2023 NBA Draft

[The-Power]

I know its a small sample and hes returning from injury, but so far Nick Smith Jr looks really overrated to me.

I'm leaning the same way (even before the entered college). He looks to me like the kind of player that will really help a college team with his ability to create for himself (even if not always efficiently) as his last game showed but in the NBA, you need to be absolutely elite at that or else you better bring something else to the table because teams have better options available when it comes to high usage roles. I'm not saying he can't find a valuable role for himself in the NBA but in terms of becoming a top player on a good playoff team? I remain skeptical.

Edit: Relatedly, the fears that Black has become more passive again seem to hold true for now. In the three games before Smith Jr. came back, he had 13, 21 and 16 TSA. In the three games since, he had 10, 5 and 9 (roughly calculated). Now, perhaps this would have happened either way and those three consecutive higher-usage games were outliers (he has always been relatively passive for a top prospect). Or perhaps this is just temporary and Black will start being more assertive again even next to Smith Jr. soon. But it's something to note. I hope it's the latter because in my opinion, Black is their best prospect (and it's not all that close either) and could be a special player if he could just be a more aggressive scorer with decent success.

[Braggins]

I know its a small sample and hes returning from injury, but so far Nick Smith Jr looks really overrated to me.

I'm leaning the same way (even before the entered college). He looks to me like the kind of player that will really help a college team with his ability to create for himself (even if not always efficiently) as his last game showed but in the NBA, you need to be absolutely elite at that or else you better bring something else to the table because teams have better options available when it comes to high usage roles. I'm not saying he can't find a valuable role for himself in the NBA but in terms of becoming a top player on a good playoff team? I remain skeptical.

Edit: Relatedly, the fears that Black has become more passive again seem to hold true for now. In the three games before Smith Jr. came back, he had 13, 21 and 16 TSA. In the three games since, he had 10, 5 and 9 (roughly calculated). Now, perhaps this would have happened either way and those three consecutive higher-usage games were outliers (he has always been relatively passive for a top prospect). Or perhaps this is just temporary and Black will start being more assertive again even next to Smith Jr. soon. But it's something to note. I hope it's the latter because in my opinion, Black is their best prospect (and it's not all that close either) and could be a special player if he could just be a more aggressive scorer with decent success.

He looks more like hes 6'3" to 6'4" to me and hes not that athletic. He doesn't look very good at creating separation and a lot of his attempts at self creation end with him just dribbling into traffic and taking terrible shots. His outside shot looks fine, but not convincing that hes necessarily going to be a great shooter, and his playmaking skills look more like a combo guard than a true lead guard. He also has looked pretty weak on defense to me as well.

I'm sure some of this stuff could get better once he gets his legs under him and gets more confident, but the overall package still seems like it might be pretty meh. Small'ish combo guards that aren't particular good athletes, don't defend well, and don't have any elite skills, just generally aren't a great archetype in the NBA.

Anthony Black definitely looks like a much better prospect to me. He seems clearly better at literally everything except outside shooting. Black seems like hes been passive recently specifically because hes been deferring to Smith Jr, but so far its just leading to a lot of stagnant/inefficient offense.

[EvanZ]

How was Dariq Whitehead the #1 prospect coming into this season?

[The Box Office]

I'm reading "The Power" scouting on Amen Thompson.

Man you have hate for the kid. We can't dismiss what you wrote about him, but know that you do hate his game. Absolutely you hate it. There is no other explanation..except..all of a sudden, you beat down Amen Thompson to bring up Ivey and Cam Whitmore to be your potentials for third pick. That's fine to have either as your third pick, but there was no need to beat down Amen in your analysis. Your analysis was too negative.

Amen Thompson is the real deal. He's my number 3 pick and has an argument to be number 2.
Amen can't shoot? Amen is making 86% of his free throws.

OTE's comp is weak unorganized reckless? Well, tell that to Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Shawn Kemp, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Darius Miles, Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, and Kevin Garnett who went to the NBA from high school. High School competition is a big notch lower than Overtime Elite. Even Derrick Rose didn't need to go to Memphis. He could have went straight to the pros.

[NYPiston]

How was Dariq Whitehead the #1 prospect coming into this season?

I was wondering that too.

I'm not one to generally look much into small sample sizes especially this early into a college career but thus far, albeit in limited minutes, I haven't seen one flash of what made Whitehead a top recruit. Maybe it's a confidence issue but I don't see any elite traits in his game, so far.

