NBA 2022-23 Regular Season Thread Volume 1

[MettaWorldPanda]

Read on Twitter

Spo is so enabled to start Highsmith at this point and say he's been the answer at PF all along. Highsmith is a tank player. Smdh

[IceColdCubano]

I can’t believe we were running 42 year old UD out against the Celtics last night. For real feel bad for some our players who are killing themselves on a nightly basis trying to salvage this abortion of a roster this front office put together. When Oladipo comes back what does that give us another SG to put at PF?

Yurt is hurt and out, Jovic is hurt and also won't get playing time because he is still raw, Dedmon is absolutely a terrible resigning and has been hurt half of these games as well, Miami has zero depth in our front court, were relying on minutes from Heismith, Caleb at the PF spot and Old man YMCA Haslem for back up center minutes.

Yeah it looks grim, they really could go out and sign somebody, a vet for a like a minimum deal that provides more than any of these guys but are choosing not to keep getting over the tax more. We can clearly see the priorities here. I think they are playing to go all in on getting something by the trade deadline and rather not pick up salary right now to be honest. I expect a vet signing by then.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I can’t believe we were running 42 year old UD out against the Celtics last night. For real feel bad for some our players who are killing themselves on a nightly basis trying to salvage this abortion of a roster this front office put together. When Oladipo comes back what does that give us another SG to put at PF?

Yurt is hurt and out, Jovic is hurt and also won't get playing time because he is still raw, Dedmon is absolutely a terrible resigning and has been hurt half of these games as well, Miami has zero depth in our front court, were relying on minutes from Heismith, Caleb at the PF spot and Old man YMCA Haslem for back up center minutes.

Yeah it looks grim, they really could go out and sign somebody, a vet for a like a minimum deal that provides more than any of these guys but are choosing not to keep getting over the tax more. We can clearly see the priorities here. I think they are playing to go all in on getting something by the trade deadline and rather not pick up salary right now to be honest. I expect a vet signing by then.

Not only are they avoiding the tax this year but next year they are looking at a balloon well over the tax due to Herro's salary and not even accounting for the potential resigning's of Strus and Vincent. By my calculations they have to get rid of Robinson and Oladipo at very least. Herro's contract starts at 27 million next year. Robinson starts at 18.1 next year and Oladipo 9.5(PO). Those two equal Herro's extension next year. They will have to package a draft pick and get a useful expiring or expiring's for those two in order for them to avoid the heavy tax penalty. The Heat are getting 10.5 million in revenue sharing just for avoiding the tax this year so rest assured there is no way Arison is going for paying any tax unless for a guaranteed contender.

[ShulaDon92]

We are an upper tier team, clearly. In the top 5 east. We are better than our record indicates. Keep developing Bam as a centerpiece and Herro as a side piece and if we ever have a full deck maybe we can have a chance to battle the top teams.

What are the available reinforcements? We are a month and a half away from the deadline frenzy.

Bam and Herro are looking really good this year as the future. They need Butler but they are better than ever.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

ML your ROI seems to be based on PPG and unfortunately Jimmy and Bam aren’t going to meet your requirements in this system and/or with Tyler leading the team in shot attempts.

Now if Spo built his offense around Jimmy shooting 21 shots like Tatum and Bam shooting 20 like Brown I think it would be great.

Obviously it’s not as simple as this but for comparison sake:

Tatum 30.8 PPG on 20.9 FGA (1.47 points per shot)
Jimmy 20.9 PPG on 13.5 FGA (1.55 points per shot)

Brown 26.1 PPG on 19.4 FGA (1.35 points per shot)
Bam 20.5 PPG on 15.0 FGA (1.37 points per shot)

They need the attempts, Herro leads the team at 15.4 FGA a game.

