Will a slow rebuild work with the current lottery format? Have Weltman/Hammond not adjusted their strategy?

[The-Stallion70]

14%

That's the percentage shot we get at Victor Wembanyanma if we got one of the worst records. That's it. That's what all of this "tanking" is for, really? They are Banking too much on such a small percentage shot at the superstar player.

That's not worth it man, to completely tank again and forgo free agency and trades and just rely too heavily on the draft. I'm not sure I believe Welman and Hammond have adjusted their management strategy to the new lottery odds.

The idea of a slow, steady rebuild won't work with the new lottery odds. That rule change should have encouraged teams to each adopt more aggressive management strategies like Miami who continually seek out players in the G league, Free agency and trades

Personally, I believe that if the Magic get Victor or Scoot then Weltham will then begin to consolidate assets and try to move other young guys for a star. Then they will roll with

Wembanyanma/Scoot
Paolo
Franz
*star we trade for*

And follow the same model the Suns made when they traded for CP.

But if you ask me they are banking too much on an outdated management strategy.

[thelead]

Now, what if we miss out on Wemby and Scoot and still draft an all-star guard? This is a DEEP draft. Just have to get the pick right.

[Skybox]

for all the tankers vs anti-tankers debates...I hope we all agree that this summer should be the last shot at a high pick.

Personally, I'd be happy for a big trade whenever some young star suddenly becomes available...but this Summer better be fireworks.

I'm nervous about another guy with a toothpick physique, despite the skill-level that allows him to dominate lesser mortals pre-NBA....Scoot's got that Donovan Mitchell-type physicality and intense demeanor. I know Scoot really can't go #1, but I'll sleep better with pick #2 honestly. Good looking draft tho and we have another chance to own it.

[VFX]

Some people just don't understand this...

There is zero reason for Orlando to compete this season. Their best player, and asset, is a rookie. 14% while missing the playoffs is still better than 11.5%, 9%, 7.5%, 6%, and 3.2% while missing the playoffs.

The goal is obviously not to bring on a bunch of vets THIS season to surround the youth and compete for the playoffs. There is a timeframe with the contracts and decisions still need to be made.

In regards to the draft odds... This FO has obviously outweighed the pros and cons of "tanking" by holding players out longer than needed and not balancing the roster out via trades. Thats about all they can really do to tank.

Now, IF the front office doesn't make any major decisions this offseason, then they should be fired. Franz and Suggs in year 3 should be playing with adequate talent. Paolo should be better and playing with better talent in year 2. It doesn't take 3 seasons to build a real roster after moving away from Vuc, AG, and Fournier.

I agree with you that they are targeting Wembanyanma, and Scoot to a lesser extent.

It's not an outdated strategy. They are merely maximizing the percentage of landing a generational prospect at the cost of nothing. Talent level doesn't drop off for players if they aren't winning for one season. That is a myth.

[HayKee]

What people miss with the flattening of the lottery odds is that tanking to the maximum limits your downside risk. The team with the worst record in the NBA can only fall to #5, the second worst team can fall to #6, and so on. If your team is going to be bad, you might as well ensure that you're going to get a top 5 pick rather than wasting a year only to fall past the difference making prospects.

But yeah, as others have said this is the final year of it. Or the FO is gone.

[The-Stallion70]

What people miss with the flattening of the lottery odds is that tanking to the maximum limits your downside risk. The team with the worst record in the NBA can only fall to #5

The team with the worst record used to be guaranteed top 4 under the old format.

[HayKee]

What people miss with the flattening of the lottery odds is that tanking to the maximum limits your downside risk. The team with the worst record in the NBA can only fall to #5

The team with the worst record used to be guaranteed top 4 under the old format.

So the incentive still exists just in a slightly decreased form. Unfortunately I don't think there is a real solution to tanking in the NBA.

[jezzerinho]

The solution is simple. Teams who have been awarded high lottery picks in one year should be deducted lottery balls if they find themselves with one of the worse records in the subsequent year.

The league helps a team. Then the team shows up at the door again looking for the same help. And again. And again.

What should the league do? Keep rewarding incompetence and brazen cheating? C'mon. At some point a failing team has to make its own decisions and moves to be better.

[drsd]

Now, what if we miss out on Wemby and Scoot and still draft an all-star guard? This is a DEEP draft. Just have to get the pick right.

This is a wing heavy draft. And the Magic look to get two bites at this apple.

But in the end, unless the Magic go top-2, if a Anfernee Simons or Bradley Beal is available, I am fine with the Magic trading half the team and three or four picks to get a proven SG. Example: Fultz, Bamba, Okeke, Ross, the two 2023 FRPs, and a 2025 FRP for Beal: I would be very, very happy with that deal.

