General Blue Jays Thread

[Hottie McShotty]

Verlander would have been a nice piece to add to this rotation. Hoping we catch a big fish in FA or via trade. Need to shore up that starting rotation with a quality arm.

[polo007]

CBT 'not an obstacle' as Blue Jays plan for big payroll - MLB.com

For many years, these challenges were a million miles away for the Blue Jays as they spent toward the middle or the bottom third of the league. These new realities aren’t always simple, but it’s the sign of a club doing what fans have wanted to see for a long time: spending. Now that needs to continue.

The long-term wrinkle here is when it comes to Guerrero and Bichette, both candidates for early extensions. We should be including Alek Manoah in that group, too.

“The closer they get to free agency, the more that changes their equation of risk,” Shapiro said. “It makes them probably less willing to give up the risk of what it means to be out there. The timing, it impacts the sharing of the risk and that sweet spot equation. I think that’s the right word. We’re looking for the sweet spot.”

That sweet spot is the secret to all of this, whether it’s in free agency or in-house extensions.

The Blue Jays’ ongoing $300 million renovations to Rogers Centre are another major project, but that budget has no overlap with player payroll. Another interesting wrinkle floated by Shapiro on Tuesday was that the Toronto is “actively seeking” a jersey patch partner to have a sponsorship patch placed on the sleeve of its jerseys. Whether that happens this season or next, it’ll be another welcome revenue stream.

The refreshed stadium will look much nicer when it’s hosting winning baseball, though, and while budgets and money are far from the most exciting factors at the Winter Meetings, that changes quickly when it’s being spent.

[polo007]

Blue Jays pitcher Jose Berrios looking good in Puerto Rico | Toronto Sun

SAN DIEGO — As the hunt for starting pitching continues for the Blue Jays at these so far sleepy Winter Meetings, perhaps there’s some good news coming from Puerto Rico.

Jays third base coach Luis Rivera has been spending his off-season in his homeland, and recently ran into a compatriot, Jose Berrios, and had an encouraging report.

While much of the Jays’ focus is on external improvement for its rotation, there’s also the hope that Berrios will jumpstart to the form that earned him a seven-year, $131-million U.S. extension last December.

And Rivera likes what he’s seeing this off-season from the Jays right-hander, who had a frustrating first full season with in Toronto in 2022.

“He looked like he’s in great shape,” Rivera said at the media gathering for the World Baseball Classic where he will be part of Puerto Rico manager Joey Sola’s staff. “I think he’s going to be ready for the season. He’s better than what he pitched last year and we all know that and he knows that."

“He’s looking forward to having a better year.”

And Puerto Rico is looking forward to having Berrios as as a key member of its rotation. Sola said on Tuesday that he sees Berrios as his potential opening-game starter when the tournament begins in March.

[polo007]

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[Cyrus]

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Why is the reporting consistently oh JAys made an offer on Player X for similar Dollars or even more? Its like almost they have been instructed to mentioned the Jays are being active, are making offers (Better offers), and players are turning down as the narrative which might be true, but why put it out there?

We already know the Jays will likely have to put either more dollars/term for players to come here. (Yusei, Ryu, Springer, etc.)

I don't recall seeing Masai/co doing the same for the Raptors, when they get shut down in free agency, they don't feed Eric smith or whomever, oh look we made higher dollar offer to play X as part of their narrative.

To me it comes off as excuse.

[anj]

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Why is the reporting consistently oh JAys made an offer on Player X for similar Dollars or even more? Its like almost they have been instructed to mentioned the Jays are being active, are making offers (Better offers), and players are turning down as the narrative which might be true, but why put it out there?

We already know the Jays will likely have to put either more dollars/term for players to come here. (Yusei, Ryu, Springer, etc.)

I don't recall seeing Masai/co doing the same for the Raptors, when they get shut down in free agency, they don't feed Eric smith or whomever, oh look we made higher dollar offer to play X as part of their narrative.

To me it comes off as excuse.

Meh, I remember hoops and hockey reporters doing the same thing. Is it really management feeding the press or the press feeding the sports news churn? The door swings both ways.

[Cyrus]

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Why is the reporting consistently oh JAys made an offer on Player X for similar Dollars or even more? Its like almost they have been instructed to mentioned the Jays are being active, are making offers (Better offers), and players are turning down as the narrative which might be true, but why put it out there?

We already know the Jays will likely have to put either more dollars/term for players to come here. (Yusei, Ryu, Springer, etc.)

I don't recall seeing Masai/co doing the same for the Raptors, when they get shut down in free agency, they don't feed Eric smith or whomever, oh look we made higher dollar offer to play X as part of their narrative.