Herro 18.1 PPG on 15.4 FGA (1.18 points per shot)

Celtics top 5 in FGA:

Tatum - 20.9
Brown - 19.4
Brogdon - 10
Smart - 9.3
Horford - 7.8

Miami top 5 in FGA:

Herro - 15.4
Bam - 15.0
Jimmy - 13.5
Strus - 13.0
Lowry - 10.9

HUGE difference in shot distribution

Good catch with the FGA… definitely a stat worth noting that tells part of the story as to why they have lower PPG.

fga... great stat!!

I mean it tells the story. You want Jimmy and Bam to score more then redirect the shot distribution. Strus should not be taking as many shots as Jimmy. Herro shouldn’t be taking more than Bam and Jimmy

[3ammy3uck3ts]

ML your ROI seems to be based on PPG and unfortunately Jimmy and Bam aren’t going to meet your requirements in this system and/or with Tyler leading the team in shot attempts.

Now if Spo built his offense around Jimmy shooting 21 shots like Tatum and Bam shooting 20 like Brown I think it would be great.

Obviously it’s not as simple as this but for comparison sake:

Tatum 30.8 PPG on 20.9 FGA (1.47 points per shot)
Jimmy 20.9 PPG on 13.5 FGA (1.55 points per shot)

Brown 26.1 PPG on 19.4 FGA (1.35 points per shot)
Bam 20.5 PPG on 15.0 FGA (1.37 points per shot)

They need the attempts, Herro leads the team at 15.4 FGA a game.

Herro 18.1 PPG on 15.4 FGA (1.18 points per shot)

Celtics top 5 in FGA:

Tatum - 20.9
Brown - 19.4
Brogdon - 10
Smart - 9.3
Horford - 7.8

Miami top 5 in FGA:

Herro - 15.4
Bam - 15.0
Jimmy - 13.5
Strus - 13.0
Lowry - 10.9

HUGE difference in shot distribution

to be fair, this is skewed by the couple games post ankle.

Yes but still in line with his numbers on his career, almost exactly. Last season was slightly higher though

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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This tells me 1, we have to get healthy and 2, we need to make a couple moves to shore things up in those minutes Jimmy and/or Bam are not on the court together.

This team is dominant when they’re both in the game, very solid with just 1, and horrible without both.

[AirP.]

The league average for TS% is .574, there's currently 98 players in the NBA shooting at or above that level, Miami has 5 of those players.

Rotation players above the league TS% average.

.663 Dedmon <- FGA up 4.2 per36 from last year.
.617 Butler <- FGA down 1.8 per36.
.590 Bam <- FGA up 1.4 per36.
.580 Martin <- FGA down .7 per36.
.577 Strus <- FGA up .9 per 36.

Rotation players that are shooting below league TS% average.

.566 Lowry <- FGA up .3 per36.
.547 Herro <- FGA down 1.8 per36.
.525 Vincent <-FGA up .6 per36.
.498 Robinson <- FGA down by 3.3 per36 (why be on the court if not shooting)
.425 Highsmith <- FGA down by 2.5 per36.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

God bless Highsmith

I will say I’ve seen some numbers and matchup stats recently that are actually VERY impressive when it comes to Highsmith potentially being a lockdown defender. His offense is so bad right now though.

[Flash4thewin]

It’s always good to see where we stand in the standings compared to other teams, that gives us an honest appraisal of our team. We have some people here calling the Nets a dumpster fire that needs to be blow up. So it’s either painful or comical to know they are better than us. Then we can look at the Lakers who are considered another dumpster fire, we have two more wins that them. We are not better than what our record is. We are exactly what our record says we are. Sure we can make some minor trades but without something drastic it’s not looking good for us.

Just two more wins than the Lakers, that hurts man. We are that bad.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

It’s always good to see where we stand in the standings compared to other teams, that gives us an honest appraisal of our team. We have some people here calling the Nets a dumpster fire that needs to be blow up. So it’s either painful or comical to know they are better than us. Then we can look at the Lakers who are considered another dumpster fire, we have two more wins that them. We are not better than what our record is. We are exactly what our record says we are. Sure we can make some minor trades but without something drastic it’s not looking good for us.

