GT #15: SuperSonics @ Bullets 7 PM (NBCSW/980 AM) [11/16/22]

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Man I hate the negativity. That was a good game. Our boys played really well and lost a hard fought game.

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I think most are just ticked with a game we had a good chance of winning being lost on such a mind-numbingly stupid defensive lineup trotted out there by WUJ on that SGA winning three. It just felt like you do all that work, against an amazing second half from SGA, and you throw it away with what seems like an academic coaching decision not to play a short, bad defender in Morris.

Beal had a good game coming off his 19th run in with COVID, no doubt. Really had a good offensive 4th quarter, finally made some big shots and didn't really cough up the ball like he typically does.

I think the gripe with Beal is, after 10+ years with this team, where he should have a high level of comfort, he still makes careless mistakes, has rookie mental lapses, complains a lot, lacks self-accountability, doesn't hustle, and doesn't lead. He can have all the good offensive games in the world, but if he doesn't offer some of these very important intangibles, the moaning and groaning will continue. That's on him, he wanted to be the supermax dude, goes on about winning, and the likes all the time. Well freaking prove it! It's not just proven by having an efficient scoring game which is seemingly the only thing some hope from him in order for him to get a pass on any given night. He has to do the little things, the nuanced things, then maybe, at least me personally, maybe some of the complaining will simmer down. And I don't believe that's going to happen based on every shred of evidence I've seen from him, but epiphanies can happen I suppose.

[NatP4]

Wright coming back won’t help much. He’s a great player, probably the 2nd best player on this team, but Wes will just take Goodwin out of the rotation and go back to Wright/Morris at the PG spot. You gain a little, but not much.

The three best players on this team have been Porzingis/Goodwin/Wright. Beal is a total afterthought and not a winning player by any stretch.

We stop playing real basketball with Beal in the game. It’s all just force-feeding him the ball and running a horrible mechanical 1 on 5 offense.

[FAH1223]

Wright coming back won’t help much. He’s a great player, probably the 2nd best player on this team, but Wes will just take Goodwin out of the rotation and go back to Wright/Morris at the PG spot. You gain a little, but not much.

The three best players on this team have been Porzingis/Goodwin/Wright. Beal is a total afterthought and not a winning player by any stretch.

We stop playing real basketball with Beal in the game. It’s all just force-feeding him the ball and running a horrible mechanical 1 on 5 offense.

Beal has played well this season.

[nate33]

I just watched the game this morning. A couple of observations:

- Deni was fantastic! SGA had 42 points, but only about 8 on Deni. And on 2 of those buckets, Deni blocked the shot cleanly and got called for foul anyway. Basically, Deni totally shut him down. SGA had nearly ALL of his points on switches against other defenders. He scored at will against anybody else (except Rui had a nice stop in the 3rd quarter). This was honestly one of the best games Deni has ever played - other than that last inbound pass.

- I thought Beal was good too. He played within the offense in the 1st half, sticking 2 threes, getting 4 rebounds, and playing some nice D while grabbing loose balls. He went cold in the 3rd quarter, but I didn't think he was forcing bad shots. And he uncharacteristically played extremely well down the stretch, hitting a bunch of clutch buckets and making his free throws. He also had only 1 turnover on the night, and OKC has a lot of long-armed defenders wreaking havoc. Basically, he finished with 25 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists on a TS% of about 59% with only 1 turnover, despite not really shooting that well and having a very physical Lou Dort draped all over him. Not much to complain about there.

- Porzingis was excellent. When he was on the court, OKC didn't really have an answer. He is our best player and he played like it. Unfortunately, with OKC playing a stretch 5 (Poku or Williams), Porzingis couldn't stay close enough to the paint to protect the rim from SGA drives. This was also why Wes didn't even bother playing Gafford in the 2nd half.

- Rui was also good. He showed some of the best off-ball defense I've ever seen from him. Those 3 steals have to be a career high, and he efficiently knocked down shots.

