Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[nate33]

Kelly Oubre listed at number 2 among shooting guards.

Yes, that is head scratching but what does it say about Brad? I don't see any other top tier players ranked that low. For context, these are the other 9 players ranked 110-120: Klay Thompson, Landale, Sengun, Alvarado, Monk, Portis, Vassell, Mobley, Banton, Moses Brown. In that group there is a promising young player with all star potential (Mobley) and the corpse of Klay. All other players....meh..

His offensive plus minus is similar to Paul George (around 11th vs 13th). His defensive plus minus is similar to Terry Rozier/Donte Divincenzo (who Steve Kerr said is the best perimeter defender). There seems to be a lot of noise in this stat especially the defensive plus minus- Kelly Oubre for instance is a full 3.5 points better than Alex Caruso.

Plus/minus (and regression analysis-based plus/minus, like RPM) is almost totally useless as a tool to gauge the defense of guards. So much of it is dependent on scheme, teammates and matchups. Who is switching onto whom? CJ McCollum is a terrible defender and he ranks 6th by this metric.

The numbers become a bit more meaningful at forward, and more meaningful still at center. At least those guys are more likely to be involved in a high quantity of defensive plays.

[payitforward]

Using ESPN's real plus minus (RPM), here is how our top players rank:

13. Porzingis (and 3rd among Cs).
20. Kuzma (and 2nd among SFs...he would be 5th among PFs).
97. Wright (and 20th among SGs...he would be 23rd among PGs)
114. Beal (and 25th among SGs...and 54th in Defensive RPM among SGs).
121. Morris (and 26th among PGs).

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm

All our other players have a negative RPM...with Corey Kispert next at 192. Goodwin is surprisingly the following at 202. And I say surprisingly as I would have expected him to rate positive and higher than Morris...

Apart from Goodwin, the other glaring result is Beal ranked at 114...

I know ESPN's RPM is often subject to criticism. But if we look at the top-10 players in RPM, I'd say most of them make sense: Doncic, Tatum, Curry, Jokic, Greek Freak, Embiid, Mitchell, Halliburton, Jaren Jackson Jr, Morant.

Sorry but Brad has to do much better, particularly defensively (at least in offensive RPM he ranks 13th among SGs). Quite depressing to think we are paying the 114th player in RPM the super max...

I love Kuz but any measuring tool that has him ranked ahead of Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, etc., and has Bam Adebayo at 80 (just below Sam Hauser) and the reigning rookie of the year Scottie Barnes at 155, is suspect.

This might be a snapshot of where players rank according to one standard but it's a questionable measurement of a players' real value.

Thing is... metrics like RPM don't actually "measure" anything.

[Kanyewest]

Speaking of Scottie Barnes- he had 4 Pts, 1-7 FG, 4 TO, -17.

[deneem4]

The Denver wizards should lead the 2nd unit with gafford and rui starts with deni…
It’s not hard to be competitive

[smoothSeph]

Can they just start Kispert already? Deni will never work with this lineup. 8 minutes into the game with everyone acting like he's off the court is insane.

[dckingsfan]

Can they just start Kispert already? Deni will never work with this lineup. 8 minutes into the game with everyone acting like he's off the court is insane.

This. Kispert is a much better fit with that first unit, IMO. When Wright comes back.

Wright, Beal, Kispert, Kuz & Porzingis fit together better offensively and defensively.

Morris, Goodwin, Avdija, Barton, Rui, Gafford - oops, that is a terrible second unit.

Wes needs to reduce his rotation. We saw that Gafford/Porzingis deserve time on the court together.

I don't think Wes will do this - he wants to be a players coach.

[Dat2U]

My current view of the Wizards roster in terms of contending. The 'xxx' represents where there is a need.

