Wait 'til next year!

[HeavyP]

- Adam Jones must play every day in LF
- Shift Raul to 1B / RF / DH in that Order
- Resign Jose Guillen play him in RF
- Leave Balentien in the minors for one more year, then replace Guillen with him
- Keep Beltre, he is underpaid for what he is giving the team, especially when you think of how terrible Safeco field is for Right Handed hitters
- I put the best defensive SS 2B combo out there. So for right now that's Lopez and Betancourt. Vidro should never play 2B, especially if Felix is pitching.
- I wish I could pawn off Vidro to anyone that would take him, he has hit Richie Sexson status for me. If Bavasi could get rid of both of them this offseason I would most likely consider it a success.

That's the lineup I run out there everyday. To be honest, we'd probably be right around the 80-85 win mark but then the following offseason we'd have some options.

Ichiro CF
Jones LF
Beltre 3B
Guillen RF
Broussard 1B
Johjima C
Clement / Ibanez DH
Betancourt SS
Lopez 2B

[TheUrbanZealot]

First off I'd like to preface this by saying some of you stat-hounds are just too hard on Jose Vidro. Vidro was easily our most CONSISTENT hitter, and it was his hot hitting w/ Ibanez' power surge in August that got us to the point of nearly winning our division.

In relation to the first point, i'd like to remind you guys that OPS is not the single most important element in baseball. You guys are riding Seattle's individual players' OPS too far into the ground. Yes, OPS is important, but 6 (7 if Colorado loses Monday) of the top 10 teams in OPS aren't even making the playoffs. That includes such bottom feeders as Florida, and Cincinnati. Further, the Mariners finished tied w/ the Angels in OPS, in a much less hitter friendly park, mind you.

Now there are many reasons attributable for the Mariners low OPS (team and individual). Part of it is simply lack of power. The primary reason, however, is that Seattle plays in a park that is just not friendly towards hitters. The reason the Angels work well w/ their relatively so-so OPS is that they play to their teams strengths well. Speed. Moving the runner over. The Mariners don't have much speed at all, and if there is any stadium to play small ball, Safeco Field is it. You'll notice that the teams with the top OPS all have some serious big boppers. Mariners aren't the type of team that will have multiple players w/ 30+ homers. They don't have a slugger that can carry a team like A-Rod. Short of finding some sluggers, the Mariners have to play to their strengths- an opportunistic gap hitting team that takes advantage of a speedster at the top (Ichiro).

Now here are some changes I'd like to see made in 2008 to help steer the M's in the right direction:

1. Philosophy- Mariners right now are a free swinging team that, while produces a good average, doesn't produce enough walks vs. K's. I'd like to see the coaching staff emphasize taking more pitches instead of having the hitters just assume the 1st pitch is going to be a strike (and thus swing away). Mariners got burned too often by falling behind in the count.

2. Coaches- I want the Mariners to get a new 3rd base coach. He seemed to have a free wheel for an arm and had no regard for Mariners' ability to reach home safely. If it's anyone other than Ichiro, Jones, Jimerson or Bloomquist, there really is no need to risk the out at home.

3. Players- There are certain players I want gone, certain players i want moved to another position, and certain players I want added. Trying to be as realistic as possible, here is what I'd like to see the M's field in 2008-

C- Johjima
1B- Vidro?
2B- Lopez
3B- Beltre
SS- Betancourt
LF - Jones
CF- Ichiro
RF- Guillen
DH- Ibanez?

Primary backups: Clement, Bloomquist, Balentien, Morse

SP- ???
SP- Hernandez
SP- Washburn
SP- Rowland Smith
SP- Batista

Bullpen: Sherrill, Putz, Morrow, O Flaherty, Green, Lowe, ??

As you can see, the only questions I believe we have are 1st base, DH, #1 Starter and another reliable middle/long reliever. I don't want to lose Vidro's reliability even if it means a lower OPS, however if we can upgrade him, great. Ibanez may start off quicker next year so i'd have no problems with him as the DH, though I'd like someone that has a little more pop (Balentien could be the future here). The Adam Jones era needs to begin now, and he needs to hit out of the #9 hole to relieve pressure from him, no matter how talented and #2-ish he is. It's apparent that Sexson is done-dada. He will have a little bit of a rebound, but he needs to go to a smaller park to do so. Rowland-Smith showed me the most of all of our young relievers last year. I really think he could be a reliable 2nd lefty starter. He has a big time curve and came on in some pressure situations for us.

