2023 NBA Draft

Hal14 · Post #1021 » by **Hal14** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 9:50 pm

clyde21 wrote:he's gone, no reason to come back, heal up and get drafted.

the reason to come back is to improve his draft stock.

Let's see how the mock drafts are looking come March. Good chance he's not even in the top 58, and if he is, it's late 2nd round because teams might be scared to take the risk on an injured player.

But if he takes the rest of the season and the summer to rehab and get healthy, he could end up being a 1st rounder (maybe even lottery) in 2024..

We saw the same thing happen last year with Sasser. He suffered a season ending injury early in the season. Came back for another year of college.

clyde21 · Post #1022 » by **clyde21** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 9:52 pm

there is just as good of a chance he ruins his draft stock instead of make it better, what's the ceiling if he goes back? still a late 1st rounder? high risk low reward play.

get healthy and do well in interviews, and he will be drafted. again very little reason to return.

EvanZ · Post #1023 » by **EvanZ** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 10:36 pm

My bet is there's not enough interest especially coming off a season-ending knee injury. UDFA at best if he declares this season.

It's unfortunate.

The-Power · Post #1024 » by **The-Power** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 1:22 am

clyde21 wrote:
The-Power wrote:
Braggins wrote:I know its a small sample and hes returning from injury, but so far Nick Smith Jr looks really overrated to me.

I'm leaning the same way (even before the entered college). He looks to me like the kind of player that will really help a college team with his ability to create for himself (even if not always efficiently) as his last game showed but in the NBA, you need to be absolutely elite at that or else you better bring something else to the table because teams have better options available when it comes to high usage roles. I'm not saying he can't find a valuable role for himself in the NBA but in terms of becoming a top player on a good playoff team? I remain skeptical.

Edit: Relatedly, the fears that Black has become more passive again seem to hold true for now. In the three games before Smith Jr. came back, he had 13, 21 and 16 TSA. In the three games since, he had 10, 5 and 9 (roughly calculated). Now, perhaps this would have happened either way and those three consecutive higher-usage games were outliers (he has always been relatively passive for a top prospect). Or perhaps this is just temporary and Black will start being more assertive again even next to Smith Jr. soon. But it's something to note. I hope it's the latter because in my opinion, Black is their best prospect (and it's not all that close either) and could be a special player if he could just be a more aggressive scorer with decent success.

i mean, there are just a lot of mouths to feed, don't see the need for Black to go full Kobe and take every shot, in fact I'm more interested in how he orchestrates the offense and gets all of these dudes involved than anything else at this point, as long as he continues to develop the midrage game and take the points when it's given to him, don't see the issue here.

It's a question about ceiling to me. I agree that it's good to see him score when he has an opportunity but you want your lead Guard to be able to create shots for himself at will. There are a lot of mouths to feed on NBA teams. If you want to be a franchise player playing in a perimeter role, odds are that you're going to have to be an excellent scorer and shot creator for yourself and not just for others. And if Black could show that he has that potential, that would increase his value.

I'm not saying he's necessarily ‘wrong’ for playing this way. But he has been comparatively passive already in HS. Even with being passive, as long as he can score when there is an opportunity, he can be a very good NBA player and be entrusted with ball handling duties. So we don't disagree that this is the most important aspect. It's just that if he could be a 28-30 PTS per 100 on 58-60% TS type of player – rather than a 20-22 PTS per 100 on 60-62% TS one – in college then that would increase my faith that he could become the primary offensive option on an NBA playoff team. If he continues to defer, he can still be an important offensive player for his team but probably lacks a path to becoming a true franchise player.

The-Power · Post #1025 » by **The-Power** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 1:33 am

By the way, I just compiled some commensurate numbers to compare the Freshmen that I currently see as having a realistic chance to be in or enter the top 10 conversation (in no particular order) and noted down what I see as ‘positives’ and ‘negatives’ thus far (based on the numbers and my impressions when watching them). If I find the time, I'll update at different points during the season to trace their development. Of course I'd like to hear your opinions on these players and what or who I'm missing.