CE Kristaps Porzingis (3rd option) ... Daniel Gafford
PF Kyle Kuzma (4th option) ... Deni Avdija
SF xxx ... xxx
SG Bradley Beal (2nd option) ... Corey Kispert
PG xxx ... D. Wright/J. Goodwin/M. Morris

I give Kuz credit for improving. Still not great but playing the best of his career. Defending better too. Not as good as the raw numbers but his high motor on a generally low energy team is greatly appreciated.

Bottom line KP & Kuz are holding their own. Brad is down to highly overpaid solid starter status but still a bucket getter. Problem is there's no #1 option or leader on the team. Need a better shot creator than the ones we have simply put and quality 3 & D depth. At minimum another young healthy John Wall & Otto Porter Jr and we can start talking about being a fringe contender. But where do you find a near elite PG and a long armed defender that's a flamethrower from deep by the deadline when you can't trade any firsts and none of your recent draft picks have validated their selection? You can't. That's why tearing it down makes so much sense when there's a franchise changing prospect on the level of Shaq/LeBron available in the draft (even Shepp can't mess that pick up). When you consider Beal & KP's injury history, why wait for the inevitable? For all of payit's criticisms, KP is the reason were still only 2.5 games from the 4th seed lol. The moment he misses his 15-20 games however, the season will basically be over.

The opportunity is there to get value for at least half the roster. Beal, KP, Kuz, Delon, Monte, even Deni. Only ones I'd say are worth keeping are Corey Kispert, Johnny Davis & Jordan Goodwin. Time to stock up on draft picks and young guys other teams are willing to include to dump salary (Immanuel Quickley is a good start).

[tleikheen]

In this long losing streak the #1 fault and scapegoat for losses was Rui Hachimura who actually played when the Wiz were a winning team. We saw a lot of dog whistles on his intelligence and being a blackhole on a team that actually needs a pointgetter that can get pts efficiently. The #1 excuse for Rui not starting was Kuzma was the PF so Rui was beat out.
Yet game after game after game Kuz plays like a SF more than a PF. He takes 3's from deep and takes his man off the dribble with some of the best drives in the NBA. He doesnt play a PF's game.He's also been very vocal about wanting to run the offense through him .
Now Rui likes to drive to the basket too ,either powering his way to the rack or blistering the net with his midrange game.
We've seen Rui and Kuz can play good together. They'd make a powerful frontcourt with KP where their games look compatible together. Rui belongs to the core and actually should be a starter when he's back and healthy.
As is is we're being forcefed Deni who I definitely like and should be a core piece of the Wiz .but he is still shooting poorly and it shows when the Wiz cant compete offensively. He should be the 6th man ,not for his offense but for his all around game ,dribbling,passing,defense but most of all because he can play all positions other than Center.

This is who should be starting for the rest of the year:
PG) Jordan Goodwin,defense and overall fit
SG) Bradley Beal, still an offensive force
SF) Kyle Kuzma, hand him the keys
PF) Rui Hachimura, a bulldog and a guy who wants to score
C) Kristaps Porzingis,arguably the best player on the team now

6th man) Deni Avila, glueguy type of player
7th man) Montae Morris ,backup PG where he thrives at
8th man) Corey Kispert, play him like Kyle Korver
9th man ) Daniel Gafford ,limited athletic big man but can still be helpful defensively
10th man) Delon Wright,defensive energy guy for this yr only

[DCZards]

I don't see the offense being consistently run through Kuz. He made one comment along those lines that was clearly said in jest. Yeah, Kuz can initiate the offense occasionally but shouldn't be his regular role.

No way is Delon Wright this team's 10th man. He's an elite defender who needs to get at least 20-24 minutes per game.