- Kispert was horrendous. Just an absolute disaster. He turned it over almost every time he touched it, and he got lit up defensively when switched onto SGA. Wes had no choice but to get him off the floor. It was one his worst nights of his career.

- Kuzma rebounded and passed well, but those 7 turnovers were devastating. And most of them were unforced. If you just take away the 3 or 4 really bad turnovers, they would have won the game. I don't think any 1 player deserves the blame for this loss, but I really think Kuzma's unforced turnovers were the most egregious, unnecessary mistakes made. You have to value possessions more than that.

- The 2nd unit stint in the late 1st/early 2nd was an unmitigated disaster. They just couldn't score.

- On the second-to-last defensive possession, I got real annoyed because Beal redirected Deni to another defender so that Beal could guard SGA. As it turned out, Beal did a nice job on that possession, forcing SGA to kick it out for contested miss by Jalen Williams. So credit to him. But still, Deni was unquestionably the best defender of SGA, Beal should not have taken that assignment. Process is more important than results.

- On the last possession, Beal was again assigned to guard SGA. SGA ran off a pretty rudimentary screen with the guy Morris was guarding that ended up switching Morris onto SGA for the isolation play. The team has to do better than that. You can't allow one of the 5 best scorers in the game to get matched up against our worst defender without at least requiring them to use some clock to generate the switch. Frankly, Morris shouldn't have been in the game. With Goodwin hurt, I'd have gone with Beal, Barton, Deni, Kuz and Rui. Wes really blew it there.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

I just watched the game this morning. A couple of observations:

- Deni was fantastic! SGA had 42 points, but only about 8 on Deni. And on 2 of those buckets, Deni blocked the shot cleanly and got called for foul anyway. Basically, Deni totally shut him down. SGA had nearly ALL of his points on switches against other defenders. He scored at will against anybody else (except Rui had a nice stop in the 3rd quarter). This was honestly one of the best games Deni has ever played - other than that last inbound pass.

- I thought Beal was good too. He played within the offense in the 1st half, sticking 2 threes, getting 4 rebounds, and playing some nice D while grabbing loose balls. He went cold in the 3rd quarter, but I didn't think he was forcing bad shots. And he uncharacteristically played extremely well down the stretch, hitting a bunch of clutch buckets and making his free throws. He also had only 1 turnover on the night, and OKC has a lot of long-armed defenders wreaking havoc. Basically, he finished with 25 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists on a TS% of about 59% with only 1 turnover, despite not really shooting that well and having a very physical Lou Dort draped all over him. Not much to complain about there.

- Porzingis was excellent. When he was on the court, OKC didn't really have an answer. He is our best player and he played like it. Unfortunately, with OKC playing a stretch 5 (Poku or Williams), Porzingis couldn't stay close enough to the paint to protect the rim from SGA drives. This was also why Wes didn't even bother playing Gafford in the 2nd half.

- Rui was also good. He showed some of the best off-ball defense I've ever seen from him. Those 3 steals have to be a career high, and he efficiently knocked down shots.

- Kispert was horrendous. Just an absolute disaster. He turned it over almost every time he touched it, and he got lit up defensively when switched onto SGA. Wes had no choice but to get him off the floor. It was one his worst nights of his career.

- Kuzma rebounded and passed well, but those 7 turnovers were devastating. And most of them were unforced. If you just take away the 3 or 4 really bad turnovers, they would have won the game. I don't think any 1 player deserves the blame for this loss, but I really think Kuzma's unforced turnovers were the most egregious, unnecessary mistakes made. You have to value possessions more than that.

- The 2nd unit stint in the late 1st/early 2nd was an unmitigated disaster. They just couldn't score.

- On the second-to-last defensive possession, I got real annoyed because Beal redirected Deni to another defender so that Beal could guard SGA. As it turned out, Beal did a nice job on that possession, forcing SGA to kick it out for contested miss by Jalen Williams. So credit to him. But still, Deni was unquestionably the best defender of SGA, Beal should not have taken that assignment. Process is more important than results.