Format

PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK ||| TOV | PF (All Per 100 Possessions) – MPG, MP
2P% | 3P% | FT% | TS% ||| 3Par | FTr ||| OBPM | DBPM | BPM

As of: 7 December 2022 (Source: Sports Reference)

Anthony Black

Spoiler:

Julian Phillips

Spoiler:

Jarace Walker

Spoiler:

Keyonte George

Spoiler:

Brandon Miller

Spoiler:

Jett Howard

Spoiler:

GG Jackson

Spoiler:

Gradey Dick

Spoiler:

Cason Wallace

Spoiler:

Taylor Hendricks

Spoiler:

Cam Whitmore

––– tbd

Nick Smith Jr.

––– tbd

Dariq Whitehead

––– tbd

clyde21 · Post #1026 » by **clyde21** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 5:12 am

Hawkins, Sanogo and Jackson are just so fun to watch...this Uconn team is legit

i have no problem drafting Andre Jackson tbh despite his inability to consistently score, glue guy extraordinaire

The-Power · Post #1027 » by **The-Power** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 6:18 am

The Box Office wrote:I'm reading "The Power" scouting on Amen Thompson.

Man you have hate for the kid.

On the contrary, I'm not emotionally attached to any of these prospects in any kind of way. If I prefer one over the other, that's purely based on what I value in prospects and what my concerns are – which, in turn, is based on how I view the current NBA.

You are free to rank the twins highly. I'm not even saying you're necessarily wrong in doing that (unlike you telling me that I definitely am). Even I haven't made up my mind yet on where exactly I'd rank them. But stop this juvenile nonsense about ‘hate’ that adds nothing to an adult conversation. I elaborated on the points I made even if you may disagree, and that is a whole lot more than you contributed right now.

The-Power · Post #1028 » by **The-Power** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 6:24 am

Also, Cam Whitmore with a very strong second game. He's still trying to showcase his ability more than playing the ideal way but that's to be expected and doesn't hurt his draft stock. He reminds me of Jonathan Kuminga with more advanced ball handling skills, and that's a damn good prospect. Shot looks better, too (even though not very trustworthy yet either), and he's stronger but on the other hand not quite as explosive and quick. Still, similar archetype except that he should be able to do a bit more off the dribble.

crows2 · Post #1029 » by **crows2** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 8:13 am

After a month of watching all the other OADs try and fail, will Whitmore be the one to finally distinguish himself as the best prospect in college? It's seeming that way.

The-Power · Post #1030 » by **The-Power** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 8:36 am

Moved this out of the GG Jackson thread as it is OT there.

Hal14 wrote:
Catchall wrote:
SeattleJazzFan wrote:
i thought the knock on thompson was that he can't shoot. PG has always been a shooter.

Yeah, the 3p shooting and FT shooting are still a problem for Ausar at this point.

Ausar is shooting 43% from 3 so far this season.

33% not 43%. This is what happens when you use percentages for small samples and repeat them without context – the numbers change quickly. He's 6/18 (33%) on 3s and 16/27 (59%) on FTs for the regular season. In pre-season, he was 1/13 (8%) on 3s, 8/12 (67%) on FTs. Taken together, he's been 7/31 (23%) on 3s, and 24/39 (62%) on FTs since September. And that doesn't take into account shot difficulty either. So yes, shooting is very much still a concern.

And I'm not sure these are good faith arguments at this point. With Ausar, people repeat the 3P% but don't even mention the tiny sample or take into account other games (like pre-season) either. Now he missed five 3s and his % dropped by 10. That's the reality of small samples. With Amen, I've seen people mention the 83% on FTs but not acknowledge the tiny sample (15/18) yet again. And for some reason, with Ausar it's 3P% to show that he can shoot but for Amen it's FT%. I wonder why? Perhaps because he's 2/14 (14%) on 3s (6/28, or 21%, if we take into account pre-season as well)? Also, once again if we factor in pre-season where he went 19/30 (63%) on FTs, the numbers look considerably worse. But I suppose he improved his FT shooting by 20% overnight, and it's not a matter of sample size, correct?