[nate33]

In this long losing streak the #1 fault and scapegoat for losses was Rui Hachimura who actually played when the Wiz were a winning team. We saw a lot of dog whistles on his intelligence and being a blackhole on a team that actually needs a pointgetter that can get pts efficiently. The #1 excuse for Rui not starting was Kuzma was the PF so Rui was beat out.
Yet game after game after game Kuz plays like a SF more than a PF. He takes 3's from deep and takes his man off the dribble with some of the best drives in the NBA. He doesnt play a PF's game.He's also been very vocal about wanting to run the offense through him .
Now Rui likes to drive to the basket too ,either powering his way to the rack or blistering the net with his midrange game.
We've seen Rui and Kuz can play good together. They'd make a powerful frontcourt with KP where their games look compatible together. Rui belongs to the core and actually should be a starter when he's back and healthy.
As is is we're being forcefed Deni who I definitely like and should be a core piece of the Wiz .but he is still shooting poorly and it shows when the Wiz cant compete offensively. He should be the 6th man ,not for his offense but for his all around game ,dribbling,passing,defense but most of all because he can play all positions other than Center.

This is who should be starting for the rest of the year:
PG) Jordan Goodwin,defense and overall fit
SG) Bradley Beal, still an offensive force
SF) Kyle Kuzma, hand him the keys
PF) Rui Hachimura, a bulldog and a guy who wants to score
C) Kristaps Porzingis,arguably the best player on the team now

6th man) Deni Avila, glueguy type of player
7th man) Montae Morris ,backup PG where he thrives at
8th man) Corey Kispert, play him like Kyle Korver
9th man ) Daniel Gafford ,limited athletic big man but can still be helpful defensively
10th man) Delon Wright,defensive energy guy for this yr only

[tleikheen]

You know whats ignorant about the -10.2, is who he's stuck playing with ... a chucker in Barton who ignores Rui when playing with him. Picking one stat out when we watch all the games on League Pass is just that ,one stat while ignoring what we see and who we see playing that shows the phoniness of one stat statistics . Playing with a sad sack 2nd unit that passes even worst then the 1st unit will skew your performance and help the one stat wonder guys who ignore what we all see on League Pass. Maybe you can come up with one stat that shows your blame on losses for Rui on these last 10 games .

[payitforward]

Unless I'm missing something, according to you Rui Hachimura is...

a pointgetter that can get pts efficiently....

Given that Rui's FG% is substantially below average for an NBA PF, I truly don't understand how you can think that. The fact that he also gets to the line less often than average for an NBA PF also seems to cast doubt on your view. As does the fact that he shoots a slightly below average % from the line as well.

So... what is it I don't get? What makes you think Rui is an above average scorer? "a pointgetter that can get pts efficiently"?

Please explain.

[payitforward]

...This is who should be starting for the rest of the year:
PG) Jordan Goodwin,defense and overall fit
SG) Bradley Beal, still an offensive force
SF) Kyle Kuzma, hand him the keys
PF) Rui Hachimura, a bulldog and a guy who wants to score
C) Kristaps Porzingis,arguably the best player on the team now....

I'd be happy to start Rui over Kuz at the 4. Rui isn't good, but Kuz is awful.

For that reason, I also wouldn't want Kuzma to start at the 3. Start Kispert, who is playing a ton better than Kuzma.

Bring Kuz &, as you call him, "Avila" off the bench.

Will this make us better? Win more games? No, of course not -- it's just one more fantasy that there's a way to shuffle a deck of cards that will give you extra aces.

But, hey, at least it'll make you happy!

[payitforward]

You know whats ignorant about the -10.2, is who he's stuck playing with ... a chucker in Barton who ignores Rui when playing with him....

Really?
Respond to the following: Rui Hachimura is taking more shots per 40 minutes than in any previous season.

That's a fact. Please explain in the light of Rui being "ignored."

[FAH1223]

Goodwin is a keeper. 5 steals last night and another 6 tonight.

He should be converted to a full NBA contract immediately.

[tleikheen]

That's a fact. Please explain in the light of Rui being "ignored."

You dont watch the games do you ........ Ive watched alot of Denver games where Barton played before Washington ,he wasnt very good at passing the ball to Michael Porter Jr as well . Barton looks for his own shot and pounds the ball alot ,if you paid attn youd know that already.

