How Good can Killian Hayes be?

[Invictus88]

This entire post screams of someone white-knuckling frayed tatters of their tunnel-vision narrative to their chest.

It's still yet to be seen how Killian plays without the ball in his hands nearly as much when Cade comes back into the lineup.

So you aren't watching Pistons games as of late then; where he shares the floor with Jaden Ivey and they split pg duties?

Part of my dislike of the Killian + Bagley moves isn't/wasn't just them as players, but also the fact that we have $50+ million in cap space and another top lottery pick coming in and there are only 10 rotation players needed at most (many teams run 9) and the fact that I'd rather stack money up for starting level players than bench guys.

This take makes no sense.
Rookie scale contracts are by far the most efficient from a talent per dollar perspective. If Killian continues to play well you won't be able to find anything equivalent without spending much, much more.

If we were talking about a non-rookie extension then maybe you'd have a leg to stand on; but you aren't going to be able to find a servicable backup pg that plays 25+ minutes per game without spending something near what we would be paying Killian next year.

You're talking about 7.4 million which is peanuts for a 2nd string pg.

Cade/Ivey/Bojan/Stew/Duren
Hayes/Burks/Livers/Bey/Bagley
Two or three of these guys need to get axed from the rotation next year to make room for the new players coming in. If you look at those 10 there are probably 6 guys that are completely safe, and then 4 guys including Hayes and Bagley that could/will be pushed out once we increase our talent level with another top lottery pick and a good starting FA. I don't think we can just push all of our free agent money forward yet another summer.

I hate to tell you this but this happens every offseason. The rebuilding process isn't over. I fully expect Weaver to ship some of these players away as we get nearer to having to sign their 2nd contracts. It happens with everyone. The rumors have started with Bey. Bojan will have a market for sure. Burks doesn't fit our window and will likely be trade filler unless he gets hot again. It could even be Killian that goes.

But a 7.4 million dollar 4th year extension doesn't hinder any of that. Heck. The way Bagley has been playing makes it likely that his contract will be seen as average value or better in a couple of years due to inflation.

And it's a dumb rationale saying we have to spend money in a particular offseason just for the sake of spending it. It's almost the gambler's fallacy.

If we land Scoot as a guard and one of Jerami Grant, Porzingas, or Myles Turner as our big Free Agent that obviously pushes a few people out of the rotation. All three of these FA bigs can shoot and could play next to Duren, Bagley, or Stew.

Sure. And then we trade one of them away for assets; maybe even Killian or Bagley if they kerp up their play for the season and we go that route.

And if we draft someone other than Scoot we go a different direction. So what?

So having Bagley and Hayes in the rotation next year doesn't make a ton of sense to me unless we're just passing on adding better talent in FA again next summer.

You're trying to push a narrative that you've beaten to death at basically the worst possible time. It honestly would have been better for you just to have remained silent in desperate hope that they will once again falter (which I definitely won't rule out).

But as the world continues to turn so does bstein14 post his disdain for Killian and Bagley.

[Drwho17]

Hayes has been better, but I'm not sure this is for reals as of yet. He still struggles as a ball handler, I've always thought his shooting motion looked good at times, just that he struggles with his balance. As for Bagley, I think he's been pretty good too, very efficient percentages, some good rebounding and a few blocks here and there.

[bstein14]

It's premature to be talking who is worthy of being in next years rotation. There's a ton of season left, and there are scenarios that could play out where Bagley and/or Hayes keeps improving to the point where they'll project as good players on a winning team. We just need to see this season play out first.

Fore sure... after being horrible yet again this season we should likely have at least 2 but more reasonably 3 new rotation players next year.... especially considering we have a huge amount of cap space and what looks like a likely top 7 pick again next season.

So even though its up in the air as to who should be out.... there's about 6 guys you know aren't going anywhere (Ivey, Duren, Cade, Stew, etc) and there are about 4 guys who are up in the air (Burks, Hayes, Bagley, etc).

For me personally, I think we'd take a better and bigger jump investing in a good starter with the $21 million (similar to how we got Grant for that range) rather than investing in bench players with that type of money..... I could be wrong though... its certainly possible that having a 10 man rotation with 7 bench guys and 3 starting level players could pay off for us.

[Manocad]

It's premature to be talking who is worthy of being in next years rotation. There's a ton of season left, and there are scenarios that could play out where Bagley and/or Hayes keeps improving to the point where they'll project as good players on a winning team. We just need to see this season play out first.

Fore sure... after being horrible yet again this season we should likely have at least 2 but more reasonably 3 new rotation players next year.... especially considering we have a huge amount of cap space and what looks like a likely top 7 pick again next season.

So even though its up in the air as to who should be out.... there's about 6 guys you know aren't going anywhere (Ivey, Duren, Cade, Stew, etc) and there are about 4 guys who are up in the air (Burks, Hayes, Bagley, etc).

For me personally, I think we'd take a better and bigger jump investing in a good starter with the $21 million (similar to how we got Grant for that range) rather than investing in bench players with that type of money..... I could be wrong though... its certainly possible that having a 10 man rotation with 7 bench guys and 3 starting level players could pay off for us.

You're wrong.

[Moses ShamMoses]

It's premature to be talking who is worthy of being in next years rotation. There's a ton of season left, and there are scenarios that could play out where Bagley and/or Hayes keeps improving to the point where they'll project as good players on a winning team. We just need to see this season play out first.

Fore sure... after being horrible yet again this season we should likely have at least 2 but more reasonably 3 new rotation players next year.... especially considering we have a huge amount of cap space and what looks like a likely top 7 pick again next season.

So even though its up in the air as to who should be out.... there's about 6 guys you know aren't going anywhere (Ivey, Duren, Cade, Stew, etc) and there are about 4 guys who are up in the air (Burks, Hayes, Bagley, etc).

For me personally, I think we'd take a better and bigger jump investing in a good starter with the $21 million (similar to how we got Grant for that range) rather than investing in bench players with that type of money..... I could be wrong though... its certainly possible that having a 10 man rotation with 7 bench guys and 3 starting level players could pay off for us.

I'll almost always advocate for paying more money to one starter quality player versus splitting it up amongst bench players. Caveat being the cheaper players are easier (with less incentive attached) to move if they don't pan out. I think at the end of the day, Weaver needs to sign guys who aren't total busts for the role and money we bring then in at, bench player or starter.

[eitanr]

It's not worth dealing Hayes and Bey when they're values aren't great AND there still could be a fit.

I see two units forming:

Unit A: Cade/Ivey/Bogie/Stewart and ideally another spacer
Unit B: Hayes/Burks/Bey/Duren with another spacer

The odd men out are clearly Diallo, Bagley. The interim solution is to give these units the spacers needed to flourish. You could just add one spacer AND ensure 2/3 of new spacer/Burks/Bogie are on the court.

In the end, right now it's about staggering the units to max your talent. If Casey can keep 2 of Hayes/Ivey/Cade/Bey on the court together with 2 spacers and one of the bigs, Detroit would at least max the talents and then re-assess when values are higher on draft night...and of course adjust pending draft position.