General Blue Jays Thread

dagger · Post #2001 » by **dagger** » Mon Dec 5, 2022 8:25 pm

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polo007 · Post #2002 » by **polo007** » Mon Dec 5, 2022 10:08 pm

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Post #2003 » by **Schad** » Mon Dec 5, 2022 10:09 pm

Heaney's a serious feast/famine option. He was a bust for the first eight years of his career, but he changed his pitch mix last season (dumped the CB for a SL, threw his CH much less) and in limited action got excellent results. But when he isn't striking people out, he gets hit hard. Really, really hard. As hard as anyone in baseball.

Not difficult to see why this front office would be comfortable with that, though...it's Robbie Ray, another lefty who rode a FB/SL combination and got crushed when he missed his spot. Heaney doesn't throw quite as hard, but he also historically has better command.

dagger · Post #2004 » by **dagger** » Mon Dec 5, 2022 11:04 pm

Schad wrote:Heaney's a serious feast/famine option. He was a bust for the first eight years of his career, but he changed his pitch mix last season (dumped the CB for a SL, threw his CH much less) and in limited action got excellent results. But when he isn't striking people out, he gets hit hard. Really, really hard. As hard as anyone in baseball.

Not difficult to see why this front office would be comfortable with that, though...it's Robbie Ray, another lefty who rode a FB/SL combination and got crushed when he missed his spot. Heaney doesn't throw quite as hard, but he also historically has better command.

And he's likely to be far better than anyone in the five slot in the rotation based on where we were at at the end of last season. Now if he has to move up to four...

Post #2005 » by **Schad** » Mon Dec 5, 2022 11:22 pm

dagger wrote:And he's likely to be far better than anyone in the five slot in the rotation based on where we were at at the end of last season. Now if he has to move up to four...

Depends. Heaney's an injury and performance risk, but for half a season last year -- despite the hard contact -- he was in the 69th percentile for xERA, which is Nice. It's even better comparing him just against starters: his xwOBA was just a shade worse than Manoah and Gausman, in the 74th percentile among those who threw 1000+ pitches on the year.

I'd consider him being a fifth starter less likely than the other two possibilities: that he's a good mid-rotation starter, or he's an absolute waste of money.

WuTang_CMB · Post #2006 » by **WuTang_CMB** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 1:02 am

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Post #2007 » by **Cyrus** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 3:31 am

With all these 10 year/ 11 year, what you think vladdy gonna get?

10 and 45 mill a year? It's certainly not going to be cheap

polo007 · Post #2008 » by **polo007** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 7:46 am

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polo007 · Post #2009 » by **polo007** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 6:18 pm

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polo007 · Post #2010 » by **polo007** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 7:57 pm

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StringerBell · Post #2011 » by **StringerBell** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 9:04 pm

Lars and Brantley would be nice adds to the lineup without breaking the bank.

SharoneWright · Post #2012 » by **SharoneWright** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 9:29 pm

I wonder, has Kyle Gibson ever been to Baltimore?

polo007 · Post #2013 » by **polo007** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 10:04 pm

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Davey0 · Post #2014 » by **Davey0** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 11:08 pm

I wonder if they can take a gamble on Bellinger for one year and try to sign Nimmo on a long-term deal.

Davey0 · Post #2015 » by **Davey0** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 11:40 pm

Bellinger to the Cubs, 1 year for 17 Million. You can have him.

Post #2016 » by **Schad** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 11:45 pm

After much talk that there was no way Bellinger would get something in the $18-20m range, he gets $17.5m guaranteed ($5.5m is in the form of a mutual option for 2024, but there's virtually no chance that gets picked up by both sides...it's basically just a way to push some of the salary back).

polo007 · Post #2017 » by **polo007** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 12:01 am

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Parataxis · Post #2018 » by **Parataxis** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 12:23 am

Schad wrote:After much talk that there was no way Bellinger would get something in the $18-20m range, he gets $17.5m guaranteed ($5.5m is in the form of a mutual option for 2024, but there's virtually no chance that gets picked up by both sides...it's basically just a way to push some of the salary back).

Do you recall what his expected arb salary was supposed to be? I feel it was around the 18.5 mark, but I'm maybe confusing him with somebody else?

SharoneWright · Post #2019 » by **SharoneWright** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 12:31 am

It's a justifiable deal. What's the old adage?? No 1-year deal is a bad deal?

Cubs get equal odds on a 7 MILL player and a 27 MILL player. They rolled the dice and split the differnce at 17 MILL. They're taking a 1-year shot.

The genius moves are 1) to either ignore Bellinger completely if your scouts see no value OR 2) bet on him for multiple years when his stock is down if your scouts are convinced.

This Cubs move is not genius or stupid. It's just a 1-year gamble.

Post #2020 » by **Schad** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 12:37 am

Parataxis wrote:
Schad wrote:After much talk that there was no way Bellinger would get something in the $18-20m range, he gets $17.5m guaranteed ($5.5m is in the form of a mutual option for 2024, but there's virtually no chance that gets picked up by both sides...it's basically just a way to push some of the salary back).

Do you recall what his expected arb salary was supposed to be? I feel it was around the 18.5 mark, but I'm maybe confusing him with somebody else?

Arb projection was ~$18m, so this is basically in line.

One interesting element: the Cubs actually have an outfield. It's basically the only thing they do have, and I doubt Bellinger signs there given the interest unless he's expected to be a mainstay in CF. Christopher Morel is the incumbent, but he's not a good CF at all. But his bat plays elsewhere.

Could mean that they intend to move Morel to another position, possibly 2B. Could also make them more willing to move Ian Happ, a long-time Jays target.