Lou Fan wrote:No-more-rings wrote:Lou Fan wrote: Curry's drop off in the playoffs is such a dumb myth. He drops off less than the average superstar. People really need to find a new slant. Plus we were talking peak here so if you think there's drop off in general fine but there wasn't in the 17 PS so we don't need to talk about it.
Is it really such a good idea to just use one year for peak? Because if you're really using a 17 or so game sample of Curry in 2017 to establish his peak, we can use Lebron's 2009 playoffs which blows Curry out of the water.
Curry has definitely not kept up his regular season play into the playoffs on average.
2015-2022 RS: 27/5/6.4 3.1 tov 26.4 PER 64.2 ts% 8.3 BPM
2015-2022 PS: 27.2/5.6/5.9 3.4 tov 23.9 PER 61.4 ts% 7.5 BPM
It's not a massive drop, but noticeable. People can't just close their eyes and pretend it doesn't exist. At least on paper, Curry's playoff performance doesn't scream GOAT no matter how you want to look at it. It looks in line with what you expect from a typical top 15 or 20 all time player.
Lou Fan wrote:Curry plays a role that allows others to be maximized and he has also often put himself in positions that aren't ideal for his game as an effort to help his teammates. 2014/The KD years/2021 are pretty obvious examples.
If he's as portable as everyone claims he should be able to handle and exceed at any role right?
I don't know how the KD years aren't ideal scenarios for him. You couldn't ask for any more talent, and he was basically gift wrapped another top 20 all time player at his peak after losing the championship to Lebron.
Lou Fan wrote: LeBron on the other hand has only ever played one way and it's in a way that's hard for most players to fit with. Of course he's been tremendously effective with it but if we look at say a +8 from Lebron and a +8 from Curry on RAPM (and we assume it's accurate) you want Curry's type of plus 8 every time. I think that's pretty obvious. My point there is that impact stats naturally paint LeBron in a better light than Curry because of context.
Eh I mean that's basically saying Curry is better because he does less. Outside of 2017, the Warriors were not appreciably better than Lebron's best teams without even getting into context.
Lou Fan wrote:Do you really disagree? You don't think Curry is a great leader? I mean come on I feel like this is pretty much universally recognized.
Leadership is hard to quantify, Curry leads with his great play just like any other all time great does. Is Curry someone to pep talk and motivate people on the bench or demand excellence from players? I don't see it. If anything Draymond is more their vocal leader, even if he can be boneheaded at times.
Lou Fan wrote:When did I say Steph and Bron where comparable defenders. If I think Steph is a considerably better offensive player and also think that their peaks are close than what does that imply. LeBron is a considerably better defensive player. This is not hard stuff my man. I get it you think LBJ is better. Totally reasonable. Just don't understand why you can't even acknowledge that there is an argument to be made for the contrary so much so that you attack me for making the case when I've been respectful and cordial.
I won't speak for anyone else, but when someone makes an unpopular claim like "Curry is comparable to peak Lebron", the onus should be more on you since that's something that's far from universally accepted.
The most sensible way to judge who had the better peak is, who really gives you a better chance at a championship in a vacuum, considering what we've seen from both, Lebron seems like the clear answer. If Lebron outperforming Curry in every one of their finals while having to carry a bigger load and also go against a better defense isn't enough I don't know what is.
Fair enough I agree using a single postseason as an indication of anything is sketchy at best but I was just using it as an example of a year where Steph did not drop off in the postseason. Again this whole narrative is predicated on the 2016 season where he was injured in the playoffs. Take that season out and let's see the numbers. Even with it in those numbers are very much in line with the drop off you would expect from facing tougher teams/schemes/intensity that comes from playoff basketball. Again Curry's drop off is less than the historical average from superstar players.
Did he not succeed in those roles? He absolutely did. Just was making the point that he's been repeatedly willing to sacrifice what's best for him for the benefit of his teammates or to try new things. Just look at the absolutely massive jump his numbers (box and impact) after the Warriors fazed out Wiseman in 21.
Yeah obviously KD made it easier to win and made his team better but they also allowed KD to play a lot more ball stopping iso hero ball than would be ideal for Curry/the team. Obviously it didn't matter because they were so talented they could win no matter what.
Not sure you understand the claim I was making there. And yes having the same impact while "doing less" is better because it allows others to "do more" and maximize their impact alongside you.
