Which 2nd or 3rd year NFL QB, will be this year's standout?

[EthanLikesBBall]

Who will make that step up that Josh Allen made last year?

Lawrence, Fields, Tua, Lance, Hurts? A different player? Why??

[Cactus Jack]

I don't see any of those guys having the same impact as Allen.

Tua will be better under McDaniel & the upgrade in talent around him. I think he takes the biggest leap.

Hurts will improve. Same with Fields.

Similar to Hurts last year, Lance will struggle with consistency.

The Jets are getting a ton of hype. But I was really underwhelmed with Wilson last year. I think turnovers will be an issue for him. He'll struggle the most out of all these guys.

[hermes]

i'll say hurts

[bluejerseyjinx]

Lawrence.

[DOT]

Trevor might not have the best year out of these guys, but he will take the biggest leap

Just because he was pretty bad, statistically, last year but all his problems were exacerbated by the everything which should improve with an actual coach. Like, this video goes into it, but I noticed it at the time, you could see a massive shift between the first 3 games in Trevor's mentality and the last 13 or so

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

He got significantly better at reading and processing defenses because he had to, because when he tried to pull the stuff he did at Clemson, it wasn't working because our receivers sucked and we didn't scheme things correctly. He went from a total gunslinger to much more conservative, which is why he had 5 of his 12 touchdowns through week 3 (and also 7 interceptions). His completion percentage went up, from 54.24% the first 3 to 60.95% the last 14 games, which while still not great, is a big step. While he did get more conservative though, it wasn't a total shift to being gun shy, as he just got better at finding when and where to take the big gamble plays, which we still did way too often, but that was because the rest of the team was so bad

Frankly, we still have a pretty bad receiving core, but it should be better, and having a coach who actually gameplans should help mitigate the problems. I can't tell you how many times guys just ran the wrong routes or had no idea where they were supposed to go. Also, just so many dropped passes, it was ridiculous. I don't think he made more mistakes than any of the other young QBs, but there was no margin for error with him, if he messed up, the team was punished immediately for it

Granted, he does need to improve, but I think for as young as he is, the growth he showed during the season is enough to give me hope about him. I think going from the clear worst supporting cast and coach to just below average supporting cast and at worst a decent coach will be massive for him

[Cactus Jack]

The Jets are getting a ton of hype. But I was really underwhelmed with Wilson last year. I think turnovers will be an issue for him. He'll struggle the most out of all these guys.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[goober]

Zac had all the tools to be good, but he let his head get to him. A lot of really bad things have come out within the state of Utah football circle and I’m really curious as to how the Wilson family kept it so quiet till now.

Zach Wilson is not a good person

[Dr Positivity]

That's a rough pick for Jets. The other pieces were there if they just got a great QB at 2.

[Cactus Jack]

That's a rough pick for Jets. The other pieces were there if they just got a great QB at 2.

That QB class ain't looking so hot. They would have been far better off trading the pick to a team like SF & taken the BPA like Parsons.

[DOT]

Spoiler:

Trevor might not have the best year out of these guys, but he will take the biggest leap

Just because he was pretty bad, statistically, last year but all his problems were exacerbated by the everything which should improve with an actual coach. Like, this video goes into it, but I noticed it at the time, you could see a massive shift between the first 3 games in Trevor's mentality and the last 13 or so

Watch on YouTube

He got significantly better at reading and processing defenses because he had to, because when he tried to pull the stuff he did at Clemson, it wasn't working because our receivers sucked and we didn't scheme things correctly. He went from a total gunslinger to much more conservative, which is why he had 5 of his 12 touchdowns through week 3 (and also 7 interceptions). His completion percentage went up, from 54.24% the first 3 to 60.95% the last 14 games, which while still not great, is a big step. While he did get more conservative though, it wasn't a total shift to being gun shy, as he just got better at finding when and where to take the big gamble plays, which we still did way too often, but that was because the rest of the team was so bad

Frankly, we still have a pretty bad receiving core, but it should be better, and having a coach who actually gameplans should help mitigate the problems. I can't tell you how many times guys just ran the wrong routes or had no idea where they were supposed to go. Also, just so many dropped passes, it was ridiculous. I don't think he made more mistakes than any of the other young QBs, but there was no margin for error with him, if he messed up, the team was punished immediately for it