To me it comes off as excuse.

Meh, I remember hoops and hockey reporters doing the same thing. Is it really management feeding the press or the press feeding the sports news churn? The door swings both ways.

I haven't seen much of that narrative when Masai was around, maybe when BC was around.

Hockey,maybe, more so about player X doesn't want to play in Toronto because of media/market, not because of dollars.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

[
I haven't seen much of that narrative when Masai was around, maybe when BC was around.

Hockey,maybe, more so about player X doesn't want to play in Toronto because of media/market, not because of dollars.

You can see the same for every team currently. As an example, it was reported that Trea Turner was offered more by the Padres.

There's a really simple explanation that doesn't involve some sort of front office - media conspiracy: a lot of teams, including us, are chasing a lot of free agents, and because of the widespread use of statistical modeling (and because everyone leaks like a sieve), team offers are more clustered than they might have been 20 years ago. Consequently, you get a lot more instances where multiple teams make offers that are very close together, rather than the old thing where one team outbids themselves by $50m.

That in turn leads to situations where players' choices aren't always driven by the team that offers the highest AAV, because that offer likely isn't massively different than the offer they accepted. As an example, if we offered a mil more per year than the Rangers, Heaney makes more with the Rangers owing to their lack of state income tax. Or maybe it's closer to home or they like the strip clubs or whatever. Those things wouldn't matter if one team is bidding $10m and another $15m, but when everyone is +/- 10%, they come into play.

[polo007]

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[Parataxis]

Looks like a pretty uneventful Rule 5 from a Jays perspective this year. No-one added or lost at the MLB Rule 5. Minors we picked up a catcher, Kekai Rios, from the Dodgers org, and lost SS Logan Warmoth to the Mariners.

[polo007]

Blue Jays could near limits of luxury tax threshold this offseason - The Athletic

Outlook for a long-term extension for young core

Even if the Blue Jays stay below the CBT threshold for the 2023 season, the rising cost of their payroll will be a development to watch in the years to come, especially as their young players get more expensive and inch closer to free agency.

It doesn’t feel like that long ago that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were rookies on a rebuilding Blue Jays team, but now they’re just three years away from free agency. As pillars of the team’s core, the Blue Jays have long been interested in inking both players to long-term deals. That interest remains, and according to Shapiro, the team continues to have a dialogue with both players about signing a long-term extension.

“Three years is a very long time, but we’re also cognizant that three years can come quickly, and we’ll take every advantage of what that means to our window to compete and always maintain an openness and a willingness and a desire to keep them here longer,” Shapiro said.

When speaking in general terms about signing arbitration-eligible players to extensions, Shapiro has always talked about the concept of sharing risk. Typically, for a deal to materialize, both club and player must find the “sweet spot” they’re comfortable with.

“Where do you both get comfortable with a level of risk? Us with what the commitment means, and them with what they could potentially be giving up,” Shapiro said.

Presumably, the longer Bichette and Guerrero play in the majors and establish themselves as franchise players, the presumed risks surrounding signing a long-term deal lowers for the team, which can better project those players’ futures and therefore feel comfortable with a significant commitment. For the players, though, the closer they get to free agency, the more likely they might be to just see how they could fare on the open market.

“The closer they get to free agency, the more that changes their equation of risk,” Shapiro said. “It makes them probably less willing to give up the risk of what it means to be out there. The timing, it impacts the sharing of the risk and that sweet-spot equation.”

[polo007]

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[polo007]

As market moves, a test of patience emerges for Blue Jays – and their fans - Sportsnet.ca

While Bellinger was intriguing, there are questions about performance (rising strikeout rates, declining exit velocity) and health (shoulder). Plus, interesting options remain available in that market. The Boras Corp. alone represents various intriguing left-handed hitting outfielders beyond Bellinger with Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Joey Gallo each of interest.

“The Blue Jays have raised interest in all of them,” Boras told Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae and I on Tuesday. “They’re evaluating the market for fits so they’re definitely having discussions since the trade of Teoscar (Hernandez) to try to improve their offence.”

Nimmo would be the best baseball fit of the three, though he’ll also be the most expensive free agent outfielder not named Judge. While Gallo has intriguing power, his strikeout rate – 39.8 per cent in 2022 – creates some hesitation for front office types across the game.

But Conforto, a 29-year-old with a career OPS of .824, appears legitimately appealing to the Blue Jays even after a season lost to shoulder surgery. He’s likely to command a one-year deal – a framework the Blue Jays are again open to having enjoyed mutually beneficial one-year deals with the likes of Semien and Robbie Ray.