[doclinkin]

You know whats ignorant about the -10.2, is who he's stuck playing with ... a chucker in Barton who ignores Rui when playing with him.

He's negative for his entire career. Scroll down to the 2-man line-ups and Rui is in the red no matter who he plays with.

21-22
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01/lineups/2022

20-21
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01/lineups/2021

19-20
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01/lineups/2020

Rui can score. He can look good doing it. He is talented. He does not have a feel for the game. No 'dogwhistle' in that unless you think people are innately prejudiced against Benin-Japanese players. Jordan Goodwin has not even a fingernail clipping of Hachimura's talent, but he shows up in the black in plus/minus because he has a superior grasp of the moment for every second he is out there playing.

[nate33]

Copying this from the game thread:

Considering we had no Barton, Beal, Morris, Rui and Wright. We had basically no bench and played the night before. Good effort. I also think it's time to move on from Monte Morris. Solid backup. bad starter. He's been shooting better lately and doesn't turn it over, but Goodwin is pretty special defensively. When Chase Hughes said it was the first time a Wiz had five steals in two straight games since Larry Hughes, I was thinking about my comment that Delon Wright was our best defender since Hughes, but not Goodwin has become that guy.

Wes should really start Goodwin at this point. It just makes so much more sense. Morris' reliable ball-handling will help out the second unit more since they have more PG-dependent players. The starting unit is full of versatile triple-threat guys and they don't need a pure PG. They need a defensive dog who can also hit 3's. Goodwin is perfect.

Also, if we are still following this insane plan of keeping together the "Big Three" of Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis, we're not going to have the luxtax room to pay both Wright and Morris next year. We may as well plan for the future and move one of them for an expiring contract while grooming a cheaper replacement.

[nate33]

You know whats ignorant about the -10.2, is who he's stuck playing with ... a chucker in Barton who ignores Rui when playing with him.

He's negative for his entire career. Scroll down to the 2-man line-ups and Rui is in the red no matter who he plays with.

21-22
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01/lineups/2022

20-21
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01/lineups/2021

19-20
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01/lineups/2020

Well, at least he is consistent!

It really is remarkable. Over 3.5 seasons, EVERY SINGLE player pair with a sample size of 275 or more minutes involving Rui has a negative on/off differential. 23 out of 23! (And soon to be 30 out of 30 after he plays a few more games.)

I'm not hating. And I'm sure Doc isn't either. But the pattern is consistent enough for these numbers to have real meaning. Rui may have a compelling skill set, but he clearly has not been effective in helping the team win. I'm hoping he can turn it around this year, but it's time to stop blaming circumstances and start recognizing that Rui himself is the problem.

[payitforward]

That's a fact. Please explain in the light of Rui being "ignored."

You dont watch the games do you ........ Ive watched alot of Denver games where Barton played before Washington ,he wasnt very good at passing the ball to Michael Porter Jr as well . Barton looks for his own shot and pounds the ball alot ,if you paid attn youd know that already.

LOL...!
You really are kinda comical, kid.

Will Barton was above average in assists every single year he played in Denver -- with one exception: in that year he was average in assists.
Did you know that? Did you even bother to look it up?

On his career, Will Barton has averaged about 19% more assists per 40 minutes than average for a wing.
Is that something you knew?

He's also above average in assists this year as a Wizard.
Were you aware of that fact?

How about this, of guys who've played, say, 100 minutes for the Wizards this year, how many are averaging more assists per 40 minutes than Barton?

Do you know the answer to that one?
You don't, do you?

Hey, maybe you should look it up! What do you think? Actual knowledge is a useful thing.
Nah, you'll never do it, will you? But, don't worry, we won't keep it a secret from you.

Only Monte Morris, Bradley Beal & Jordan Goodwin get more assists than Will.
But, you knew that, right?