It makes you wonder why more prospects don't go the Sharpe route and simply sit out a season (although that was partly on Cal). If you're an elite prospect coming out of high school, you're risking a greater chance of your stock dropping than rising by playing a college season.

[clyde21]

pretty obvious why DWH was ranked highly in HS if you watched him play

can't say the same for Lively

[SeattleJazzFan]

kinda crazy that duke got the #1 and #2 recruits and both have been very underwhelming. you'd think you'd hit on at least one of them.

and i agree with clyde that it's clear watching DWH in HS why he was rated so highly, but at this level, he simply isn't showing that he's better than good at anything. decent shooter, decent athlete, decent off the bounce, decent defensively, decent at rebounding his position, decent passer. it's a long season and maybe he'll get there eventually, but it's been a rough go so far in terms of showing attributes that might excite nba people. last night's game was promising just in the sense that scheyer stuck with him down the stretch - hopefully we see more of that.

[clyde21]

still impossible to tell with DWH, he's still being relegated as a spot up guy on offense and that was never his game, the vast majority of Duke's offense right now is running thru Roach/Proc on the perimeter and obviously Flip the rest of the time. Mitchell/DWH just getting whatever the leftovers are. and if the situation remains the same his best bet is to just bounce and get ready for the draft.

and I still wonder why all these dudes just end up going to the same schools just to drown each other out. i almost respect guys who want to go to their own schools and do their own thing, like GG or Keyonte, way more at this point.

[clyde21]

I know its a small sample and hes returning from injury, but so far Nick Smith Jr looks really overrated to me.

I'm leaning the same way (even before the entered college). He looks to me like the kind of player that will really help a college team with his ability to create for himself (even if not always efficiently) as his last game showed but in the NBA, you need to be absolutely elite at that or else you better bring something else to the table because teams have better options available when it comes to high usage roles. I'm not saying he can't find a valuable role for himself in the NBA but in terms of becoming a top player on a good playoff team? I remain skeptical.

Edit: Relatedly, the fears that Black has become more passive again seem to hold true for now. In the three games before Smith Jr. came back, he had 13, 21 and 16 TSA. In the three games since, he had 10, 5 and 9 (roughly calculated). Now, perhaps this would have happened either way and those three consecutive higher-usage games were outliers (he has always been relatively passive for a top prospect). Or perhaps this is just temporary and Black will start being more assertive again even next to Smith Jr. soon. But it's something to note. I hope it's the latter because in my opinion, Black is their best prospect (and it's not all that close either) and could be a special player if he could just be a more aggressive scorer with decent success.

i mean, there are just a lot of mouths to feed, don't see the need for Black to go full Kobe and take every shot, in fact I'm more interested in how he orchestrates the offense and gets all of these dudes involved than anything else at this point, as long as he continues to develop the midrage game and take the points when it's given to him, don't see the issue here.

[ItsDanger]

Nick Smith looks very good to me but not sure if he's quick enough for his style and body type. When I see Arkansas, my eyes gravitate to Anthony Black every time, if his shooting improves could be an elite player.

[EvanZ]

pretty obvious why DWH was ranked highly in HS if you watched him play

can't say the same for Lively

I literally didn't. So please enlighten us.

[EvanZ]

and i agree with clyde that it's clear watching DWH in HS why he was rated so highly, but at this level, he simply isn't showing that he's better than good at anything.

Then...it quite clearly wasn't clear was it? You rank prospects according to their *future* potential not their present. You literally just told me in the same sentence that he's not elite at anything.

So again...why was he the NUMBER ONE recruit? Very odd.

[NYPiston]

still impossible to tell with DWH, he's still being relegated as a spot up guy on offense and that was never his game, the vast majority of Duke's offense right now is running thru Roach/Proc on the perimeter and obviously Flip the rest of the time. Mitchell/DWH just getting whatever the leftovers are. and if the situation remains the same his best bet is to just bounce and get ready for the draft.

and I still wonder why all these dudes just end up going to the same schools just to drown each other out. i almost respect guys who want to go to their own schools and do their own thing, like GG or Keyonte, way more at this point.

