OT: Crypto, Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Investments, IRAs & Finances, etc.

[br7knicks]

Can't tell if this rally in the equities market is a pump fake or not.

Didn't add much to my taxable brokerage account. I brought 1 share of VOO, 2 VIG and 3 VXUS when the s&p touched 3400 a month ago.

Increased contributions to my 401k tho but that money doesn't really matter.

rallies are common in bear markets. we are in a recession, and in a bear market. unfortunately, it's going to get worse.

i'm still continuing to do my weekly (i changed it from monthly) contribution of ~$125 into my roth IRAs. but any of the extra money i'd normally be pumping into the market (not ROTH IRA) I am saving up to pump into the market later, or get a rental property


we will likely see this bear market until 2024. after Spring-ish of 2023, when the market drops ~10-15%+ for me, I will pump some extra dollars in - the extra money i have been saving up since march of last year when i pulled my money out, as it was obvious to see this bear market and recession coming.


i recently lowered my contributions to VXUS. i thought the US was going to go to complete ****, and it'd be smarter to be in international markets (VEA + VWO, or VXUS). i was wrong. the US sucks right now, but the rest of the world is much worse.


i'm going to continue to put in my typical weekly contributions to make sure my ROTH IRA is maxed. extra money will either go into ~10-15% drops, and a future rental property(s).


this girl's video on why you shouldn't "buy the dip" was great - she legit goes through the math, which is crazy to see. that's why i'll continue to do my weekly contribution, but am saving the extra for something else.

Watch on YouTube

[MrDollarBills]

Read on Twitter

?t=9ho5GHcWXkD1TVHWYK4vuQ&s=19

This is a wild read. My god....

[Stannis]

[Stannis]

lol, I'm surprised Jim Cramer is so popular. He also called Sam Bankman-Fried the next JP Morgan.

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=X8TSAC3eOq56pXnpkivwfg

[Stannis]

....

Garbagelo, not tryna be a smartass, but haven't heard from you in a while. '

How you doing in all this?

Any insight of things to come?

[Stannis]

Basically was out of Crypto for a months ago. I was only in Bitcoin and Polkadot though, so not much. I pretty much broke even (maybe minor loss). I was dumb though. I never took profits at the top because I didn't want to do the tax forms lol. I said I was going to hold for years, which obviously did not happen haha.

Stocks...

I got holdings in $BOIL just as a natural gas play. I will probably sell this before the end of the year. I've been selling covered calls on these which nets me a nice premium.

I have put options on $VGK (Europe ETF). With a Republican Congress, I'm guessing Ukraine funding will be less. Overall, a split government and gridlock won't be helpful for Europe.

Swung $TLT a few times. Made 7% gain from commons. Sold and decided to buy puts for another 10% gainer.

Picked up $WOOF as a defensive play. As well as $CARR and $BALL

Puts on $MCD because it's overvalued.

I have puts on solar stocks, but those are not doing good lol. Solar stocks been rocketing for several months now.

I'm still DCAing in my 401k/Roth/HSA with regular index funds and blue chips. No options or speculative plays here, except for GBTC which is a tiny position.

I also added bond indexes for my 401k.

[MrDollarBills]

lol, I'm surprised Jim Cramer is so popular. He also called Sam Bankman-Fried the next JP Morgan.

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=X8TSAC3eOq56pXnpkivwfg

Whatever Cramer says, go in the opposite direction

[br7knicks]

lol, I'm surprised Jim Cramer is so popular. He also called Sam Bankman-Fried the next JP Morgan.

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=X8TSAC3eOq56pXnpkivwfg

my dad was very old school and smart with his money. despite making less than the median income of the US, he recently retired just fine.


his advice was always do the opposite of Cramer. it paid off for him.

