletic josh giddey, and even though he has the size to play on the wing (6'7 with a wingspan around 6'11) his game is very much guard-oriented. i think scoot henderson is a calibre of player where you push ivey to the bench but not sure about amen, mainly given his inability to shoot.

but yeah this draft is almost perfect for us, even if we miss out on wembanyama or henderson. besides nick smith all the other top prospects are athletic wing players. the only downside is that GG jackson is the only "big wing" projected to go in the top 10, and we need a big wing at some point to help match up against teams that have a big front court.

[theBigLip]

Yeah their will be like 8-10 guys we will be happy with. This is a great draft to end our rebuild on. Obv it would be better to pick in the top few picks but if we fall this draft is loaded with athletic players.

Amen Thompson at 3 would be a nutty get as well. He cant shoot but hes an unreal athlete, can handle the ball, and plays awesome defense.

but yeah this draft is almost perfect for us, even if we miss out on wembanyama or henderson. besides nick smith all the other top prospects are athletic wing players. the only downside is that GG jackson is the only "big wing" projected to go in the top 10, and we need a big wing at some point to help match up against teams that have a big front court.

Agree on the big wing, but whatever we don’t get in the draft we will get in Free Agency. Next summer should be awesome.

[Kalamazoo317]

No need to tank. We just continue to try our hardest to build a winning culture and let the depth of talent in the league and our youthful inexperience take care of the rest. We'll have decent enough lottery odds when all is said and done (and if not, it'll be because some of our young talent developed way faster than expected!). Win/win.

[bjones521]

This draft is loaded. Bates looked good. Yes he may have issues but he was ranked 1st in his year for years for a reason. He almost beat UofM by himself . We are getting a top 6 pick this year and I wouldn't mind Bates 3rd-6th.

[buzzkilloton]

This draft is loaded. Bates looked good. Yes he may have issues but he was ranked 1st in his year for years for a reason. He almost beat UofM by himself . We are getting a top 6 pick this year and I wouldn't mind Bates 3rd-6th.

Will see how high Bates goes up the board. If I see any big name scouts giving a update on his draft stock I'll post in the draft thread. I'm not thinking hes top 10 currently hes got alot of baggage but we shall see. For sure cheering for the kid after almost blowing all that talent. His father is whats held him back.

[buzzkilloton]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

538 has us in the Rockets way way ahead on their win projections.

Rockets 17wins
Pistons 21 wins
Magic 26wins

Obv their formula isnt perfect but still interesting. I find it hard to believe were 4 games better then the Rockets unless their SOS is much easier. Anyways 1 in 7 for VW and 1 in 7 for Scoot put their odds together and then look at the rest of the draft class very bullish.

[tmorgan]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

538 has us in the Rockets way way ahead on their win projections.

Rockets 17wins
Pistons 21 wins
Magic 26wins

Obv their formula isnt perfect but still interesting. I find it hard to believe were 4 games better then the Rockets unless their SOS is much easier. Anyways 1 in 7 for VW and 1 in 7 for Scoot put their odds together and then look at the rest of the draft class very bullish.

The Rockets really do suck, tho. Their PG hunts buckets and plays no defense. Their SG hunts buckets and plays no defense. Their top 3 pick is off to a slow start. Eason’s about the only guy everyone is happy with.

We suck, too. But I think they suck worse.

[buzzkilloton]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

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The Rockets really do suck, tho. Their PG hunts buckets and plays no defense. Their SG hunts buckets and plays no defense. Their top 3 pick is off to a slow start. Eason’s about the only guy everyone is happy with.

We suck, too. But I think they suck worse.

They can have the worst team crown. As long as were in the bottom 3 I'm happy overall. Obv it sucks to get knocked down to 6 or something but were getting a good player.

The way I see it is we have VW the once every 30 year type generational prospect. Then we have Scoot whos a 1 pick in the majority of draft type prospects. Were 1 in 7 on VW and 1 in 7 Scoot. Thats a 28.5% chance for a true game changer. Also going to be multiple other good prospects in the draft that we could use.

[FloridaMan78]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

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The Rockets really do suck, tho. Their PG hunts buckets and plays no defense. Their SG hunts buckets and plays no defense. Their top 3 pick is off to a slow start. Eason’s about the only guy everyone is happy with.

We suck, too. But I think they suck worse.

They can have the worst team crown. As long as were in the bottom 3 I'm happy overall. Obv it sucks to get knocked down to 6 or something but were getting a good player.