- On the last possession, Beal was again assigned to guard SGA. SGA ran off a pretty rudimentary screen with the guy Morris was guarding that ended up switching Morris onto SGA for the isolation play. The team has to do better than that. You can't allow one of the 5 best scorers in the game to get matched up against our worst defender without at least requiring them to use some clock to generate the switch. Frankly, Morris shouldn't have been in the game. With Goodwin hurt, I'd have gone with Beal, Barton, Deni, Kuz and Rui. Wes really blew it there.

Excellent observation there. I noticed that too, and Beal frankly got lucky he wasn't called for a foul on that possession. I think most unsettling about it is that Beal actually maybe thinks somewhere in the back of his head he's a better defender than Deni, much less a good defender.

Also pretty spot on everywhere else, Deni was excellent on SGA the reason he had a good second half is they went out of their way to keeping setting a pick to get Deni off of him. Even Kuzma was struggling to guard him.

[payitforward]

I had to miss it last night too & started watching it this morning. But, when we threw away most of a 16 point lead in 2 1/2 minutes I decided I wasn't going to enjoy watching the rest of it.

Obviously, the 4th quarter was intense, so maybe I'll go back & watch it once my ears stop steaming.

[payitforward]

...- Rui was also good. He showed some of the best off-ball defense I've ever seen from him. Those 3 steals have to be a career high, and he efficiently knocked down shots....

You couldn't ask a guy to do more to help his team in 18 minutes, that's for sure!
Overall, I'd call this Rui's best NBA outing... ever!

In 71 minutes, btw, the entire bench managed 6 rebounds!

[payitforward]

An OKC player whom I assume at least some Wizards fans here never heard of came off the bench for 13 minutes last night.

He turned 3 FGAs & 4 FTAs into 8 points (that's an .840 TS%).
He also grabbed 3 defensive boards & had an assist. Plus, he had an offensive rebound too, but he nullified it by turning the ball over one time.

Still, overall that's good stuff on in only 13 minutes.
Really, you could give him POTG for OKC if you wanted (given it was a 1-point win).

His name is Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, & he plays just under 20 minutes a night at the 4 for OKC.
7th on the team in minutes.

He's shooting the 3 at just under 44% this year.
In all, I'd say he's quite a promising young player.

I bring him up, b/c OKC took him at #32 in the '21 draft -- right after we chose Isaiah Todd.
Isaiah Todd didn't play last night, did he?

Of course, OKC didn't come into that draft owning the #32 pick.
They traded the #34 & 36 picks to the Knicks for the #32, they used on Robinson-Earl

Essentially, that means they gave the #36 pick to move from #34 to #32. That's a lot to give !!
They also must not have thought he'd last even 2 more picks.

They must really have wanted Robinson-Earl.
&, it seems, they must have really good scouts to have that kind of confidence in them, huh?

Then again, the Knicks could have done really well with the #34 & 36, come to think of it.
They could have taken Herb Jones & Ayo Dosunmu, right...?

Of course, they'd have missed out on the chance to add Isaiah Todd to their teams, right?
That would have been sad for them. Right?

Those 3 guys -- Robinson-Earl, Herb Jones, & Ayo Dosunmu -- have played almost 1,000 minutes so far this season.
Isaiah Todd has played 9 minutes.

[sasquatchBob]

Im watching some Wizards games because of KP, so saw this one. I think you can blame this loss on Unseld. What terrible play drawn out from a timeout. They didn't even need a 3 and the inbound guys is passing it across the court to Beal for a 3.

[dobrojim]

re Porzingus and to Nate's point, no matter how many times Chris Miller (not Martin) says Beal
is our best player, he's not. I agree with Nate I thought and the numbers bear out
he played well and has done so consistently all year. I agree with pretty much everyone
else (as well as Nate) Beal's contract is horrendous.