Beyond the Boras group, other left-handed hitting free agents worth watching include Michael Brantley, in whom they’ve expressed interest, and Kevin Kiermaier.

While Boras described the Blue Jays as more motivated on hitters than pitchers, other industry sources have a different read on the Blue Jays, who are often described as an active team in the starting pitching market. If nothing else, the agent’s comments strongly suggest they’re not among the leading teams on Carlos Rodon, the left-hander who’s now the top free agent pitcher available.

For teams like the Blue Jays, the rising cost of starting pitching does complicate things. But as the pursuit of Justin Verlander shows, the Blue Jays don’t have to cut themselves off from anything either. Team president Mark Shapiro said Tuesday that MLB’s competitive balance tax – set at $233 million for 2023 – is ‘not an obstacle’ for ownership at Rogers Communications Inc., which also owns Sportsnet.

What exactly that looks like is another question. As intriguing players sign elsewhere, more creativity will be required from the Toronto front office. That’s never easy, especially at a time that prices are rising. And while we wait, feel free to panic. Every fan has that right. But if the Blue Jays add meaningfully to their roster a little later in the winter, it wouldn’t be a first.

[polo007]

How Judge's re-signing impacts Nimmo, other free-agent outfielders - Sportsnet.ca

7:12 | December 7, 2022

Ben Nicholson-Smith joins Tim & Friends to discuss the MLB off-season and free agency, including Aaron Judge re-signing with the New York Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays' early strategy and their potential targets at this point in the process.

[Cyrus]

Cue Shi Intel that hays made the highest offer to judge and Japanese outfielder to show we trying!!!

[Davey0]

Cue Shi Intel that hays made the highest offer to judge and Japanese outfielder to show we trying!!!

Yeah, I think people are assuming that the Jays are not trying to offer contracts. It's based on what the player thinks is best for them... and their bank account lol.

[ItsDanger]

Jays should trade Moreno, probably get the most from him in a trade among the 3 catchers. Wasting an asset.

[polo007]

As winter meetings come to a close, Blue Jays opt to wait for other opportunities - Sportsnet.ca

The exception to doing that was with Andrew Heaney, with whom the Blue Jays pushed until the very end, nearly tempting him away from the $25-million, two-year deal the lefty accepted from the Texas Rangers with a stronger offer.

But their run at Justin Verlander was essentially a sure-why-not heave across the court before the halftime buzzer. They stayed firm on their valuations for Kyle Gibson, Quintana and Kenley Jansen, among others, refusing to extend beyond their comfort levels and follow the path that would have locked them into.

The same thing happened in the trade market, where they and the Cardinals both held their ground, prompting St. Louis to sign Contreras instead of trading for Danny Jansen or Oakland’s Sean Murphy. One industry source believes the Cardinals never engaged on outfielders Lars Nootbar and Dylan Carlson and tried to make a deal with closer Ryan Helsley instead.

Given the type of money Contreras commanded, demonstrating how the industry values such a scarce commodity, and the way the Blue Jays view Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno, there was no need for them to jump when other options remain.

In terms of starting pitching, incumbent Ross Stripling along with fellow free agents Michael Wacha, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber and Drew Smyly, each someone the Blue Jays have pursued in the past, are in the market tier the Blue Jays have shopped in thus far.

Up a notch is Japanese righty Kodai Senga, but he didn’t visit Toronto during his recent tour of potential destinations and the Blue Jays were described as not being at the forefront of his suitors by an industry source. Nate Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt are other options at that level but on both, the Blue Jays don’t seem particularly active, or on upper tier lefty Carlos Rodon.

Their interest in Kenley Jansen is intriguing and a potential path for the Blue Jays is adding stability to the rotation and high-end impact to the bullpen. The White Sox have reportedly discussed trading closer Liam Hendriks, who visited the Blue Jays’ spring facility in Dunedin as a free agent, and that’s a way to really alter the club’s run-prevention equation.

Offensively, free agent centre-fielder Brandon Nimmo remains an ideal fit, but the $90-million, five-year guarantee the Red Sox gave to outfielder Masataka Yoshida suggests bidding for the New York Mets free agent could get wild.

The San Francisco Giants, spurned by Judge, loom large there, too, but the Blue Jays could also aim for Michael Conforto, another Scott Boras client they’ve expressed an interest in, to play right field and add someone like Kevin Kiermaier to play a part-time role in centre field.

Opportunities in the trade market exist for both starters and position players and while costly, there are always ways for the Blue Jays to get creative.

Given all that, the week’s lack of additions for the Blue Jays simply means that their off-season business may drag into January, instead of being neatly wrapped up for the holidays.

[polo007]

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