Will a slow rebuild work with the current lottery format? Have Weltman/Hammond not adjusted their strategy?

[MagicFan101]

Now, what if we miss out on Wemby and Scoot and still draft an all-star guard? This is a DEEP draft. Just have to get the pick right.

Yes, great point.

Remember, a few years ago it was widely considered a 5 man draft. We got a top 5 pick and got our guy in Suggs. Meanwhile, many fans were upset with our choice of Franz Wagner. How’s that looking now?????

Point is, while Wemby and Scoot are the BIG prizes there are absolutely other talents to be had.

[pepe1991]

I still don't see scenario where Magic have worst record than Spurs, Houston or even Hornets , if they gear up for tank, as they should.

Houston and Spurs simply play on west, so they have 13 competitive teams and they play 52 games against them ( well, minus each other ).

Spurs lost 15 out of last 16, you simply won't outtank team so bad as they are. It's not just they are tanking , they are talent depleated.

And Pop is going to retire probably after this year, in nba words, expect Victor to Spurs

[BadMofoPimp]

Magic have been rebuilding for 12 years now. So, what is a few more years, anyways?

[JF5]

14%

That's the percentage shot we get at Victor Wembanyanma if we got one of the worst records. That's it. That's what all of this "tanking" is for, really? They are Banking too much on such a small percentage shot at the superstar player.

That's not worth it man, to completely tank again and forgo free agency and trades and just rely too heavily on the draft. I'm not sure I believe Welman and Hammond have adjusted their management strategy to the new lottery odds.

The idea of a slow, steady rebuild won't work with the new lottery odds. That rule change should have encouraged teams to each adopt more aggressive management strategies like Miami who continually seek out players in the G league, Free agency and trades

Personally, I believe that if the Magic get Victor or Scoot then Weltham will then begin to consolidate assets and try to move other young guys for a star. Then they will roll with

Wembanyanma/Scoot
Paolo
Franz
*star we trade for*

And follow the same model the Suns made when they traded for CP.

But if you ask me they are banking too much on an outdated management strategy.

Its the asset allocation process. They want to have as many options when it comes to having the flexibility in improving the roster. If they end up with a top 1-3 pick. They can either draft a Stud prospect or they could flip it with all the other assets they have for a Star/Superstar caliber player without compromising or significantly purging the core of the team.

Free-Agency in the modern NBA is a dead market given teams want assets in return for their star instead of letting them walk. The only way you can grab Star players for the most part is via trade.

I know people hate this process but they'll most likely look like geniuses when the offseason rolls around. They've done a pretty good job the last 2 years with all the transactions/draft moves they've made. Now the Magic pretty much hold all the cards in building a team that they want in this situation when it comes to Cap-Space via Free Agency and Draft Capital.

[Magic_Kingdom]

There is zero reason for Orlando to compete this season. Their best player, and asset, is a rookie. 14% while missing the playoffs is still better than 11.5%, 9%, 7.5%, 6%, and 3.2% while missing the playoffs.

Bingo.

If you're not a team capable of making the playoffs, you're better off being the worst team in the league.

20 wins is a better outcome than 30 wins every single time.

Could it be a better outcome to win 20 games? Yes. Every single time? No. If the Magic finish with 20 wins and the best lottery odds, but get the #5 pick, is that a better outcome than winning 30 games? The answer to that question depends on 2 things: 1) how much does the #5 pick improve your team; and, more importantly, 2) what was the cost of trying to be worse, rather than better, for another season.

If the Magic defy the odds (14%) to win the #1 pick, the pro-tankers will claim victory. But the odds are much greater that it won't happen. And this is where I disagree with the pro-tank argument that there is no harm in trying, because you miss the playoffs either way. It's less about the number of wins, and more about the culture.

How long can you send a message to your players, coaches, fans and the media that you don't want to be competitive, before it starts seeping in and having a detrimental effect? Great teams have great cultures. Losing hurts. And young players have to learn how to win.

What will be the cost in free agency next summer when the Magic have money? Free agents may join a young, competitive team with a promising culture, but they aren't going to invest their career in a team that has been tanking for 3 years. What do you sell them on? Oh, this year will be different, we're ready to start trying now? Why would free agent believe that?

What's the cost to the development of Paolo, Franz and Suggs that the coach is a place-holder with no experience, there is no organization or discipline, and at least 6 rotation players miss every game?

Don't be surprised if there is no Phase 2. This is Welt's entire plan. Everyone saying "this better be the last year", did you think he would tank again after getting the #1, 5 and 8 picks in the past two drafts? Is he going to add shooting next summer, even though he's never done it in 6 years? Is he going to sign an impact free agent, even though he's never done it in 6 years and we are considered the dumpster fire of the NBA?

[MasterGMer]

To me, I'd rather level up than tank for a top pick. What is more exciting comes summer? Yes, tanking gets you a top pick. But which route will bring more value? If Franz and Paolo play the way they did last game, their value will increase tremendously. They may not be all star this year. But their upside is definitely clear that they are all star level players or even all NBA players. That is value brought to the team just like a top pick.

Also this young group has enough talent but the problem is this young squad doesn't know how to win consistently. That is what "Level Up" can bring to this team.

Plus the culture, the locker room and relationship between the coaching staff and players. Losing will only derail that.

All in all, winning quality games brings more to the team than tanking, period.

Let's level up!

[Knightro]

Could it be a better outcome to win 20 games? Yes. Every single time? No. If the Magic finish with 20 wins and the best lottery odds, but get the #5 pick, is that a better outcome than winning 30 games? The answer to that question depends on 2 things: 1) how much does the #5 pick improve your team; and, more importantly, 2) what was the cost of trying to be worse, rather than better, for another season.