I had early doubts about the Unicorn and maybe they will bear out an some point
due to injury. Those doubts were centered around the fear that given that he plays
the 5, he wouldn't score efficiently for a 5. Also I was afraid he would jack too
many 3s, but he's been really good, all-star level player and could even do better
when his teammates adjust to him. And his height around the rim is a major impediment
to opp offenses. Some of his blocks have been sick from the point of view of
what was the shooter thinking? as they are snuffed out so demonstrably and
emphatically.

[Halcyon]

For Beal to be "worth" the max contract, he has to play like Donovan Mitchell, SGA, or at least Devin Booker. Instead Beal has played like a 2nd or 3rd best player on a good team, and that's not enough. There's no way KP should be the clear best player on the team, when Beal is getting max dollars. That contract is going to age poorly too, when he loses his explosiveness, especially with his shooting having regressed.

[nate33]

For Beal to be "worth" the max contract, he has to play like Donovan Mitchell, SGA, or at least Devin Booker. Instead Beal has played like a 2nd or 3rd best player on a good team, and that's not enough. There's no way KP should be the clear best player on the team, when Beal is getting max dollars. That contract is going to age poorly too, when he loses his explosiveness, especially with his shooting having regressed.

This is true, but it's not Beal's fault.

I've said for a while that Beal is a $30M-a-year player being paid $50M. I'm not expecting him to play like a $50M a year player because I know full well that he isn't that good.

I don't begrudge Beal for getting paid so much. ALL players should try and get paid as much as they can. The problem here is Leonsis and Sheppard. Be mad at them for signing Beal to that contract, a contract that is going to prevent us from filling out the roster with good players, and will force us to let decent players depart in free agency for luxtax reasons. But don't blame Beal.

I'm only mad at Beal when he doesn't even play like a $30M-a-year player. Tonight he did, so I'm good.

[payitforward]

re Porzingus and to Nate's point, no matter how many times Chris Martin says Beal is our best player, he's not. I agree with Nate I thought and the numbers bear out he played well and has done so consistently all year. ...

...And his height around the rim is a major impediment to opp offenses. Some of his blocks have been sick from the point of view of
what was the shooter thinking? as they are snuffed out so demonstrably and emphatically.

Here's the thing. However "sick" his blocks are, however "demonstrably and emphatically" shots "are snuffed out," a blocked shot is a blocked shot.

It's a good thing, w/o a doubt, & the more Porzingis & others block the better it is for us (not at the expense of doing other things, of course, but we're not talking about that).

So blocked shots certainly do figure into a discussion of how well KP is playing. & the way they figure in is based on how many he's blocking (not how "demonstrably and emphatically... snuffed" a shot is, but how many they are).

Hence, the fact that so far this year KP is blocking fewer shots for us than he did last year, & in fact is blocking shots at the lowest rate of his career (tied w/ his rate in '20-21 & way way below his rate across 6 of his previous 7 seasons, would be an indication that he's playing worse not better than he played for us last year.

As would the fact that his assists are down to 74% of what they were for us last year.
Ditto that is offensive rebounds are down too.
Ditto that so are his defensive rebounds. They're down too.

His usage is also down too. He's taking fewer shots, getting to the line less, & scoring fewer points. OTOH, on lower usage, his TS% is somewhat higher (as is often the case for a player on lower usage).

On the season so far, IOW, KP is by no means knocking it out of the park. OTOH, he has had a few absolutely terrific games, & his last 4 games overall have been his best stretch (.662 TS%) -- so maybe he's headed for the stratosphere. But, it's also true that we went 1-5 over a stretch -- w/ KP playing @34 minutes a game.

Again... he has had 4 good games in a row, including a monster outing against Utah! But, that's not the whole story.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

re Porzingus and to Nate's point, no matter how many times Chris Martin says Beal
is our best player, he's not. I agree with Nate I thought and the numbers bear out
he played well and has done so consistently all year. I agree with pretty much everyone
else (as well as Nate) Beal's contract is horrendous.