Sure and what I said was RAPM/RPM view them as equals or even slightly favoring Curry over the last 8 years and LeBron's clearly a better defender so for that to be the case Curry must be a clearly better offensive player. If you believe RAPM/RPM are good stats (you don't have to) then there is a case to be made for Curry being the better offensive player on that basis. That's all I said. I wasn't making some grand case with a bunch of data and logic I don't really care if people agree I was just saying there was a case to be made. Just cuz that one dude flipped out and acted like it was this high stakes thing doesn't mean that's what I was committed to.
So, a few things. Your opinion is valid, although I guess me being someone who more agrees with the other side, should probably provide some evidence.
People on RealGM (myself included), have a tendency to really emphasize playoff performance over RS indicators. And with that being said, it does seem as if Lebron does have a sizeable advantage over Curry in playoff performance.
For example, in terms of single year peaks
Lebron Single-Year PS Peaks
Backpicks BPM-12
PIPM-7.46
RAPTOR-16.07
PREDATOR-15.82
AuPM/G-8.7
BPM-17.5
Societal Impact (s0ciety's metric)-11.1
Steph Single-Year PS Peaks
Backpicks BPM-8.7
PIPM-6.53
RAPTOR-12.58
PREDATOR-12.38
AuPM/G-7.5
BPM-11.9
Societal Impact (s0ciety's metric)-7.1
And then, if we can take a look at multi-year PS Impact
Lebron's Multi-Year PS numbers and Peaks
3-year PS LEBRON-7.50
5-year BPM-10.83
3-year Backpicks BPM-9
5-year Backpicks BPM All-time Rank-#2
3-year AuPM/G-7.6
3-year PS On/Off-21.4
15-20 PIPM-7.37
14-18 Playoff RAPM: 5.18
15-19 Playoff RAPM: 4.96
Steph's Multi-Year PS numbers and Peaks
3-year PS LEBRON-6.89
5-year BPM-7.83
3-year Backpicks BPM-6.9
5-year Backpicks BPM All-time Rank (Doesn't include 22 PS but doesn't make difference for this comparison)-#14
3-year AuPM/G-5.7
3-year PS On/Off-18.3
15-20 PIPM-3.95
14-18 Playoff RAPM: 3.62
151-19 Playoff RAPM: 3.84
Finally looking at their Careers as PS Performers
Lebron Career PS Numbers
Bryan Spanglers' 1998-2018 Playoff RAPM-7.584197
Google Spreadsheets 1998-2019 Playoff RAPM-7.66
Ahmed Cheema's 1997-2021 Playoff RAPM-5.873
Steph Career PS Numbers
Bryan Spanglers' 1998-2018 Playoff RAPM- 6.502956
Google Spreadsheets 1998-2019 Playoff RAPM-4.38
Ahmed Cheema's 1997-2021 Playoff RAPM-4.117
As always, it depends on what you make of these numbers, but there does seem to be a consistent trend where Lebron comes out ahead against Steph in PS numbers and seemingly by multiple standard deviations (haven't calculated it, I'm just eyeing this). I think people believe there are just certain parts of Lebron's game that translates better to the PS, and that shows up with whether you look at 1 year-stretches or multi-year periods of time. However, if you place superior emphasis on the RS and or believe PS performance often doesn't sway much from RS performance for stars, then these numbers are certainly closer.
Also, just to address, the point of how Curry being willing to defer, affected his box-score totals, I completely understand. Playing with more talent usually means having to defer and not have your box-score totals look as pretty. Although, I would argue to keep in mind, that Lebron probably went through something similar himself.
Right. And in mind my, whose to say that Lebron was stiff in adapting his game. Lebron certainly had more aggression as a scorer when Wade or Kyrie was out.
LeBron in the playoffs with Wade off the court from 2012-14:
▫️ 36.5 PTS/75 on 65.2 TS%
▫️ 7.7 REB/75 and 7.8 AST/75
-Led a +13.4 rORTG offense
▫️ Led a +18.1 NRTG outside of garbage time
(stats opponent and inflation adjusted)
And if you want a bigger sample size that has the RS:
12-'14 Lebron without Wade on the floor:
34.4 IA PTS/75 (4th Ever)
+9.5 rTS%
7.2 IA AST/75
39.5% from 3
67.7 Points Generated (2nd Ever)
(3700 Minutes Played Sample)
LeBron adjusted scoring w/o kyrie (16-18) playoffs:
•33.8 PTS on +8.6 rTS%
These teams were well served with Wade and Kyrie being there, but that's the point. Pretty much almost all players who heavily create their own shot sacrifice some scoring volume for the good of the team in the long-run.
Lebron's scoring numbers look much prettier here than they do normally when he didn't have to defer as much.
Once again, your opinion is totally valid, I am just shedding some light on my thinking and why I think Lebron ahead of Curry in terms of peak personally.
