Do Garbage Minutes Matter re: Ranking Players?

[ty 4191]

I defined Garbage Time/Garbage Minutes/Blowouts as games decided by 15 or more points, in both directions. This took quite awhile, but here are the results (I started with 3 players, only), to get a sense of how impactful Garbage Time might be...

Jokic:
-581 career games played
-155 blowout games (26.6%)
-28 mins, 5 seconds played per blowout game
-17.3 ppg/9.8 rbs/6.2 ast
-Avg Game Score: 17.3

Jordan:
-1,109 career games played
-305 career blowout games (27.5%)
-35 mins, 8 seconds played per blowout game
-28.5 ppg/6.2 rbs/5.3 ast
-Avg Game Score: 23.7

Kareem:
-1,797 games played
-540 career blowout games (30.05%)
-33 minutes, 50 seconds played per blowout game
-24.0 ppg/12.3 rbs/3.4 ast
-Avg Game Score (Note: 77’-78 through 88’-89’ only): 19.7

The premise is simple; the statistics of today's players are (significantly) deflated because they only average 33-34 minutes per game, and don't play garbage minutes. Hardly at all.

Thoughts? How important is this when we rank/compare/assess players of the past 5-10 years vs. the era before "load management" and drastically reduced minutes?

[AEnigma]

Interesting idea and work, although I think it would require a large sample and analysis to make much of it.

For Jokic, how much of that is tied to when he was playing lower minutes anyway?

[penbeast0]

Alternative premise: The per minute statistics of today's players are inflated because they don't play the large minutes and can expend more energy knowing they will get more bench rest.

[AEnigma]

If you want to go that direction, pace and activity level would swing it back.

[ty 4191]

Alternative premise: The per minute statistics of today's players are inflated because they don't play the large minutes and can expend more energy knowing they will get more bench rest.

That is certainly something I've strongly considered. It's an interesting hypothesis.

It's just like baseball pitchers today vs., say,1970 or (much moreso), several decades before that. Starters were all expected to go 8-9 innings every single game, whereas today's starters rarely, if ever, go 9 innings, throwing at max exertion and velocity on every single pitch. They called it "pacing", back in the day. Today's starters can't get away with pacing, because every hitter can (and, usually, does) hit 20+ home runs a year, doing massive damage in the process.

[ty 4191]

For Jokic, how much of that is tied to when he was playing lower minutes anyway?

None of it. I went through every game of his career. And, the others. Including the playoffs.

Who else would you like to see? I think we're onto something here re: Garbage Minutes and records/stats/rankings....

[MyUniBroDavis]

If I’m reading this right, I don’t really think the fact that Kareem played a minute more than he needed to in a third of his games means much lol

[trex_8063]

While I don't want to disparage the work you've done [I'm sure it took A LOT of time to compile], I'm not sure this data is truly getting at the thing you're trying to get at.

If I'm reading it right, you've simply compiled their full-game stats from games which were ultimately blow-outs........but that doesn't mean their minutes/stats occurred during "garbage time".
I mean, the score started at 0-0, and it likely took quite awhile before the game was truly decided.........and most likely those stars went to the bench shortly after the coach was confident that the game was truly out of reach for the opponent (i.e. they're sitting soon after it became true "garbage time").

Not to mention, the high level of play of the star in question is [in most instances] probably a significant part of WHY/HOW the game became a blow-out in the first place.

[ty 4191]

While I don't want to disparage the work you've done [I'm sure it took A LOT of time to compile], I'm not sure this data is truly getting at the thing you're trying to get at.

If I'm reading it right, you've simply compiled their full-game stats from games which were ultimately blow-outs........but that doesn't mean their minutes/stats occurred during "garbage time".
I mean, the score started at 0-0, and it likely took quite awhile before the game was truly decided.........and most likely those stars went to the bench shortly after the coach was confident that the game was truly out of reach for the opponent (i.e. they're sitting soon after it became true "garbage time").

Not to mention, the high level of play of the star in question is [in most instances] probably a significant part of WHY/HOW the game became a blow-out in the first place.

Great point, TRex. Thanks for your input.

So, is there a different way to quantify and "get at" what I was trying to get at?

[AEnigma]

You would probably need to look at time played relative to when you might say “garbage time” started. Of course this is much more difficult pre-1997.

[trex_8063]

You would probably need to look at time played relative to when you might say “garbage time” started. Of course this is much more difficult pre-1997.

Yeah. I think you'd have to go into the game log (play-by-play) data [which only goes back as far as the '97 season on bbref] and determine at what point "garbage time" began, and then tabulate for yourself how many minutes were played and stats accumulated during that time.
Would be a much more ambitious and time-consuming project.

[andyhop]

You would probably need to look at time played relative to when you might say “garbage time” started. Of course this is much more difficult pre-1997.

You would also have to work out if garbage time today is different to garbage time 20 years ago with the changing of the style of the game

[ty 4191]

You would probably need to look at time played relative to when you might say “garbage time” started. Of course this is much more difficult pre-1997.

You would also have to work out if garbage time today is different to garbage time 20 years ago with the changing of the style of the game

It's different. When was the last time you saw Jokic, or any superstar player of the last 5 years, on the floor at (or near) the end of a 20+ point blowout?

[An Unbiased Fan]

They do, especially with +/- stats