The way I see it is we have VW the once every 30 year type generational prospect. Then we have Scoot whos a 1 pick in the majority of draft type prospects. Were 1 in 7 on VW and 1 in 7 Scoot. Thats a 28.5% chance for a true game changer. Also going to be multiple other good prospects in the draft that we could use.

Bottom three odds at Wenbayama and Scoot and I'm happy.

I'm a little concerned at picking three though as I think Amen Thompson will go third. While I think he has crazy potential, his shot is still a question mark and I don't think he'll ever be a knock down shooter. At least Scoot has a good 15-17 footer.

[theBigLip]

Obviously hoping for Victor, maybe we trade Scoot if we end up at 2, and then after that we should be hunting for a solid wing player, which we should get in the top 8 (worst case scenario). And even though our odds don't change if we have one of the worst 3 records, it still pays to be closer to the bottom so we don't get bumped too much if some other team gets lucky.

[theBigLip]

What about the Lakers? I can't imagine, but if LBJ doesn't stay healthy or AD goes down, they may stay in the lottery (and give their pick to the Pelicans).

[buzzkilloton]

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Bottom three odds at Wenbayama and Scoot and I'm happy.

I'm a little concerned at picking three though as I think Amen Thompson will go third. While I think he has crazy potential, his shot is still a question mark and I don't think he'll ever be a knock down shooter. At least Scoot has a good 15-17 footer.

Scoot is actually opening the year at 45% from 3pter in Gleague but only off of 3 shots per game. I'm not expecting that to continue but still. Also like you said hes a killer in the mid range.

I watched a youtube showing his improving shot mechanics. Hes a really high IQ player who gets it. Hes about as good as a bet as you can make on a player improving a outside shot over their career.

Amen hasnt shown 3pt shooting whatsoever but he can at least hit a free throw. He could be a higher IQ Ben Simmons thats a generational athlete who cant shoot but cant be hackashaqed at the end of game. I think currently you have to take him at 3 if he stays a tier above the next guys through the process.

The thing is though if status quo through the season is Cade/Ivey are low 30s 3pt shooters Amen isnt gonna fit. To me I would just trade one of Cade and Ivey and keep Amen in that case. Amen gives us a defensive edge that are team desperately needs. I'd be ok putting him at the 3 if Cade/Ivey show they can provide spacing and offball play together through the season.

[buzzkilloton]

What about the Lakers? I can't imagine, but if LBJ doesn't stay healthy or AD goes down, they may stay in the lottery (and give their pick to the Pelicans).

I would expect they win enough to stay out of the bottom 5 as the season goes. They just have no reason to tank owing that pick.

[MotownMadness]

Looking good

[reanimator]

Unless Cade/Ivey end this season on a low note, I don't see how you trade either. I actually think this draft has the potential to be a nightmare for the Pistons even with the talent due to the various fit issues.That said if you take Scoot/Amen, you let them prove they are better than Cade/Ivey before trading anyone but that poses problems because spacing and amount of touches won't be ideal to really evaluate.

GG Jackson I am skeptical on. Good size but good not great athlete imo and doesn't have that 1 skill he can hang his hat on but this can certainly change as the season progresses.

I like Kris Murray but does he (or his brother) give you much that Bey doesn't?

Jarace and Dillon Mitchell would be excellent defensively at the forward spots and can playmake but their lack of shooting make them bad fits.

Whitmore and Whitehead seem to check the most boxes from what we know today but neither have taken the court yet.

Keyonte George might actually be better fit than Amen/Scoot if you do the 3 guard lineup with Cade at SF (not my preference)

Cason Wallace is a guy I'd love to have if the Pistons end up towards the end of the lottery. Marcus Smart/Jrue Holiday type potential

[Manocad]

I don't see why drafting another BPA guard like Scoot would be a problem. He's a rookie and comes off the bench; no big deal. Not to mention it's not like starting means any player has to play 35 minutes/game and whoever is behind him gets 13. There are certainly ways to juggle the lineups such that a hypothetical team of Cade, Ivey and Scoot could all get ample opportunities to do their thing.

[reanimator]

Its a problem because of lack of shooting not minutes. And no, its not easy giving 3 guys who are best onball ample opportunities. Superstars try and have to make sacrifices but 3 young guys won't have issues?

[Manocad]

Its a problem because of lack of shooting not minutes. And no, its not easy giving 3 guys who are best onball ample opportunities. Superstars try and have to make sacrifices but 3 young guys won't have issues?

These guys aren't superstars yet. That's the point. Three guys each getting 20+ shots a game? The Pistons have already had games where this occurred with all three guys on the court at the same time so no, I don't think it's an unrealistic scenario.