Seriously, anyone who argues that there are no shooting concerns with the Thompson twins because of cherry-picked stats from tiny and conveniently cut samples cannot be taken seriously. That may work in the YouTube comment section but not on a board where people actually pay attention and know something about how to contextualize numbers.

edit: And since another user mentioned players like Kobe and LeBron as examples to downplay concerns about competition as they were drafted straight out of high school: just because some players pan out does not mean that it's not riskier to pick players without seeing them play versus college competition first as opposed to just HS competition. That much should be obvious to anyone. But also, one issue is that the Thompson twins should be Sophomores in college age-wise. It's very different playing HS competition when you're 17 (like LeBron and Kobe) as opposed 19 (soon 20) years old as is the case for the twins.

The Box Office · Post #1031 » by **The Box Office** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 9:05 am

The-Power wrote:
The Box Office wrote:I'm reading "The Power" scouting on Amen Thompson.

Man you have hate for the kid.

On the contrary, I'm not emotionally attached to any of these prospects in any kind of way. If I prefer one over the other, that's purely based on what I value in prospects and what my concerns are – which, in turn, is based on how I view the current NBA.

You are free to rank the twins highly. I'm not even saying you're necessarily wrong in doing that (unlike you telling me that I definitely am). Even I haven't made up my mind yet on where exactly I'd rank them. But stop this juvenile nonsense about ‘hate’ that adds nothing to an adult conversation. I elaborated on the points I made even if you may disagree, and that is a whole lot more than you contributed right now.

You got called out for it. That's all. Now you're in self defense mode. Try to stay neutral in your analysis next time.

crows2 · Post #1032 » by **crows2** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 9:48 am

The-Power wrote:So, I now watched 3 full Overtime Elite games from the past couple weeks (Amen played in all 3, his brother only in 1) and honestly, I'd be scared to death to draft them in the top 5 if I were a decision-maker on an NBA team.

The level of play is just so bad compared to college and G-League. Little talent, no structure, no value of possessions, almost no size. Essentially, they dominate a competition of teenagers playing pick-up basketball. Tough to take too much away from that.

Now, that being said, they are clearly exciting prospects in some aspects and you obviously draft them (and not too low either), but the question to which extent their games translate to the NBA level has to scare teams off at least to some degree.

But just looking at them at prospects, here's what we're looking at (based on my observations, and based mostly Amen Thompson's play) – from good to bad:

– Athleticism: They absolutely are ridiculous quick-twitch athletes. Great first step, great speed and agility, finish easily above the rim. They will be high-level NBA athletes without a doubt, and a menace in transition. One note of caution, though: they lack physical strength compared to other players who are primarily paint-finishers. That could be an issue, and it'll be relevant to see how much they can catch up in this area.

– Defense: Yes, I can see them being awesome on-ball defenders. Super quick, long, some good screen navigation (although the NBA is an entirely different beast in that regard) and for the level of play, they do play with a good motor (although the shot contests on jump shots are often weak, but that could just be because players in that league for the most part can't really shoot well). Off-ball defense remains to be seen. They just haven't had to focus on that in that competition, so it doesn't always look great but since it's rarely punished it's hard to fault them too much for it.

– Playmaking: I've seen Amen make a bunch of good reads. BUT: those are mostly easy reads because defenses leave players wide open and do not have the length or organization, and in some cases athleticism, to recover and disrupt those passes. So the reads may look advanced until you notice that the player who receives the ball is often wide open and open for a long time. Still a good foundation to have that, but it remains to be seen if they can also make faster and less obvious reads at the next level. The passes themselves are nothing to write home about. Not many passes are right in the pocket, I've seen lots of passes that went too low, high, left or right, and that's a problem in the NBA. The question is whether that will improve once they play more serious competition when stuff like this actually matters. At this point, they'll have to rely on making relatively easy reads and passes off of defensive rotations they set in motion with their driving threat. That's fine, though – IF they can break down NBA defenses consistently, which remains to be seen.