[br7knicks]

if there's someone who can tell me that i've **** up, or that i'm ****, please let me know.

i have a few Puts that i've Sold on MDGL, set to expire December 16th.

i have 2 @ $50.00, 2 @ $45.00

i didn't want to get too overzealous. should be worth around ~$4,500 if they don't reach the strike prices.

i've tried researching the company a bit. it doesn't seem to drop to those strike prices. even if they do, due to the premium i've collected, i'll still make a profit EVEN if it gets down to around $40 by December 16th


am I ****?

[br7knicks]

i know you're not supposed to sell Puts during a recession and bear market, but i wanted to give them a shot. i've been doing okay.

normally, my goal is to get $100-200 per week. mostly, i've been hitting the $300-400 mark.


i've been using https://www.barchart.com/options/naked-puts

i research a bunch of the companies, and usually go more conservative than some of the ones on the list.

i've been mainly using MSTR, SI, COIN, UPST, MARA, and T

but i stumbled upon MDGL and wanted to give them a try

[HarthorneWingo]

Submitted for your consideration.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=glHuejhrfCXOTapYH3hi-A

[br7knicks]

Submitted for your consideration.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=glHuejhrfCXOTapYH3hi-A

bill maher had something a few months ago about this. mocking millennials (me) and gen Z. saying that we're all about the environment, and that we say boomers are the ones who have ruined it.

yet, crypto mining sucks up a ridiculous amount of energy.

so this tweet is very much on point. everything sucks up energy, in our current economic environment. the key is to find efficient, safe ****.


but if you want to make money, XLE (i got out, way too early), or anything in energy is where to stay - it's been killing it the last 2 years.

plus, i suggest watching a guy named CoffeeZilla on youtube. he's not a financial guy. but he pushes back on a lot of people nowadays. he has been diving deep into how FTX, and almost all crypto (aside from BTC, ETH, and MAYBE a few others) are ponzi schemes.

[Garbagelo]

....

Garbagelo, not tryna be a smartass, but haven't heard from you in a while. '

How you doing in all this?

Any insight of things to come?

I lost everything

It's pretty much over for me

Not a trading thing either, you can DM me if u want

[Stannis]

....

Garbagelo, not tryna be a smartass, but haven't heard from you in a while. '

How you doing in all this?

Any insight of things to come?

I lost everything

It's pretty much over for me

Not a trading thing either, you can DM me if u want

Damn bro, really sorry to hear this

[br7knicks]

great video that should help you about the next recession that's coming. we just got out of a small one a few months ago, this one looks like it'll be bigger.

Watch on YouTube

i'm learning more about the inverted yield curve, which has accurately predicted every recession since the 80s

[aq_ua]

great video that should help you about the next recession that's coming. we just got out of a small one a few months ago, this one looks like it'll be bigger.

Watch on YouTube

i'm learning more about the inverted yield curve, which has accurately predicted every recession since the 80s

I think you have to think about the yield curve in the context of inflation and inflation expectations. The Fed is raising short term interest rates (this is the only part of the curve they directly influence) in order to counter the quick rise in inflation. If the market believes the Fed will be successful, then it will assume rates will come down as inflation comes down - essentially that inflation is transitory after all. It does not necessary mean the market believes a recession is coming - which could be the other reason the Fed reduces interest rates. Either way, the yield curve is just about market expectations and speculation, not a fortune teller's accurate prediction of the future, and the yield curve can always just quickly flip the other way.

[br7knicks]

great video that should help you about the next recession that's coming. we just got out of a small one a few months ago, this one looks like it'll be bigger.

Watch on YouTube

i'm learning more about the inverted yield curve, which has accurately predicted every recession since the 80s

I think you have to think about the yield curve in the context of inflation and inflation expectations. The Fed is raising short term interest rates (this is the only part of the curve they directly influence) in order to counter the quick rise in inflation. If the market believes the Fed will be successful, then it will assume rates will come down as inflation comes down - essentially that inflation is transitory after all. It does not necessary mean the market believes a recession is coming - which could be the other reason the Fed reduces interest rates. Either way, the yield curve is just about market expectations and speculation, not a fortune teller's accurate prediction of the future, and the yield curve can always just quickly flip the other way.

no one, and nothing, can accurately depict anything with the market. i've been doing a lot in t-bills due to their increase in short term rates.

we'll see if the fed's decisions will keep the US from hitting a recession. i hope so, but very doubtful.