Just two more wins than the Lakers, that hurts man. We are that bad.

We’ve been injured, need a trade or 2 to fit roster construction, and have had a pretty brutal schedule to start the season to top it off. You plug the holes and this team is fine, we’re going to make a run for HCA over the next month

[Bishop45]

Read on Twitter

Spo is so enabled to start Highsmith at this point and say he's been the answer at PF all along. Highsmith is a tank player. Smdh

Good for him! Hope he keeps pushing to improve

Spo gonna be Spo tho

[contract]

I can’t believe we were running 42 year old UD out against the Celtics last night. For real feel bad for some our players who are killing themselves on a nightly basis trying to salvage this abortion of a roster this front office put together. When Oladipo comes back what does that give us another SG to put at PF?

Yurt is hurt and out, Jovic is hurt and also won't get playing time because he is still raw, Dedmon is absolutely a terrible resigning and has been hurt half of these games as well, Miami has zero depth in our front court, were relying on minutes from Heismith, Caleb at the PF spot and Old man YMCA Haslem for back up center minutes.

Yeah it looks grim, they really could go out and sign somebody, a vet for a like a minimum deal that provides more than any of these guys but are choosing not to keep getting over the tax more. We can clearly see the priorities here. I think they are playing to go all in on getting something by the trade deadline and rather not pick up salary right now to be honest. I expect a vet signing by then.

At the rate our guys are getting "hurt", it may be time to start blaming the training staff.

[Hallstar]

The league average for TS% is .574, there's currently 98 players in the NBA shooting at or above that level, Miami has 5 of those players.

Rotation players above the league TS% average.

.663 Dedmon <- FGA up 4.2 per36 from last year.
.617 Butler <- FGA down 1.8 per36.
.590 Bam <- FGA up 1.4 per36.
.580 Martin <- FGA down .7 per36.
.577 Strus <- FGA up .9 per 36.

Rotation players that are shooting below league TS% average.

.566 Lowry <- FGA up .3 per36.
.547 Herro <- FGA down 1.8 per36.
.525 Vincent <-FGA up .6 per36.
.498 Robinson <- FGA down by 3.3 per36 (why be on the court if not shooting)
.425 Highsmith <- FGA down by 2.5 per36.

Herro was at .585 before the ankle. No reason to believe it won't go back up there

[Kobewade11]

It’s always good to see where we stand in the standings compared to other teams, that gives us an honest appraisal of our team. We have some people here calling the Nets a dumpster fire that needs to be blow up. So it’s either painful or comical to know they are better than us. Then we can look at the Lakers who are considered another dumpster fire, we have two more wins that them. We are not better than what our record is. We are exactly what our record says we are. Sure we can make some minor trades but without something drastic it’s not looking good for us.

Just two more wins than the Lakers, that hurts man. We are that bad.

The #4 seed in the East has just two more wins than us, does that same logic apply here or only when we want to devalue our team? Im not saying we cant be better, but I cant ignore us going into games with 7 healthy players either.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I’m sure Dipo and Yurt being out are viewed as major losses. They were both going to have huge roles on this team. Yurt arguably was going to start and Dipo was going to run the bench

[HeatGuyInChicago]

Nothing that Jimmy Butler can control, but he needs to be available to play.

Butler has played 13 out of 22 games.
Tatum has played 21 out of 22 games.

This is the biggest reason why the Heat are below 0.500.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Nothing that Jimmy Butler can control, but he needs to be available to play.

Butler has played 13 out of 22 games.
Tatum has played 21 out of 22 games.

This is the biggest reason why the Heat are below 0.500.

Yep, availability is very important. AD has the nickname “always doubtful” but Jimmy has quietly only played about 20 more games than him since he’s been in Miami

[AirP.]

[AirP.]