– Ballhandling: They are creative and fairly fluid, so that's a plus. That being said, I wonder how functional the handles really are. For instance, in three games I've seen Amen get picked and turn it over at least 5 or 6 times on just his spin move! And that's against defenders that are nowhere near as disruptive as players on good college teams, not to mention the NBA. I could also see a lot of carrying violations in their future if the NBA continues to call them tight. So while I do believe they have the foundation to operate off the dribble in the NBA – at least to some degree – I do have concerns about their flash-over-substance style of dribbling.

– Shooting: This is the real issue. Because if opponents can just dare you to shoot and you either refuse to take the shot or just brick too many, you'll have a lot problems in the NBA as a wing. For starters, there's zero chance that you can be a consistent on-ball initiator. So even if you are a great athlete with a functional handle who can pass the ball, that's still not enough if you can't at least hit open shots somewhat reliably. And when you're off the ball, you hurt your team's spacing and coaches don't like that. I wouldn't say they are hopeless cases as shooters BUT: they can get every open shot they want in that league, and yet there are still a bunch of unbelievable bricks among them. It's definitely going to be an uphill battle for them I fear.

And one last note on finishing: when they can load up, they are tough to stop. Give them a driving lane or an open court and they are gone. I've also seen some finishes with solid touch. But I've also seen some really poor finishing attempts around the rim when contested and an NBA (or even college) paint is an entirely different animal. This is also where the physicality question comes in. It doesn't matter how quick and explosive you are: if you can't move defenders in the paint and you don't have a ridiculous lay-up package either, you're going to end up with a lot of ugly shot attempts when contested.

To sum it up: I do see the appeal of two players with good size who are that athletic and show some on-ball creativity. But there are some serious concerns that would make me seriously hesitate to pick them over more proven players. The twins are clearly players who look A LOT better on highlight mixtapes because you see all the ridiculously explosive plays on both ends, the creative finishes and passes, some breakdowns of defenders with a flashy move, and the shots that go in. But what you don't see are the numerous bricks, how defenses give them all the shots they want without being punished, the ugly turnovers and passes that are way off, all the times that the finishes around the rim don't work. It's essentially a highlight mixtape from HS pick-up basketball – and there have been way too many players who have had awesome mixtapes in HS but never amounted to much. And while I'm not saying that's the case here necessarily, it's definitely not something we can rule out yet and that has to be taken into account when we talk about the NBA draft where franchises have A TON riding on their rare high lottery picks.

I thought this was a pretty thorough analysis by someone who actually watched a number of full games. I'm not sure what the problem is?

The-Power · Post #1033 » by **The-Power** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 10:25 am

crows2 wrote:After a month of watching all the other OADs try and fail, will Whitmore be the one to finally distinguish himself as the best prospect in college? It's seeming that way.

It's too soon but the early returns on Whitmore are certainly very promising. I don't at all think that it's a slam dunk yet that he'll end up as the best college prospect but I do agree that he's in the driver's seat for me personally. The main competition, I think, are Black, Walker, and George. But the latter two in particular would have to find another gear in terms of scoring. Brandon Miller and GG Jackson are possibilities, too, but more of a long shot in my eyes. I like Howard, Phillips, probably Hendricks (need to watch him more) and – possibly – Wallace, Dick, Whitehead and Smith Jr. as potential lottery picks but ‘best college prospect’ is probably a bit too much to ask.

Given that I have been among those that have been less enthusiastic about the top Freshmen this year than many up to this point, I want to quickly stand up for them. I do believe many of the best prospects have performed really well. Just looking at the currently ranked teams, we have Jarace Walker being a key player for #1 Houston, Dillon Mitchell being fully trusted on #2 Texas, Gradey Dick playing an important role for #6 Kansas, Julian Phillips being one of the best players on #7 Tennessee, Brandon Miller leading #8 Alabama, Anthony Black – and probably Nick Smith Jr. – co-leading #9 Arkansas, Keyonte George leading #12 Baylor in usage, four Freshmen starting for #15 Duke, Cason Wallace leading #16 Kentucky in MPG, and Amari Bailey playing a good role on #19 UCLA.

