OKC Thunder 2022-23 Regular Season Discussion

[Old Man Game]

Jalen WIlliams is the kind of player we wanted Dort to be.

he's pretty bad on defense.

Since you're a big stats guy, I'm going to presume this is based on stats or advanced stats. You know those advanced stats for defense are all crap, right?

There was a ringer article on this awhile back wherein they illustrated that no one has really been able to solve how to account for defense via advanced stats yet.

[slick_watts]

Jalen WIlliams is the kind of player we wanted Dort to be.

he's pretty bad on defense.

Since you're a big stats guy, I'm going to presume this is based on stats or advanced stats. You know those advanced stats for defense are all crap, right?

There was a ringer article on this awhile back wherein they illustrated that no one has really been able to solve how to account for defense via advanced stats yet.

they are most certainly not all crap, but obviously boxscore based apm metrics will have trouble resolving individual player impact. but jalen williams is consistently poor in this regard, and also with eye-test tracking services such as synergy sports. here is how he looks there:



again, this is trained human beings tracking his defensive contributions. when the apm metrics and the tracking metrics agree on something, i think it's strong evidence for a conclusion.

that said, williams has improved somewhat on the synergy #'s particularly after the spurs game, which is unsurprising.

i have high hopes for williams on defense, considering his length and athleticism.

[ThunderBolt]

Also, we’re at the point in the season where the trends we’ve seen start to be more representative of what we can expect the rest of the season. I see a role for Bazley on this team if the price is right.

Thinking about Poku’s first two years and Bazley’s first three, really makes me wonder why some aren’t more willing to give Josh more time figure this out. If we could trade him for Wagner or Barnes, I’d do it in a heartbeat but we know that isn’t happening.

Would you deal Giddey for Wendell Carter Jr? WCJ is still Orlando's best player at the moment and he is on a very modest contract. My only concern with WCJ is his availability.

I really haven't seen much of WCJ since magic aren't ever on TV. I have a hard time feeling like he can stay healthy.

[slick_watts]

here's one more thunder curiosity. i noticed during games that the thunder were doing an odd thing on opponent FT attempts, sending two players to the corners and running, even on makes. the boston commentators (b. scalabrine in particular) made mention of this a few times but i haven't heard many opposing commentators mention it. maybe michael cage does? i don't listen to him.

anyway here's a chart. this is possession length off opponent free throw makes. red line is league average. no other team has a chart like this.



the thunder are scoring 116pp100 on opponent free throw makes. by contrast- the phoenix suns, #2 offense in the nba, are scoring 100pp100 on opponent free throw makes.

maybe some noise in here and who knows if it's actually effective or not long-term, but so far it seems to be making a difference.

[Devilanche]

Bazely has played himself into another contract whether here or elsewhere . I do think sub MLE money though .

[retrobro90]

here's one more thunder curiosity. i noticed during games that the thunder were doing an odd thing on opponent FT attempts, sending two players to the corners and running, even on makes. the boston commentators (b. scalabrine in particular) made mention of this a few times but i haven't heard many opposing commentators mention it. maybe michael cage does? i don't listen to him.

anyway here's a chart. this is possession length off opponent free throw makes. red line is league average. no other team has a chart like this.



the thunder are scoring 116pp100 on opponent free throw makes. by contrast- the phoenix suns, #2 offense in the nba, are scoring 100pp100 on opponent free throw makes.

maybe some noise in here and who knows if it's actually effective or not long-term, but so far it seems to be making a difference.

This is great slick. Already +1'd but just wanna commend the observation and supporting evidence. I don't think it'll be long before the rest of the league catches on and follows suit based on the success OKC has had.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?dir=-1&sort=PACE

Right now OKC is in 6th for pace. Theres no reason those teams at the top (many of whom like the Lakers are struggling offensively) shouldnt start doing this in the coming weeks.

[slick_watts]

here's a wild split.

okc thunder with starters in the game, while all five opponent starters are on the floor: 175 minutes, -30.3pp100

okc thunder in all other situations: 954 minutes, +4.5pp100

[bbms]

here's a wild split.

okc thunder with starters in the game, while all five opponent starters are on the floor: 175 minutes, -30.3pp100

okc thunder in all other situations: 954 minutes, +4.5pp100

oh boy we do have a long and painful history with bad starting line ups.

[QPR]

Has the same starting five even started consecutive games this season?

[slick_watts]

Has the same starting five even started consecutive games this season?

11 games have been started by either sga-dort-poku-j.williams-giddey or sga-dort-poku-jre-giddey. the other 12 have been a bit all over the place but have performed a lot better (but still bad).

[Devilanche]

here's a wild split.

okc thunder with starters in the game, while all five opponent starters are on the floor: 175 minutes, -30.3pp100

okc thunder in all other situations: 954 minutes, +4.5pp100

I think this is reasonable . Out of our starting 5 only SGA probably is ready for a playoff roster starting 5 as of today.

