Post#79 » by Aimless Outlook » Thu Dec 1, 2022 8:48 pm
I think I've figured it out. You think everyone "Feels" the same, so because you feel that Gausman was the better choice over Mayza (which he was by all statistical measures), you've now associated that as the Feel choice.
And since you felt that Mayza was the bad choice, you've convinced yourself that this could no longer be a "Feel" choice for anyone else, so therefor it is the "Analytical" choice. I mean, it must be, because you feel that it's bad.
The whole point of "Feel" is that people can choose statistically good or statistically bad options at any moment. Their lack of understanding of the statistical data, or their lack of confidence in the data compared to their gut feel, recency bias, or any other emotional influence, can lead them to make their decision.
I actually think "Gut Feel" today compared to 20+ years ago looks very different. The concept of Analytics wasn't in a manager's mind in the 90's, they only trusted tradition and their gut. Managers today have a new "gut feel" based on their understanding of today's analytics. Their gut tells them to replace a starting pitcher early - like in the 3rd time through the order scenario you suggested - because of generalized stats across all scenarios throughout the whole league might say this is a statistically better option. However, the statistics for the actual scenario, and the actual players involved, says otherwise.
The definition of an analytics move is a decision made because of a higher statistical probability of creating a positive impact compared to other moves or non-moves.
Until you can show a statistic for this scenario presented that says a change to Tim Mayza would have a higher likelihood of a better outcome than leaving Gausman in, you cannot claim it as an Analytics move. It is the definition of a Feel move, because the stats that have been presented all say the probability it would create a better outcome is worse than leaving in Gausman or going with an actually good reliever for that scenario.