Many of the top recruits from last year play on elite NCAA teams and the vast majority of them are key players for their teams already. That should not be underestimated, especially since the players are largely spread out and compete on their teams with established Sophomores or Upperclassmen for touches and minutes. This could also explain why some of these players – although far from all – have been somewhat limited in their roles. They contribute to winning and that's very valuable for scouts to see.

Hal14 · Post #1034 » by **Hal14** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 1:46 pm

The-Power wrote:Moved this out of the GG Jackson thread as it is OT there.

Hal14 wrote:
Catchall wrote:
Yeah, the 3p shooting and FT shooting are still a problem for Ausar at this point.

Ausar is shooting 43% from 3 so far this season.

33% not 43%. This is what happens when you use percentages for small samples and repeat them without context – the numbers change quickly. He's 6/18 (33%) on 3s and 16/27 (59%) on FTs for the regular season. In pre-season, he was 1/13 (8%) on 3s, 8/12 (67%) on FTs. Taken together, he's been 7/31 (23%) on 3s, and 24/39 (62%) on FTs since September. And that doesn't take into account shot difficulty either. So yes, shooting is very much still a concern.

And I'm not sure these are good faith arguments at this point. With Ausar, people repeat the 3P% but don't even mention the tiny sample or take into account other games (like pre-season) either. Now he missed five 3s and his % dropped by 10. That's the reality of small samples. With Amen, I've seen people mention the 83% on FTs but not acknowledge the tiny sample (15/18) yet again. And for some reason, with Ausar it's 3P% to show that he can shoot but for Amen it's FT%. I wonder why? Perhaps because he's 2/14 (14%) on 3s (6/28, or 21%, if we take into account pre-season as well)? Also, once again if we factor in pre-season where he went 19/30 (63%) on FTs, the numbers look considerably worse. But I suppose he improved his FT shooting by 20% overnight, and it's not a matter of sample size, correct?

Seriously, anyone who argues that there are no shooting concerns with the Thompson twins because of cherry-picked stats from tiny and conveniently cut samples cannot be taken seriously. That may work in the YouTube comment section but not on a board where people actually pay attention and know something about how to contextualize numbers.

edit: And since another user mentioned players like Kobe and LeBron as examples to downplay concerns about competition as they were drafted straight out of high school: just because some players pan out does not mean that it's not riskier to pick players without seeing them play versus college competition first as opposed to just HS competition. That much should be obvious to anyone. But also, one issue is that the Thompson twins should be Sophomores in college age-wise. It's very different playing HS competition when you're 17 (like LeBron and Kobe) as opposed 19 (soon 20) years old as is the case for the twins.

woah, chill out man. 43% is what was posted the other day - I hadn't seen anything more recent than that.

Nobody brings up preseason stats for any other player so clearly you have an agenda, going out of your way to pull preseason stats into your argument to try and trash a 19 year old kid, smh.

Hey guys, Bird and Magic is a good debate. But Magic scored more points in the preseason so he was definitely the better player :lol:

ItsDanger · Post #1035 » by **ItsDanger** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 4:14 pm

The current top 8 overall teams have the following centers: Horford, Lopez, Allen, Claxton, Valunciunas, Ayton, Adams, Jokic.

Not exactly the most mobile defenders as a group. Not really great 3 pt shooting either. Perhaps GMs need to address their thinking.

EvanZ · Post #1036 » by **EvanZ** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 7:20 pm

ItsDanger wrote:The current top 8 overall teams have the following centers: Horford, Lopez, Allen, Claxton, Valunciunas, Ayton, Adams, Jokic.

Not exactly the most mobile defenders as a group. Not really great 3 pt shooting either. Perhaps GMs need to address their thinking.

Weird flex and not accurate? Boston has RWIII who's injured but extremely mobile. Allen and Claxton are extremely mobile. So is Ayton. Jokic is not a great defender, but he's adequate and maybe the best offensive center of all time.

Perhaps RealGMs need to address their thinking.