Granted, he does need to improve, but I think for as young as he is, the growth he showed during the season is enough to give me hope about him. I think going from the clear worst supporting cast and coach to just below average supporting cast and at worst a decent coach will be massive for him

So far through 11 games, this is looking pretty accurate

Trevor's improved across the board significantly, not only in terms of volume but in terms of efficiency as well. And despite what Chris Simms will tell you, no, that's not just because we're having him do a ton of screens and dump offs. His intended air yards per pass attempt is slightly down from last year, from 7.9 to 7.4, but he's still about average in that regard, which is really neither good nor bad. He's higher up than Mahomes, Brady, Burrow, and Herbert, and the top 4 are Mariota, Tua, Russell Wilson, and Justin Fields, of which Tua is the only one having a good throwing season. So neither here nor there

Something I find interesting though, is that despite dealing with about the same drop rate (5.7% last year to 5.6% this year), he's gone from 5th in the league to 12th, and I don't feel like it's as much of an issue, because while I don't have the numbers for this, I think last year there were a lot more drops on crucial downs, like 3rd downs which killed drives, instead of 1st or 2nd which he's been able to overcome this year. Also of note, his bad throw percentage has gone down from 20.5% last year (4th worst in the league) to 14.5% this year (17th best in the league out of 35 eligible QBs)

Strangely though, his on target percentage is down from 71.3% last year to 69.4% this year, but what's really interesting is he was 2nd worst in the league last year but is now 15th (technically 13th if you want to not count Wentz or Flacco)

He's not an elite QB, not really, but I'd say he's taken the biggest step of any QB this year in terms of passing. Fields has arguably improved the most all around, but I think Trevor's solidly in the 15-20 range for QBs. Solid, which is a huge step up from arguably the worst in the league.

[Duke4life831]

I will admit when Im wrong (especially after I buried Rick Spielman for his track record for QBs the other day haha). I was really high on Wilson during the draft. Its been flat out painful watching him try and throw the football at the NFL level.

Out of this group I would say Lawrence and Fields are 1a/1b for me, then Tua.

I probably give Lawrence the small lead mainly because of his surrounding pieces. He has a below average offensive line with some of the worst options to throw the ball in the league. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones as your 1 and 2, with a below average offensive line, thats a pretty rough situation. And with that, he's been pretty damn solid this year. Im mainly speaking just from an eye test perspective, I dont know why but I have caught a good amount of Jags games this year and Lawrence looks solid. He just needs a legit #1 option and a solid TE to throw to over the middle.

Hurts has just been damn good, nothing really else to say. I do think he has a huge benefit of playing behind the best OL (IMO) and has AJ as a weapon. He also had Goedert over the middle who is a super solid option, I also think his passing has taken a slight step back without Goedert being there. But he has been super reliable, accurate, and mixing pass and rushing very very well.

Tua has been fantastic this year without a doubt, but he is also in a position that 95% of QBs could only dream of. He has IMO one of the best offensive minds in the game (really wanted Minny to hire McDaniel, until Kevin came along) and he has elite weapons. But ya with that said, Teddy Checkdown didnt look so great in that offense, so its not like any QB can just walk in there and look elite like Tua has.

[DOT]

I probably give Lawrence the small lead mainly because of his surrounding pieces. He has a below average offensive line with some of the worst options to throw the ball in the league. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones as your 1 and 2, with a below average offensive line, thats a pretty rough situation. And with that, he's been pretty damn solid this year. Im mainly speaking just from an eye test perspective, I dont know why but I have caught a good amount of Jags games this year and Lawrence looks solid. He just needs a legit #1 option and a solid TE to throw to over the middle.

Some fans think Calvin Ridley is gonna solve everything for us, but I'm not sure

We still need secondary help, and I might be a Kelee Ringo fan, but I've become more a fan of saying screw the defense in the draft and just going for weapons. Draft Johnston out of TCU with our 1st round pick and maybe Darnell Washington in the 2nd, whoever the top TE is

That way we have another option if Ridley doesn't pan out, but it would give us a potentially lethal group of skill position guys. Johnston as the big jump ball guy, Ridley for speed, and Kirk in the slot, with Washington who I believe is a solid if not spectacular pass catcher as well as being a good blocking TE to give versatility that we don't have, since our TEs can really only do one but not both.

[hermes]

i know i picked hurts and he's playing well, but don't take this as a sign that i know what i'm talking about in most cases