Our most glaring weakness easily is getting a #1 starter. Hernandez, while talented, is not ready to be that, nor should be pressured into that role. We need a virtual lock for a win every 5 days w/ a reliable veteran starter to really catapult us into the upper echelon. I mean if we could compete and be 1 game out in August with people like Ramirez and Weaver while the Angels had an injured former Cy Young as their 5th starter than we really aren't too far away. Losing Weaver and Ramirez unreliability while adding the potential of Rowland Smith and a quality All-Star SP will take us a long way next year.

I think Beltre's confidence and comfort is starting to come around, so I think he is ready for a HUGE year next year. X-factor to our team? Jose Lopez. If he can make the same offensive jump that Y-Bet made this year from last year, then we could potentially have the most dangerous 7-8-9 hole in Lopez-Betancourt-Jones in all of baseball...

Commence feedback...

[Basketball Jesus]

First off I'd like to preface this by saying some of you stat-hounds are just too hard on Jose Vidro. Vidro was easily our most CONSISTENT hitter, and it was his hot hitting w/ Ibanez' power surge in August that got us to the point of nearly winning our division.

If you look at [url=http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerSplits?categoryId=85621]Vidro

[TheUrbanZealot]

That

[Basketball Jesus]

Hmm. Yuni batted what, around .290? He was also one of are most clutch hitters (didn't he have back to back walk off hits?)

His season

[Ex-hippie]

First off I'd like to preface this by saying some of you stat-hounds are just too hard on Jose Vidro. Vidro was easily our most CONSISTENT hitter, and it was his hot hitting w/ Ibanez' power surge in August that got us to the point of nearly winning our division.

In relation to the first point, i'd like to remind you guys that OPS is not the single most important element in baseball. You guys are riding Seattle's individual players' OPS too far into the ground. Yes, OPS is important, but 6 (7 if Colorado loses Monday) of the top 10 teams in OPS aren't even making the playoffs. That includes such bottom feeders as Florida, and Cincinnati. Further, the Mariners finished tied w/ the Angels in OPS, in a much less hitter friendly park, mind you.

Now there are many reasons attributable for the Mariners low OPS (team and individual). Part of it is simply lack of power. The primary reason, however, is that Seattle plays in a park that is just not friendly towards hitters. The reason the Angels work well w/ their relatively so-so OPS is that they play to their teams strengths well. Speed. Moving the runner over. The Mariners don't have much speed at all, and if there is any stadium to play small ball, Safeco Field is it. You'll notice that the teams with the top OPS all have some serious big boppers. Mariners aren't the type of team that will have multiple players w/ 30+ homers. They don't have a slugger that can carry a team like A-Rod. Short of finding some sluggers, the Mariners have to play to their strengths- an opportunistic gap hitting team that takes advantage of a speedster at the top (Ichiro).

Just some quick responses, although Jesus has been my savior on these points:

(1) If you actually took the time to read this thread in full, you will see that I already discussed the effect of park factors; this is why OPS is refined further into another stat called OPS+ (which I discussed in detail about Richie Sexson).

(2) I never said that OPS was a be-all, end-all statistic. I should have an auto-text button for this... here goes: OPS is a quick and dirty measure that enables one to eyeball a players' productivity with the bat. If you're in the 750 range in a pitcher's park, it means, roughly, that you're barely adequate in centerfield or at third base, a solid contributor as a middle infielder or a catcher, and a liability at first base, a corner outfield spot or DH. (That's you, Jose Vidro.) No, it is not a perfect measure, but I do not have the time to write an entire doctoral thesis about the M's offensive contributions this year. A couple of times I've posted info about better stats like VORP and EqA, but those are buried on BP's website and you need some time to get them, whereas OPS is readily available on baseball-reference.com. OPS has also gone mainstream and is more accessible to most audiences.

