Jamal Murray is the Weak Link

[TheShow2021]

Statistical arguments:

A) Jamal Murray’s career BPM 0.2. per season (Jokic 9.0)

B) Career TS% of .554, high of .592 bubble season

C) Iso ppp for 18-19, 19-20, 20-21 seasons:
.83, .85, .78. (out of top 50 players for iso possessions per game in 20-21, only Levert was worse…)

D) Pick and roll ball handler ppp for 18-19, 19-20, 20-21:
.87, .87, .98

(For reference I believe average ppp in half court is ~.95)
———

And he has likely peaked, the worst likely ahead considering the injury and no bubble: TS% is .499 so far this year.

Watch the highlights, and see Murray get uncontested five footers because both defenders are guarding Jokic on their pick and roll.

I see Murray get easy backdoor layups off a Jokic pass.

Jokic gets double teamed and Murray shoots a wide open 3 pointer.

With the gravity and passing of Jokic, Murray has the golden ticket on offense. Considering his awful defense, considering his usage, one would think that Murray should be at least .600 TS% to merit his massive contract.

Without Jokic’s help you can see his atrocious iso numbers.
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In conclusion, he is one of the worst contracts in the league and Denver has virtually no chance at a title having all that money locked up on a mediocre player. Prime Lebron couldn't carry that empty contract.

[dan-man]

I haven't been watching the nuggets, but this guy was absolutely balling before he blew his ACL. Maybe you just need to be more patient ser.

[twozeroMM]

Give him some time to get his confidence and legs back. I wouldn't sell your stock on him just yet.

[BlzMwt]

He's only 25 and it takes time to come back from an injury like this.

To say he's peaked is a bold statement. Maybe the injury would cause him to have peaked athletically but he can always improve his skills

[Duke4life831]

I don’t think he’s a weak link. But I do think there can be a legit debate on if he’s good enough to be a 2nd option for a contending team. This also isn’t a hot take on how he’s been playing this year, I’ve thought this even before his injury.

[dockingsched]

Always surprised me how everyone who played well in the bubble gets dismissed as a fluke, expect Jamal Murray. People just gave him the benefit of the doubt and no one else.

[iLLmatic860]

If they get rid of Jamal Murray, who is the Peanut Butter?

[BelgradeNugget]

Statistical arguments:

A) Jamal Murray’s career BPM 0.2. (Jokic 9.0)

B) Career TS% of .554, high of .592 bubble season

C) Iso ppp for 18-19, 19-20, 20-21 seasons:
.83, .85, .78. (out of top 50 players for iso possessions per game in 20-21, only Levert was worse…)

D) Pick and roll ball handler ppp for 18-19, 19-20, 20-21:
.87, .87, .98

(For reference I believe average ppp in half court is ~.95)
———

And he has likely peaked, the worst likely ahead considering the injury and no bubble: TS% is .499 so far this year.

Watch the highlights, and see Murray get uncontested five footers because both defenders are guarding Jokic on their pick and roll.

I see Murray get easy backdoor layups off a Jokic pass.

Jokic gets double teamed and Murray shoots a wide open 3 pointer.

With the gravity and passing of Jokic, Murray has the golden ticket on offense. Considering his awful defense, considering his usage, one would think that Murray should be at least .600 TS% to merit his massive contract.

Without Jokic’s help you can see his atrocious iso numbers.
----

In conclusion, he is one of the worst contracts in the league and Denver has virtually no chance at a title having all that money locked up on a mediocre player. Prime Lebron couldn't carry that empty contract.

And then comes playoff time. 33 games 2 seasons, 3-2, 1 WCSF, 1 WCF. Hit series winning shot in game 7 of his first one against SAS.
Statistical arguments in the playoffs

1.) 28th all time in PPG
2.) 8 all time in FT%
3.) 34th all time in 3PT%
4.) 27th all time in TS%
5.) 13th all time in O rtg

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/murraja01.html

Murray has always been better in POs (more important) than in RS where he was inconsistent. He basically went on another level in 2020-21 before injury. In RS he also played through different injuries. He was young, still only 25, great synergy with Jokic. In a month or two he'll be OK.

[BelgradeNugget]

Always surprised me how everyone who played well in the bubble gets dismissed as a fluke, expect Jamal Murray. People just gave him the benefit of the doubt and no one else.

Who was a fluke of those who played well in the bubble in your opinion?

[jehosafats]

If they get rid of Jamal Murray, who is the Peanut Butter?

They’re not really ready for this jelly ….

[Inspektor1312]

Jamal didn't play basketball for 18 months, it's gonna take some time to get back in the groove.

Jokić said it best at the start of the season:

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=dfOKN02W9T_jjumKL_MMxw

[SelfishPlayer]

As soon as Jamal Murray's injury happened I seen this thread coming. This thread is really an excuse thread as to why Jokic isn't an NBA champion. Jokic is a two time MVP, he should receive zero lack of title excuses and only pure pressure to win NBA titles!

