Post#916 » by The-Power » Thu Dec 1, 2022 1:35 am
So, I now watched 3 full Overtime Elite games from the past couple weeks (Amen played in all 3, his brother only in 1) and honestly, I'd be scared to death to draft them in the top 5 if I were a decision-maker on an NBA team.
The level of play is just so bad compared to college and G-League. Little talent, no structure, no value of possessions, almost no size. Essentially, they dominate a competition of teenagers playing pick-up basketball. Tough to take too much away from that.
Now, that being said, they are clearly exciting prospects in some aspects and you obviously draft them (and not too low either), but the question to which extent their games translate to the NBA level has to scare teams off at least to some degree.
But just looking at them at prospects, here's what we're looking at (based on my observations, and based mostly Amen Thompson's play) – from good to bad:
– Athleticism: They absolutely are ridiculous quick-twitch athletes. Great first step, great speed and agility, finish easily above the rim. They will be high-level NBA athletes without a doubt, and a menace in transition. One note of caution, though: they lack physical strength compared to other players who are primarily paint-finishers. That could be an issue, and it'll be relevant to see how much they can catch up in this area.
– Defense: Yes, I can see them being awesome on-ball defenders. Super quick, long, some good screen navigation (although the NBA is an entirely different beast in that regard) and for the level of play, they do play with a good motor (although the shot contests on jump shots are often weak, but that could just be because players in that league for the most part can't really shoot well). Off-ball defense remains to be seen. They just haven't had to focus on that in that competition, so it doesn't always look great but since it's rarely punished it's hard to fault them too much for it.
– Playmaking: I've seen Amen make a bunch of good reads. BUT: those are mostly easy reads because defenses leave players wide open and do not have the length or organization, and in some cases athleticism, to recover and disrupt those passes. So the reads may look advanced until you notice that the player who receives the ball is often wide open and open for a long time. Still a good foundation to have that, but it remains to be seen if they can also make faster and less obvious reads at the next level. The passes themselves are nothing to write home about. Not many passes are right in the pocket, I've seen lots of passes that went too low, high, left or right, and that's a problem in the NBA. The question is whether that will improve once they play more serious competition when stuff like this actually matters. At this point, they'll have to rely on making relatively easy reads and passes off of defensive rotations they set in motion with their driving threat. That's fine, though – IF they can break down NBA defenses consistently, which remains to be seen.
– Ballhandling: They are creative and fairly fluid, so that's a plus. That being said, I wonder how functional the handles really are. For instance, in three games I've seen Amen get picked and turn it over at least 5 or 6 times on just his spin move! And that's against defenders that are nowhere near as disruptive as players on good college teams, not to mention the NBA. I could also see a lot of carrying violations in their future if the NBA continues to call them tight. So while I do believe they have the foundation to operate off the dribble in the NBA – at least to some degree – I do have concerns about their flash-over-substance style of dribbling.
– Shooting: This is the real issue. Because if opponents can just dare you to shoot and you either refuse to take the shot or just brick too many, you'll have a lot problems in the NBA as a wing. For starters, there's zero chance that you can be a consistent on-ball initiator. So even if you are a great athlete with a functional handle who can pass the ball, that's still not enough if you can't at least hit open shots somewhat reliably. And when you're off the ball, you hurt your team's spacing and coaches don't like that. I wouldn't say they are hopeless cases as shooters BUT: they can get every open shot they want in that league, and yet there are still a bunch of unbelievable bricks among them. It's definitely going to be an uphill battle for them I fear.
And one last note on finishing: when they can load up, they are tough to stop. Give them a driving lane or an open court and they are gone. I've also seen some finishes with solid touch. But I've also seen some really poor finishing attempts around the rim when contested and an NBA (or even college) paint is an entirely different animal. This is also where the physicality question comes in. It doesn't matter how quick and explosive you are: if you can't move defenders in the paint and you don't have a ridiculous lay-up package either, you're going to end up with a lot of ugly shot attempts when contested.
To sum it up: I do see the appeal of two players with good size who are that athletic and show some on-ball creativity. But there are some serious concerns that would make me seriously hesitate to pick them over more proven players. The twins are clearly players who look A LOT better on highlight mixtapes because you see all the ridiculously explosive plays on both ends, the creative finishes and passes, some breakdowns of defenders with a flashy move, and the shots that go in. But what you don't see are the numerous bricks, how defenses give them all the shots they want without being punished, the ugly turnovers and passes that are way off, all the times that the finishes around the rim don't work. It's essentially a highlight mixtape from HS pick-up basketball – and there have been way too many players who have had awesome mixtapes in HS but never amounted to much. And while I'm not saying that's the case here necessarily, it's definitely not something we can rule out yet and that has to be taken into account when we talk about the NBA draft where franchises have A TON riding on their rare high lottery picks.