(3) I discussed other issues as well, notably defense.

(4) Whatever the pros and cons of using OPS as a metric, it beats the crap out of batting average. Yuni's .290 BA tells us very little about what he contributed offensively this year and even less about what he will contribute offensively next year -- which, after all, is the subject of this thread.

(5) Here's another item I should have on auto-text; I mean, I was reciting this 15 years ago, back when rec.sport.baseball was in its infancy. Here goes: whenever a person wants to claim that a player is better than the numbers show, he brings up "clutchness." It's amazing how rarely this is actually true. Although the better thinking on the subject these days is that "clutchness" does, in fact, exist, it's rare enough that people shouldn't be tossing it out there without specific data backing it up. (Yes, I said "data." Don't be scared of them big numbers those "stat hounds" keep pushing.)

(6) The M's aren't the kind of team that can have two players with 30+ homers? Oh, you're right... to find a year when that happened, you have to go all the way back to 2006!

(7) If you're going to mention park factors and also that "bottom-feeding" Cincy was in the top 10 in OPS... well... see the inconsistency? (For the record, Cincy had a team OPS+ of 98.) Also, for the record, scoring runs is exactly one-half of what's required to win baseball games; the other half is preventing runs, and Cincy's pitching was also mediocre, with a team ERA of 4.95 and an ERA+ of 96.

(8) You can manipulate stats however you want (I'm referring here to the point that 6 of the top 10 OPS teams missed the postseason). But here are some more telling facts. In the AL, six out of six teams with an OPS+ greater than 100 had at least 88 wins, and all six were playoff contenders (New York, Boston, Seattle, Anaheim, Cleveland, Detroit). In fact, those were the only playoff contenders in the AL. Over in the NL, five of six teams with an OPS+ greater than 100 had winning records and were playoff contenders: Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Colorado. The other was Florida, which had horrible pitching all year (team ERA+ of 86, worst in the NL by a good margin). Again with that "preventing runs" team.

(9) If the M's offseason moves are in the direction of less power, more speed and more general out-making, so help me, I'm finding a new team to root for.

(10) Lists always look better when they contain 10 items instead of 9.

[TheUrbanZealot]

Wow. I am going to go out on a limb and say both BJ and Hippie are still smarting from this season's meltdown. Veiled optimism aside, I understand the #'s game is the 1st thing fans are going to analyze into the ground.

I won't keep going back and forth defending players we will just agree to disagree on, rather, I'll try to stay on a realistic slant:

Please tell me your ideas for a replacement SS, DH, and 1B? Mind you, you have to stay within the confines of reality (more specifically, fiscal reality). I mean it would be great if we had the old Richie, the FA year boon that was Beltre, the Minor League player of the Year that was Jeremy Reed, and the future potential of Adam Jones right now. The problem is it's all a dream.

We have what, 20 million per commited to Ich, a and 12-15 million each for Sex and Belt. Do you think management is going to shell out 20 million for a Hanley Ramirez type SS or Prince Fielder type 1b/DH? I have to take the realist approach because it's a pipe dream thinking we can just replace our guys w/ better productivity at the same price.

Also, what can't be understated is the fact that EVERY mariner contributed to a universal collapse. Even Ichiro became a strikeout machine which was very uncharacterstic.

You want more power for the dimensions of Safeco? Let's see, are we getting A-Rod? No. Prince? No. Holliday? No. Pena? No. I just don't see that being a realistic option, further it's counter-productive based on our park type. The team we closest resemble ironically is probably the Angels, minus their great pitching staff. I say we play on our strengths and build on that rather than try to make us a big bopping club w/ no balance.

We aren't that far away guys, had we had the Angels reliable SP, we'd be the best team in baseball...