[HarthorneWingo]

great video that should help you about the next recession that's coming. we just got out of a small one a few months ago, this one looks like it'll be bigger.

Watch on YouTube

i'm learning more about the inverted yield curve, which has accurately predicted every recession since the 80s

I think you have to think about the yield curve in the context of inflation and inflation expectations. The Fed is raising short term interest rates (this is the only part of the curve they directly influence) in order to counter the quick rise in inflation. If the market believes the Fed will be successful, then it will assume rates will come down as inflation comes down - essentially that inflation is transitory after all. It does not necessary mean the market believes a recession is coming - which could be the other reason the Fed reduces interest rates. Either way, the yield curve is just about market expectations and speculation, not a fortune teller's accurate prediction of the future, and the yield curve can always just quickly flip the other way.

no one, and nothing, can accurately depict anything with the market. i've been doing a lot in t-bills due to their increase in short term rates.

we'll see if the fed's decisions will keep the US from hitting a recession. i hope so, but very doubtful.

But we are seeing a trend of inflation declining over the last, I dunno. 3-4 months? Maybe more? The economy is otherwise strong. The feds increase in the % rate has worked. The remaining parts of inflation - that we can't seem to budge - are due to price gauging by corporations. Chicken/turkey meat, the vast price increase is due to the avian flue. Gas prices, ask Saudi Arabia.

[br7knicks]

I think you have to think about the yield curve in the context of inflation and inflation expectations. The Fed is raising short term interest rates (this is the only part of the curve they directly influence) in order to counter the quick rise in inflation. If the market believes the Fed will be successful, then it will assume rates will come down as inflation comes down - essentially that inflation is transitory after all. It does not necessary mean the market believes a recession is coming - which could be the other reason the Fed reduces interest rates. Either way, the yield curve is just about market expectations and speculation, not a fortune teller's accurate prediction of the future, and the yield curve can always just quickly flip the other way.

no one, and nothing, can accurately depict anything with the market. i've been doing a lot in t-bills due to their increase in short term rates.

we'll see if the fed's decisions will keep the US from hitting a recession. i hope so, but very doubtful.

But we are seeing a trend of inflation declining over the last, I dunno. 3-4 months? Maybe more? The economy is otherwise strong. The feds increase in the % rate has worked. The remaining parts of inflation - that we can't seem to budge - are due to price gauging by corporations. Chicken/turkey meat, the vast price increase is due to the avian flue. Gas prices, ask Saudi Arabia.

hopefully this country will continue to make the harsh, but smart and necessary, decisions to bring inflation to the goal of 2%

[aq_ua]

no one, and nothing, can accurately depict anything with the market. i've been doing a lot in t-bills due to their increase in short term rates.

we'll see if the fed's decisions will keep the US from hitting a recession. i hope so, but very doubtful.

But we are seeing a trend of inflation declining over the last, I dunno. 3-4 months? Maybe more? The economy is otherwise strong. The feds increase in the % rate has worked. The remaining parts of inflation - that we can't seem to budge - are due to price gauging by corporations. Chicken/turkey meat, the vast price increase is due to the avian flue. Gas prices, ask Saudi Arabia.

hopefully this country will continue to make the harsh, but smart and necessary, decisions to bring inflation to the goal of 2%

The history of where the 2% target comes from is pretty interesting - basically an off the cuff remark by a New Zealand central banker.

https://qz.com/2022696/where-did-the-feds-2-percent-inflation-target-come-from

2% is quite arbitrary, and only relatively recently adopted as an official Fed policy by Bernanke. Which is to say, there’s no reason why the Fed might decide 3% is good enough.