If the Magic defy the odds (14%) to win the #1 pick, the pro-tankers will claim victory. But the odds are much greater that it won't happen. And this is where I disagree with the pro-tank argument that there is no harm in trying, because you miss the playoffs either way. It's less about the number of wins, and more about the culture.

How long can you send a message to your players, coaches, fans and the media that you don't want to be competitive, before it starts seeping in and having a detrimental effect? Great teams have great cultures. Losing hurts. And young players have to learn how to win.

What will be the cost in free agency next summer when the Magic have money? Free agents may join a young, competitive team with a promising culture, but they aren't going to invest their career in a team that has been tanking for 3 years. What do you sell them on? Oh, this year will be different, we're ready to start trying now? Why would free agent believe that?

What's the cost to the development of Paolo, Franz and Suggs that the coach is a place-holder with no experience, there is no organization or discipline, and at least 6 rotation players miss every game?

Don't be surprised if there is no Phase 2. This is Welt's entire plan. Everyone saying "this better be the last year", did you think he would tank again after getting the #1, 5 and 8 picks in the past two drafts? Is he going to add shooting next summer, even though he's never done it in 6 years? Is he going to sign an impact free agent, even though he's never done it in 6 years and we are considered the dumpster fire of the NBA?

I get what you’re saying, and at a certain number of wins you’d be correct in that there would be more value for the organization as a whole in that than tanking.

But when you say things like “How long can you send a message to your players, coaches, fans and the media that you don't want to be competitive, before it starts seeping in and having a detrimental effect? Great teams have great cultures. Losing hurts. And young players have to learn how to win.”

My counter to this would be that winning 30 games isn’t doing any of the things you’re suggesting. 30 wins isn’t doing anything for an organization’s culture.

People have talked themselves into this idea that it’s impossible to go from tanking (low 20s wins) to good (40+ wins) without a pitstop in 25-35 win range first and I just don’t agree with that.

[MagicFan101]

If the Magic does not go top-2 with its pick, I am hopeful the Magic trade out of the draft entirely for a competent starting-quality SG. There are many scenarios that create that. Orlando has interesting assets to create a real core of a team.

2021 was KNOWN by the “experts” to be the 5 player class and was another draft where Orlando had 2 lottery picks. Many here wanted the Magic to trade out of the second pick or try and trade up.

Anyone upset with the choice now???

How about we let the process play out and see if just maybe there are more than 2 players worth looking at?

[VFX]

Could it be a better outcome to win 20 games? Yes. Every single time? No. If the Magic finish with 20 wins and the best lottery odds, but get the #5 pick, is that a better outcome than winning 30 games? The answer to that question depends on 2 things: 1) how much does the #5 pick improve your team; and, more importantly, 2) what was the cost of trying to be worse, rather than better, for another season.

If the Magic defy the odds (14%) to win the #1 pick, the pro-tankers will claim victory. But the odds are much greater that it won't happen. And this is where I disagree with the pro-tank argument that there is no harm in trying, because you miss the playoffs either way. It's less about the number of wins, and more about the culture.

How long can you send a message to your players, coaches, fans and the media that you don't want to be competitive, before it starts seeping in and having a detrimental effect? Great teams have great cultures. Losing hurts. And young players have to learn how to win.

What will be the cost in free agency next summer when the Magic have money? Free agents may join a young, competitive team with a promising culture, but they aren't going to invest their career in a team that has been tanking for 3 years. What do you sell them on? Oh, this year will be different, we're ready to start trying now? Why would free agent believe that?

What's the cost to the development of Paolo, Franz and Suggs that the coach is a place-holder with no experience, there is no organization or discipline, and at least 6 rotation players miss every game?

Don't be surprised if there is no Phase 2. This is Welt's entire plan. Everyone saying "this better be the last year", did you think he would tank again after getting the #1, 5 and 8 picks in the past two drafts? Is he going to add shooting next summer, even though he's never done it in 6 years? Is he going to sign an impact free agent, even though he's never done it in 6 years and we are considered the dumpster fire of the NBA?

I get what you’re saying, and at a certain number of wins you’d be correct in that there would be more value for the organization as a whole in that than tanking.

But when you say things like “How long can you send a message to your players, coaches, fans and the media that you don't want to be competitive, before it starts seeping in and having a detrimental effect? Great teams have great cultures. Losing hurts. And young players have to learn how to win.”

My counter to this would be that winning 30 games isn’t doing any of the things you’re suggesting. 30 wins isn’t doing anything for an organization’s culture.

People have talked themselves into this idea that it’s impossible to go from tanking (low 20s wins) to good (40+ wins) without a pitstop in 25-35 win range first and I just don’t agree with that.

Let’s also not forget that it’s not like Orlando is choosing to play a bunch of washed vets over the youth.

Paolo, Franz, and Suggs are playing as much as they are able to. Orlando is currently earning their W’s and L’s.

The only thing the front office is doing to actively ‘tank’ is holding out guys due to injury much longer than actually needed.

1 off-season can completely change the record. I would also hope that there are more moves outside of drafting 2 rookies. This bearing in mind only if they believe the core to be sufficient.

I just don’t understand this group of fans that believe there is no grey area to the outcome of this plan. It’s not like the players and coaches are choosing to actively lose more games. They are trying to win, every single night. The roster just isn’t constructed yet in a way to where that is possible with the primary options being the youngest guys on the team.

People advocated for a tank after a decade of watching 3 role players struggle to make the playoffs and the inevitable first round exit. That’s far from what is happening here. The potential ceiling is astronomically higher.

It’s not like the FO pushes a ‘Magic’ button and decides the tank is over. Their moves would obviously indicate as much and they have shown us that they are far from done building this roster. Everything has been earned up to this point. This coming from someone that finds their first years extremely suspect.