GG sure but Keyonte is at an elite program loaded with upperclassmen and good recruits yet he's still flashing elite traits in a more prominent role. Whitmore came back and immediately showed some high level stuff. Whitehead got some key playing time last night and looked like a deer in headlights, just like he did in the previous games.

In fairness to him, it's still so early in his career, he returned from injury not too long ago and he hasn't really been given much of an opportunity to shine but I'm just looking for one or two flash from him that makes me say "Oh, this guy has elite potential". Just haven't seen much of anything from him, yet. He had one nice drive to the hoop last night for an and 1 so lets see more of that.

[clyde21]

pretty obvious why DWH was ranked highly in HS if you watched him play

can't say the same for Lively

I literally didn't. So please enlighten us.

because he was a monster in HS. pretty straightforward stuff. funny how you weren't here talking about how he shouldn't have been ranked so highly then.

[clyde21]

still impossible to tell with DWH, he's still being relegated as a spot up guy on offense and that was never his game, the vast majority of Duke's offense right now is running thru Roach/Proc on the perimeter and obviously Flip the rest of the time. Mitchell/DWH just getting whatever the leftovers are. and if the situation remains the same his best bet is to just bounce and get ready for the draft.

and I still wonder why all these dudes just end up going to the same schools just to drown each other out. i almost respect guys who want to go to their own schools and do their own thing, like GG or Keyonte, way more at this point.

GG sure but Keyonte is at an elite program loaded with upperclassmen and good recruits yet he's still flashing elite traits in a more prominent role. Whitmore came back and immediately showed some high level stuff. Whitehead got some key playing time last night and looked like a deer in headlights, just like he did in the previous games.

In fairness to him, it's still so early in his career, he returned from injury not too long ago and he hasn't really been given much of an opportunity to shine but I'm just looking for one or two flash from him that makes me say "Oh, this guy has elite potential". Just haven't seen much of anything from him, yet. He had one nice drive to the hoop last night for an and 1 so lets see more of that.

what are you talking about? the next Baylor commit this year was Ojianwuna who was the 156th ranked recruit. that's not the same as Duke or Kentucky or Arkansas this year getting multiple top10 or 5* guys.

[NYPiston]

much of anything from him, yet. He had one nice drive to the hoop last night for an and 1 so lets see more of that.

what are you talking about? the next Baylor commit this year was Ojianwuna who was the 156th ranked recruit. that's not the same as Duke or Kentucky or Arkansas this year getting multiple top10 or 5* guys.

Never said that Baylor had Duke level recruits but... fair enough.
Still, their best players are upperclassmen guards and George is still showing out. It's not like GG Jackson that is surrounded by lower level D-1 players.

[clyde21]

much of anything from him, yet. He had one nice drive to the hoop last night for an and 1 so lets see more of that.

what are you talking about? the next Baylor commit this year was Ojianwuna who was the 156th ranked recruit. that's not the same as Duke or Kentucky or Arkansas this year getting multiple top10 or 5* guys.

Never said that Baylor had Duke level recruits but... fair enough.
Still, their best players are upperclassmen guards and George is still showing out. It's not like GG Jackson that is surrounded by lower level D-1 players.[/quote]

my point is these players need to go to places that will actually feature and showcase them, when a bunch of top recruits all go to 1 spot someone will inevitably get washed out.

next year Wagner, Bradshaw and Edwards all are going to UK and are top 10 guys...guess what's gonna happen to at least one of them?

not saying players can't go to elite programs. but if an elite program already has a bunch of guys that are playing your position, go somewhere else. i'd imagine if DWH went to Auburn instead for example we might be having a different convo.

[SeattleJazzFan]

and i agree with clyde that it's clear watching DWH in HS why he was rated so highly, but at this level, he simply isn't showing that he's better than good at anything.

Then...it quite clearly wasn't clear was it? You rank prospects according to their *future* potential not their present. You literally just told me in the same sentence that he's not elite at anything.

So again...why was he the NUMBER ONE recruit? Very odd.

he was dominant HS player who looked like he had a chance to be special, but his abilities haven't translated to this level - as of yet. sorry, i thought that was understood, but thanks for asking for clarification!

[Hal14]

Read on Twitter

Bummer. I had Brazile down as a late 1st rounder before.

Not sure how far this makes him drop. Assuming there's a good chance he will be back at Arkansas next year, though..

[clyde21]

he's gone, no reason to come back, heal up and get drafted.