[slick_watts]

thunder are shooting 28.5% three point shooting as a team in transition on six attempts a game. that's pretty rough. only the lakers have a lower percentage (26.3%), but they attempt nearly half as many.

the thunder are committed to being a transition team, obviously. they have been effective in all other aspects of transition offense. they turn the ball over 2nd least in transition, and are 5th in shooting foul percentage. even shooting 65.5% on 2pt attempts in transition, which is decent, the same as the denver nuggets, the most efficient transition team in the league.

if the thunder really want to unlock this aspect of their game it's clear what is holding it back. all the other pieces are in place for them to be elite in transition. it's the three point shooting that is just not there.

[jake_swivel]

if the thunder really want to unlock this aspect of their game it's clear what is holding it back. all the other pieces are in place for them to be elite in transition. it's the three point shooting that is just not there.

Perhaps they are more invested in building the style now and will be adding shooting later, via added players and internal development. The spacing in getting the shots up should theoretically open lanes for driving if the outside shots are defended. If they decrease the outside shooting, the lanes narrow and then you’re left with the same poor shooting to fall back on. I still don’t think winning now is a bigger goal than program development, and I think that’s a wise choice.

[kdthunderup]

if the thunder really want to unlock this aspect of their game it's clear what is holding it back. all the other pieces are in place for them to be elite in transition. it's the three point shooting that is just not there.

Perhaps they are more invested in building the style now and will be adding shooting later, via added players and internal development. The spacing in getting the shots up should theoretically open lanes for driving if the outside shots are defended. If they decrease the outside shooting, the lanes narrow and then you’re left with the same poor shooting to fall back on. I still don’t think winning now is a bigger goal than program development, and I think that’s a wise choice.

https://youtu.be/MjSZbfutly4

You can already see the system and style of play we want to develop here. Even though we don’t have the most offensive talent yet, we are the best young team in terms of cohesiveness. Once Chet returns I can see things ramping up another level.

I still think we miss another true 3 level scorer who can carry and create their own offense outside of Shai. If Presti was tempted to push the rebuild into overdrive I think someone like Lavine could push this team into a decent seed by next season.

I still think Presti is more tempted to sit on what we have though and rely on internal development to uncover that player.

[Dadouv47]

Nice win. Shai played great defense, I'm suspicious JDub isn't a rookie because he's so smart/mature and I was super happy to see Dieng playing well.

Our team is still bad but not bad enough to keep building through the draft (except if Chet and or 2023 FRP are both bust). We could afford making a big move this offseason...not more than bringing one player because we still have a lot of guys to develop.

[kdthunderup]

Nice win. Shai played great defense, I'm suspicious JDub isn't a rookie because he's so smart/mature and I was super happy to see Dieng playing well.

Our team is still bad but not bad enough to keep building through the draft (except if Chet and or 2023 FRP are both bust). We could afford making a big move this offseason...not more than bringing one player because we still have a lot of guys to develop.

The defense he played on Trae at the end of the 2nd was top tier. Even if the advanced stats don't show him to be a strong defender yet I think he still has all the tools to be good to great on that end.

[slick_watts]

Nice win. Shai played great defense, I'm suspicious JDub isn't a rookie because he's so smart/mature and I was super happy to see Dieng playing well.

Our team is still bad but not bad enough to keep building through the draft (except if Chet and or 2023 FRP are both bust). We could afford making a big move this offseason...not more than bringing one player because we still have a lot of guys to develop.

i think that, the way shai has been playing, it is important to make a big move this offseason.

[ThunderBolt]

Nice win. Shai played great defense, I'm suspicious JDub isn't a rookie because he's so smart/mature and I was super happy to see Dieng playing well.

Our team is still bad but not bad enough to keep building through the draft (except if Chet and or 2023 FRP are both bust). We could afford making a big move this offseason...not more than bringing one player because we still have a lot of guys to develop.

i think that, the way shai has been playing, it is important to make a big move this offseason.

It will be interesting to see who is available. Right now I'm not seeing a lot of guys that I expect to be available that I would consider a big move.

[slick_watts]

Nice win. Shai played great defense, I'm suspicious JDub isn't a rookie because he's so smart/mature and I was super happy to see Dieng playing well.

Our team is still bad but not bad enough to keep building through the draft (except if Chet and or 2023 FRP are both bust). We could afford making a big move this offseason...not more than bringing one player because we still have a lot of guys to develop.

i think that, the way shai has been playing, it is important to make a big move this offseason.

It will be interesting to see who is available. Right now I'm not seeing a lot of guys that I expect to be available that I would consider a big move.

i would sign p.j. washington to an offer sheet.

[Dadouv47]

Which players in the next draft in the 7-10 range would fit well in our team? (likely guys that could have a positive impact after 1 or 2 seasons in the NBA). I would love to move up in the draft to 3-5 range but i doubt a team would accept picks for that so our chances are pretty slim.