[drsd]

What people miss with the flattening of the lottery odds is that tanking to the maximum limits your downside risk. The team with the worst record in the NBA can only fall to #5

The team with the worst record used to be guaranteed top 4 under the old format.

So the incentive still exists just in a slightly decreased form. Unfortunately I don't think there is a real solution to tanking in the NBA.

It is not "slightly decreased"; it is heavily decreased. The mostly likely draft slot for the worst team is #5.


..

[Knightro]

There is zero reason for Orlando to compete this season. Their best player, and asset, is a rookie. 14% while missing the playoffs is still better than 11.5%, 9%, 7.5%, 6%, and 3.2% while missing the playoffs.

Bingo.

If you're not a team capable of making the playoffs, you're better off being the worst team in the league.

20 wins is a better outcome than 30 wins every single time.

[axl_c_cool]

This, whatever happens this summer a combination of players and picks need to be moved to surround 2 23 FRPs, Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs.

WCJ, Bol, Anthony, Okeke, Isaac, Fultz, Hampton, all need to be moved for some high level veteran role players

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[axl_c_cool]

That's a bit of an overpay, Beal has a BIG contract, maybe just the Chi pick and not ours, added to the Denver pick and Hampton added to the deal. Good deal in general.

That leaves WCJ, Bol, Anthony, and Okeke

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[axl_c_cool]

This teams average is 26, teams dont win with their best player under 25

Most have said it about tanking, we have to guarantee a top 5/6 pick. To be a contender the roster looks like this (if the core develops)

Suggs/Anthony*
?/?
Wagner
Banchero/Bol*
?/WCJ*

Anthony, Bol, and WCJ could all have roles off the bench, but would need to develop, as would Suggs to be a starting PG. He can play there with our 2 point forwards, and with ejst he offers on the defensive end, if he becomes an average offensive threat.

The 2 main areas are SG, C, and high level bench/role players, that's who we need to target in the draft



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[p0peye]

I dont know, so far we have two 1st picks in our starting lineup, but I feel like we should go for full lineup. I am not saying 6th man should be a 1st pick, but we all agree it would good as we need a good bench too.

[HayKee]

The team with the worst record used to be guaranteed top 4 under the old format.

So the incentive still exists just in a slightly decreased form. Unfortunately I don't think there is a real solution to tanking in the NBA.

It is not "slightly decreased"; it is heavily decreased. The mostly likely draft slot for the worst team is #5.


..

Yeah I guess, slightly decreased is underselling it. But even with the changes it still makes sense to maximize the tank. The upside is heavily decreased. The downside reduction still exists. If your options are tanking to the maximum or putting out a team with the 5-8 worst record, you're still guaranteeing yourself a top 5 pick if you really suck. With every team you're better than, the downside range of your pick is increased.

Dear god let this rebuild work so we can never have this discussion again.

[flying_mollusk]

If we don’t win the lottery the pick could still have immense value in a trade where put all our chips in.

Also, in fairness to Weham, they’ve drafted pretty well. Wagner and Banchero in back to back drafts. The Cole pick also was also solid even if not the best player ultimately. Isaac is an injury issue and Bamba an effort issue.

[Stormofreign]

14%

That's the percentage shot we get at Victor Wembanyanma if we got one of the worst records. That's it. That's what all of this "tanking" is for, really? They are Banking too much on such a small percentage shot at the superstar player.

That's not worth it man, to completely tank again and forgo free agency and trades and just rely too heavily on the draft. I'm not sure I believe Welman and Hammond have adjusted their management strategy to the new lottery odds.

The idea of a slow, steady rebuild won't work with the new lottery odds. That rule change should have encouraged teams to each adopt more aggressive management strategies like Miami who continually seek out players in the G league, Free agency and trades

Personally, I believe that if the Magic get Victor or Scoot then Weltham will then begin to consolidate assets and try to move other young guys for a star. Then they will roll with

Wembanyanma/Scoot
Paolo
Franz
*star we trade for*

And follow the same model the Suns made when they traded for CP.

But if you ask me they are banking too much on an outdated management strategy.

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[ogmagicfan]

We got like 2/3rd of a season left of being really bad. We'll see where we land with our pick & the Bulls pick in this deep draft. If we get a top 2 pick we can be in a very special position. If we don't, this guard is still guard heavy and we can grab someone that could turn out to be a top tier contributor or trade one or both the picks for a top guard if one is avaliable.

We still have major cap space as well and have to use it.

Our team should at least be in a play-in team next season and will look very different personnel wise next season.

[drsd]

If the Magic does not go top-2 with its pick, I am hopeful the Magic trade out of the draft entirely for a competent starting-quality SG. There are many scenarios that create that. Orlando has interesting assets to create a real core of a team.