[Ex-hippie]

At 1B, I believe replacing Sexson with Broussard is addition by subtraction or at worst a lateral move. My original point was that if we can move Sexson's contract, we can clear quite a bit of salary to sign someone else. My first thought was to use that money on an Adam Dunn, who would thrive in Safeco (at least compared to the righties we're overloaded with now), but if we want to spend it on starting pitchers as you wish to do, that would also work. My only hesitation on starting pitchers is bang for the buck: in today's market, if you want the equivalent of a Washburn or a Batista (or a Jason Marquis or Jeff Suppan or Gil Meche or....) then you'll have to shell out close to eight figures. And you might not significantly upgrade your rotation over what Baek or Rowland-Smith or Feierabend or Morrow can do.

As for the middle infield, Jesus has mentioned the surplus in Tampa Bay. Another idea I mentioned in a different thread would be looking to Atlanta, which has three solid middle-infield starters (Edgar Renteria, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar) and two more good utility guys who could start in many places (Willy Aybar and Martin Prado). They're considering moving Johnson to the outfield, diminishing his value significantly, so I thought they might look to trade. I'm not talking about getting A-Rod; I'm talking about getting someone who contributes more than Lopez and Betancourt, which is a pretty low threshold.

[TheUrbanZealot]

At 1B, I believe replacing Sexson with Broussard is addition by subtraction or at worst a lateral move. My original point was that if we can move Sexson's contract, we can clear quite a bit of salary to sign someone else. My first thought was to use that money on an Adam Dunn, who would thrive in Safeco (at least compared to the righties we're overloaded with now), but if we want to spend it on starting pitchers as you wish to do, that would also work. My only hesitation on starting pitchers is bang for the buck: in today's market, if you want the equivalent of a Washburn or a Batista (or a Jason Marquis or Jeff Suppan or Gil Meche or....) then you'll have to shell out close to eight figures. And you might not significantly upgrade your rotation over what Baek or Rowland-Smith or Feierabend or Morrow can do.

As for the middle infield, Jesus has mentioned the surplus in Tampa Bay. Another idea I mentioned in a different thread would be looking to Atlanta, which has three solid middle-infield starters (Edgar Renteria, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar) and two more good utility guys who could start in many places (Willy Aybar and Martin Prado). They're considering moving Johnson to the outfield, diminishing his value significantly, so I thought they might look to trade. I'm not talking about getting A-Rod; I'm talking about getting someone who contributes more than Lopez and Betancourt, which is a pretty low threshold.

Hey, I'm all for replacing Sexson w/ Broussard, but will that really have the impact people on here seem to be clamoring for (big bopper at 1B)?

I heavily doubt any team is going to take Sexson and his huge contract coming off an absolutely inexcusable/horrid year not to mention coming off an injury. Even if they did, you can be sure we'd eat 90% of it.

As far as SP I agree. We might as well stick w/ our youngsters rather than shelling out 10+ million on a Miguel Batista type. I see loads of potential particularly in Rowland-Smith. He has a devastating curveball and he can't do any worse than Ramirez or Weaver did.

As far as the middle infield, do you think on of ATL's backup infielders will really make THAT big a difference over what we have now? I'd be more inclined to bank on an improved Betancourt (both defensively and maybe a little offensively) rather than try to shore up our defense. I mean come on man, Betancourt isn't THAT atrocious. He botched some plays, yeah, but he saved a TON of hits as well. He is a high risk/reward type of player and I'd take him and his few botched plays but with his saving of many hits over a "reliable, steady, below-average-hitting SS".

Still, I have yet to hear of options that can realistically improve our infield w/out us losing production.

I think one of the biggest problems we had was an extreme variance in consistency. I.e., we had some players that were hot before the all-star break and just went south. We had some players that were hot after the all-star break. If we could have had through the whole year:

- pre all-star Lopez
- pre all-star Kenji
- post all-star Vidro
- post all-star Ibanez
- First 2 game Felix
and most importantly:
- pre all-star bullpen

I think we could have had the 6/7 extra wins that would have gotten us in. We just had too many fluxes in consistency.

I bank on next year being more consistent as a unit throughout the year...