ItsDanger · Post #1037 » by **ItsDanger** » Thu Dec 8, 2022 7:36 pm

EvanZ wrote:
ItsDanger wrote:The current top 8 overall teams have the following centers: Horford, Lopez, Allen, Claxton, Valunciunas, Ayton, Adams, Jokic.

Not exactly the most mobile defenders as a group. Not really great 3 pt shooting either. Perhaps GMs need to address their thinking.

Weird flex and not accurate? Boston has RWIII who's injured but extremely mobile. Allen and Claxton are extremely mobile. So is Ayton. Jokic is not a great defender, but he's adequate and maybe the best offensive center of all time.

Perhaps RealGMs need to address their thinking.

Allen is not mobile enough to guard the perimeter effectively. RWIII hasn't played yet. Claxton is not a good defender. Jokic isn't good defensively either. Its amazing how Lopez can be effective playing drop coverage all the time.

Once you get out of top 15 or so when you draft offensive talent, you need to focus more on role players. Drafting low BBIQ athletic guys who can't shoot is a waste of time.

The-Power · Post #1038 » by **The-Power** » Fri Dec 9, 2022 12:30 am

Hal14 wrote:woah, chill out man. 43% is what was posted the other day - I hadn't seen anything more recent than that.

I am very chill. I know he was at 43%. The point is that it was a tiny sample. So either you missed the sample size, or you were deliberately ignoring it. Either way, it wasn't a solid argument to alleviate shooting concerns.

Hal14 wrote:Nobody brings up preseason stats for any other player so clearly you have an agenda, going out of your way to pull preseason stats into your argument to try and trash a 19 year old kid, smh.

Hey guys, Bird and Magic is a good debate. But Magic scored more points in the preseason so he was definitely the better player

Yikes. This feels like blatant trolling but I'll give it one last try.

1) I don't have an ‘agenda’. Why would I? I'm not emotionally attached to any prospect, I'm just trying to have a good-faith discussion which seems impossible when anyone who raises concerns is called a ‘hater’ or someone with an ‘agenda’, and disingenuous arguments are made. You bring up his 3P% in response to someone voicing concern over his shooting but omit the fact that it was based on a tiny sample and disregard his FT%, and I'm the one with an agenda? That's quite ironic. Does his current 3P% mean that he can't shoot again, or is it only a valid reference when it supports your stance?

2) If you want to determine how good of a shooter a player is, you use all the data available to you when data is already scarce. Why should we disregard pre-season when this is an additional data point that helps us gauge his current shooting ability? Tell me one good reason why pre-season shooting data is useless for assessing a player's ability to shoot (especially when the samples are already small, so it's important to get past the noise). For Sophomores and Upperclassmen, people also always look at previous seasons to try and assess a player's trajectory and sustainability of performance. And that's knowing that they may have simply improved – nobody improves their shooting ability from pre-season to regular season.

I hope I don't have to explain to you why the Magic-Bird example is completely besides the point. Pre-season is meaningless when talking about legacy but this is not what the draft is about, is it? By your logic, a player who doesn't play in college due to injury should not be judged by his HS performances because ‘nobody talks about HS with other players’ – except that scouts do, especially when sample sizes are small. If Cason Wallace, who currently is 6/12 (50%) on FTs, gets injured tomorrow, you better believe that everyone will be looking at historical data (HS, Team USA and yes, pre-season stats if available) to evaluate his ability to shoot FTs and not simply believe he's a terrible FT shooter. Because there's zero reason not to use that data.

clyde21 · Post #1039 » by **clyde21** » Fri Dec 9, 2022 1:17 am

ItsDanger wrote:The current top 8 overall teams have the following centers: Horford, Lopez, Allen, Claxton, Valunciunas, Ayton, Adams, Jokic.

Not exactly the most mobile defenders as a group. Not really great 3 pt shooting either. Perhaps GMs need to address their thinking.

i dont understand your point...are you suggesting immobile centers should be drafted high?

clyde21 · Post #1040 » by **clyde21** » Fri Dec 9, 2022 1:33 am

is Sensabaugh a 1AD?

is he gonna Malaki Branham it?