[Sgt Major]

As soon as Jamal Murray's injury happened I seen this thread coming. This thread is really an excuse thread as to why Jokic isn't an NBA champion. Jokic is a two time MVP, he should receive zero lack of title excuses and only pure pressure to win NBA titles!

Lol right, he should win by himself at a team sport, great logic.

[The Rebel]

Using stats from when Murray was 21 years old seems to be a bit of a stretch. It is also a stretch to say that he has shown who he is at this point this year. Anybody that pays attention knows that it takes 2 full years for players to show what they are after tearing ACLs.

I don't think anybody ever thought that Murray would be the primary scoring option, or even the 2nd, but everybody who follows the Nuggets knows damn good and well that Murray took a huge step in the bubble, and was continuing that step the following year.

The other thing that all Nuggets fans know is that Jamal starts every season off very slowly. I don't remember what year it was but I swear he went 0-57 for 3 to start one season. The later the season goes the better Murray gets, and it has been that way every year of the season. His numbers in the March are always better than in November, and in the playoffs is when he steps up.

One of the things that the Nuggets fans and front office is so excited about is that MPJ is the guy with 1st scorer potential. MPJ is currently 7th on the team for touches, while being tied for 3rd on the team for PPG. Obviously he isn't there yet, but he hasn't played 2 seasons worth of games since high school.

Now who knows if MPJ's back can hold up? Jokic is obviously unstoppable when he wants to be, but it is obvious that he is more comfortable as the 2nd guy, if MPJ can develop and both he and Murray get and stay healthy than Murray is the 3rd option which is probably what he should be.

[realball]

Murray has always been a player who is mediocre in the regular season but steps it up in the playoffs.

[nomansland]

Murray has the killer instinct that the Nuggets sometimes need. If you've watched him all these years you know it.

And, every single year pre-injury he started off a bit slow and gradually improved over the course of the season. It's going to especially true this year coming off of that injury. Saying he's peaked might turn out to be true but I really doubt it.

[SOUL]

He needs to play off his rust still. Sports fans are a bit spoiled with medical technology being better, but a lot of these guys still need months and months to get used to moving similarly/trusting themselves 100%.

[Richard Miller]

He was away for 18 months, that's not the kind of rust a player shakes off after a few games back, his current level is expected

[TheShow2021]

I haven't been watching the nuggets, but this guy was absolutely balling before he blew his ACL. Maybe you just need to be more patient ser.

Career season average BPM of 0.2.
0.78 ppp iso scorer his best season.
.592 TS in his best season
BPM of 2.0 ! his best season.

His best season pales in comparison to the career averages of many 2nd options and some 3rd options.

For reference, Kyrie's career season average BPM is 4.5, Westbrook is 4.2, DeRozan is 0.8 and those are guys that probably need a top 3 and top 20 player in the league to win a championship.

Jamal didn't play basketball for 18 months, it's gonna take some time to get back in the groove.

As soon as Jamal Murray's injury happened I seen this thread coming. This thread is really an excuse thread as to why Jokic isn't an NBA champion. Jokic is a two time MVP, he should receive zero lack of title excuses and only pure pressure to win NBA titles!

The great majority of my post was proving statistically why Murray wasn’t good before the injury.

Using stats from when Murray was 21 years old seems to be a bit of a stretch.

A lot of good players had poor stats when they were 21 but they still don’t have mediocre career average statistics into their mid 20s.

Murray has always been a player who is mediocre in the regular season but steps it up in the playoffs.

Someone telling like it is, but I would contend the regular season sample is much more statically significant (11X BIGGER) than the playoffs. And I would contend an insane series against Donovan Mitchell (who played no defense) in the bubble is likely an outlier. Then he rode that confidence, and empty gym to two other good series….
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For all those people saying he’s a playoff guy, quote me on this: his stats will regress to his career averages, especially considering that playoff defenses are usually tougher.

The good player in playoff narrative will be disproven and all that is left will be: Murray was a mediocre regular season AND mediocre playoff performer with a massive contract that wasted Jokic's prime.

[Richard Miller]

For all those people saying he’s a playoff guy, quote me on this: his stats will regress to his career averages, especially considering that playoff defenses are usually tougher.

The good player in playoff narrative will be disproven and all that is left will be: Murray was a mediocre regular season AND mediocre playoff performer with a massive contract that wasted Jokic's prime.

He scored 21 pts in the fourth quarter alone in the 2nd game vs. Spurs and very likely prevented Nuggets getting swept, since going with 0-2 to San Antonio would've likely been the end of that series. So he was excellent in the playoffs even before the bubble. Whether and what kind of effect will his injury have still remains to be seen.