I had early doubts about the Unicorn and maybe they will bear out an some point
due to injury. Those doubts were centered around the fear that given that he plays
the 5, he wouldn't score efficiently for a 5. Also I was afraid he would jack too
many 3s, but he's been really good, all-star level player and could even do better
when his teammates adjust to him. And his height around the rim is a major impediment
to opp offenses. Some of his blocks have been sick from the point of view of
what was the shooter thinking? as they are snuffed out so demonstrably and
emphatically.

great post. but, special pleading for my guy aside, more than his blocks is the number of times he changes the shot to a miss or simply deters the shooter. For every block there are numbers of times the person driving into the paint suddenly goes when meeting a waiting KP, literally, "omfg .. wtf am I supposed to do here?", and either goes into fast reverse and recycles the ball out, or makes a prayer and chucks a low percentage shot.

[DCZards]

Yup…there are blocked shots and then there are what I would call “discouraged” shots. While it won’t show up on the stat sheet, a “discouraged” shot can be as impactful as a blocked shot.

A 7-3, long rim protector like KP both blocks shots and discourages shots.

[dobrojim]

re Porzingus and to Nate's point, no matter how many times Chris Martin says Beal is our best player, he's not. I agree with Nate I thought and the numbers bear out he played well and has done so consistently all year. ...

...And his height around the rim is a major impediment to opp offenses. Some of his blocks have been sick from the point of view of
what was the shooter thinking? as they are snuffed out so demonstrably and emphatically.

Here's the thing. However "sick" his blocks are, however "demonstrably and emphatically" shots "are snuffed out," a blocked shot is a blocked shot.

It's a good thing, w/o a doubt, & the more Porzingis & others block the better it is for us (not at the expense of doing other things, of course, but we're not talking about that).

So blocked shots certainly do figure into a discussion of how well KP is playing. & the way they figure in is based on how many he's blocking (not how "demonstrably and emphatically... snuffed" a shot is, but how many they are).

Hence, the fact that so far this year KP is blocking fewer shots for us than he did last year, & in fact is blocking shots at the lowest rate of his career (tied w/ his rate in '20-21 & way way below his rate across 6 of his previous 7 seasons, would be an indication that he's playing worse not better than he played for us last year.

As would the fact that his assists are down to 74% of what they were for us last year.
Ditto that is offensive rebounds are down too.
Ditto that so are his defensive rebounds. They're down too.

His usage is also down too. He's taking fewer shots, getting to the line less, & scoring fewer points. OTOH, on lower usage, his TS% is somewhat higher (as is often the case for a player on lower usage).

On the season so far, IOW, KP is by no means knocking it out of the park. OTOH, he has had a few absolutely terrific games, & his last 4 games overall have been his best stretch (.662 TS%) -- so maybe he's headed for the stratosphere. But, it's also true that we went 1-5 over a stretch -- w/ KP playing @34 minutes a game.

Again... he has had 4 good games in a row, including a monster outing against Utah! But, that's not the whole story.

I'm not sure who you are arguing with. I never said a blocked shot was more than it is.
I was just commenting on the aesthetics. I like it when one of our players makes a good
play. I like it even more when it is done in a manner that might discourage opp players
from trying again, ie KP is taking away something that opp would like to do. I imagine,
arguably without evidence, that opp players might be worried about appearances.
I also understand that blocks don't always result in change of possession. And there
are potential negative aspects such as being out of position for rebounds.

My main point was mostly that after an initial period in which I felt KP's style of
play was not as conducive to winning as one might have thought, that he was
an effective player. Some of that initial impression was based on numbers that
suggested he was less efficient than a typical 5 is. But he's played well and could
even improve.