[Ex-hippie]

Well anyway, here's one thing I think we can all agree with: the front office should strive to maximize value. That is, if the team has a chance to get a good player for a good price, it should jump at the opportunity. That seems like common sense to me, but it's not Bill Bavasi's view. Last year, Bavasi went into the postseason determined to bolster the starting rotation. His solution was to trade a very good reliever for a very bad starting pitcher, then dish out megabucks for a couple more so-so starting pitchers. That's what happens when you set out to fill needs -- you reach. It's the same thing that happens in the draft in other sports (passing on Andre Igoudala for Rafael Araujo is part of the same phenomenon as trading Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez). I believe there's such a thing as a premium for positions of scarcity, but only to a point. Trading better players for worse players is not maximizing value. Spending $10 million for mediocrity at one position when you can spend $5 million for a solid player at another position is not maximizing value. Good teams maximize value. Do we all at least agree on that point?

[TheUrbanZealot]

Well anyway, here's one thing I think we can all agree with: the front office should strive to maximize value. That is, if the team has a chance to get a good player for a good price, it should jump at the opportunity. That seems like common sense to me, but it's not Bill Bavasi's view. Last year, Bavasi went into the postseason determined to bolster the starting rotation. His solution was to trade a very good reliever for a very bad starting pitcher, then dish out megabucks for a couple more so-so starting pitchers. That's what happens when you set out to fill needs -- you reach. It's the same thing that happens in the draft in other sports (passing on Andre Igoudala for Rafael Araujo is part of the same phenomenon as trading Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez). I believe there's such a thing as a premium for positions of scarcity, but only to a point. Trading better players for worse players is not maximizing value. Spending $10 million for mediocrity at one position when you can spend $5 million for a solid player at another position is not maximizing value. Good teams maximize value. Do we all at least agree on that point?

I agree w/ that. I mean the Soriano deal turned out to be ridiculous. Soriano has one of the livest arms in baseball and we trade him for a starting version of his antithesis.

I noticed that Bavasi has made some gambles on players that used to be #1 prospects but were hit by injury: H Ramirez, J Foppert, etc. I'd like to see Bavasi get players who have steadily improved and been consistent rather than players that have 1 or 2 fluke seasons. I can't count how many players we have signed because of fluke seasons (Aurillia, Cirillo, Beltre, Sexson, the list goes on...)

[Ex-hippie]

I wouldn

[Bulltalk]

On a side note, I'd sure as hell take Torre as a manager now over the alternative.

[Basketball Jesus]

Please tell me your ideas for a replacement SS, DH, and 1B? Mind you, you have to stay within the confines of reality (more specifically, fiscal reality). I mean it would be great if we had the old Richie, the FA year boon that was Beltre, the Minor League player of the Year that was Jeremy Reed, and the future potential of Adam Jones right now. The problem is it's all a dream.

For SS: I

[Ex-hippie]

-= original quote snipped =-
Although getting ARod at short again would be the smartest thing this club

[b_roy7]

I don

[Bulltalk]

No way ARod ever comes back to Safeco Field when he's pursuing the home run record.

[The_Child_Prodigy]

One can pray that he comes. I know I want him to but so do 29other teams fans.

[Sweezo]

How right you are. Most Seattle fans aren't too happy with him still though.

Yeah, and as one of those people who booes him when he comes back to Seattle, I'd cheer like a madman if he resigned with the M's. Put him at SS, Yuni at 2B...not bad!

[HeavyP]

Lets say we pay arod 32 million a year for 8 years. We can essentially pay for his salary by 1 finding a taker ANYWHERE for Sexson (14 million), Not Resigning Vidro (8.5M option I believe), Weaver leaving (8.5 million freed up). That's 31 million freed up right there. We can then NOT resign guillen, and start Jones and Balentien. I know we don't want to start two Rookies in the OF, but if it's worth it to get Arod.

CF: Ichiro
LF: Adam Jones
RF: Wladamir Balentien
3b: Adrian Beltre
SS: Alex Rodriguez
2B: Yuni
1B: Broussard / Ibanez Combo
C: Kenji / Burke
DH: Clement / Ibanez or Broussard

Pitching:

Felix
Batista
Washburn
Morrow / Baek / Rowland Smith

Or, we can go try to sign 1 or 2 RP and 1 SP and let these young guys battle out for the last SP spot.