RS vs PS production

[f4p]

i made a spreadsheet in like 2010 (maybe earlier?) that did just this for 75 of the greatest players, i think weighing everything by minutes since i was doing rate stats (PER, WS48, TS%). i think i picked the all-time top 50 and then just came up with 25 more. obviously misses all of the current players but i might try to dig it up. i remember it being tough to add new people so not sure it could be updated with newer guys. anyway, one interesting observation i remember. without the adjustment, nate archibald had the worst drop offs ever. after the adjustment, the worst drop offs were by...nate archibald. not a good spreadsheet for nate.

[70sFan]

i made a spreadsheet in like 2010 (maybe earlier?) that did just this for 75 of the greatest players, i think weighing everything by minutes since i was doing rate stats (PER, WS48, TS%). i think i picked the all-time top 50 and then just came up with 25 more. obviously misses all of the current players but i might try to dig it up. i remember it being tough to add new people so not sure it could be updated with newer guys. anyway, one interesting observation i remember. without the adjustment, nate archibald had the worst drop offs ever. after the adjustment, the worst drop offs were by...nate archibald. not a good spreadsheet for nate.

It would be nice to see if you can find it!

[falcolombardi]

Hi, I have been thinking lately about the best players with big drops in career averages from RS to PS. In many cases, it could be explained by on-court issues, but sometimes comparing career averages can be very misleading, because postseason sample isn't representative of their overall career sample.

This is especially true for two of the top 15 players ever who often hear criticism about their postseason play - Kevin Garnett and Wilt Chamberlain. Wilt Chamberlain played most of his postseason games in LA, even though it's only a small portion of his overall career. Meanwhile, Garnett played most of his postseason games as a Celtic, because he missed playoffs in some years during his prime and his postseason runs are short.

I want to use these two players to show flaws at comparing RS vs PS career numbers. Let's start with raw numbers:

Wilt in RS: 30.1/22.9/4.4 on 54.0 FG%, 51.1 FT% and 54.7 TS% in 45.8 mpg
Wilt in PS: 22.5/24.5/4.2 on 52.2 FG%, 46.5 FT% and 52.4 TS% in 47.2 mpg

At first look, Wilt's numbers took a notable hit in the playoffs. The problem with this comparison is that his RS scoring numbers are highly inflated by 1961-63 period, but he didn't play many postseason games in that span (only 3 in 1961, none in 1963). On the contrary, he played a lot of postseason games in LA when he was no longer a high volume scorer.

If we actually calculate a weighed RS averages, based on how many playoff games Wilt played each, the outcome would be notably different:

Wilt in RS (weighed): 26.8/21.8/4.7 on 58.5 FG%, 48.3 FT% and 55.4 TS% in 45.0 mpg
Wilt in PS (weighed): 22.5/24.5/4.2 on 52.2 FG%, 46.5 FT% and 52.4 TS% in 47.2 mpg

As we can see, the lower volume and efficiency is still noticeable, but the difference isn't as drastic as raw ppg can suggest.

You can also do it for 5 years "peaks":

1964-68 Wilt in RS (raw): 30.6/23.6/6.1 on 55.6 FG%, 46.8 FT% and 55.1 TS% in 46.2 mpg
1964-68 Wilt in RS (weighed): 29.8/23.5/6.3 on 58.2 FG%, 45.7 FT% and 55.5 TS% in 46.0 mpg
1964-68 Wilt in PS: 27.0/27.0/5.8 on 54.3 FG%, 44.2 FT% and 53.4 TS% in 47.9 mpg

You can do the same thing with KG, Robinson, Hakeem and pretty much all players that don't have a lot of postseason games during their prime seasons.

Do you think it's useful if someone wants to use career averages to compare RS vs PS numbers? This is not an attempt to make Wilt (or any other player) look better, but to show these averages in a better context.

Wilt also played a disproportionate amount of his playoffs games against all time great defenders like russel and thurmond. I imagine his adjusted to opponent def rating numbers would be a lot closer to the rs averages

[f4p]

i made a spreadsheet in like 2010 (maybe earlier?) that did just this for 75 of the greatest players, i think weighing everything by minutes since i was doing rate stats (PER, WS48, TS%). i think i picked the all-time top 50 and then just came up with 25 more. obviously misses all of the current players but i might try to dig it up. i remember it being tough to add new people so not sure it could be updated with newer guys. anyway, one interesting observation i remember. without the adjustment, nate archibald had the worst drop offs ever. after the adjustment, the worst drop offs were by...nate archibald. not a good spreadsheet for nate.

It would be nice to see if you can find it!

for the actual spreadsheet, i would have to figure out where i backed it up online. but for all of the results, see if this link works or not. it has all of the results. it's 10 years old so probably some outdated stuff or things i would write differently. keep in mind, all changes are percentages, so TS% going from 50% to 52% is a +4% change, not +2%.

https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/playoff-v-regular-season-performance-all-time-g-o-a-t-s-hakeem-goats-the-jazz.218892/#post-6799749