[payitforward]

...his height around the rim is a major impediment to opp offenses. Some of his blocks have been sick from the point of view of what was the shooter thinking? as they are snuffed out so demonstrably and emphatically.

...more than his blocks is the number of times he changes the shot to a miss or simply deters the shooter. For every block there are numbers of times the person driving into the paint ...either goes into fast reverse... or makes a prayer and chucks a low percentage shot.

Yup…there are blocked shots and then there are what I would call “discouraged” shots. A “discouraged” shot can be as impactful as a blocked shot.

A 7-3, long rim protector like KP both blocks shots and discourages shots.

OKC went 44-81 against us.
That's an efg% of just over 64%. So, I'm not sure how discouraged they can have felt.

Seems like the only reason the game was close is that they went 17-26 from the line. & of course we did roar out of the gate to a 17-point lead. Not close at all after that.

[payitforward]

re Porzingus and to Nate's point, no matter how many times Chris Martin says Beal is our best player, he's not. I agree with Nate I thought and the numbers bear out he played well and has done so consistently all year. ...

...And his height around the rim is a major impediment to opp offenses. Some of his blocks have been sick from the point of view of
what was the shooter thinking? as they are snuffed out so demonstrably and emphatically.

Here's the thing. However "sick" his blocks are, however "demonstrably and emphatically" shots "are snuffed out," a blocked shot is a blocked shot.

It's a good thing, w/o a doubt, & the more Porzingis & others block the better it is for us (not at the expense of doing other things, of course, but we're not talking about that).

So blocked shots certainly do figure into a discussion of how well KP is playing. & the way they figure in is based on how many he's blocking (not how "demonstrably and emphatically... snuffed" a shot is, but how many they are).

Hence, the fact that so far this year KP is blocking fewer shots for us than he did last year, & in fact is blocking shots at the lowest rate of his career (tied w/ his rate in '20-21 & way way below his rate across 6 of his previous 7 seasons, would be an indication that he's playing worse not better than he played for us last year.

As would the fact that his assists are down to 74% of what they were for us last year.
Ditto that is offensive rebounds are down too.
Ditto that so are his defensive rebounds. They're down too.

His usage is also down too. He's taking fewer shots, getting to the line less, & scoring fewer points. OTOH, on lower usage, his TS% is somewhat higher (as is often the case for a player on lower usage).

On the season so far, IOW, KP is by no means knocking it out of the park. OTOH, he has had a few absolutely terrific games, & his last 4 games overall have been his best stretch (.662 TS%) -- so maybe he's headed for the stratosphere. But, it's also true that we went 1-5 over a stretch -- w/ KP playing @34 minutes a game.

Again... he has had 4 good games in a row, including a monster outing against Utah! But, that's not the whole story.

I'm not sure who you are arguing with. I never said a blocked shot was more than it is.
I was just commenting on the aesthetics. I like it when one of our players makes a good
play. I like it even more when it is done in a manner that might discourage opp players
from trying again, ie KP is taking away something that opp would like to do. I imagine,
arguably without evidence, that opp players might be worried about appearances.
I also understand that blocks don't always result in change of possession. And there
are potential negative aspects such as being out of position for rebounds.

My main point was mostly that after an initial period in which I felt KP's style of
play was not as conducive to winning as one might have thought, that he was
an effective player. Some of that initial impression was based on numbers that
suggested he was less efficient than a typical 5 is. But he's played well and could
even improve.

Obviously, I misunderstood you. When you wrote that...

re Porzingus and to Nate's point, no matter how many times Chris Martin says Beal is our best player, he's not. I agree with Nate I thought and the numbers bear out he (i.e. Porzingis) played well and has done so consistently all year.... And his height around the rim is a major impediment to opp offenses....

...I thought you were suggesting that Porzingis has been better this year than Brad Beal. That he (not Brad or anyone else) has been "our best player" so far.

If you were "just commenting on the aesthetics," my bad.

&, to repeat, KP has been terrific the last 4 games.